Three items of seat polling intelligence emerged over the weekend, none of which I’d stake my house on:
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports a uComms poll of 831 respondents for GetUp! shows independent Zoe Daniel leading Liberal member Tim Wilson in Goldstein by 59-41 on two-candidate preferred and 35.3% to 34.0% on the primary vote, with Labor on 12.5%, the Greens on 8.9% and an undecided component accounting for 4.6%. It should be noted that the campaigns are clearly expecting a closer result, and that uComms is peculiarly persisting with a weighting frame based entirely on age and gender, which was common enough before 2019 but has generally been deemed insufficient since.
• Andrew Clennell of Sky News yesterday related polling conducted for the Industry Association of 800 respondents per seat showed Liberals incumbents trailing 58-42 in Robertson and 53-47 in Reid, and Labor leading by 56-44 in Parramatta and 54-46 in Gilmore, both of which the Liberals hope to win, and 57-43 in Shortland, which has never looked in prospect. The polling provided better news for the Coalition in showing the Liberals with a 57-43 lead in Lindsay and the Nationals trailing by just 51-49 in Labor-held Hunter. Clennell further related that “similar polling conducted earlier in the campaign also shows the government behind in Bennelong and Banks”. A fair degree of caution is due here as well: no indication is provided as to who conducted the polling, and its overall tenor seems rather too rosy for Labor.
• By contrast, local newspaper the North Sydney Sun has detailed results for North Sydney from Compass Polling, an outfit hitherto noted for polling conducted for conservative concerns that has then been used to push various lines in The Australian, which suggests independent Kylea Tink is running fourth and the threat Liberal member Trent Zimmerman faces is in fact from Labor’s Catherine Renshaw. The poll has Zimmerman on 34.9%, Renshaw on 25.0% and Tink on 12.4%, with Greens candidate Heather Armstrong on 15.0%. The online poll was conducted on May 6 from a sample of 507.
Speaking of staking houses, a fair bit of the electorate-level noise of the late campaign has related to where candidates claim to live for purposes of their electoral enrolment. The ball got ralling when The Australian reported that Vivian Lobo, the Liberal National Party candidate for the marginal Labor-held seat of Lilley in Brisbane, appeared not to live within the electorate at Everton Park as claimed on his enrolment. Labor’s demand that Lobo be disendorsed – always a challenging prospect after the close of nominations – was complicated on Saturday when Labor’s star candidate for Parramatta, Andrew Charlton, blamed an “oversight” for his enrolment at a Woollahra rental property owned by his wife a month after they moved to the electorate he hopes to represent.
The Liberals have naturally sought to maximise Labor’s embarrassment, with the Daily Mail quoting one over-excited party spokesperson calling on Labor to refer Charlton to the Australian Federal Police, as Lobo had been by the Australian Electoral Commission. But as the AEC’s media statement on the issue noted, Lobo has actively identified the Everton Park property as his residential address on his enrolment and nomination forms, potentially putting him in the frame for providing false or misleading information to a Commonwealth officer, punishable by a maximum 12 months’ imprisonment and $12,600 fine.
By contrast, Charlton’s is a sin of omission: failing to update his enrolment within the prescribed one month time frame after changing address, punishable only by a fine of $222 and in practice hardly ever enforced. There remains the question of why he was enrolled in Woollahra rather than at the Bellevue Hill property where he and his wife were living before their recent move to North Parramatta, but it’s difficult to see what ulterior motive might have been in play.
Now a new front has opened in the seat of McEwen on Melbourne’s northern fringe, where the Liberals are hopeful of unseating Labor member Rob Mitchell. Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports today that Labor has asked the AEC to investigate Liberal candidate Richard Welch, who lives 50 kilometres from the electorate in the Melbourne suburb of Viewbank but listed an address in Wallan on his nomination form. Welch claims he had been living separately from his family in Wallan at the time of his nomination, but moved to his own property in Viewbank just days later after his landlord sold the house and terminated the lease.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15
“The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces are also creating reinforced concrete structures in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.[33] Russian trenches and concrete shelters are indicators that Russian forces seek to establish and defend permanent control over the occupied areas. ”
Hmmmmm…..daS Ruskie digging in for along haul around there then?? Be interesting to see what this means. 🙁
@Arky – having spent a lot more time in Queensland, the rule seems to be Queensland swings late – which is one of the reasons why it’s so hard to poll accurately.
Latest friendly jordies is excellent and underlines my argument that the parliament should define hate speech and not evil scum from News Corp.
‘imacca says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:53 pm
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15
“The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces are also creating reinforced concrete structures in Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.[33] Russian trenches and concrete shelters are indicators that Russian forces seek to establish and defend permanent control over the occupied areas. ”
Hmmmmm…..daS Ruskie digging in for along haul around there then?? Be interesting to see what this means. ‘
=====================
There are persistent reports that Putin will annexe Kherson (pop before the war over 300,000) et cetera after a faked referendum. Concrete creates strong points and increases the costs on attackers but it also reduces the number of troops required to hold the line.
A poll in North Sydney.. looks cactus for Zimmerman
Tom McIlroy
Tom McIlroy
Political reporter
May 16, 2022 – 6.03pm
A new poll in the key battleground seat of North Sydney shows teal independent Kylea Tink on track to finish a strong second against MP Trent Zimmerman, setting up a preference fight with the moderate Liberal.
Both major parties had suggested the Climate 200-backed challenge could have led to an unexpected result in the three-way contest with Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw.
But a new Redbridge Group poll, commissioned by investor Simon Holmes à Court’s Climate 200 group, showed Mr Zimmerman with 33.3 per cent of the first preference vote.
Ms Tink had first preference support from 23.5 per cent. Dr Renshaw is at 17.8 per cent in the poll, while 7.5 per cent are undecided.
The poll also names the Greens’ Lynne Saville and all other minor party candidates.
The Redbridge automated phone and computer-aided interview poll of 1267 voters in North Sydney, completed between May 3 and May 14, was conducted by former Labor Party official and Redbridge boss Kos Samaras. It has a margin of error of 2.3 per cent
The poll asked respondents who they would preference higher between Mr Zimmerman and Ms Tink. More than 51 per cent nominated Ms Tink, and 17.2 per cent nominated Mr Zimmerman..
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/north-sydney-poll-shows-teal-preference-fight-looms-20220516-p5alpj
@Arky
You are right! I have been following Aussie election, and most of the leaked seat polls… And none of them is from QLD?
Rnm1953 @ #1264 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:33 pm
Here are some suggestions, some better than others, of how to approach Morrison’s interview style:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Gish_Gallop#How_to_respond
Whoever mentioned Rob Priestly in Nicholls? Well the someone has just gone feral and sent out texts claiming he was endorsed by Dan Andrews .
https://twitter.com/voices4nicholls/status/1526145341090717696?s=20&t=4–1gp8PmJrYZ0ixL5BD9g
If Leichardt is the current wall, Labor pick up 10 seats. This does not include the Teal invasionary forces.
Shaping up like a bad night for the Libs.
Boerwar,
I’m sure Labor’s shadow A/G Dreyfus has frequently spoken of his support for Collaery in the past, but you never know with lawyers. They can talk out of both sides of their mouths.
I’ve said it before, seat polls are useless. Might as well throw darts. Ignore them. Or take them with a pillar of salt — particularly ones ‘leaked’ at this late stage of the campaign.
Meanwhile, Sharri Markson’s prediction on Sky After Dark earlier tonight had me ROFLMAO.
Patrick Bateman says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:52 pm
Lars, surely even the most peace and love hippy wouldn’t be cutting defence spending right now?
citizen, there is a certain cult-like fervour to it.
______________________________
$80bn a yr, is a noice peace dividend for leaving the US alliance and being neutral between US/China.
Wasn’t there earlier “leaked” polling from the NSW Liberals portraying a grim picture for some seats? Perhaps this latest is from the Morrison camp and designed as you say, to imply that Deves is resonating in W Sydney.
I find it hard to accept that the voters of Warringah, who tossed out Abbott, would now warm to somebody equally as obnoxious.
Those percentages are not like for like.
The wasted spend on the Afghanistan War ($10 billion) is in that inflated Coalition figure.
$45 billion on the frigates which should probably be scrapped is in that figure, the $5.5 billion on the subs is in that figure, The $1.3 billion on the drones is in that figure and so is the $3 billion on the Taipan choppers.
@Lars
Bob Hawke fought the ALP base to keep the joint facilities…. No Australian PM is going to leave the alliance with the US.
Which party is “leaking” and “dropping” all of the internal polling, and looking for a switch in narrative every 24 hours?
That will go a long way to explaining who is in control, steady and confident.
‘Drongo says:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:57 pm
Boerwar,
I’m sure Labor’s shadow A/G Dreyfus has frequently spoken of his support for Collaery in the past, but you never know with lawyers. They can talk out of both sides of their mouths.’
================================
The people who are being protected with the bastardy are senior Liberal political figures and people in the oil and gas industry.
“ Defence spending as a % of GDP in 2021: 2.09%
Defence spending as a % of GDP in 2013: 1.59%
Cutting defence spending back to RGR levels could free up $80bn per year.”
This risible trope:
1. most of that ‘cutting’ was in fact due to GNP growing faster than the budget forecast at the time the Deefnce budget was set.
2. the rest was mainly due to the scale down in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq and the planned reset of the ADF with initiatives like Plan Beersheba.
3. The JSF acquisition program was kicked down the road in 2011/12 (but only because Lockheed Martin had reset the whole program in the US in 2009-12 and hence they weren’t ready for the RAAF to convert from 2012-13 as initially hoped) but Gillard-Smith did commit to acquiring Growler electronic warfare fighters in that year.
In substance, the only real tangible defence procurement thing that Swan managed to get kicked down the road in 2011-13 was the next phase of the future submarines program: probably only a $50 million save in any one of those last years of the Gillard regime.
Furthermore, your maths is broke. A 0.5% of GNP cut to the Defence budget would only yield about $8-11 billion in saves in any one year. Not $80 billion.
I had an ominous feeling in the last few days of 2019, I don’t have it this time.
IdesofMarchsays:
Monday, May 16, 2022 at 8:57 pm
Whoever mentioned Rob Priestly in Nicholls? Well the someone has just gone feral and sent out texts claiming he was endorsed by Dan Andrews .
https://twitter.com/voices4nicholls/status/1526145341090717696?s=20&t=4–1gp8PmJrYZ0ixL5BD9g
——————————————————–
We’ve tracked it back to the NSW nats, the whois data for CMS links to Joe Lundy, and his name appears in the authorisation at the bottom of the linked site.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lnFblVQkigY
The new FriendlyJordies,
it’s 26 minutes of him ripping into Jane Albrechtsen.
It’s fun. Things are looking up for the left.
I’m still working on making this look as nice as I can with the limited formatting capability in PB. But for now, these are a couple of summaries of all your guesses up until 19:19 tonight. (7:19pm)
==========================================
Federal Election-Guesses — TPP (FINAL), May-16 19:19
Median: ALP 53.1 to 46.9 LNP
Mode: ALP 52.5 to 47.5 LNP
Mean: ALP 53.2 to 46.8 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 31
Federal Election-Guesses — SEATS (FINAL), May-16 19:19
ALP/LNP/KAP/GRN/CA/Teal/other
80/ 62/ 1/ 1/??/ ??/ 8 Median, May-16 19:19
78/ 60/ 1/ 1/??/ ??/ 8 Mode, May-16 19:19
80/ 63/ 1/ 1/??/ ??/ 8 Mean, May-16 19:19
====================================
Regarding the Election Guessing Game
* The drama and immediate focus is on-the-night (OTN) results.
* But I’ve decided to open up guesses for a FINAL result as well.
* Rules again:
– Closest to the pin is the winner in each category.
– Tie break is whoever guessed it first.
– Times are taken from pollbludger.
– The ABC and or A.Green provide the official results.
– Update your guesses as often as you like, knowing you slip down the tie-break ranking when you do.
* Categories are:
– PV (FINAL)
– TPP (FINAL)
– SEATS WON (OTN)
– SEATS WON (FINAL)
– Time that Winner is Declared OTN
– Time that Loser Concedes OTN
* I will:
– Do my best to capture and interpret anything you post.
– Pick the middle if you give me a range (eg 52%-54% converts to 53%).
– Assume you mean FINAL if you don’t specify OTN (On The Night).
– Post summaries/updates as time allows.
* Please:
– Keep it simple.
– Check my summaries/updates for errors.
– Don’t yell at me when I get it wrong.
– Let me know if you have suggestions.
– Have fun.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Australia was worth 1330.90 billion US dollars in 2020, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of Australia represents 1.18 percent of the world economy. source: World Bank
I’d say 0.5% of GDP works out to be 65bn US or roughly 80bn Aussie every year.
Boerwar, differ all he may: the gig’s up come Saturday, circa 19:27.
Hi all, sorry if it’s been said but anyone know what the next official poll to drop is. Been a while since a resolve or ispos?
Prince planet – the final polls were 51-49 and concern from serious psephs that there was herding occurring. The LNP were calm in both message and internal polling, without being specific. There were definite indications.
This time, the polling is 54-46 and the LNP looking like a mess, leaking every day and trying to shift narrative every 24 hours scrambling for a foothold. Meanwhile Labor is quiet.
No predictions from me this time.
FWIW, my roughie is Flinders with a retiring member (Hunt), a Teal in ‘office of profit under the crown’ trouble and a candidate who is culturally Indian. Snowball would add some ‘spice’ to parliament’s WASPish look.
OH has been watching Masterchef and another show afterwards in another room. The only sound I heard was the “bucket” ad on high rotation and louder than the show itself.
Cmon Steve 777, not even for North Sydney ? 🙂
Watching SfM vs. Leigh Sales, SfM still struggles to keep his smirk under control.
BoerWar: There is nothing Australian governments can do to stop the Reef dying because what is killing the Reef is happening overseas.
The reef is dying because of OUR actions over the past 150 years. We don’t get to blame the neighbours, with far less privilege than we have, because we burned our house down.
Boerwar: “The question becomes, should we waste billions on pretending that we are saving the Reef or should we do something else with the funds?”
If there is something the can be done, it will cost money to do it. Billions in the context of what is going to be spent on the carbon to renewables transition is a footnote. The primary concern needs to be the protection of the environment that can be shielded, and the support of the people that live there and have livelihoods dependent upon what it is today.
When we get our house in order, then we get to look at others. Hopefully we’ll be able to help our neighbours advance without making the same mistakes we’ve made.
Higgins and grey have dollars allocated mainly all at $6 price ,come on bring home the bacon.
Re TB @9:10. North Sydney looks like a Liberal Retain. Labor finishes second and Teal preferences split evenly , pushing the Liberal over the line.
Patrick Bateman
My peace and love view is that international development assistance should at least match defence spending, so if that means cutting the latter to even it out because no one wants to spend more on supporting developing countries like, say, the Solomon Islands, then count me a radical peacenik.
Edit: Cut out the hugs and kisses. Not because I don’t mean it, but because it may have come across as sarcastic or something. Which I didn’t mean it to be.
Ryan in QLD. Should be closer than last time. Greens and Labor neck and neck on PV. Julian looked dishevelled at the Brookfield show. Greens Libby Watson-Brown has staged an excellent campaign. But the libs have only lost once since 1972 – in 2001! So a big ask.
Addie @ #1246 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 8:23 pm
The lady I’m thinking of was from somewhere in the Qld cane fields, I think.
Freya Stark @ #1093 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 7:31 pm
Who is this idiot that keeps talking about a snap repeat election!?! It has been explained to them multiple times that it’s just not possible!
Nor is it likely to eventuate that way even if their fever dream of a result becomes a reality. You just have to look at how Julia Gillard, with the aid of Manager of Government Business, Anthony Albanese, held on for a full term of government. Now, a Prime Minister Albanese in a similar position would never throw caution to the wind, or throw in the towel like that and commit what would surely be political hara-kiri, with added Seppuku sauce!
So, my unanswered question from last night remains: are any posters here employed by or collecting fees from betting companies, or using this site for ‘native advertising’?
Nicholls is a seat to watch, the Nationals down there must be worried, a fair amount of dirty tricks to undermine the independent Rod Priestly are going on
Drongo @ #1324 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 9:09 pm
To my eyes there seem to be a lot more Indian_Australian candidates this election.
Evan @ #1336 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 9:19 pm
Rob Priestly?
@Rewi… I truly… truly hope not.
@citizen
I’m quite confident that every rotation of that “bucket” ad costs the Coalition another several hundred votes.
Rewi @ #1338 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
None that I know of. But, then again, who cares? Only some people give creedence to the betting markets having any predictive powers.
Rewi @ #1335 Monday, May 16th, 2022 – 9:18 pm
It’s a question that’s almost impossible to answer! I can only speak for myself with an obvious ‘No’, but as for others, if not everyone answers you can never have a reliable or truthful answer to your question.
Lars von Trier:
Well you would say that wouldn’t you…
@alias If you still are looking at Hasluck odds – I would suggest taking a look at the Swan, Pearce and Hasluck multi. Odds of 3.25 there. Given that Hasluck falls, it’s very likely (90% or more) that Swan and Pearce will too, in my view. That’s just my advice on what would be better value if you intend on betting – not saying you should bet on it.
It was about equal Labor, Liberal and UAP ads on Lego Masters Finale tonight. Interestingly, the UAP have released a new ad promising a $150 rise in the Pension. Future Prime Minister Craig Kelly made that promise so you gotta believe them. 😆
I despise betting and won’t work for any betting company.