The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead falling back slightly to 54.5-45.5, in from 55-45 last week. However, the pollster has switched from respondent-allocated preference to using the flows from 2019, the former of were producing results more favourable to Labor. The movements on the primary vote are actually in favour of Labor, who are up half a point to 35.5% with the Coalition down one to 34%. The Greens are steady on 13%, One Nation are up one to 4% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1%.
The state breakdowns, which cannot be directly compared to last week’s due to the change in the preference calculation, have Labor leading 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales (a swing to Labor of about 3.5%), 61-39 in Victoria (about 8%), 57.5-42.5 in Western Australia (about 13%) and 62.5-37.5 in South Australia (about 12%). The Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 5%) and 60-40 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
Further chatter from around the traps:
• Karen Middleton of The Saturday Paper reports that Liberal polling shows Tim Wilson “headed for defeat” at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein with 37% of the primary vote, while Josh Frydenberg’s vote in Kooyong is “currently tracking at 42%”, putting him “about 2% lower than it needs to be” to hold out against independent Monique Ryan. In North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman could potentially lose to either independent Kylea Tink or Labor’s Catherine Renshaw; both parties’ polling suggests the Liberals are in “a losing position” in the Sydney seat of Reid and the Perth seats of Pearce and Swan; Boothby in Adelaide is “leaning strongly Labor’s way”; Hasluck in Perth and Bass in Tasmania are “tightening”, presumably to Labor’s advantage; and the Brisbane seats of Ryan and Brisbane are “at risk”, as is Casey on the fringes of Melbourne, which I haven’t heard mentioned before. Parramatta and Macquarie in Sydney “are currently looking like staying with Labor”. The government’s anti-China rhetoric is also said to have resulted in a “plunge” in Liberal support among the Chinese community, harming it in Chisholm and putting Bennelong in play for Labor. For all that, the Liberals “remain confident of winning Gilmore” and are “lineball” in Corangamite. They are also “hopeful of seizing McEwen”, although “Labor sources query this”.
• In contrast to the previous assessment, Greg Brown of The Australian reports Liberal sources are “increasingly confident” that Gladys Liu will retain Chisholm and “believe Labor is shifting resources towards Higgins, where incumbent MP Katie Allen’s primary vote has dropped to 42%”. However, Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Labor believes it will win Chisholm while also having a “serious chance” in Higgins, and will “probably” retain McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley. Sakkal further reports that Anthony Albanese will appear with Daniel Andrews today, defying suggestions he is keeping his distance from the Premier, to announce a promised $2.2 billion in federal funding for the Suburban Rail Loop, a state government project opposed by the Morrison government. The initial stage of the project will cut a north-south path through the eastern suburbs that will run neatly through Chisholm.
• Contrary to Clive Palmer’s earlier position that the United Australia Party would direct preferences against all sitting members, The Guardian reports how-to-vote cards being distributed at pre-poll voting centres have Liberal incumbents ahead of Labor in Chisholm, Reid and Bass, and ahead of teal independents in Mackellar and Wentworth.
• Nine’s endeavour to rate audience response to Sunday night’s debate eventually settled on a tied result between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, although this was based on an uncontrolled exercise open to anyone who get the website form to work. The overwhelming view was the combative nature of the debate did neither protagonist any favours. A third debate will be held tomorrow night on the Seven Network.
John Kinghorn, erstwhile political donor, RAMS vendor, hits a bump in limiting/stopping his prosecution for making false representations in a compulsory tax examination.
https://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/cases/cth/HCATrans//2022/80.html
“Still an absolute belting (55.5 2PP).”
Yes, and the 55.5 is an estimate which could actually be higher if the ‘other’ category holds more left leaning voters for instance, so it could truly be no change or an improvement. Hard to tell. Always hard to maintain a really high level of support like seen at the previous election though.
In the ABC election calculator, those state breakdown result in Libs with 53 seats.
NAT: 10
LNP (QLD Lib and NAT): 19
LIB: 24
Hold it right there, NAT+LNP have control of coalition, bbl im off to invest in popcorn stonks;
Libs could become a minor party if LNP allowed NAT to join their party.
Off to the gulags for Egor. 🙁
And can Vladimir Putrid take his fossil fuel coercion and bully boy tactics and stick them where the sun don’t shine!?!
Russia’s foreign ministry responded to the incident by demanding Warsaw organise a new wreath-laying ceremony immediately and saying Poland should “ensure complete protection against any provocations”.
Bakunin: “Vic Labor PV is down about 6% on last election.”
According to Dr Bonham (from the age article), the 2PP of the ALP is down about 2% from the 2018 Vic state election, to 55.5% from 57.5%. So not a thrashing, just a belting.
This meme about Andrews being unpopular is kool-aid for the one-eyed conservatives.
C@tmomma
“big fat charlatans”
I think “well nourished” is the modern parlance
Quite a lot of bounciness in the state samples for Morgan, although that would usually be based off of small samples you’d think.
shellbell @ #99 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:47 am
Good. 😐
shellbell @ #104 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:48 am
They’ve spent too long in the top paddock? 😉
Liberal launch to be held in Queensland on sunday.
C@T
“Clive Palmer is a big fat charlatan. That doesn’t surprise me.”
I’ve a very good friend who has had to deal with Palmer on many occasions (Professionally). He says his persona is exactly what we see on tv in every way. He was not being flattering I can assure you.
leftieBrawler says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 8:35 am
Dutton is a secretive, cruel, cynical, stupid and stubborn reactionary. He shouldn’t be in the Parliament, let alone given the duties of leadership.
Of the 23 LNP members in Queensland, how many actually sit with the National caucus (as opposed to Liberal)?
Given that almost all seats that Labor might win off the Coalition are from Liberal seats (in Queensland and outside), it would be very interesting to see what kind of composition of the Coalition post-election. I imagine that in combination of Teals stealing moderate Liberal seats, it will be considerably more conservative than before.
Has anyone seen a Ucomm poll for the seat of Brisbane ? .. I got polled by them about 2 weeks ago … given the questions, it seemed to be commissioned by the Greens
I was prepared to forgive Lobo his “oversight” in efficiently registering his address at a place he would soon be living in, only to be swamped by delays and political commitments. (We’ve also suffered unexpected delays in our housing situation as have our neighbours, so I can relate at least somewhat to the general situation.) Put another way, incompetence isn’t conspiracy. But with his in-laws also registered at the address further questions arise.
* Did he buy the run down property off his in-laws, and they haven’t “moved out” yet?
* Who owned the property before him, and also before them?
* Where is everyone living right now? (Caravan park, hotel, another house, ..?)
* Is the property unliveable?
* Is anyone living at the property at the moment?
* When was the last time anyone lived at the property?
* Who last lived at the property?
* Is anyone in his immediate family (his and his in-law’s) registered at more than one location?
* Who else might be registered at this address?
* etc.
There’s another aphorism. When you’re explaining you’re losing.
For context WB’s analysis of the seat:
It’s easy to see why Labor is pushing this.
Hornberger ”Isn’t changing your methodology to match everyone else so you achieve “more believable” results basically the definition of herding?”
I don’t know why, but last election preferences seem to have been better at predicting results than respondent-allocated preferences in recent years. That might have something to do with the fact that many (most?) voters follow party how-to-vote cards. In any case, Morgan seems to have decided that last-election preferences are a better predictor. If I were running Morgan I’d give both.
Last time, polls results from all pollsters were uncannily stable, staying at Labor 51-52 2PP for weeks even though MOE is typically 2-3%. That was herding. It doesn’t seem to be happening this time.
Scomo is copping it over his attitude to gender reassignment in a presser and dodging questions about Deeves description of it as gender mutilation. Not a good presser for him today.
To me, this campaign hasn’t felt like 2007; I have had a very 1996 feel about this election for some time. Not a huge enthusiasm for the opposition, but a definite and determined mood to throw the government out. A hesitancy from the media, in spite of the polls, to say anything other than “tight race”, because they got bitten three years earlier, just as in 1996. I was only 17 in 1996, and allowed myself because of the media’s reluctance to be definitive about what was happening that Labor could pull it out of the fire again. Another similarity is this “you don’t have to like” narrative. I have heard quite a bit of this in recent days; “you don’t have to like Scott Morrison, but”. Again, this was trotted out in 1996 about Keating. So I think we will end up with a 2pp not unlike that of 1996, but with that not delivering Labor as many as the 94 seats it delivered the Coalition, thus my prediction of around 85 seats.
Some ALP diehards are starting to lose it with talk of 54 2PP and ~50 seat counts for the coalition. Only in a fantasy world is this the second coming of Curtin or Rudd. Puhleaze get a grip!
85 ALP seats and a 53% 2PP would be a massive landslide for Labor.
I agree it would take a miracle for ScoMo to hang on from here, but this growing excitement that it’s like the UK in 1997 or Joh getting booted. People’s med regimens are starting to slip
Re Late Riser @9:06. If it were a Labor candidate someone in the mainstream media would be asking those questions.
Freya;
If moderate Libs keep losing its just a matter of time until the coalition ends and they go their own way, the remaining Liberal Party members can then make peace with the Teals by adopting Liberal (rather than Conservative) policies. Then the healing can begin.
A thumping ALP win is the only salvation for the Liberal Party long term.
The things which the lib/nats got to offer the voters is
incompetence
Corruption
Lies
Fear/smear
Broken promises
Expat Follower;
Its the women wielding the baseball bats this time, i think a lot of people are too emotionally scared from last election to be objective.
A record win for Labor is a fraction over 53%, the polling is suggesting its safely above that, are we heading for a record win ?
Freya Stark @ #111 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:33 am
Interesting post. One might suggest the post election composition of the Coalition will better reflect its politics. No longer the conservative tail wagging the Liberal dog – now just an out and out (ultra?) conservative dog of a party. Perhaps the metaphor of a skink that sheds its tail is more apt?
“Freya Starksays:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:03 am
Of the 23 LNP members in Queensland, how many actually sit with the National caucus (as opposed to Liberal)?
Given that almost all seats that Labor might win off the Coalition are from Liberal seats (in Queensland and outside), it would be very interesting to see what kind of composition of the Coalition post-election. I imagine that in combination of Teals stealing moderate Liberal seats, it will be considerably more conservative than before.”
And become unelectable
The problem is the so called “moderates” have provided fig leaf cover for terrible reactionary government for most of the last decade (punctuated be the tepid reign of Turnbull). The best chance for respectable non-Labor government in the future is not in the form of the modern coallition.
Thanks BK
96 comes closest to me. PM who is generally despised (although at least PJK also had huge supporters).
One big difference is the economic situation- in 96 things were more stable; now the scene is full of apprehension despite record low unemployment and household wealth. I did think the LNP could have used that to its advantage but it doesn’t seem to be happening.
I doubt Dan Andrews will ever lose an election while he is the sitting premier. We flew down for the Formula one race and stayed a few extra nights. You get a strong progressive wokish vibe around the suburbs.
Due to high demand for the weekend our motel was way out in suburbia at a northern suburb called Preston where the tram lines of the inner city seemed to end.
Even that far out from the city I was surprised to walk into a bar there and it had a wall plastered with framed, historical ALP election posters going back to the Whitlam days such as the ‘it’s time, Vote Labor’, ‘Liberal party medicine? Poison Vote for your life Vote Labor’ etc.
I think Dan has the read of the room in Victoria and apart from a small corridor of leafy outer suburban seats in the south East the Libs have nothing. Here in Sydney we have one king street as it winds its way from Newtown to Broadway, Melbourne had king st style areas in every direction
shellbell @ #104 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:48 am
Or the older ‘portly’ description…
Keir Starmer pledges to resign as Labour leader if fined for Covid breach .. Deputy leader Angela Rayner also says she will step down if fined after Durham police start new investigation into lockdown beer and takeaway event
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/09/keir-starmer-pledges-resign-labour-leader-if-fined-lockdown-beer-covid-breach
Sandman @ #115 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 9:09 am
Due to the fact Katherine Deeves walked back her position in an interview with Chris Kenny at Pre Poll yesterday.
The Libs and the Nats go their separate ways in Opposition. But, they craft out an agreement before the next Election.
With the Libs likely to lose many seats at this Election, there is the prospect the Nats will be the dominant Opposition Party. So, some soul searching by the Libs is likely.
If climate change, FICAC and women’s issues are handled well and remain popular issues for Labor and the Independents, it’s hard to see the conditions for a credible coalition in the near future.
Bludging
“ Dutton is a secretive, cruel, cynical, stupid and stubborn reactionary.”
A perfidious individual, Dickson deserves so much better.
“Some ALP diehards are starting to lose it with talk of 54 2PP and ~50 seat counts for the coalition. Only in a fantasy world is this the second coming of Curtin or Rudd. Puhleaze get a grip!”
Actually, I believe that there is a moderate to small chance that this might happen, especially if there doesn’t turn out to be a collective polling error. In 1996 and to a lesser extent in 2007, the existing governments had competent, “normal” ministries. Today, the “objective competence” of government frontbenchers (measured independent of party partisanship) is probably at the absolute nadir of modern history, comparable almost to the Trump cabinet. This alone might depress the Coalition 2pp, as it repulses the minority of the electorate who are not foolable by the mainstream media.
Bug1
Hawke delivered a 53% win in 1983. I agree ScoMo has lost the goodwill of the voting public, but lets not get carried away with thoughts that there is a massive enthusiasm for Labor and they are headed for a record win. Their primary vote just isnt that impressive?
Having said that, i rate an ALP landslide as higher probability than a coalition majority. But even that would be short of where expectations are starting to head.
80-60-10 would be a stupendous enough result. A coalition disaster will be delivered as much by Teals as by Labor
I’m not sure it will be a record win – looking a their historical wins:
Date/2pp/# seats/% of seats
12 October 1929 election 56.70% 46 65.71%
21 August 1943 election 58.20% 49 72.06%
5 March 1983 election 53.20% 75 60.00%
24 November 2007 election 52.70% 83 56.08%
52+ would be a great result
Freya
You seem to be stepping back to reality.
The problem the Liberals face it s the rest of cabinet is incompetent, they can’t be used to hide the fact that the PM best chance is to hide.
Expat Follower @ #117 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 9:11 am
How do you explain the 94 seats the Coalition got in 1996? Sometimes such things happen.
I don’t recall any election being like this. Past change-of-party elections were motivated by a variety of feelings: enthusiasm for change (1972), romance for a charismatic leader (1983), we can do better than this (2007), too much internal party conflict(2013). This one is solely about how bad the leader is.
Morrison is a lying, conniving bully. Everything he does is underhanded and sneaky. He cares about nobody but himself. He accepts no responsibility.
The feeling is one of “we must rid ourselves of this scourge”.
The King is heartened by the following numbers (it keeps him warm and helps him sleep at night).
Aggregated poll result: latest IPSOS, Newspoll and Morgan combined
——————————————————
Sample: 5,235
MoE: 1.4%
2PP:
Calculated from PVI using: https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/australian-2pp-estimator-2022/
ALP: 55.1%
LNP: 44.9%
2PP Upper limit: 56.5%/43.5%
2PP Lower limit: 53.7%/46.3%
ALP seat forecast using 2PP Lower Limit & ABC Election Calculator*: 86 seats
ALP seat forecast using BludgerTrack State swings & ABC Election Calculator: 87 seats
* Assumes national swing uniformly applied.
Finally, the King hopes that Bushfire Bill’s reeducation via forced labour in the PollBludger Gulag is not too onerous and looks forward to his return during the post-election celebrations.
Late Riser says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:06 am
I was prepared to forgive Lobo his “oversight” in efficiently registering his address at a place he would soon be living in, only to be swamped by delays and political commitments.
In the world of the Lying Reactionaries, the purpose of politics is to scam the system, or scam voters. To use a sham address as an electoral device is simply to build on the scam. These people lie. They lie all the time. They also routinely betray their supporters. This comes naturally to them. Deceit and betrayal are similar, of course.
Their deceits and their many, many betrayals will defeat the Reactionaries.
Interestingly, Morrison flew the “trust” kite a week or so ago. It must have crashed in the tracking polling. He hasn’t tried that one again. Were he to use that theme, he will simply remind voters of his lies, his abandonment and his betrayals.
Leftiebrawler
Hope you enjoyed your trip to Melbourne.
Actually Preston is only about 10 km from the CBD.
“Some ALP diehards are starting to lose it with talk of 54 2PP and ~50 seat counts for the coalition. Only in a fantasy world is this the second coming of Curtin or Rudd. Puhleaze get a grip!
85 ALP seats and a 53% 2PP would be a massive landslide for Labor.
I agree it would take a miracle for ScoMo to hang on from here, but this growing excitement that it’s like the UK in 1997 or Joh getting booted. People’s med regimens are starting to slip”
Those most excited seem just to be following the basic math, now we all are painfully aware the basic math maybe wrong, and there is a little time for change before the big count, but the ‘it will not and cannot be in the 55% range’ seems to be the medicated take to me.
Yeah it is a medicated take that relies heavily on history but still, it is a take that almost reflects just how terrible the Govt has been over three awful terms. Obviously if the result reflected performance it would be 75:25 to the ALP, but LNP voters have never been good at thinking.
Hawke delivered a 53% win in 1983. I agree ScoMo has lost the goodwill of the voting public, but lets not get carried away with thoughts that there is a massive enthusiasm for Labor and they are headed for a record win. Their primary vote just isn’t that impressive?
By saying this you’re not taking into account the, and I have to admit this, increase in The Greens PV in just about all the opinion polls since the election campaign began. So, just as you speculate, EF, that the Teals will do some damage to the Coalition, so will the increased Greens’ vote add to the Labor outcome.
Steve777 “I don’t know why, but last election preferences seem to have been better at predicting results than respondent-allocated preferences in recent years.”
I have no issues with pollsters using past preferences to estimate the 2PP.
What I have a hard time accepting is their justification that stated preferences is better measure for 2 years and 350 days, but for some reason past preferences becomes more reliable only for the last 2 weeks before the election.
If you think one method is better than the other, make the decision ahead of time and then stick with it.
I know it is highly unlikely to be uniform and Morgan isn’t credible but one can dream — plug those numbers in Antony Green’s calculator and you get (note I gave 3 seats to Teals):
ALP 87
LNP 54
Other 10
With Dutton AND Frydenberg losing their seats.
Who the heck would lead the darkness then????? Talentlessness rules
Simple expat follower:
The economic situation today has the allusion of being of being in a much better state than it is due to Morrison’s pissing a trillion dollars up the wall on excessive middle class welfare hand outs .
The electorate as a whole probably hates Morrison more than they did Keating in 96, but it’s the economic situation that will most likely save the LNP from a 96 style wipeout
I remember the ‘media’ telling us that we were heading for a hung parliament (or Libs could win) at the 2018 Victorian election. On election day there was an almost 15% gap in the 2PP, a swing to Labor of 5.3%. Best to ignore media narratives on election outcome.
Rex Douglas @ #NaN Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 6:37 am
Yes, Rex.
I’m sure election funding will cover to Clive’s advertising bill. 😆
Luigi Smith says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 9:33 am
The home ground supporters of the Lying Reactionaries obviously feel very profoundly insulted and betrayed by Morrison and his clique. They have decided to mobilise against him and against the party to whom they’ve given life-long support.
It takes a lot to mobilise politically. It’s hard work. It’s expensive. It’s a significant commitment. And yet this is happening in many of leafiest glades, the most opulent streets.
If the formerly rusted-on feel this way, how will the commonly indifferent, disengaged and weary voters of the suburbs and towns feel? They will want to wish away the Reactionaries. They are about to do it.