The Australian reports on an unusually timed release from Newspoll, although the field work period from the poll of Tuesday to Friday is only slightly different from the usual Wednesday to Saturday. The poll finds no change since last week on two-party preferred, with Labor retaining a lead of 54-46 from primary votes of Labor 38% (down one), Coalition 35% (steady), Greens 11% (steady), One Nation 6% (up one) and United Australia Party 3% (down one). Scott Morrison is up a point on approval to 42% and down two on disapproval to 53%, while Anthony Albanese is down three to 38% and up two to 49%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 44-42 to 43-42. The sample for the poll was 1532.
citizen @ #936 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:55 pm
Also, https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/ is your friend. What he’s saying reminds of that line by Latham recently implying he could use any word he likes because only he will know what he means by it. MPs don’t get to chose the adjectives for their actions. That’s the voter’s job. Progressive?
Katherine Murphy:
‘…
Campaigns have seasons. We’ve entered the final season of this political cycle, the season where the soft votes firm. Strategists say the contest is much closer than the published polls suggest. I don’t think they are lying, so the way soft voters break will determine the outcome, pushing either party into a win, loss or minority government.
…’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/13/if-the-metropolitan-moderates-are-wiped-out-next-week-the-liberals-must-learn-the-right-lesson-from-defeat
@Upnorth
中华人民共和国
Whilst Politically incorrect these days my old man loved the Carry On movies.
________________
(cue Kenneth Williams as Julius Caesar in ‘Carry On Cleo’…)
“Infamy! Infamy! They’ve all got it in for me!”
Quite a pleasant day doing the prepoll HTV thing.
I was even pleasant to the Lib candidate, and the Phon and Palmer peeps. (Clive has Lab before Lib on his HTV here so that’s an extra layer of security at least in Macarthur – I realise that’s more for show though and he’s running a Lib pref harvesting operation where it really matters).
Dr Mike came by for a couple of hours. As my missus said he’s not super confident. Says he doesn’t expect to know the final result until the Wednesday after. Probably just 2019 scars but who knows.
Anyway the sun came out, got plenty of happy Labor peeps making it clear who they were backing, and even the rusted on Libs were generally amiable enough.
Democracy sux. But it’s infinitely better than the alternatives.
On a very unscientific feelpinion in just one admittedly strongish Labor part of the seat it again seemed to be going about 60:40 our way, so not much change going purely by gut. There doesn’t feel like there’s any danger of an upset loss here, but the big anti Lib swings in the polls isn’t being noticeably expressed by people as they’re heading in. They might be quietly executing Scomo in the booth, but they’re not making a song and dance about it.
‘Strategists say the contest is much closer than the published polls suggest’.
Don’t they always say this? If you are miles ahead, you don’t want your team to become complacent. Conversely, if you are well behind you don’t want to demotivate your supporters.
Labor is well ahead and has been in every single poll in the last few months. Maybe a little clawback in the final week but that’s it.
This is especially for PuffyTMD and Douglas and Milko and anyone else who loves Jack Russell Terriers!
https://youtu.be/IIFc3yy2iKU
Lars Von Trier @ #946 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 8:00 pm
Hi L’Arse
We are all awake to your concocted pustular discharges, and your unctuous simulated rapport, your smarmy fake sincerity, your studied spurious concern, your odious false empathy, your dissembled trumped-up compassion, your nauseating sham bonhomie.
At least GG has a f***ing camel, and his faith.
Here’s a song for you two, and nath, of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdVjVtpr55M
I’m just back from the scattering of lizzie/Zoe’s ashes.
I was late – I got lost in the back roads behind Marysville, winding my way bewilderedly along roads lined with mountain ashes and tree ferns. Turned out I was on the correct road all along, but my hesitations made me 20 minutes late.
About eight people were huddled under umbrellas on the bank of a mountain stream. I was the only non- family member there and was introduced as representing Zoe’s ‘twitterverse’ friends.
Barry, her son, pried open the casket with a swiss army knife and – before we realised what he was doing – walked upstream and tipped it into the water. A plume of ash washed down towards us, and we haphazardly threw flowers in its general direction.
We stood there, in the kind of English drizzle Zoe would have remembered from her childhood, listening to the sounds of the bush and watching some young trout jump, saying very little in hushed voices.
I had five pages of notes, the collated comments from here, which I’d intended to read snippets from. I gave them to the family, and asked them to read them, to get an idea of how much loved Zoe was and how much she is genuinely missed.
I’ve asked for some photos of the spot to be sent to me, so that I can post them here.
I know – members of my family have told me so! – that a round trip of over 7 hours to spend half an hour standing in the rain on a creek bank seems like a wasted day. But I feel very, very privileged to have been there, Zoe’s guest, representing you all.
‘Historyintime says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:12 pm
‘Strategists say the contest is much closer than the published polls suggest’.
Don’t they always say this? If you are miles ahead, you don’t want your team to become complacent. Conversely, if you are well behind you don’t want to demotivate your supporters.
Labor is well ahead and has been in every single poll in the last few months. Maybe a little clawback in the final week but that’s it.’
——————————-
I would not have a clue, really. Has the shy tory meme morphed into a soft vote?
zoomster
I am most grateful. Thank you.
Thanks Zoomster!
Griff says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:04 pm
hla @ Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:29 pm
Very fine taste. Splurgundy shall be on the menu next week, in addition to the port.
——————————————————————–
‘Splurgundy’ is a great name – I’ve not heard that one before. I shall use it hereafter.
I have a bottle of Rockford’s black shiraz (a sparkler) already in my fridge for the big day! My spouse has a bottle of Fonseca for afters, though not for me as I have to pick up no 1 child from a long day’s work with the AEC (7am to 11pm she tells me).
yabba says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:14 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #946 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 8:00 pm
________
Bully for you.
Thanks zoomster – definitely not a waste.
@Upnorth.
Mind you, but I live in the fairly safe seat of Bonner with a margin of 7.4%
Thank you zoomster!
Thank you zoomster. Thankyou.
z,
Legendary story.
Your personal values shine.
Thank you.
Thankyou so much for attending zoomster
Zoomster,
Thank you so much!!
That was a Herculean effort which I’m sure the family would have appreciated.
You did Lizzie and us proud.
Thank you for making the effort on behalf of the rest of us, zoomster. lizzie/Zoe would have appreciated it. 🙂
Upnorth:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:55 pm
[‘You are indeed wise.’]
You’re too kind. Tingle’s one of the few journos game enough to call out Morrison’s sick ploys. I mean, why would a professed Christian put an already marginalised group at further harm save for what he erroneously(?) thinks will give him a better chance for a second term? Morrison’s not a leader: he’s a highly manipulative and dangerous zealot. And that nearly half the population intends to vote for his party says a lot about them. He has the moral compass of this man:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=svUyYzzv6VI
”A teal protest vote risks stripping the Liberals of progressive MPs who change the nation: Kean
The NSW treasurer writes that Australian voters should consider the US Republican Party and the damage done to centre-right parties when their progressive voices are removed.”
There seems to be a change in tactics to call for would-be Teal supporters among people who normally vote Liberal to have mercy on the Moderates. Even Labor voters are being urged to preference Liberals ahead of Teals by Newscorp’s David Hildebrand, who claims to be a Labor supporter (could have fooled me).
Well, as they say in the classics, “He that lieth down with dogs shall rise up with fleas”. The Liberal “moderates” in Federal Parliament, after a quarter century plus of knuckling under to the hard right of their party, all have a very bad case of fleas. Every voter who doesn’t want a continuation of the incompetence, mendacity, corruption, cruelty and downright nastiness of the Morrison Government needs to vote Labor, Teal or Green and put the Liberal candidate last.
Zoom, thank you.
Murphy…
“Strategists say the contest is much closer than the published polls suggest. I don’t think they are lying,”
& if asked for proof they would say “ feel it in the waters”.. another useless cover all bases article
Steve777 says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:30 pm….
…. Even Labor voters are being urged to preference Liberals ahead of Teals (by David Hildebrand, who claims to be a Labor supporter (could have fooled me).
This is not true. Labor would prefer a Lite to a Lying Reactionary every time.
C@tmomma @ #975 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 8:28 pm
Plus 1
max @ #637 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 3:49 pm
PM Penny Wong. 2025 or 2028?
Sceptic,
There is nothing concrete that says what everyone says is going to happen is not going to happen.
Except, last time!
Wong is the the Senate. Also would be subject to the biggest racist campaign ever if she switched to the reps.
‘I would not have a clue, really. Has the shy tory meme morphed into a soft vote?’
No doubt there are some genuine undecided and quite a few ‘learners’. But it’s hard to see why they would break en masse for the LNP in light of the campaign.
I go with (adapted for the current context )’ Richard Nixon’s inimitable comment at the deathknock of the 1984 Presidential election – ‘Well I wouldn’t want the ranch on Reagan, but I wouldn’t want the outhouse on Mondale’.
Zoomster, I join with others in thanking you very much for paying your final respects to lizzie. I was only thinking today that the drizzle we had on the Gold Coast all day would be like that she experienced in the Old Dart. Thanks again.
Zoomster
Your day was definitely special. Sounds a wonderfully peaceful spot for Zoe. Thankyou
Mavis says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:30 pm
Upnorth:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:55 pm
[‘You are indeed wise.’]
You’re too kind. Tingle’s one of the few journos game enough to call out Morrison’s sick ploys. I mean, why would a professed Christian put an already marginalised group at further harm save for what he erroneously(?) thinks will give him a better chance for
a second term? Morrison’s not a leader: he’s a highly manipulative and dangerous zealot. And that nearly half the population intends to vote for his party says a lot about them. He has the moral compass of this
中华人民共和国
In my younger days I had the pleasure of meeting Ms Tingle. It was during the Camelot of Keating. She was as sharp as a “Gibson Desert” Gibber but as beautiful as Gwendolyn. Upnorth was particularly struck. But my, shall we say Northern peculiarities, precluded any meeting of minds.
The election could well be closer than published polls suggest because the swings could well be in the wrong places for Labor – strongly to it in safe Liberal seats and small or even against it in the outer suburbs and regional centres. Something like that happened in 1998, although back then it finished 51-49. The fact that Queensland isn’t swinging to Labor is a concern. Morrison’s persistence with what might be called the “Deeves strategy” suggests that the plan might be to go for the bogan vote at the cost of some traditional heartland votes as a way to fall across the line.
We shall see next week.
Upnorth @ #897 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:28 pm
Or Bluepill
Thank you Zoomster.
Greensborough Growler says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:36 pm
As they say it’s the vibe.. it’s the vibe, looking at Dutton & Morrison’s media performances today.. they are shattered, no pep no bounce no confidence at all. Even Dutton couldn’t conjure up his usual frothing at the mouth venom.
谢谢 Thank you Zoomster
northern peculiarities? I thought u liked rugby…lol
Arky at 6.44pm
I flip the top copy of the DT over so the sport shows everytime i go to my local sshops.
Less eyes on their pathetic juvenile ” Lorax-esque ” headlines, the better.
The shortest path to victory for Labor
Currently Labor holds 69 seats if you include Hawke as nominally a new Labor seat.
Add Melbourne and Clarke {Wilkie and Bandt} as reliable minority government supporters – combined 71 votes. That means Labor must win five seats net from the Coalition to be assured of a minority government win (net 76 seats).
Going for low hanging fruit, gaining Bass, Braddon, Chisolm, Boothby and Swan does the job for Labor (74 plus 2 others = 76).
Labor 74 Coalition 71 Others 6
Any Labor seat losses to the Coalition (eg Gilmore, Hunter, Lingiari, Cowan, Corangamite) would have to be offset by further gains elsewhere (from Reid, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Higgins, Brisbane, Pearce, Longman or Ryan).
The polls suggest the task of offsetting any Labor seat losses looks relatively good, ok very good, but in this scenario I’m going with bare minimum dragging your butt over the victory line with “teeth marks in the ballot paper” as someone called it today. I call it the 2019 PTSD effect which still haunts me today.
This ‘barely make it to a win scenario’ is not a reflection of what I personally want or think will happen on Saturday, but a realistic reflection of an electorate that often does the most inexplicable, strangest things when you are looking the other way.
For example, I can’t imagine a path to minority Government for the Coalition unless it collects all the ‘others’ together beyond Bandt and Wilkie
and convinces the new Teals it’s a good idea to support a minority Coalition… not probable, but not impossible.
Thank you Zoomster. It was right that we were represented by a class act.
Zoomster, well done and very appreciated!
Tom says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:42 pm
Upnorth @ #897 Saturday, May 14th, 2022 – 7:28 pm
ltep says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 7:25 pm
If pollbludger was survivor who would be voted off the island first.
中华人民共和国
Bree or Wayne. Same but different
Or Bluepill
中华人民共和国
I hear you
Thank you zoomster.
Confessions at 7:36 pm
LOL SfM IS the legacy of The Rodent and the Hammock Dweller and what they did to the party.
BeaglieBoy says:
Saturday, May 14, 2022 at 8:43 pm
northern peculiarities? I thought u liked rugby…lol
中华人民共和国
No old mate. Rugby League old son. No Hyphens in my name.
Bludging @8:34. ”This is not true. Labor would prefer a Lite to a Lying Reactionary every time.”
It is true that David Hildebrand is urging that strategy, but no Labor supporter who thought it through would accept it.
Surbhi Snowball (Flinders in Vic) into 6:1 from 9:1 earlier today (Sportsbet)
And Scott in Deakin today propping up the odious Sukkar on a +5% margin.
The swing is on.