First things first:
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday looking at how-to-vote cards, preference deals and the media coverage attendant to them. It considers a claim by Greg Sheridan of The Australian that any teal independent victories will be owed to ovine fealty to how-to-vote cards on the part of Labor and Greens voters; Labor’s decision to put the United Australia Party ahead of the Greens in central Queensland seats, in sharp contrast to its treatment of the party everywhere else; and One Nation’s tokenistic direction of preferences against the Liberals in five seats, without endangering Pauline Hanson’s second placement on the Liberal National Party Senate ticket in Queensland. Had I held back a day, I might have been able to note the latest full-page United Australia Party advertisements proclaiming &8220;Labor are preferencing the Liberal Party”.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports the Liberals are boosting resources in the Labor-held seat of McEwen in outer Melbourne. However, Labor sources say they expect to retain the Victorian seats that have become the source of media chatter over the past week, the others being Corangamite and Dunkley, as “national concerns over cost of living and antipathy towards Mr Morrison” are registering as strongly here as anywhere else.
• The Australian reports the Liberals are newly concerned that the normally safe Brisbane seat of Ryan will be lost to Labor. There has also been increasing talk that the Greens could prove competitive in both Ryan and neighbouring Brisbane, together with Labor-held Griffith immediately to the south.
• Alice Workman of The Australian reports “independent polling conducted over the phone, towards the end of April” shows Liberal candidate Jenny Ware on a low enough primary vote to put her in danger of losing Hughes to independent Georgia Steele. Liberal sources are quoted saying Ware is “on the nose with locals after being picked by Scott Morrison to run, against the wishes of rank-and-file branch members”. Assuredly not in contention is the seat’s incumbent, Craig Kelly, notwithstanding United Australia Party advertising proclaiming him the “next Prime Minister of Australia”.
• The Age/Herald today reports that this week’s Resolve Strategic poll showed 32% rated the Coalition as best to manage the Solomon Islands issue compared with 29% for Labor.
Now, by popular demand, a post probing into this site’s popular BludgerTrack poll aggregate, for which a permanent link can be found on the sidebar. This presently suggests Labor holds a lead of 54.0-46.0 on two-party preferred, which I don’t think anyone seriously expects to be actual result at the election. It does, however, show a narrowing trend commencing slightly before the onset of the campaign period, though not sufficient to suggest any chance of the Coalition closing the gap. Given the record low support for the major parties, the Coalition can at least hope that parity on two-party preferred need not be required to at least hold on to minority government – and also for another pollster failure like that in 2019 (the likelihood of which is considered in a post by Mark the Ballot).
BludgerTrack is one of a number of endeavours around the place that seek to plot a signal through the noise of federal opinion polling, together with one on the Wikipedia federal election page maintained by a user called Canley; Twitter user @Gergyl’s regular posts aggregating trends both short-range and long-range; and semi-regular blog posts from the aforementioned Mark the Ballot. That’s aside from the sites Armarium Interreta and Buckleys and None which, together with Professor Simon Jackman’s betting odds model, are tracking the horse race in other ways.
BludgerTrack and its close relatives, each of which produce very similar results, use LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) functions to trace a path through the data points that keeps the distance between the path and the points at an appropriate level. The degree of tolerance for this difference is set by a smoothing parameter, which produces something resembling a straight line if set too high, and zooms all over the place in response to each individual poll result if set too low. The industry standard for determining the Goldilocks point is called the Akaike information criterion, which I use (thanks to a library available for the R statistics package) without really understanding its mathematical intricacies.
The data points themselves consist of every opinion poll of voting intention published since July 2019 by YouGov/Newspoll, Essential Research, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic and, just recently, Ipsos, which are weighted according to their perceived accuracy and adjusted to smooth out the peculiarities of each series. My methods here are quite a bit less presumptuous than they were before the pollster failure of 2019, when I imagined there was value in calibrating pollsters’ historic performances. I now assume that YouGov/Newspoll, the only pollster with any track record to speak of since 2019, is essentially free of bias, and calculate other pollsters’ biases based on the extent to which they deviate from a trend measure of it. These are halved so the peculiarities of each pollster have at least some weight in the overall result, rather than it being totally centred around Newspoll. The biggest change made is to Resolve Strategic’s Labor vote, which is increased by over two points. All other adjustments amount to less than one point.
Each pollster gets a weighting based partly on how much bias adjustment they’re being loaded up with, but mostly on my subjective impression of how accurate they’re likely to be, together with consideration of how frequently they report. The latter ensures the aggregate doesn’t get overwhelmed by the more prolific polling series. The most heavily weighted pollster at the moment is actually Ipsos, which is a (presumably) high-quality pollster that has so far produced only two polls released several weeks about. However, the mainstay of the series, Newspoll, is not far behind – a Resolve Strategic poll is worth about half a Newspoll, and an Essential Research (the most prolific series over the current term) and a Roy Morgan (which has a dubious track record) are worth about a quarter each.
Where BludgerTrack goes deeper than its rivals is in providing state breakdowns (together with leadership ratings). This is done using trend measures of each state’s deviation from the national results, which are then combined with the national trends (excepting Tasmania, for which next to no state-level data is published). Unfortunately, only Ipsos offers complete state data for each poll, as the others don’t care to have their small sub-samples held up to scrutiny their margins of error can’t bear. Essential Research comes close, but it smooths results for the smaller states by publishing three-poll rolling averages. Newspoll has always dealt with the issue by publishing state-level aggregates on a quarterly basis, which are a big deal for BludgerTrack when they come along (it would be nice to see one soon). Resolve Strategic only goes as deep as Queensland, and Roy Morgan’s are not used as they only provide two-party preferred at state level, whereas BludgerTrack works off primary votes.
I thought the ABC was pro Morrison? That’s what I heard here anyway.
spears interrupting again.
Speers is making a fool of himself.
Albo,is getting the hang of just continuing talking whilst Speers interrupts
@upnorth indeed, Howard won a number of elections because he was seen to be a safe pair of hands, not because he was charismatic or that personally popular.
Independent ABC audience claps Albo on queue! Hilarious!
Albo doing much better as he gets into it.
This is obviously a young labor crowd, love it.
After The Liar gaslighting with his God-given charisma for 4 years, having a humble PM like Honest Albo will be a relief for the people
Lars you sound upset that Albo’s one .an show is going well.
Need tissues?
Should be good for Albo’s confidence.
[Henrysays: Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:19 pm
This is obviously a young labor crowd, love it.]
Plenty of older people there.
I think Albanese must be a lot better one on one, or in informal groups. His public communication skills are OK but not that great.
As it stands, I think Labor will win somewhere between ‘a few’ and ‘10 or so’ seats. Enough to form government anyway. The Tories only real hope is a humungus negative campaign on economic management but for some reason they don’t seem to be going all-in.
As a Queenslander I would still be surprised to see any more than 2 seats fall to Labor in Q and in fact think no change is probably still the most likely State result.
Applause for Albo is now coming fast and steady…
David Speers will get a phone call from some Liberal “faceless man” tonight: “Mate, what the hell have you done… didn’t you read the memo?”
Apparently the SkyNews audience are jeering ScoMo…
Just Joshing….
Mr M – nah , kind of proves the point. An ABC audience is going to skew Labor just like a Sky Audience skews Libs.
Albo needs a confidence boost – he could blow it in the debates if he performs like he did in the first 20 minutes tonight with ScoMo on 9 or 7.
young lib plant
LSchlep
I am, as always, happy to go on record with my prediction, because it is based on the marginal seat betting market (as always) not plucked out of a place where nematodes like to feed.
Not one of you that was here last election predicted 69 seats. Not. One. Bilbo even got it wrong. Some of you, as you have for the last five federal elections, predicted north of 80 or even 90 seats. Now, you see, that is evidence of delusion right there.
Even today, look at the contortions to downplay Albo’s gaffe. Sure, I don’t think it will severely damage the election. It just won’t feature heavily on Social Media enough, I’d predict. However, for political tragics, like you all, it should matter a great deal. You think Keating, or Rudd or Hawke would forget key policies like that, or stammer around instead of jamming a question right back at that reporter instead? Really? If he can’t handle a campaign, he can’t handle the daily barrage he’ll get running the place.
Just not up to the job.
Blue Pill has a hard on over #GaffeGate
@sprocket_ – the poor thing is stuck in 2019 and thinks Morrison is a cleanskin without the last three wasted years with NOTHING to show for it.
Albo won the first debate on Sky. Even Bolt awarded it to him. The big headline the next day post debate was Morrison apologising for his awkward comment about children with special needs. Factor that in for next debates.
Almost one hour and no ‘gaffes’ –
I think those who are contemplating changing their vote to Labor aren’t looking for charisma; they’re looking for a reassuring safe pair of hands. Charisma got them used car saleman Slomo and they don’t want that now.
Albo is literally socking it to them.
Barney
“Which isotope?”
Ahem, didn’t pass Chemistry either did you? There is no change to the number of electrons at all in isotopes. They vary only in the number of Neutrons. Thus Carbon 12, 13 and 14 all have the same number in their outer shell, in Group IVA: 4 electrons.
Independent ABC audience claps Albo on
queuecue!Hilariousappropriate!sprocket_ says:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:27 pm
Almost one hour and no ‘gaffes’ –
_________________________
Is that the K.P.I now? God help us!
Mr President we have Albo on the phone!
Uncle Joe and Albo could trade gaffes
Bluepill
Please offer me $2 for Labor and I’ll be happy to take your money.
It is some number of years since I watched Q&A
I have watched 10 minutes of it tonight
The host says more than the guest – including by incessant interruptions
Turned off
In regards Aged Care, where you have a small bedroom and communal facilities, my wife this week visited a 90 year old Aunty in a privately owned Aged Care
She had to line up to enter the facility
Then complete a questionnaire re health status
Then mask up
All courtesy of a Pandemic and a vulnerable demographic where risk must be strictly managed for obvious reasons
Then get to meet with her Aunty
There was one Nurse – for the 33 residents – overseeing the process my wife was required to observe
My wife spoke with the Nurse because her Aunty required attention during the visit
The Nurse informed that she was under enduring and constant pressure in attending the needs of the 33 residents – and it was telling on her
This is not a school where students can be organised and where those students are capable of looking after their own physical needs
These are older people with a range of requirements – including due to mobility issues
They can not self manage their basic needs – 24/7
One nurse for 33 residents
And in an environment where you can not say “wait 15 minutes whilst I attend the needs of Mrs Smith”
We all get old
So just think about it
My wife is devastated when she visits commenting that old age is not something to look forward to and it is ugly
@sprocket_
Blue pill is Viagra.
Albo reminding the voters about the waste of hard-earned taxpayers’ money on defence projects incurred by the Coalition Federal government… the waste has produced nothing!… That’s not how you improve defence!
Defence is increased through expenditures that produce actual defence outcomes (not waste, as the Libs do all the time) and also through diplomatic contacts and international assistance that strengthen our position internationally …
The Solomons’ disaster that has occurred under the Liberals watch will not be forgotten.
bluepill @ #926 Thursday, May 5th, 2022 – 7:27 pm
But it does effect the mass.
Albo finished strong, up you Spears.
Governments don’t get better in their 4th term
And the audience loves Albo, the journalists, not so much
Albo should offer to come on every week
Albanese finishes with a zinger. The government of diminishing returns. 😀
“Here we go againsays:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:31 pm
It is some number of years since I watched Q&A
I have watched 10 minutes of it tonight
The host says more than the guest – including by incessant interruptions
Turned off”
Poor Speers has lost the plot…. Desperately trying to be the last one to throw a punch… Oops, no time left, Albo ended with a general applause…
That was a really light QandA, Bill Shorten got a better run, Speers is a fuckhead.
Ended well there Albo. Scomo will be a no-show. This Q&A was badly hosted…seemed like Speers was just throwing banana peels hoping he’d slip up.
Speers should shut the fuck up!
Demands Albo answer the audience question & continually interrupts with questions sidelining the audience.
jt1983:
Thursday, May 5, 2022 at 9:13 pm
[‘Frankly, I’ll take a win however it comes, but I believe it will be in a majority.’]
I admire your optimism and verily hope you’re right.
There was a couple of questions where albo could have stumbled – I think he was solid and got better by the end.
A few zingers and highlighted why people shouldn’t vote lnp.
I think he is unsure if he can form government but is quietly confident.
Why won’t scomo come on qanda – what does he have to hide?
Speers brings the ego and one eye from Sky, trying to make it about him.
bellwether
“@sprocket_
Blue pill is Viagra.”
What amazes me is the number of people here familiar with the product and its colour… Lots of floppy members perhaps. Reminds me of ALP MPs actually…
[psst… you are about 35 people too late on that joke… and I am still not offended] 🙂
They need to hide Albo he is more than capable of losing this.
This is a blood sport and the media pack smell blood.
He can’t hide behind his ministers for the rest of the campaign.
This is going to be far more interesting than I thought.
Audience questions: 11
Speers interruptions: 89
As Albo has said, “people have underestimated me my whole life.” It hasn’t stopped him yet
Albo sounded like he’s got the dreaded breathlessness that tends to linger with covid.