The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Beguiled Again
Ronald Ryan’s arrest at Concord
Talking to nurses who were there, no one seems to have noticed that there were 50 armed detectives pretending to be promenading in Hospital Rd at the time. The Telegraph even claimed that there were snipers in the trees overlooking the hospital shop. There are photos of the deployment and Ryan in cuffs in the recently published history of the hospital.
The poor student nurse who was used as a decoy to attract Ryan and Walker was given a reward of $10,000 but suffered severe guilt and PTSD when Ryan was hanged. There were rumours that there was an underworld contract out on here and senior nurses slept outside her door in the nurses’ home for several months
Thanks William.
“happyezsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:13 pm
I see, and feel, some nervousness about this last week in polling.
Then I think logically.
Lib/Nat on 77 presently, ALP 69.
Let’s say Goldstein and Wentworth go indie: 75
Kooyong falls to the Teals: 74.
The ALP haven’t done anything.
Then they pick up one seat in Qld from the Libs: 73
2 from NSW and 1 each from Vic/Sa: 69.
The Libs get one or two seats from the ALP: 71
Greens get one more seat from the ALP (of course)
ALP now have 72
Let’s say that is all that ever happens.
Libs get first shot (I believe since they were last in govt) on 71. Katter + Zali + Sharkie + Spender + Daniels all go “yep, Libs, you’re in, but you must deliver on climate change, and we will watch you like a hawk.”
Now the Libs are pulled on one side by the Nats who hate the earth, and the Teals who love it more than the Nats.
SfM has to go, and in fact, they may demand that the Pentacostals are cleared out (to what you can do).
The Libs will go “yeah sure honeys” and get the govt. Then they reneg on pretty much EVERYTHING, and it pisses the Teals off.
Meanwhile, the ALP spend time talking with the Teals over time and the Teals switch to the ALP, who have 73. They get 2 GRN + Wilkie + Sharkie (?). They have a go and do what the Teals and indies want as well as what they wish for.
Look, maybe, maybe not, but I don’t know how the LNP is going to get around the Teals holding the keys to power and demanding things that they absolutely loath.
*those more knowledgable will probably slice this apart!”
I think that is a pretty good stab at that scenario , Happyez, though I would say that even with 74 seats the Coalition would form a very fragile government.
William Bowe @ #35 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 2:03 pm
Can anyone remind me what it was last time?
“THe key takeaway of Albo’s speech and responses in the channel 9 papers is that he will “deliver tax cuts to the rich” apparently.”
***
Labor have already sided with the Coalition to give tax cuts to the rich and have committed to going through with them should they win the election.
WB: “• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. ”
This is what I’m still saying about the Teals. With the ALP polling at 13% they, in what is probably the #6 ranked Teal seat, at least half of those Chaney PV’s are coming from ALP voters strategically switching. That’s at least 15K voters. It could be higher even. 20K. No way it’s lower. That 32% for Chaney had to come from somewhere, and is isn’t all from the LNP.
That is playing out in at least 10 seats. 150K or more voters disappearing from the ALP primary. 4.75M people voted for the ALP as primary in 2019. That’s 3.2% of the ALP vote, and about 1.5% of all voters. From seats they never had a chance of winning. “They will just flow back to the ALP” I hear. And yes, they will. But not in polling. Polling will allocate back to 2PP likely at 60/40, because that was the previous election independent preference allocation. And sure, this independents happen all of the time, but they don’t happen like the Teals are happening ALL in Liberal held seats. That means a hit to the ALP of 1.5 points off its primary, and about 0.8% of its 2PP. In polling. In reality, it’s 1.5 back to the ALP. At least. If it’s 20K from each seat, increase all of these numbers by one third.
So outside of Teals seats which they never had any chance of winning, the ALP primary could be as much as 2% higher. It’s 2PP could be too. As more people switch to Teals, this effect becomes more and more pronounced.
For those waiting for IPSOS, don’t get too excited. Personally I think IPSOS is too bouncy.
The last 3 results have been 42:51(7%UD), 45:55, 43:57. When IPSOS reported the 43:57, Newspoll reported a 46:54 over the same sampling period, Essential 45:49(6% UD) that sampled a few days earlier.
What’s worse is that the last IPSOS(43:57) had the LNP primary at 29%. Does anyone seriously believe that LNP primary is at 29%? I know that some might want it to be there but I doubt that’s where it is.
My take is that your best bet is to wait for Newspoll.
Dy/Dx @ #57 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 2:22 pm
That’s the safest (and most long running poll).. if newspoll has the alp at 52,53 or 54 then that’s an improvement on 2019.
“Firefoxsays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:22 pm
“THe key takeaway of Albo’s speech and responses in the channel 9 papers is that he will “deliver tax cuts to the rich” apparently.”
***
Labor have already sided with the Coalition to give tax cuts to the rich and have committed to going through with them should they win the election.”
As uncalled for as your response was, your green-tinted glasses take is actually far more accurate than the Age/SMH headline
Dy/Dx says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:22 pm
For those waiting for IPSOS, don’t get too excited. Personally I think IPSOS is too bouncy.
The last 3 results have been 42:51(7%UD), 45:55, 43:57. When IPSOS reported the 43:57, Newspoll reported a 46:54 over the same sampling period, Essential 45:49(6% UD) that sampled a few days earlier.
What’s worse is that the last IPSOS(43:57) had the LNP primary at 29%. Does anyone seriously believe that LNP primary is at 29%? I know that some might want it to be there but I doubt that’s where it is.
My take is that your best bet is to wait for Newspoll.
中华人民共和国
I second that motion
Pretty much… trust in Newspoll.
So…In the last few days…Morgan 57-43, Resolve 52-48 and just now (estimate) Essential 51.2-48.8.
With Ipsos and Newspoll to come, the opinion polls have more or less fallen into a traditional pattern with the MOE in sight at this point in the election cycle…..
While Newspoll is likely last cab off the rank, I would be surprised if it does not fall in a similar range…..
Still waiting to hear which person of substance (that is credible) is yet to call it for Morrison…….
However, this time it is the LNP fighting to get more than may be on offer……
The seat polls – for what they are worth for the LNP – do not look all that promising but seat polls being what they are, who really knows?
deliver tax cuts to the rich ?
He means and respects people who are Aspirational.
i.e having or showing a desire to achieve a high level of success or social status
Kudos to Albo for stumping up to the NPC today and answering questions. It underlines the character differences between Albo and the Bullying Coward.
Labor should repeat almost nothing else except “your wages are going backward under Scomo” from now till 6pm Saturday. It is accurate. It is Scomo’s fault, and it cuts through.
Again @Tricot… we’re in for a wild night on Saturday.
We’re going to have to wait for the poll with 17,000,000 respondents.
Labor should highlight how the lnp has 30+ billion in uncosted election promises.
I reckon Coalition may well be re-elected with an increased majority in a major anticlimax. Even Deves might win.
Pi at 2.22
This is why I have questions about the usefulness of national 2PP – the vote is splintered like never before, and the splintering trend looks likely to continue in future elections.
ALP PV will likely only recover a little from 2019
LNP PV looks like losing about 5%
Greens may gain a little
Teals and other centrists picking up from ALP AND LNP in a minority of LNP ‘heartland’ seats.
Do we need a 2PP of ALP/Grn/Teal-ish vs LNP/UA/ON?
BK @ #66 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 2:27 pm
What’s the MOE on that one? 🙂
Labor on track for majority govt. Not long now. The actual result will be fascinating when comparing to the polls.
Freya Stark @ #68 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 2:30 pm
Can you tell me where to get some of what you are on – it must be good.
Full video here.
Anthony Albanese, Federal Opposition Leader, addresses the National Press Club
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQ62cEywZXk
I think the main difference is the format at the NPC – the press are seated at tables and stand only to ask questions. Also having a senior journalist in Laura Tingle keeping order would help, along with the composition of the audience being the more experienced journalists.
On the other hand, the press pack of hyenas seems to be comprised mainly of young journalists eager to make a name for themselves and scrambling over each other to be the one who scores the gotcha trophy.
“Pisays:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:22 pm
WB: “• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. ”
This is what I’m still saying about the Teals. With the ALP polling at 13% they, in what is probably the #6 ranked Teal seat, at least half of those Chaney PV’s are coming from ALP voters strategically switching. That’s at least 15K voters. It could be higher even. 20K. No way it’s lower. That 32% for Chaney had to come from somewhere, and is isn’t all from the LNP.
That is playing out in at least 10 seats. 150K or more voters disappearing from the ALP primary. 4.75M people voted for the ALP as primary in 2019. That’s 3.2% of the ALP vote, and about 1.5% of all voters. From seats they never had a chance of winning. “They will just flow back to the ALP” I hear. And yes, they will. But not in polling. Polling will allocate back to 2PP likely at 60/40. That means at hit to the ALP of 1.5 points off its primary, and about 0.8% of its 2PP. At least. If it’s 20K from each seat, increase all of these numbers by one third.
So outside of Teals seats which they never had any chance of winning, the ALP primary could be as much as 2% higher. As more people switch to Teals, this effect becomes more and more pronounced.”
Well said again, Pi.
This seems to be missing from much of the analysis out there. Essential at 1 point transfer from the Greens to Independents in PV which drove down the 2PP estimate presumably due to the use of last election preference flows
Thanks The Revisionist
My first go at contributing projections.
“the Coalition would form a very fragile government.”
I agree. But how will the LNP actually hold that one together beyond a few weeks? They are corrupt as f, and the FICAC, which the Teals will demand, is like plutonium tea to the LNP.
I would expect the Teals to hold their ground and not give in to shenanigans. Look at Monique Ryan at the forum next to Fryd. She tore him a new backside so comprehensively.
I can’t predict what would happen if we get to this point, but it will be wild.
The ALP as majority or minority with one or two others (Bandt or Wilkie) will be professional and get on with stuff.
The LNP will be a skip fire inside a train wreck inside a lava flood inside a Putin mindspace lol.
What’s the MOE on that one?
______
Ask Donald Trump.
The NPC speech was polished and albo had the look of a future p.m – hopefully come saturday he is elected.
Leroy says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:32 pm
Full video here.
Anthony Albanese, Federal Opposition Leader, addresses the National Press Club
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQ62cEywZXk
Wrong one I think, that is in January
So far this morning Albanese has:
1) reaffirmed an ironclad commitment to huge tax cuts for the richest Australians, after stressing all campaign that he just couldn’t do so many more badly needed things because of the budget;
2) stressed his commitment to austerity and said he’ll start by cutting community grants;
3) stressed his determination to compromise with the Liberals on major policy issues, after spending the whole rest of the campaign stressing how appalling and how committed to bad ideas they are.
I can’t remember a Labor campaign hapless enough to be running around coming out with stuff like this three days out from election day since Latho in 2004. After a campaign in which the main issue has been cost of living issues for ordinary people, it’s like they don’t even want to win.
National press club 2 hours ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMVZR610tZ8
Kevin Bonham’s calculation of last-election 2pp is 51.6, just fyi
JFC Rebecca …
frednk – thanks, I posted the wrong one!
LT has a go for Morrison for not being willing to show up.
BK @ #78 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 2:34 pm
Trump says “bigly”.
Pi and The Revisionist
If I understand your logic…
1)Labor would ‘appear’ to go backwards in ‘Teal’ seats as part of the Teal vote comes from strategically minded Labor voters.
2) But, polling (aside from that cherry-picked here by LNP partisans) suggests a swing TO Labor on both PV (soft) and 2PP (bigger).
3) Therefore, in ‘non-Teal’ seats, Labor is likely to be doing very well in terms of a quite strong PV swing and even stronger swing on 2PP.
If that’s your argument, sign me up!
[‘A former Liberal senator given a $500,000-a-year job on a key tribunal that reviews government decisions is being counselled for the second election in a row about displaying campaign signs for Josh Frydenberg.
Karen Synon, deputy president of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal’s social services division, has a large billboard backing Frydenberg in the front yard of her Kew home, The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald confirmed on Tuesday.
Frydenberg is in a tight competition against independent candidate Monique Ryan and the electorate of Kooyong has been plastered with signs for both candidates.
The AAT’s code of conduct says members must act impartially in their public and private conduct and avoid anything that could lead to an apprehension of bias.
“Members should avoid any activities, interests or associations which may undermine public confidence in the impartial performance of their Tribunal responsibilities,” the code of conduct states.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/political-tribunal-appointee-in-hot-water-over-frydenberg-election-sign-20220517-p5alze.html
This isn’t a case of apprehended bias; it’s actual. She must resign.
That’s the argument Snappy Tom!
Shellbell says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:48 am
What is doing at Concord Oval at the moment?
—————————————————————-
Can’t tell you what is happening there now.
But as the resident historian on PB, I can tell what was happening in the early 1840’s when Concord Oval played a role in the development of responsible government in the British colonies.
In the late 1830’s, in what is now Ontario and Quebec,there were rebellions against the British governors by “patriotes” who wanted a more representative government.
The rebels were easily overcome by the redcoats and were put on a series of showcase trials. Twenty-nine men were executed and eight exiled to Bermuda.
Public opinion, however, would not tolerate the summary execution of the remaining rebels. An alternative punishment–transportation to Australia– was therefore suggested by the new lieutenant-governor of Upper Canada, Sir George Arthur, who had spent the previous 13 years as lieutenant governor of Tasmania.
On 15th February, 1840, after rotting in the hold of their ship for five months, 91 English-speaking rebels from Upper Canada (Toronto), were disembarked at Hobart Town bound for Port Arthur.
The 58 French-speaking Canadians from Quebec were destined for Sydney and a stockade on Parramatta Road which is now Concord Oval. They were political prisoners not criminal convicts.
The Canadians spent 20 months breaking stone and dragging it onto Parramatta Road, which was then under construction. They were also engaged in cutting wood blocks for paving the streets of Sydney.
In 1844 all the prisoners, including those in Van Diemen’s Land, received full pardons. Two had died while in Sydney. Remarkably, all but one of the 55 French-Canadian rebels, made their way back to Canada.
In 1970, I accompanied Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau on a Pacific tour. His only engagement in Sydney was to unveil a monument to the exiles at Cabarita Park, a few meters from the baths where I learned to swim.
The monument was subsequently moved to nearby Bayview Park closer to where the rebels stepped ashore on their way to the stockade at Longbottom, now Concord Oval where my high school held its athletics events.
That should explain Canada Bay, Exile Bay and France Bay on that section of the Parramatta River.
Mate of mine told me he had voted for Kylea Tink in North Sydney. I said why not Renshaw, he said he voted strategically and early and didn’t think she had a shot, kinda regretting his decision.
This I think will be the story of the pollsters. Labor voters deliberately reducing their PV in Teal seats to oust the Liberals. What that means in current polls I don’t know but The underlying sentiment is to remove the Libs.
Q is whether normal lib voters who hate Morrison and dont have a teal still vote Lib.
I see Birmo is being wheeled out on the wages data. Morrison squibbed it by having his presser before the announcement and Josh is probably too busy handing out HTVs at a Kooyong pre poll with the living corpse that is John Howard.
Poor old Alfred E Birmo. Always wheeled out to serve up the shit sandwiches for this govt.
happyez says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:13 pm
I see, and feel, some nervousness about this last week in polling.
Then I think logically.
Lib/Nat on 77 presently, ALP 69.
——————–
The LNP start on 75.
“ It’s almost like some in the media want to invent a narrative and start screeching when reality intervenes.”
Almost? ALMOST?!?!
WTF!
It’s always “yawn” when people criticise Labor missteps until Labor lose the election. I’d love to know what genius thought “I’m going to save the budget by for a start cutting community grants” and “I’m going to give huge tax cuts to the richest people, not ordinary voters” were brilliant things to convince undecided voters three days out with a close race.
Hi L’Arsey.
I am sure that we would all appreciate your learned commentary on the effect of the following on voting in Fowler.
“• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.”
Go for it, you (fo)unt you!
edit: spelling
Msg from my daughter Albo interview!
https://www.tiktok.com/@icacplz/video/7098633723796589825
steve davis says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 1:48 pm
Lynchpin
Of course he does. Its just trying to get through to the thick headed punters to put the cross in the right box that is the problem.
________
Why tell the “thick headed punters” to make an informal vote?
D says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:13 pm
“Anyone think Morrison would weep the loss of JFrydenberg?
The only contender considered Coalition leadership material.”
Only contender? But, but ….. what about Dutto?