Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7

Essential Research joins in on the tightening race narrative, although it gets there through preferences rather than primary votes. Also featured: many seat polls, one of which has independent Kate Chaney leading in Curtin, and even polls for the Senate.

The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.

My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.

Other polling news:

The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.

Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.

Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.

• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.

• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.

Senate news:

• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.

The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.

• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.

Non-polling news:

Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.

Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.

• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7”

Comments Page 16 of 20
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  1. jt1983 @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:23 pm
    “@Griff – with affection, get your hand off it

    @Beaglie – No polls tonight.”

    Oh, I am not worried. Too little and too late 😉

  2. @Rakali – I completely agree… but this is not a reasoned or especially rational reaction.

    I COMPLETELY understand the reaction and the need to protect oneself… but the reaction is a signficantly overblown one to me at this stage.

  3. ‘C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 8:59 pm

    Good.

    Vladimir Putin has lost his 42nd colonel in his war with Ukraine.

    Col Denis Kozlov, 40, was the second commander of the 12th Separate Guards Engineers of Keningsbersko-Gorodokskaya Red Banner Brigade to die in the conflict.

    He had replaced Colonel Sergei Porokhnya, 45, who was killed in Ukraine on March 14.

    Kozlov “heroically died on May 11 when guiding a pontoon ferry to make a further advance of the troops”, said a local news outlet in Russia’s Vladimir region.

    He was among Russian troops to perish in a failed advance across the Siverskyi Donets River when he and his men were ambushed by a devastating Ukrainian attack.

    He was posthumously decorated with the Russian Order of Courage, and laid to rest in his hometown Murom.

    His death – the 42nd known colonel to perish in the war – highlights the huge toll suffered by Putin’s top brass.

    The attrition rate is around one colonel every two days.’
    ===============================
    KIA to WIA ratio varies enormously but a ratio of 1:4 would be a reasonable sort of starting guess. Some wounded are permanently incapacitated. Others might take some time to recuperate. Others might be able to return to service quickly. Let’s say that half wounded do not return.

    So the real rate of attrition might be three times the KIA rate: a reduction of around 120 colonels.
    I have no idea how many they started with but would guess at least ten times that: 1200 colonels.
    So plenty more where they came from.

  4. Nath: “what will happen to mundo if Labor gets elected? His habitat will be destroyed. This furry creature exists in a unique clime, and in a niche role, collecting cold water and pouring it over the Labor party.”

    Whats one more extinction…Bulldoze that habitat

  5. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:21 pm

    Upnorth:

    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:05 pm

    [‘Talking of GG is he off with BB at the moment?’]

    I think so lest dear GG would be on fire tonight. And wait for dear
    BB’s return, both of whom have tested dear WB to the limits. In the absence of vitriol, both deserving of their temporary sin-binning?
    中华人民共和国
    I always like you the best Mavis 🙂

  6. citizen says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:27 pm
    For any masochists out there, the UAP official Launch is on Ten from 9:45 Canberra time for one hour.
    ______________________________
    Whats not to like capped 3% interest rates for 5 years AND $180 per fortnight increased pension payments?

  7. PB would make a great resource for social psycology. This is really a good example of ‘instrument blindness’, sorry been watching too much air crash investigation, where you discount all the data and go with the perception bias based on the ‘affect’ of 2019 an the don’t trust the miracle evidence like the polls, despite the polling being adjusted and working as per State polls.

    Of course, this could be all bull and Miracle 2.0 could be just around the corner. Either way, would be a super case study.

  8. I voted early yesterday afternoon (North Sydney). After giving it a lot of thought I went with 1 Kylea Tink (Teal), 2 Labor (and 10 Liberal). I chose on the basis that on balance, it seemed very likely that Ms Tink will finish second. With a strong flow of preferences from Labor and Green, she might just get over the line and eject the sitting Liberal. Were she to finish third, my vote will help Labor.

    It was a rare sunny day in Sydney, the polling station was busy but not excessively so. Labor, Liberal, Teal, Green and TNL workers (including the TNL candidate) were handing out HTVs. I was asked by the polling official whether I had a valid reason for voting early. I said “probably”. She said she needed a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ so I said ‘yes’ and was handed ballot papers. Wasn’t asked for a reason.

    I was in and out in about 15 minutes.

  9. “He’s a pretty classy bloke that Simon Holmes A’Court isn’t he. Calling a former Prime Minister “ the angel of death” in some tweet.”

    ***

    Howard is a mass murdering war criminal. He deserves no respect whatsoever.

  10. Andrew_Earlwood @ #711 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:09 pm

    “ The Liberal ones are just awful”

    But for all their ascetic awfulness, effective. That annoying ‘earworm’ quality. Really cuts through.

    Admit it, you, like most of the rest of the country, mute it as soon as you see the first frame of that execrable ad in the ad break. I know we do at our house. Then we have a sniping session about it or go and do something else.

  11. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #757 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:31 pm

    PB would make a great resource for social psycology. This is really a good example of ‘instrument blindness’, sorry been watching too much air crash investigation, where you discount all the data and go with the perception bias based on the ‘affect’ of 2019 an the don’t trust the miracle evidence like the polls, despite the polling being adjusted and working as per State polls.

    Of course, this could be all bull and Miracle 2.0 could be just around the corner. Either way, would be a super case study.

    People don’t understand data or statistics – this is nothing like 2019 (the polling error would need to be even greater).
    https://armariuminterreta.com/2022/05/17/2019-sized-polling-error-would-still-see-labor-ahead/
    Even with a 2019 size error or greater the alp comes out ahead..

  12. Chad Loder @chadloder
    ·
    4h
    NEW: Australian MP candidate Katherine Deves praised and promoted Kiwi Farms, a far-right forum linked to the deadly Christchurch mosque attack, newly-discovered archived tweets show.

  13. Steve777: I think you chose the correct path. A tactical vote. I dont think the ALP could get up in NS. The preferences from Tink will only flow at best 50-50 if she finishes 3rd

  14. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:31 pm

    PB would make a great resource for social psycology. This is really a good example of ‘instrument blindness’, sorry been watching too much air crash investigation, where you discount all the data and go with the perception bias based on the ‘affect’ of 2019 an the don’t trust the miracle evidence like the polls, despite the polling being adjusted and working as per State polls.

    Of course, this could be all bull and Miracle 2.0 could be just around the corner. Either way, would be a super case study.
    中华人民共和国
    Oh I thought many times William could get another PHD out of this mad house – with colours.

  15. Sky News host Andrew Bolt says Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese has given reason to believe he might lead a “boring but basically decent government”

    Grudging endorsement by Bolt.

  16. The loose unit @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:33 pm

    Yes and no I would say. As opinions are a dynamic construct, in theory a historically large and late swing would allow for the polls to be accurate and the Coalition to be returned.

    But one can say that Labor would much prefer to be in where they are now as opposed to where they were at this point in 2019.

  17. Holdenhillbilly @ #762 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:35 pm

    Chad Loder @chadloder
    ·
    4h
    NEW: Australian MP candidate Katherine Deves praised and promoted Kiwi Farms, a far-right forum linked to the deadly Christchurch mosque attack, newly-discovered archived tweets show.

    Could Scott Morrison PLEASE disendorse this candidate!?!

  18. Upnorth:

    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:29 pm

    [‘I always like you the best Mavis ‘]

    You’re only saying it because it’s true. Anyway, it’s Pepsy for him.

  19. subgeometer @ #575 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 7:52 pm

    Hard Drive?

    Storage for PCs are all SSDs now except if you need multi terabytes

    SSDs are even harder than disk drives. All that the ‘hard’ means is ‘not floppy’. My first 1980 Sirius desktop had 2 x 1.2Mb 5 1/2 inch floppies.

    And what do we suppose that the D in SSD might stand for? No disk in there at all.

    I have a 4Tb SSD hanging off one of my USB3 ports. 8 Tb seems to be the current max.

  20. zoomster @ #767 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:38 pm

    Sorry folks – trying to get a photo of lizzie’s scattering place up with no success.

    Hints??

    Confessions provided me with a workaround which I used successfully, though you may not want to.
    1. Save the image.
    2. Post it on your Twitter account.
    3. Copy Image address on Twitter.
    4. Post it here with #image.jpg appended to the image address.

  21. Glad to hear you’re all stocked up and ready to go Evan. I have a 6 pack a 500ml cans of a cold frothy beverage, a good bottle of Barossa Shiraz, a bottle of fizzy white wine, and some Amarula just in case.

    So am prepared for all outcomes.

  22. If that kid that Morrison tacked had just strayed on the ground and screamed in agony until the ambulance took him away. Morrison’s career as a politician would have been over, Labor would have romped in on Saturday.
    See that’s whats wrong with education these days, kids not thinking on or off their feet.

  23. The loose unit says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:33 pm

    People don’t understand data or statistics – this is nothing like 2019 (the polling error would need to be even greater).
    https://armariuminterreta.com/2022/05/17/2019-sized-polling-error-would-still-see-labor-ahead/
    Even with a 2019 size error or greater the alp comes out ahead..
    ___________________________-

    Thats what I mean, instrument bias, all pointing one way but refuse to believe even when improved, with the added bonus of the echo chamber effect, 2019 would be interesting to contrast too.

    Just an idle thought as i’m an ideas man, even my Dad said I was an ideas man when I stuck the broom end to the hose for Fathers day.

    Might be some idle $$ somewhere for a research project, but given the cuts to social sciences i would be pushing it to find anyone with some spare, probably worth a conference paper or two.

  24. I honestly didn’t know early voting was a thing before this election, or maybe that it was a special thing you had to officially apply for as an invalid or something. Have they advertised it previously as much as this time around?

  25. Apparently the urgency re the Quad is the US President’s travel plans – ie it suits his travel itinerary and the Australian PM is expected to fit in with his travel plans.

    I guess they could ahead with the meeting without us and just tell Australia what was decided?

  26. “Australian MP candidate Katherine Deves praised and promoted Kiwi Farms, a far-right forum linked to the deadly Christchurch mosque attack…”

    If true, that’s got to be a deal breaker.

  27. The polls are wrong.
    They are wrong to the same magnitude as 2019, but in the opposite direction.
    Only the politically invested have taken part in the polling.
    Last time, the uninvested knew they hated Shorten. This time they know they hate Scomo.
    Antony will call it at 8.42 pm, but the outgoing pm won’t concede for two weeks.
    The hatred for Scomo is visceral. For Shorten it was below the surface.

  28. @ Firefox

    this $20,000 grant to “lift all the houses in flood prone areas up on stilts” idea sounds great…

    until you try and put it into practice..

    A girl I work with who lives in northern NSW had a metre deep flow of water through her house in the recent floods.. her house is already raised 1.2m of the ground. she now wants (has been advised) to raise it to atleast 2.4m..

    she is already able to access a grant from the NSW government for around $20,000 to do it.. as part of the flood relief assistance. her bank has lent her $150,000 for repairs.. insurance company found a nice little clause that said it was “rising water” and thus she was not covered. yes, the insurance company’s are absolute “see you in the nt’s.”…

    but to be allowed to do it all it has to be approved by the local council..

    current wait time for this approval?.. an utterly ridiculous 12 months!!.

    in the meantime her house is unliveable because it has essentially been gutted.. it had “black water” through it so its internal walls have been pulled out.. the two brand new bathrooms she reno’d only 2 years ago have to be ripped out, the kitchen is gone and there is no power as the power company wont turn it back on until the internal walls are back in and a new meter (which are apparently very hard to get at the moment) is installed.

    so what does she do?.. she cant start repairing all the interior of the house until after its lifted (if she does finally get approval to do it) as the potential for twisting/movement in the process of lifting could damage any repairs/renovations..

    and all her neighbours are in exactly the same situation..

    they are all living in tents in their backyards!.. and have absolutely no clue as to when they will ever get to move back into their homes..

    they need more than a $20,000 sugar hit..

  29. Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:43 pm

    Last year you tacked on how it would provide a framework for understanding COVID related public opinion and vaccine hesitancy you opened up a whole new vista for funding 😉

  30. BTRProducer says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    Glad to hear you’re all stocked up and ready to go Evan. I have a 6 pack a 500ml cans of a cold frothy beverage, a good bottle of Barossa Shiraz, a bottle of fizzy white wine, and some Amarula just in case.
    So am prepared for all outcomes.

    But are you prepared for detox

  31. BTRProducer at 9.41

    Having once lived in Bondi Junction, I have a strong commitment to chardonnay. Current fave: Tempus Two Wilde Chardonnay (Hunter Valley, of course!)

  32. MikeK says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:49 pm

    BTRProducer says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:41 pm

    Glad to hear you’re all stocked up and ready to go Evan. I have a 6 pack a 500ml cans of a cold frothy beverage, a good bottle of Barossa Shiraz, a bottle of fizzy white wine, and some Amarula just in case.
    So am prepared for all outcomes.

    But are you prepared for detox
    中华人民共和国
    Stay drunk

  33. zoomster says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 9:49 pm

    lizzie’s final resting place…
    中华人民共和国
    Thanks zoomster you made PB a beautiful place tonight.

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