The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead falling back slightly to 54.5-45.5, in from 55-45 last week. However, the pollster has switched from respondent-allocated preference to using the flows from 2019, the former of were producing results more favourable to Labor. The movements on the primary vote are actually in favour of Labor, who are up half a point to 35.5% with the Coalition down one to 34%. The Greens are steady on 13%, One Nation are up one to 4% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1%.
The state breakdowns, which cannot be directly compared to last week’s due to the change in the preference calculation, have Labor leading 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales (a swing to Labor of about 3.5%), 61-39 in Victoria (about 8%), 57.5-42.5 in Western Australia (about 13%) and 62.5-37.5 in South Australia (about 12%). The Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 5%) and 60-40 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
Further chatter from around the traps:
• Karen Middleton of The Saturday Paper reports that Liberal polling shows Tim Wilson “headed for defeat” at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein with 37% of the primary vote, while Josh Frydenberg’s vote in Kooyong is “currently tracking at 42%”, putting him “about 2% lower than it needs to be” to hold out against independent Monique Ryan. In North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman could potentially lose to either independent Kylea Tink or Labor’s Catherine Renshaw; both parties’ polling suggests the Liberals are in “a losing position” in the Sydney seat of Reid and the Perth seats of Pearce and Swan; Boothby in Adelaide is “leaning strongly Labor’s way”; Hasluck in Perth and Bass in Tasmania are “tightening”, presumably to Labor’s advantage; and the Brisbane seats of Ryan and Brisbane are “at risk”, as is Casey on the fringes of Melbourne, which I haven’t heard mentioned before. Parramatta and Macquarie in Sydney “are currently looking like staying with Labor”. The government’s anti-China rhetoric is also said to have resulted in a “plunge” in Liberal support among the Chinese community, harming it in Chisholm and putting Bennelong in play for Labor. For all that, the Liberals “remain confident of winning Gilmore” and are “lineball” in Corangamite. They are also “hopeful of seizing McEwen”, although “Labor sources query this”.
• In contrast to the previous assessment, Greg Brown of The Australian reports Liberal sources are “increasingly confident” that Gladys Liu will retain Chisholm and “believe Labor is shifting resources towards Higgins, where incumbent MP Katie Allen’s primary vote has dropped to 42%”. However, Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Labor believes it will win Chisholm while also having a “serious chance” in Higgins, and will “probably” retain McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley. Sakkal further reports that Anthony Albanese will appear with Daniel Andrews today, defying suggestions he is keeping his distance from the Premier, to announce a promised $2.2 billion in federal funding for the Suburban Rail Loop, a state government project opposed by the Morrison government. The initial stage of the project will cut a north-south path through the eastern suburbs that will run neatly through Chisholm.
• Contrary to Clive Palmer’s earlier position that the United Australia Party would direct preferences against all sitting members, The Guardian reports how-to-vote cards being distributed at pre-poll voting centres have Liberal incumbents ahead of Labor in Chisholm, Reid and Bass, and ahead of teal independents in Mackellar and Wentworth.
• Nine’s endeavour to rate audience response to Sunday night’s debate eventually settled on a tied result between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, although this was based on an uncontrolled exercise open to anyone who get the website form to work. The overwhelming view was the combative nature of the debate did neither protagonist any favours. A third debate will be held tomorrow night on the Seven Network.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 8:39 am
….
Also just noticing Williams’s article on the Morgan poll and the SA 2pp figure. Go Sturt! Hope lives for a local end to fascist rule. I am actually looking forward to handing out PVs. Xanthippe and I are also doing a session of pre-polling.
————————————————
If you are having out HTVs at the girls’ school again, as you did for the state election, I shall make a point of saying hi. I’ll even take a HTV though I won’t need it.
I would just love to see Sturt change hands.
In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fox news and many republicans continuing to be Putin apologists.
We finally might get to the bottom of how much these people were bought and paid for by the kremlin.
Also hoping that Trump will be exposed for his part.
I always believed that qanon was created to misdirect.
Make the dems the pedos. Whilst your own side are actually knee deep in trafficking minors.
——–
Fernand R Amandi
It’s clear now in retrospect that the reason @MittRomney volunteered, the then bizarre answer of Russia and Putin as our greatest geopolitical threat in the 2012 POTUS debate with Obama, was because Romney was aware at how compromised the @GOP was by Putin and Russian money.
———-
So McCain’s campaign was infiltrated by Russia in 2008.
Exactly when did Putin start his friendly takeover of the Republican Enterprise?
A couple of things stand out for me at this election. #1 Mr Morrison is not liked. Even Coalition supporters agree with that. #2 We’re seeing more independents than last time. The assumption is that they are disaffected Liberals frustrated at the Coalition’s attitudes towards climate and gender.
So when the predominate mood is to chuck out the incumbents, I wonder how wise it is to assign preferences based on results in 2019. (Insofar as mood is a guide and I am a measure of it.) Also, how many preferences might flow back to the Coalition should a Teal candidate be unsuccessful? At the very least as Steve777 pointed out it might be sensible to publish the calculations for both 2019 and respondent preferences.
-Signed: Scarred from last time.
WB,
An improvement to the Federal Election thread for future Elections might be the addition of a section for a brief (date, sample size, who commissioned, Party breakdown and TPP) summary of recent/relevant seat and State polls polls to the individual seats.
WeWantPaul @ #141 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 7:35 am
This government in unprecedentedly bad. Morrison is more disliked than any PM I can remember. Labor isn’t really exciting anyone but it’ll probably win easily just on the basis it is not the Government and it will implement an ICAC. It’s hard to be sure where the vote will land but 55-45 wouldn’t surprise me.
Q: What I have a hard time accepting is their justification that stated preferences is better measure for 2 years and 350 days, but for some reason past preferences becomes more reliable only for the last 2 weeks before the election.
Indeed……just plain odd….do they suddenly know something?
C@t
1996 and 2013 show that when baseball bats are out for Labor, the Coalition racks up monumental victories. 1983 and 2007 show that decisive ALP victories tend to be relatively more modest. And, whilst i agree ScoMo has reached the writeoff depths of Howard/Fraser, there is no way Albo has reached the goodwill heights of Hawke or Rudd.
Is anyone seeing 15 ALP gains across NSW and Qld? Where? Thats what it would take for that scale of victory. Basically i see the ALP getting to a ~majority level outside of these two states with the size of their victory being determined by their gains in those two states.
The coalition in fact might lose more seats in nsw to independents than to Labor
The feeling is one of “we must rid ourselves of this scourge”.
“Will no one rid me of this meddlesome priest?”
In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, fox news and many republicans continuing to be Putin apologists.
We finally might get to the bottom of how much these people were bought and paid for by the kremlin.
Also hoping that Trump will be exposed for his part.
I always believed that qanon was created to misdirect.
Make the dems the pedos. Whilst your own side are actually knee deep in trafficking minors.
——–
Fernand R Amandi
It’s clear now in retrospect that the reason @MittRomney volunteered, the then bizarre answer of Russia and Putin as our greatest geopolitical threat in the 2012 POTUS debate with Obama, was because Romney was aware at how compromised the @GOP was by Putin and Russian money.
———-
So McCain’s campaign was infiltrated by Russia in 2008.
Exactly when did Putin start his friendly takeover of the Republican Enterprise?
C@t
—
PK on ABC points out that there is no SURGERY available to trans people before they turn 18 years old and it is never dealt with “lightly” as Scomo implied in defending Deves gender mutilation claims. Why is he persisting on this theme- trying to save Reid and Chisolm ? Who knows what goes on in that air heads mind.
Just trying to come up with a line for the lib how to vote cards carriers, they are likely to be people I know well and have done for decades, so I am aiming for cheeky rather than just angry ‘every single LNP MP should be in jail isn’t it humiliating to hand out to votes for the most corrupt and worst Govt in Australian history.”
So instead I was working with “Great to see the Libs found someone who actually doessomething, I was worried you’d all be in Hawaii.”
As the polling data rolls in,along with the mostly thoughtful commentary, on PB, one thing sticks with me that encourages me to disregard commentary based on 2019.
Like Campbell Newman on Qld, Morrison has managed to anger, disenfranchise and alienate so many sections of the community across the board, and that probably includes a fair swag of Liberal supporters.
Quite a few of his team will probably survive because of their margins, unevenness in any swing and personal support for individual MPs.
But ,as has been hammered home, the electorate knows him now, and I can’t see swinging voters giving him the benefit of the doubt he scored in 2019.
That said, there are lots of interesting connotations that will come out when the time comes, and a veritable feast of commentary here on PB.
JenAuthor @ #144 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 9:38 am
Talentlessness rules now, so it can only improve with time.
Meanwhile under the Biden Presidency, the deficit has been slashed.
—–
The federal budget deficit was $360 billion in the first seven months of fiscal year 2022, CBO estimates. That amount is about one-fifth of the $1.9 trillion shortfall recorded during the same period in 2021. https://t.co/6FQoOlixyq
PB’s becoming a bit like the running of the bulls in Pamplona, crowded with whoever they are, and bit stampede-y and tramp-ly, especially later in the day. Look away and it’s moved on in a cloud of dust and noise. I can’t keep up. I feel a bit safer on a balcony, looking and watching.
Thanks BK, the indefatigable BK.
The SMH piece on ED’s was a good read, very well written, and a lot between the lines. It gives good insight into what it’s like, and credence to Labor’s urgent care clinics plan, the details of which I’m not all that across, other than it’s meant to be 7 days a week, 8-10; staffing would be an issue. But she makes the case for an intermediate level of triage and treatment very well.
https://www.smh.com.au/healthcare/it-s-an-emergency-unhealthy-reliance-on-eds-must-be-triaged-20220509-p5ajri.html
I haven’t, can’t, and won’t read Sheridan, but it’s false to say the campaign has no style or substance. He means his team has no style, except slob bovver boy stuff, which he can’t accredit, and certainly no substance, except, as I was saying.
Starting to think this will wind up 78-80 seats to the ALP. Rest split between Lib/Nat/Teal/Greens but as long as the ALP has a working majority in the HoR then all good. Will be very interesting seeing what paths the ALP will have to get things through the Senate, but on their record they will manage. 🙂
If they can get Climate Change action and FICAC legislation’s through then that will i think be the biggest first term agenda in terms of real policy and governance we have had for years.
JenAuthor says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:38 am
I know it is highly unlikely to be uniform and Morgan isn’t credible but one can dream — plug those numbers in Antony Green’s calculator and you get (note I gave 3 seats to Teals):
Why would we assume a uniform national swing? It almost never happens. What we do know is that the Lying Reactionaries are in very serious trouble in Victoria, SA and WA, and likely to lose not-just-a-few of their foundational blue-ribbon seats.
The electorate is jaded, cynical and resentful. They have every reason to feel this way. They will vote their resentments and their cynicism. What else can they do?
I think the Lying Reactionaries face demolition. They will come home with 30-odd seats, perhaps fewer than that.
My tip for the next leader of the Liberals is Andrew Hastie (if he holds his seat), while Barnaby Joyce will lead the largest formal grouping and will become LOTO.
The predictions here that the Nationals may have the upper hand in any post-election coalition are interesting.
Firstly, the Nationals seem to have the policy upper hand already, so we’re really just speculating on numbers of seats.
Secondly, the real issue for the Liberal Party is that they are likely to have lost a substantial number of their moderate seats and members to Teal. The inevitable result will be a dramatic jump to the right. The distinction between Nationals and the remaining Liberals will be slight.
There will be great difficulty in reforming a small-l Liberal Party for the now-out-of-a-job moderates. Teal looks like the only possible nucleus for a more moderate party of the right.
Best of luck with that, but it’ll be fun watching. As will what happens to Morrison.
WeWantPaul @ #141 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 9:35 am
Normally I don’t care too much but I hate that Americanism with a passion. IMO the people who use it are a pack of arsehole.
The State Electoral Map, by seats held shows the Liberal Party holding around the inner Bay side and inner Eastern Melbourne.
Then a line to the Dandenong’s, including Bulleen where Stamoulis installed Guy in his move from the Upper House.
Noting seats such as Hawthorn, Box Hill, Ringwood and Bayswater are currently ALP, gains at the last State election.
This thin line of Liberal seats is surrounded by ALP held seats, on both sides.
In turn, the City demographic is surrounded by Liberal and National seats
I would put that the Liberal vote in Victoria is restricted to an age demographic and a Bible Group demographic.
Whilst the State Liberal Party is in “election mode”, supported by media and their antecedent attacks on Andrews (East-West Link, “Red Shirts”, ICAC – noting the Liberal Party will come in for attention, ICAC currently focused on “low hanging fruit” referred by the Victorian Parliament – problems within the health system, replicating the rest of the World in a Pandemic and cost overruns on projects, again replicating the rest of the World in a Pandemic), Andrews continues to govern
The State Liberal Party is in “election mode” to attempt to shore up its re-installed Leader and to attempt to improve their federal vote
Expat Follower @ 9.45am,
As for gains in NSW and Victoria I have a sneaky suspicion that the Western Sydney seats of Reid and Banks are gettable, due to the underlying resentment of the people who live there at the Liberal State government’s biased treatment of them during the pandemic. I also think Page is a dark horse as a result of Morrison’s shabby treatment of the people in that seat after the floods. I don’t think Labor will lose Gilmore. I think the contest in Hughes will be fascinating and Labor may just come through the middle there. Also, I would be overjoyed if the people of Cook did to Morrison what the people of Bennelong did to Howard.
Also, speaking of Bennelong, I do believe Labor are in with a chance there too.
Does that add up to 94 or there abouts, probably not but there are possibilities, if not probabilities.
The ideological split apparent in the Libs between traditional conservatives and the Teal Independents seeking a focus on different issues, makes it likely that a more extreme swing may be on the cards.
State Elections in Victoria, WA, SA, Qld and NT have shown the trend to not only punish the Libs, but to almost wipe them out in some cases.
I’m always loathe to promote a “this time it will be different” meme, but disunity within and dissatisfaction with the Libs policies and presentation is very strong atm. So, it could be a watershed Election. 11 sleeps to find out.
The baseball bat degree will only be known in hindsight. Its no doubt there, but to the degree it existed in 1996 and 2013 i think is wishful thinking or placement of personal bias… especially in nsw/qld which is where the avalanche of seats is available
We shall see. Some devastating advert reminders of why ScoMo sux (bushfires, submarines, women to name a few) would def assist in nsw. Qld is its own beast
But even if it is,
shellbell, I saw your note about Angel Place. Was it fun? I ventured up to Barangaroo on the weekend. The Cutaway is amazing, if to my eyes a lot of the exhibits seemed a bit lost in the space. There was this amazing “Flow” made of bamboo (I think) suspended from on high, the length of the place. It looked like caramelised smoke. A woman said to me (we were all very small little beings): “I’m from Melbourne, what is this, where am I?” I said: “See that fabulous massive sand stone wall? That’s all you need to know; you’re in Sydney”.
Dan and Albo having a joint press conference in melbourne – but I thought both were causing the vote to drop in victoria.
I think everyone is getting ahead of themselves here, with almost two weeks to go and a huge reliance that polling methodology is correct.
I do think Labor will win, but victory should not be declared until after the votes are counted.
As for how things feel, comparison with past election victories/defeats can be quite wrong because circumstances are always different.
At this stage, my gut feeling (bolstered by comments of others, Vox pops, etc) is that people have totally had enough of Morrison and his ‘team’ but have no great enthusiasm for what Labor will offer. I hope that the feeling about Morrison will cause a late break to Labor (being the overriding emotion of the election).
I think it is a very good thing that expectations of a Labor government by the general populace are low (lower than it should be because of the appalling media reporting) because Labor is about to inherit a completely ugly situation if it wins. It will have a lot on its plate to address economically, socially and in regard to defence and security and the incoming Opposition will not give a Labor government the slightest breathing space if they can avoid it.
But still there is an election to win.
Hornberger
“ What I have a hard time accepting is their justification that stated preferences is better measure for 2 years and 350 days, but for some reason past preferences becomes more reliable only for the last 2 weeks before the election. If you think one method is better than the other, make the decision ahead of time and then stick with it.”
I hear what you’re saying, it’s an interesting point.
C@tmomma @ #129 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 9:26 am
I was interesting to hear her speak, actually speak. She’s no incoherent nutter, just a fundamentalist bigoted nutter with no insights into the human condition.
For some little while, like many, have tried to pick the “mood” out there in voter land….
Being in the Hermit Kingdom, among 10% of the Oz population, not an easy task….
What strikes me is that the election itself is not engendering much heat let alone interest….
In day to day stuff, there is very little general conversation and there does not appear to be either anger or excitement – which, of itself is a worry as if apathy prevails the wavers might just go the ‘Devil we know’ path.
On the other hand, while Albo is no Rudd, Morrison has well and truly been exposed as a poor leader and I just sense that people want a change….whether it is enough to Labor is the key…..
As a for instance, for some days now, other than after the “debate”, the local West rag has relegated its election coverage to a page or two and very rarely stuff on the front page…….And in its “Who Won the Day” bit, after Morrison got off to an 8 to nil start, the scores are now level. But, the paper now puts more of its score on “neither”……………………..
This time around don’t feel the dread of Labor being beaten, but after 2019 not being overly confident. Those prognosticating about the future of the Liberals, predicated on a Labor win, are miles ahead of themselves…
As the old cliche goes, before you make rabbit stew, catch the rabbit…….
Luigi Smith says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:51 am
…. the real issue for the Liberal Party is that they are likely to have lost a substantial number of their moderate seats and members to Teal. The inevitable result will be a dramatic jump to the right. The distinction between Nationals and the remaining Liberals will be slight.
This idea that the Lying Reactionaries include a few token moderates is just a rumour. There’s not a single moderate voice among their House members from WA. They are all Reactionaries. In the Senate, perhaps Dean Smith has moderate, reformist credentials. The rest are carbon-copy Lying Reactionaries.
@C@tmomma 9:53am:
—
I would be overjoyed if the people of Cook did to Morrison what the people of Bennelong did to Howard.
—
I am very buoyant about this election because the longer we go in this campaign the worse it gets for Morrison, mostly because the Murdoch media cheersquad is proving ineffective and voters are waking up to this and deciding that Morrison must go.
But, knowing the type of people that live in the Shire nowadays, there is no way Morrison will lose his seat. There are very few Teal types down that way and most of the Lib voters would be from the other end of the spectrum.
Best case scenario would be a modest swing against Morrison.
No counting poultry and the fat lady is still warming up – until it’s announced for the alp I still think the lnp will form majority/minority government.
The trend/data says the alp should win about 80 seats, but until the votes are counted who knows.
IMHO, 2 reasons for ALP ‘landslides’ being smaller than Coalition…
1) Rural electorates (strongly Coalition-leaning) often have fewer electors than urban ones;
2) The community leans slightly more ‘conservative’ (whatever that means) than ‘progressive’. In the past, I’ve pointed to a poll quoted by American commentator David Brooks, in which 35% identified as conservative, 26% as progressive and the rest were neither or didn’t know. In other words, conservatism starts out with a small lead over progressivism.
Pi says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 8:48 am
According to Dr Bonham (from the age article), the 2PP of the ALP is down about 2% from the 2018 Vic state election, to 55.5% from 57.5%. So not a thrashing, just a belting.
————————
Hardly a belting either. In any normal environment winning more than 55% of the 2PP would be a very big win, getting into landslide territory. For a 3rd term government in this era to get a 55.5% 2PP would be an extraordinarily result. Polling notwithstanding, and assuming a Federal Labor win, this far out I’d expect the actual State election result to be closer – maybe in the 52/53 range in favour of Andrews. And even that wouldn’t be a belting.
TPOF says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:58 am
After the votes have been counted and the dust has settled, it will be very obvious: the destruction of the Lying Reactionary Party was self-inflicted. Labor will have a large college but the greatest damage to the Reactionaries will not have been done by Labor. Reactionary deceits, betrayals, insults, cruelties, stupidities, recklessness and pettiness will have caught up with them.
C@t
I agree with your nsw assessment, throw in 5 qld gains on top of all those possible nsw pickups and some >10% bolters in other states and they could get to 90.
Its very unlikely. Fwiw ill do my bit in Reid!
80 would be good. 85 would be excellent.
These tips of 90 or 94 require nominating 20-25 credible seat gains… this is wet dream territory rather than anything analytical and just a recipe for disappointment on the night
“Normally I don’t care too much but I hate that Americanism with a passion. IMO the people who use it are a pack of arsehole.”
That is really sweet of you, thanks for sharing.
Max
If Labor win federally. I do expect Vic state election to be a close fought affair.
Especially as it will be Labor seeking a third term.
Covid wasn’t kind to the Andrews govt. and many who previously supported him and Labor thought lockdowns were harsh.
Of course the majority accepted it was a necessary course of action. But many did not.
Dan and Albo on site at another railway crossing removal. This time in Surrey Hills. This level crossing is in Kooyong and is close to the electoral borders for Deakin and Chisholm and so will be used by those voters.
The Level Crossing removal programme has been enormously popular throughout Melbourne and underpins the Victorian labor Governments stranglehold on power.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523799598334377985
GG
Yes the level crossing removals have been a big hit. Not only with the general public, but those directly and indirectly employed in this sector.
It has kept the economy bubbling along nicely.
Greensborough Growler @ #187 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 10:14 am
great clip that
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:01 am
Bludging @ #4 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 4:52 am
If there’s a word for the mood of the electorate it would be “sullen”. There’s no great excitement. There’s a grave decision being taken: voters are disaffiliating from the Reactionaries. They are not elated about it, but they are doing it. Voters have had enough of them.
This is the main theme I’m picking up from the good burghers in my district. They’ve had enough of the crony capitalism.
To me it feels like the election where the Labor government were thrown out into the street for their lying, corruption and sexual exploits in the People’s House.
Sound familiar?
”
So more like 2011 NSW State election?
King OMalley @ #137 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 9:33 am
Thanks for the link.
Meanwhile covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue on their merry way.
Especially in Vic and NSW
Sigh……
Taylormade @ #43 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 7:34 am
We know that already. Thier, thier.
Bert @ #50 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 5:51 am
Same same Bert, for the first time ever I didn’t fill in every box below the line, followed the htv with one variation.
Get in, get out and get rid of them.
I must have missed BB’s crime.
I hope he’s back soon, despite his tendency to prosecute old arguments especially ones he thought he got the better of first time round and occasionally veering across the sexism line, when he has a mind to he can be an amusing and interesting contributor.
perhaps the fact thatwhen labor is unpopular the liberals win more seats is due to the medias bias towads liberal people who arnt like us and follow politics hear on the msm that albbanese made a gaf or gillard is hopelis desbite more legislation pased in minority government then 8 years of lib rule our media isworse then Us as at least they have cnn and msnbc keating made a huge mistake giving 70 persent of news papers and tv to fairfax packer and news corp abot was very unpopular yet the media never covered his gafs
If the polls are right then this government is heading for an historic (and thoroughly deserved) rout, and yes some of the seemingly more fantastic numbers being thrown around are actually not that out of bounds.
If the polls aren’t right then every option is open. But even then there’s not being right and being monstrously wrong. A 2019 style miss would probably still see Labor scrape over the line with a bare majority on the current trajectory. If the polling gets it so badly wrong (assuming of course they don’t pull out some 51-49s in the final week to cover their arses and allow for too close to call commentary) that the Coalition retains government then they should just pack it up and give up. No one will waste a moment on them ever again.
But if the polls aren’t right there’s also no guarantee that they’re over stating Labor’s position.
The recent Vic, SA and WA polls all understated the final ALP win. It’s perfectly natural for anyone to be worried and hedging their bets after 2019, but unwelcome surprises can and do go both ways. My missus got back from the ALP branch meeting last night and said the local member (on around a 9% margin) was talking about not being sure of the result of even his seat. She said it was the the most anti-rev up speech ever. If the ALP lose Macarthur this election then polling is done for. It’s likely Freelander has the same 2019 fear pretty much everyone involved in Labor politics has at the back of their heads. The most rational prediction is that Dr Mike will get a tidy swing to him and we’ll all be enjoying our drinks much much more than this time three years ago.
But polls aren’t votes and we just don’t know and won’t know until Antony starts showing the swing bar charts around 7:30 on the 21st.
I am enraged by Morrison’s comments on trans kids today, and furious with his cynical abuse of their interests for cheap political purposes over the course of this campaign.
His vocal-fry pleas of reasonableness are so much performative confection.
This is vicious, malicious politics. There’s been talk about things getting increasingly nasty over the last two weeks.
For trans Australians that ship sailed weeks ago.
It is as shameful an episode in Australian electoral politics as we’ve ever seen.
Victoria says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 10:18 am
Meanwhile covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue on their merry way.
Especially in Vic and NSW
———
It’s really spiking in Vic at the moment – and in WA too. NSW seems to be trending down. An uptick in numbers could be predicted from removal of most of the remaining restrictions, but you wonder how high it can go-especially in the southern States with the colder winter. I’ve had 9 extended family members go down to the Rona in the last few weeks – fortunately they were all vaxxed, young and healthy. Makes me feel that those who haven’t had it are on borrowed time.