The weekly Roy Morgan poll finds Labor’s two-party lead falling back slightly to 54.5-45.5, in from 55-45 last week. However, the pollster has switched from respondent-allocated preference to using the flows from 2019, the former of were producing results more favourable to Labor. The movements on the primary vote are actually in favour of Labor, who are up half a point to 35.5% with the Coalition down one to 34%. The Greens are steady on 13%, One Nation are up one to 4% and the United Australia Party is steady on 1%.
The state breakdowns, which cannot be directly compared to last week’s due to the change in the preference calculation, have Labor leading 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales (a swing to Labor of about 3.5%), 61-39 in Victoria (about 8%), 57.5-42.5 in Western Australia (about 13%) and 62.5-37.5 in South Australia (about 12%). The Coalition leads 53.5-46.5 in Queensland (a swing to Labor of about 5%) and 60-40 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
Further chatter from around the traps:
• Karen Middleton of The Saturday Paper reports that Liberal polling shows Tim Wilson “headed for defeat” at the hands of independent Zoe Daniel in Goldstein with 37% of the primary vote, while Josh Frydenberg’s vote in Kooyong is “currently tracking at 42%”, putting him “about 2% lower than it needs to be” to hold out against independent Monique Ryan. In North Sydney, Trent Zimmerman could potentially lose to either independent Kylea Tink or Labor’s Catherine Renshaw; both parties’ polling suggests the Liberals are in “a losing position” in the Sydney seat of Reid and the Perth seats of Pearce and Swan; Boothby in Adelaide is “leaning strongly Labor’s way”; Hasluck in Perth and Bass in Tasmania are “tightening”, presumably to Labor’s advantage; and the Brisbane seats of Ryan and Brisbane are “at risk”, as is Casey on the fringes of Melbourne, which I haven’t heard mentioned before. Parramatta and Macquarie in Sydney “are currently looking like staying with Labor”. The government’s anti-China rhetoric is also said to have resulted in a “plunge” in Liberal support among the Chinese community, harming it in Chisholm and putting Bennelong in play for Labor. For all that, the Liberals “remain confident of winning Gilmore” and are “lineball” in Corangamite. They are also “hopeful of seizing McEwen”, although “Labor sources query this”.
• In contrast to the previous assessment, Greg Brown of The Australian reports Liberal sources are “increasingly confident” that Gladys Liu will retain Chisholm and “believe Labor is shifting resources towards Higgins, where incumbent MP Katie Allen’s primary vote has dropped to 42%”. However, Paul Sakkal of The Age reports Labor believes it will win Chisholm while also having a “serious chance” in Higgins, and will “probably” retain McEwen, Corangamite and Dunkley. Sakkal further reports that Anthony Albanese will appear with Daniel Andrews today, defying suggestions he is keeping his distance from the Premier, to announce a promised $2.2 billion in federal funding for the Suburban Rail Loop, a state government project opposed by the Morrison government. The initial stage of the project will cut a north-south path through the eastern suburbs that will run neatly through Chisholm.
• Contrary to Clive Palmer’s earlier position that the United Australia Party would direct preferences against all sitting members, The Guardian reports how-to-vote cards being distributed at pre-poll voting centres have Liberal incumbents ahead of Labor in Chisholm, Reid and Bass, and ahead of teal independents in Mackellar and Wentworth.
• Nine’s endeavour to rate audience response to Sunday night’s debate eventually settled on a tied result between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese, although this was based on an uncontrolled exercise open to anyone who get the website form to work. The overwhelming view was the combative nature of the debate did neither protagonist any favours. A third debate will be held tomorrow night on the Seven Network.
“Sakkal further reports that Anthony Albanese will appear with Daniel Andrews today, defying suggestions he is keeping his distance from the Premier, to announce a promised $2.2 billion in federal funding for the Suburban Rail Loop, a state government project opposed by the Morrison government. The initial stage of the project will cut a north-south path through the eastern suburbs that will run neatly through Chisholm.”…
Oh dear, why would Albo and Dan “avoid” each other?…. Ridiculous!…. One is an excellent Premier of Victoria, who has magnificently led the state during a serious pandemic and survived the most disgusting and concerted Coalition&Mates political propaganda campaign to get rid of him (and defeat Labor in Victoria); and the other is the coming PM of Australia, a member of the Labor “left”, visiting the most Progressive state in the country!
In Brisbane this week for a conference, and I saw a banner hanging off an overpass over the very busy Inner City Bypass: “SCOMO LEFT US TO BURN”.
There’s definitely some anger here in Brisbane.
“National Security credentials” is a thin and narrow plank for Mr Morrison. AUKUS vs French Subs and the Chinese Solomons? The cartoons almost draw themselves.
Feels more like 1910 to me.
Bert, we did that yesterday for the same reason. The emotional release was worth every one of our minutes standing in the rain without our forgotten umbrellas. Cheers.
Forget 2007.
Forget 1983.
Forget 1972.
Turning back the Clock, despite not being born until 1956, it seems like 1941.
The country is divided, the Federal Government is incompetent, The PM is loathed and the media was still biased towards the Conservatives.
Who did Australia turn to: The ALP, of course.
Then led by a man, even written off by his party as a useless drunken sod with little charisma, who aided by his train driving mate, Ben Chifley, formed and led the greatest administration that this country has ever elected… the modest John Curtin.
Albanese may not have the character flaws of Curtin, but he is still facing many of the challenges which confronted Curtin – and like Curtin with his humble origins – Albo will prevail.
Alpo says:
Oh dear, why would Albo and Dan “avoid” each other?…. Ridiculous!….
________________
Dan is not that popular in some strong Labor seats. The UAP vote will reflect how deep that is.
Albo is like a new born baby at the moment, he doesn’t want to get exposed to anyone who he might catch something from.
Steve777says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:44 am
”An odd effort from the Murdoch tabloids today… have they given up?”
Maybe Newscorp has decided to reset its attacks for the last part of the campaign, given that what they were doing wasn’t working.
Cynical view: hoping the readers/low-information headline scanners at the supermarket will decide no news is good news and blue skies and vote status quo, or forget that there’s an election on until reminded again by the last-minute mud-lobbing before blackout?
Or possibly they’re getting cranky landline calls from the constituency that both reads the CM/votes ALP and/or the politically-disengaged-and-sick-of-it-all, both threatening to cease their subscriptions once and for all (a sentiment aired by the Warrigal elder) ….
Albo put in a workperson-like performance with PK just now. First part was standard polliespeak avoiding giving any commitment or non-commitment to anything whatsoever. He warmed up and became more personable and engaged in the last part. There was a question that could have been intepreted as pretty snide – as in WTTE “SfM has Jenny by his side, keeping him real. Who do you have to keep you real”? Albo dealt with it well.
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 7:34 am
Due to cost blow outs that 2.2 billion is like a drop in the ocean for the suburban rail loop.
God knows what the final cost is going to be.
I agree Labor should have at least matched the 5 billion the Liberals spent for no subs.
From Dawn Patrol
According to Paul Sakkal, a federal Labor government would chip in at least $2.2 billion for Victorian Labor’s Suburban Rail Loop, opening up a gulf with the Morrison government, which has argued that the project does not “stack up”.
The Morrison Government shells out billions without process, accountability or transparency to boost their reelection chances and to advance interests that they favour. Since when did they worry about anything stacking up?
P.S. I consulted “stack up” in the Coalition-Murdoch dictionary. It has a couple of meanings:
1. Increases Coalition vote
2. Helps Coalition mates
Now it makes sense.
The more Albo can do to remind voters – including those in Chisholm – that the Liberals would not fund the Suburban Rail Loop the better. All that $ going to city shaping mass transit infrastructure is $ not going to Liberal developer mates in Fisherman’s Bend. Guy certainly had a red hot go to funnel money to them when he was Planning Minister. It must be driving Liberals crazy to see public money being used for public benefit.
Inexplicably the coalition were given three cracks at it, and each go was a complete and total disaster.
The highlight of three terms and three prime ministers is the non-existent subs for $5 billion dollars.
The low lights are to many to mention.
It seems perhaps three strikes they are out.
max says:
Tuesday, May 10, 2022 at 8:01 am
Albo put in a workperson-like performance with PK just now.
PK just came across as obnoxious and rude. I can understand why Morrison just walks away.
Albo wins because he is polite and keeps plugging away. When the press Gallery yells, gotcha, the audience seems to be responding; really.
After the interview with Albo it was Crow and PK, two of the press Gallery interviewing each other, empty blather from beginning to end.
The Australian press gallery really are a sad and totally out of control lot.
What’s with Chisholm and the bookies? Nowhere to be seen again today.
Theres a story on the Front page of the Dead Tree edition of the Advertiser, which expands on page 7 about Rowan Ramsay in Grey charging taxpapers for staying in his own home and attending a football match. Nice bit of controversy for him 10 days out
Catherine Deves Vs trans gets about 5 minutes air time on the ABC. Why?
Morning all. “National security credentials” from Morrison is on a par with Abbott’s “people skills” for credibility factor.
With our subs, frigates and APCs all now 20 to 40 years old and not replaced, no helicopters flying, and China closer, does anyone feel more secure now?
It isn’t only waste and failed contracts that get ignored in defence either. Dutton is still sitting on six reports related to war crimes inquiries for overr a year.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/peter-duttons-department-confirms-defence-minister-has-six-brereton-oversight-reports
UnAustralian:
The Dark Lord Peter Dutton has called upon Labor leader Anthony Albanese to ask him what the measurement’s are for the Opposition leader’s office.
”I called Anthony and just wanted to know how big his office is, as in 7 weeks time I want to be sure that all my stuff fits in there,” said he who can’t be named. ”As Minister for the Dark Arts I have quite a spacious office so not sure if I can fit it all in an Opposition leader’s office.”
”If not, then I’m sure one of my many underlings will be happy to give me their office space.”
Bludgertrack has the latest Roy Morgan Primary votes for ALP and LNC the wrong way around.
Labor’s Primary is in the Liberal’s column?
Is the Roy Morgan methodology change a form of herding?
nath: “Dan is not that popular in some strong Labor seats. The UAP vote will reflect how deep that is.”
Every poll that I’ve seen of Vic has the Andrews gov having either more or the same support that they did when they thumped the LNP at the last state election. If you have polling that shows otherwise, I’d love to see it.
I want to place a sizeable bet on Monique Ryan for Kooyong. Where can I go for a summary of current Kooyong specific polls?
Maybe the NSW police should be policing more instead of pursuing Friendly Jordies:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-10/20-million-cocaine-drug-diver-body-found-hunter-river-police/101051780
Poor guy must had heart failure lugging 50 kilos of Cacaine around.
nath @ #NaN Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 5:59 am
Obviously, as they are getting togther today, that is not the case.
Goodie
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/09/russian-ambassador-to-poland-sergey-andreev-pelted-with-red-paint-at-ve-day-gathering
Thanks BK!
Is the Roy Morgan methodology change a form of herding?
They’ve changed their method to be consistent with those of most other pollsters. They’ve explained the change, it seems to be reasonable and the results look more believable, so I’d say no.
It a bit strange this ‘allocating preferences based on the last election rather than what the respondent wants’ method. It’s like saying ‘this is not how you’ll vote, this is how you’ll vote’. Weird.
Oh dear!
Changing to last election preference flows is a good change.
“Every poll that I’ve seen of Vic has the Andrews gov having either more or the same support that they did when they thumped the LNP at the last state election. If you have polling that shows otherwise, I’d love to see it.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-loses-ground-but-andrews-still-preferred-premier-poll-shows-20220406-p5ab6i.html
Lower Labor PV than last election. Bonham estimated 2PP at 55.5, which is a swing against from last election. Still a win, but your criteria is polling that shows Labor otherwise than ‘more or the same’.
Has any consideration been given to voters in those Victorian State seats at the base of the Dandenongs, who returned Liberal Members to the State parliament and Liberal Members to the Federal Parliament are now the ones supporting Palmer and “freedom”?
This is the Bible Belt of Melbourne
Aside from the State seat of Bayswater at the last State election they have never voted Labor
Look at the electoral map both State and federally
Labor”s landslide win at the last State election was courtesy of the sand belt seats and the inner east so Hawthorn, Box Hill and Ringwood along the level crossing seats
Get out further than that and you are solid Bible Belt regardless of level crossing removals
These Bible Seats are also the power base of Sukkar and Bastiaan and, thru stacking, give them control of the Victorian Division
shellbell
Thank you. Visually as powerful as it gets, IMO.
As every single Pole would know full well, Bucha is a baby Katyn.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre
“They’ve changed their method to be consistent with those of most other pollsters. They’ve explained the change, it seems to be reasonable and the results look more believable, so I’d say no.”
Isn’t changing your methodology to match everyone else so you achieve “more believable” results basically the definition of herding?
Andrews and Albo probably didnt want to spark another scandal. Who can forget Albo coming to Melbourne a few months back and cooking a bbq with Andrews.
The fiberals were outraged. Claiming it was a fake cook out.
Lol.
somethinglikethat @ #52 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 7:52 am
And then get flooded! 😀
I’m torn regarding Peter Dutton becoming the next LOTO. On the one hand he could run his party and it’s prospects into the ground through his ultra right hard line posture.- Leading to a potential formal split of the Libs. But on the other he could be a Tony Abbott style attack dog who wakes up every morning thinking only of new ways of how he can bring down the sitting Labor government and nothing else. Just on Dutton, his blatantly xenophobic ways have always made me curious as to what his own ethnicity is comprised of. Does anyone have any info on that?
Victoria @ #83 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:34 am
*cough* Raw Chicken Curry. 😀
Yes Clive and Craig Kelly will con a few extra plonkers in Victoria and profit through electoral funding money.
The suburban rail link is an excellent investment along with level crossing removals.
Thanks , BK.
Morrison and his cronies continue to show why they know they are toast at the upcoming federal election, all they are funding is defence and for their donors nothing for the every day Australian.
Thanks for the roundup BK. The coverage of the debate is interesting. Regardless of whether it is reported as a draw or Albo victory, Morrison is consistently reported as shouty and bullying. In a poor format that left little of substance to compare, I think those impressions are what people take away.
Also just noticing Williams’s article on the Morgan poll and the SA 2pp figure. Go Sturt! Hope lives for a local end to fascist rule. I am actually looking forward to handing out PVs. Xanthippe and I are also doing a session of pre-polling.
Clive is pretty smart when you think about it. Creates a political party as one big elaborate shim sham to protect his vast mining interests from ever being subject to a federal ALP gov. Spend tens of millions on advertising and then get most of it back through the AEC. Rise and repeat every 3 years.
ltep, I lie down corrected. (still in bed).
Still an absolute belting (55.5 2PP). If the ALP win federally, i do expect a tightening though.
As long as the ALP win government it might be better in the long run if both Dutton and Frydenberg survive (if we cant boot both)…..A messy contest for LOTO which F wins, but D is ever lurking in the background stabbing, destabalising challenging etc….Giving Albo a nice run in his first term
Pi,
https://www.smh.com.au/national/resolve-political-monitor-20210322-p57cvx.html
2018 Election: Labor 42.86% PV.
15/1/2022 Lab 41%, Lib 31%,
3/4/2022 Lab 37%, Lib 33%
Vic Labor PV is down about 6% on last election.
Pi @ #71 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:24 am
Of course, nath doesn’t. He just does spurious assertions in a pathetic attempt to blackguard Labor people he personally doesn’t like.
bakunin @ #94 Tuesday, May 10th, 2022 – 8:42 am
And it’s gone to the big fat charlatans, Clive Palmer and Craig Kelly who have bought the fealty of the easily brainwashed.
From the Guardian:
Two Russian journalists working for a popular pro-Kremlin website filled it with anti-war articles on Monday morning in a rare act of dissent as the country celebrated the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
The articles on Lenta.ru called President Vladimir Putin a “pitiful paranoid dictator” and accused him of waging “the bloodiest war of the 21st century”.
“We had to do it today. We wanted to remind everyone what our grandfathers really fought for on this beautiful Victory Day – for peace,” said 30-year-old Egor Polyakov, one of the two journalists.
I’m hoping the Morgan poll was accurate before they changed their methodology.