The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
William, what do you estimate Essential’s TPP to be with previous election preferences?
ABC radio were quite good giving the release a downbeat, real wage cut, line.
Asha @ #2 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:35 pm
About 52/48 (51.7 rounded up?)
William’s thread might calm down some of the nervous nellies, elections are won on seat numbers, not questionable overall polls
Loved firey Albo in the last question.
Loved firey Albo in the last question.
________
So did the audience!
Trafford10 at 1.28 (previous thread)
“…last three polls have the ALP’s PV at 38% then 34% now 31%. That is a bad trend, very bad.”
You might want to try comparing apples with, you know, apples. Each of those numbers comes from a different pollster. So, no trend line at all, unless you compare the numbers from the same pollster over several polls, then weight them for, frankly credibility.
To answer the question asked in the previous thread about what to do if IPSOS comes in tonight at 51-49, I personally advise plonking a big investment on the manufacturers of brown trousers.
Firefox
That post is a de facto ‘frist’.
If the LDP’s on-the-ground campaign across Queensland is anything like it is in Ryan, I think Campbell Newman might have a real spot of snagging a Senate seat. They have been very visible at pre-poll, with at least two or three volunteers at any one time, and seem to be doing a solid job of monopolizing the freedom / anti-vax vote in these parts – by contrast, One Nation and UAP seem to basically be invisible in Brisbane.
Here is the Essential Report question I find interesting that I mentioned in the previous thread;
https://essentialreport.com.au/questions/views-towards-re-electing-the-federal-coalition-government-4
Drill down into that graph by voting intention to see what those intending to vote for Indies think.
Albo was excellent. He deserves to be PM.
You can’t take results from multiple different pollsters who were out in the field around the same time and call that a trend.
People need to calm down – essential and resolve still put the alp in election winning positions.
Their primary is between 34 and 38 in all bar the 1 resolve and they are looking good
Loose Unit:
Cheers
jt1983 from the previous thread – snap re the DT question. It had a “set up” smell about it.
The Age online headline:
“My career is built on my word: Albanese says he’ll deliver tax cuts for the rich”
The thing about the NPC speech is you’re reliant on this media to report it fairly.
Lynchpin
Of course he does. Its just trying to get through to the thick headed punters to put the cross in the right box that is the problem.
James Massola on the front page of the Age online:
“If Jenny Morrison could meet 50.1 per cent of voters, Scott Morrison would be prime minister for life. ”
Pass the sickbag.
James Massola on the front page of the Age online:
James needs to wipe the brown mark off his nose
We need a government that won’t hesitate to fight far-right extremism
Over the weekend, an alleged white supremacist shooter killed 10 people – mostly Black – in a New York state supermarket in what authorities are labelling racially motivated violent extremism. This is yet another horrific act of right-wing extremist violence that has targeted minorities in white-majority Western countries over the past few years.
The shooter’s manifesto points specifically to the actions of the Christchurch killer as a direct source of inspiration and radicalisation leading him down a path of far-right conspiracy theories, racial hatred and white-supremacist extremism.
It chills me to my core that an Australian man who massacred 51 innocent Muslims in two Christchurch mosques little over three years ago has since inspired multiple mass killings and numerous other violent plots that were thankfully averted. But what is even more unsettling is that since Christchurch, there has been virtually no self-reflection – let alone action – on the part of Australian politicians, that one of our own not only committed the atrocities of March 2019, but has inspired even more extremist violence.
Over the term of the last parliament, I repeatedly stood up in the Senate to speak out about the horror of Christchurch and the need for reflection, accountability and action. On three separate occasions in question time alone I asked the responsible minister directly what Australian authorities were doing following the publication of the New Zealand royal commission report. I received very little in response.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7741742/we-need-a-government-that-wont-hesitate-to-fight-far-right-extremism/?cs=14258
Reckon something is going on with internal Lib polling in electorate of Grey that has Lib worried. Odds on Indi Liz Habermann now shortened to 3.60 from 4 and her opponent, Ramsey looking scared encouraging unhappy Libs to vote Labor! “My view is normally to people, if you can’t vote for [the] Liberal Party and I wish you would, vote for the Labor Party. At least it gives somebody the clear air to run Australia in the way that they promise to and not be compromised every step of the way.”
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101070090
The loose unit at 1:44 pm
Come on. You’re not living up to your name 🙂
“Nearly 6 million people have pre-polled or applied for a postal vote – that’s approaching half of all registered voters.”…. It looks like the voters can’t wait until Saturday to kick the Scomo Coalition mob out!
With regard to the broader polls results so far, and given the pollsters’ corrections since 2019, chances are that they will underestimate the ALP 2PP this time around (this doesn’t affect so much Essential, simply because they just don’t give a full 2PP)… Still, it clearly looks that the ALP is ahead.
So, the chances of a clear ALP win (with variable margin) are the highest, followed by a “hung parliament” (which I don’t give much credit to), and a Coalition win (which is just day-dreaming from the part of Scomo’s supporters). But then we have to add the very possible wins of the Teals against the Libs in particular (again with variable margin) for a total, quite serious bashing of the Coalition.
Three more sleeps…. tick, tock, tick, tock…. 🙂
Albo just gave it his best shot at Press Club. There might be things he could be better on but he was genuine
@firefox
Unfortunately the silent majority doesn’t share this view.
The beer drinking bogans and former factory workers of the rust belts around Boganville don’t even need promises that they’ll have more money. Merely owning and screwing over the liberals and minorities is enough to get their vote.
Alpo @ #23 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:55 pm
Who’s sleeping?
The loose unit at 1.44
(Great handle, if I haven’t mentioned prior…)
Even the ’31 ALP PV’ poll shook out at somewhere between 51 and 52 ALP 2PP – most likely an ALP win.
The panic here has been pathetic and, I’m sure, entertaining to Coalition-partisan posters.
Here is a bit more on the AEC’s recruitment issues and what that will mean for voting booths:
The AEC is today alerting voters in identified areas that recruitment difficulties may lead to a relatively small number of planned polling places being unable to open on election day.
Areas that are a cause for current concern are in the following divisions, with localities listed within this media release.
· Capricornia, Flynn, Kennedy and Leichhardt (QLD)
· Barker and Grey (SA)
· Durack and O’Connor (WA)
Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said the vast majority of the nation’s planned 7,000 polling places will be in operation
https://mobile.twitter.com/PRGuy17/status/1526768945532874752
I don’t know where this negativity comes from re:Albanese. Guy is a genuine powerhouse. It’s almost like some in the media want to invent a narrative and start screeching when reality intervenes. As far as a government minister goes, he has shown he’s better at that job than any of his opponents on the other side of politics. Anyone who has any interaction with him points it out.
I reckon he’ll be good if he gets the gig.
So another poll which shows a winning lead to Labor…..A final one for this outfit…….And they have been more conservative than most over the time….
What is becoming even more apparent from WB’s analysis that the across the voting TPP stuff tells one kind of picture, but what is happening on the ground in individual seats is saying something else…..
Might be a bit like the Howard win against Beazley but then, so much has changed…..
The Liberals, more so than Labor, cannot take much joy from the TPP on the one hand, and what is happening in selected, vulnerable Liberal seats in others….
Can we see a list of any reputable persons who are willing to call it for Morrison yet?….
This does not include the troll lot here who are well and truly flying their real colours……….
Katharine Murphy
@murpharoo
This has been a really productive near 80 mins. If you are weighing your choice on Saturday, you could do a lot worse than watch the replay of today’s
@PressClubAust
address and Q&A with
@AlboMP
Rnm1953 @ #24 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:55 pm
Best press club speech i’ve seen in a long while and really showed Albo as a real person. Press also gave him a good time and drew out some good answers. Hopefully gets good coverage tonight along with wages, and unemployment manages to stay 4…
mundo at 1.57
I recommend melatonin. 12mg of the stuff. Best to find a quack willing to prescribe – even better if you can justify compounding. Gotta get the good stuff.
Note – you must establish a stable routine regarding when you take it, along with a stable ‘Gees I hope I can get to sleep now’ time less than 2 hours after your fix.
In your case, alcoholic beverages in proximity of planned sleeping time are contra-indicated.
I got the previous election preferences TPP on the Essential poll at 51.2-48.8.
Jan
I heard it on 100.7.
Was just flicking through the stations in car ..it reported it as wage growth
Don’t tell me the press has decided not to behave as an undisciplined rabble.
@fred – outside of the pushy question from Clenell and the mildly alarming question from the DT – it was a pretty good outing by all.
If you can find this video, the look on the faces of everyone else in attendance is something
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/17/ukraine-will-get-worse-us-isolated-retired-russian-colonel-admits/
Snappy Tom @ #27 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 1:57 pm
I panicked until I looked at the underlying data-sets – the alp is ahead of where they were in 2019 and should win more seats.
Morrison’s reluctance to front up at the NPC seems to contradict the views of some here about his relationship with the CPG.
If you believe some here, the NPC would be the safest place in Australia for him.
The Liberal vote has slumped to record lows and ALP supporters are losing their minds.
@Mex … incredible…
We’re in for a fucking bizarre election night.
Almost every one of these seat and Senate polls points to the Labor vote being understated in the national polls.
Perhaps over-correcting for 2019.
Saturday is time to get on the beers (vodka/cc and dry in my case) – i’ve stopped caring whether labor will win or lose, my interest is in whether the polls are accurate and which poll gets closest (if any).
I see, and feel, some nervousness about this last week in polling.
Then I think logically.
Lib/Nat on 77 presently, ALP 69.
Let’s say Goldstein and Wentworth go indie: 75
Kooyong falls to the Teals: 74.
The ALP haven’t done anything.
Then they pick up one seat in Qld from the Libs: 73
2 from NSW and 1 each from Vic/Sa: 69.
The Libs get one or two seats from the ALP: 71
Greens get one more seat from the ALP (of course)
ALP now have 72
Let’s say that is all that ever happens.
Libs get first shot (I believe since they were last in govt) on 71. Katter + Zali + Sharkie + Spender + Daniels all go “yep, Libs, you’re in, but you must deliver on climate change, and we will watch you like a hawk.”
Now the Libs are pulled on one side by the Nats who hate the earth, and the Teals who love it more than the Nats.
SfM has to go, and in fact, they may demand that the Pentacostals are cleared out (to what you can do).
The Libs will go “yeah sure honeys” and get the govt. Then they reneg on pretty much EVERYTHING, and it pisses the Teals off.
Meanwhile, the ALP spend time talking with the Teals over time and the Teals switch to the ALP, who have 73. They get 2 GRN + Wilkie + Sharkie (?). They have a go and do what the Teals and indies want as well as what they wish for.
Look, maybe, maybe not, but I don’t know how the LNP is going to get around the Teals holding the keys to power and demanding things that they absolutely loath.
*those more knowledgable will probably slice this apart!
Anyone think Morrison would weep the loss of JFrydenberg?
The only contender considered Coalition leadership material.
“Barney in Tanjung Bungasays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:08 pm
Morrison’s reluctance to front up at the NPC seems to contradict the views of some here about his relationship with the CPG.
”
If you believe some here, the NPC would be the safest place in Australia for him.”
Not all the press club, but pretty much all of their employers
THe key takeaway of Albo’s speech and responses in the channel 9 papers is that he will “deliver tax cuts to the rich” apparently.