First things first:
• I had a piece in Crikey yesterday looking at how-to-vote cards, preference deals and the media coverage attendant to them. It considers a claim by Greg Sheridan of The Australian that any teal independent victories will be owed to ovine fealty to how-to-vote cards on the part of Labor and Greens voters; Labor’s decision to put the United Australia Party ahead of the Greens in central Queensland seats, in sharp contrast to its treatment of the party everywhere else; and One Nation’s tokenistic direction of preferences against the Liberals in five seats, without endangering Pauline Hanson’s second placement on the Liberal National Party Senate ticket in Queensland. Had I held back a day, I might have been able to note the latest full-page United Australia Party advertisements proclaiming &8220;Labor are preferencing the Liberal Party”.
• Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review reports the Liberals are boosting resources in the Labor-held seat of McEwen in outer Melbourne. However, Labor sources say they expect to retain the Victorian seats that have become the source of media chatter over the past week, the others being Corangamite and Dunkley, as “national concerns over cost of living and antipathy towards Mr Morrison” are registering as strongly here as anywhere else.
• The Australian reports the Liberals are newly concerned that the normally safe Brisbane seat of Ryan will be lost to Labor. There has also been increasing talk that the Greens could prove competitive in both Ryan and neighbouring Brisbane, together with Labor-held Griffith immediately to the south.
• Alice Workman of The Australian reports “independent polling conducted over the phone, towards the end of April” shows Liberal candidate Jenny Ware on a low enough primary vote to put her in danger of losing Hughes to independent Georgia Steele. Liberal sources are quoted saying Ware is “on the nose with locals after being picked by Scott Morrison to run, against the wishes of rank-and-file branch members”. Assuredly not in contention is the seat’s incumbent, Craig Kelly, notwithstanding United Australia Party advertising proclaiming him the “next Prime Minister of Australia”.
• The Age/Herald today reports that this week’s Resolve Strategic poll showed 32% rated the Coalition as best to manage the Solomon Islands issue compared with 29% for Labor.
Now, by popular demand, a post probing into this site’s popular BludgerTrack poll aggregate, for which a permanent link can be found on the sidebar. This presently suggests Labor holds a lead of 54.0-46.0 on two-party preferred, which I don’t think anyone seriously expects to be actual result at the election. It does, however, show a narrowing trend commencing slightly before the onset of the campaign period, though not sufficient to suggest any chance of the Coalition closing the gap. Given the record low support for the major parties, the Coalition can at least hope that parity on two-party preferred need not be required to at least hold on to minority government – and also for another pollster failure like that in 2019 (the likelihood of which is considered in a post by Mark the Ballot).
BludgerTrack is one of a number of endeavours around the place that seek to plot a signal through the noise of federal opinion polling, together with one on the Wikipedia federal election page maintained by a user called Canley; Twitter user @Gergyl’s regular posts aggregating trends both short-range and long-range; and semi-regular blog posts from the aforementioned Mark the Ballot. That’s aside from the sites Armarium Interreta and Buckleys and None which, together with Professor Simon Jackman’s betting odds model, are tracking the horse race in other ways.
BludgerTrack and its close relatives, each of which produce very similar results, use LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) functions to trace a path through the data points that keeps the distance between the path and the points at an appropriate level. The degree of tolerance for this difference is set by a smoothing parameter, which produces something resembling a straight line if set too high, and zooms all over the place in response to each individual poll result if set too low. The industry standard for determining the Goldilocks point is called the Akaike information criterion, which I use (thanks to a library available for the R statistics package) without really understanding its mathematical intricacies.
The data points themselves consist of every opinion poll of voting intention published since July 2019 by YouGov/Newspoll, Essential Research, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic and, just recently, Ipsos, which are weighted according to their perceived accuracy and adjusted to smooth out the peculiarities of each series. My methods here are quite a bit less presumptuous than they were before the pollster failure of 2019, when I imagined there was value in calibrating pollsters’ historic performances. I now assume that YouGov/Newspoll, the only pollster with any track record to speak of since 2019, is essentially free of bias, and calculate other pollsters’ biases based on the extent to which they deviate from a trend measure of it. These are halved so the peculiarities of each pollster have at least some weight in the overall result, rather than it being totally centred around Newspoll. The biggest change made is to Resolve Strategic’s Labor vote, which is increased by over two points. All other adjustments amount to less than one point.
Each pollster gets a weighting based partly on how much bias adjustment they’re being loaded up with, but mostly on my subjective impression of how accurate they’re likely to be, together with consideration of how frequently they report. The latter ensures the aggregate doesn’t get overwhelmed by the more prolific polling series. The most heavily weighted pollster at the moment is actually Ipsos, which is a (presumably) high-quality pollster that has so far produced only two polls released several weeks about. However, the mainstay of the series, Newspoll, is not far behind – a Resolve Strategic poll is worth about half a Newspoll, and an Essential Research (the most prolific series over the current term) and a Roy Morgan (which has a dubious track record) are worth about a quarter each.
Where BludgerTrack goes deeper than its rivals is in providing state breakdowns (together with leadership ratings). This is done using trend measures of each state’s deviation from the national results, which are then combined with the national trends (excepting Tasmania, for which next to no state-level data is published). Unfortunately, only Ipsos offers complete state data for each poll, as the others don’t care to have their small sub-samples held up to scrutiny their margins of error can’t bear. Essential Research comes close, but it smooths results for the smaller states by publishing three-poll rolling averages. Newspoll has always dealt with the issue by publishing state-level aggregates on a quarterly basis, which are a big deal for BludgerTrack when they come along (it would be nice to see one soon). Resolve Strategic only goes as deep as Queensland, and Roy Morgan’s are not used as they only provide two-party preferred at state level, whereas BludgerTrack works off primary votes.
Isn’t the term ‘Chinese whispers’ racist now?
Sorry, I’m not serious!
What is with the Chinese characters?
The “Curious-Snail” has a half and half bet.
“Yet another very public stumble, this time on his own NDIS policy, will be a blow to Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s confidence and his public image just as he needed build on the momentum he gained.
This wasn’t a “gotcha” question, it was about his party’s own six-point plan on which he spoke to the day before.
After a shocking first week, not knowing the jobless rate or cash rate, stumbling on his health policy costing and position on offshore processing, he found his footing.
Mr Albanese won the first debate, he went on the attack over aged care and appeared to hit his stride before he was struck down for a week by Covid-19.
Labor gained ground during this time as some of the frontbench talent were given a chance to shine – gaffe-free.
This is not a killer blow for the Opposition Leader, far from it.
But it adds to the perception that he is not across the detail, not reading his briefings and doesn’t understand policy.
It’s not his first fumble, or even his second or third.
After a solid campaign launch on Sunday and coming into the start of pre-poll next week he should be “kicking with the wind”, to borrow one of his own phrases. ”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-not-a-killer-blow-but-further-evidence-albo-not-across-his-brief/news-story/e0ad1d90097452cab1a4745bcb581033?amp
Still trying the “Khaki Election” – notice The Hunter gets a mention.
“Australians will be trained to fill skill shortages in the nation’s booming defence manufacturing industry under a $108.5 million Coalition pledge, as Scott Morrison moves to “calm” tensions with the Solomons over security concerns.
The Prime Minister will be in Western Australia on Friday where he will announce training programs across 14 regions in Australia, from maritime skills in Sydney, Melbourne, Tasmania, Cairns or Adelaide to aerospace in the Hunter, Brisbane or land expertise in Geelong and Darwin.
Mr Morrison said the funding would support 1,500 workers obtain a nationally accredited Certificate III in Defence Industry Pathways.
“Our investment in building the capabilities of Australia’s defence force is about keeping our country strong and secure and backing local skills and jobs,” Mr Morrison said.
“The skills and knowledge this program will give to graduates will set them up for a career in defence equipment manufacturing technology, and set them up for life.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/election-2022-live-pm-reveals-108m-plan-to-invest-in-defence-jobs/news-story/ea3bc2b93546c3dfe7452ec5df6f0ff1?amp
Oh dear – how will Scotty explain this? Enrolment fraud by his candidate?? Could have our first dis-endorsement folks from a major party.
“The LNP candidate for Queensland’s most marginal seat has provided false evidence to the electoral commission by claiming he lives in his electorate when the address is in fact an abandoned, unfurnished and dilapidated house.
The Australian can reveal Vivian Lobo, who is standing in the ultra-marginal seat of Lilley in the northern suburbs of Brisbane, is actually living in a stylish Queenslander with city views a 23-minute drive away in the upmarket suburb of Windsor.
His home is in the neighbouring electorate of Brisbane, held by Liberal MP Trevor Evans.
The address Mr Lobo provided to the Australian Electoral Commission as his residence is a property in Everton Park, within the seat of Lilley, where he is running as the Liberal National Party candidate and challenging the incumbent Labor MP Anika Wells, who holds the seat with only a 0.6 per cent margin.
“Enrolment fraud occurs if an elector makes a false claim for enrolment, for example using a false name or address,” the AEC’s website states.
“The offence provisions relevant to this activity are found in the Criminal Code Act 1995. In particular, ss. 136 and 137 provide that it is an offence to give false or misleading documents or information to a Commonwealth Officer in purported compliance with a Commonwealth law.
“The penalty specified in the Criminal Code for these offences is 12 months imprisonment,” the website states.”
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/election-2022-sprung-the-fake-home-of-lnp-election-hopeful-vivian-lobo/news-story/e75a04adf95e6411ca7c8542d4ce4bc3
Upnorth at 12.04am
You probably know – the Hunter has significant Defence infrastructure (air base, army base, Chinese subs – whoops!)
Months ago, Morrison visited Williamtown RAAF Base and had red carpet rolled out on tarmac – colour reserved for the Head of State. Wanker.
I don’t see this region as hopeful for the Coalition.
hazza4257 says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:00 am
What is with the Chinese characters?
中华人民共和国
Hazza – maaate – I have had more questions about my use of Putonghua than the superiority of XXXX over other beers. Said it all before – I am seeing if our Dear Leader (soon to me the Great Helmsman) is being undermined by Der Potato. Get with the program.
Hazza
What is with the Chinese characters?
—————————–
I think it’s meant to serve as an offbeat quote divider. It translates as the “People’s Republic of China”.
Upnorth at 12.10am
So much for the LNP, via Vivian Lobo, poaching Lilley!
BTW, there was a character in The Empire Strikes Back called Lobot.
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:11 am
Upnorth at 12.04am
You probably know – the Hunter has significant Defence infrastructure (air base, army base, Chinese subs – whoops!)
Months ago, Morrison visited Williamtown RAAF Base and had red carpet rolled out on tarmac – colour reserved for the Head of State. Wanker.
I don’t see this region as hopeful for the Coalition.
中华人民共和国
Good man Snappy Tom. That’s what I like to hear old mate. The Cats’ of Australia have made their choice and it ain’t Morrison.
mj says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:14 am
Hazza
What is with the Chinese characters?
—————————–
I think it’s meant to serve as an offbeat quote divider. It translates as the “People’s Republic of China”
中华人民共和国
mj you sly dog. Don’t rat on me to Dutton hey.
“Oh dear – how will Scotty explain this? Enrolment fraud by his candidate?? Could have our first dis-endorsement folks from a major party.”
So, even after the S44 debacle the Libs either STILL cant get their paperwork right, or they just dont think the rules will ever be applied to them. 🙁
Hope the bugger gets busted properly for this.
Anyway, Time for Leadership Scomo??
Snappy Tom says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:15 am
Upnorth at 12.10am
So much for the LNP, via Vivian Lobo, poaching Lilley!
BTW, there was a character in The Empire Strikes Back called Lobot.
中华人民共和国
Me thinks Lobo is a No No.
I’m glad I’m not living in Australia at the moment. You guys have gone nuts. Pauline Hanson – Mother of the Year? Well bugger me dead.
“One Nation leader Pauline Hanson been declared the surprise winner of a Mother of the Year award set up in the wake of the controversial decision by the Barnardos charity last year to ditch the prize.
Ms Hanson — a mother of four children and a stepdaughter — was chosen by the Christian organisation Family Voice as a “worthy recipient, given her commitment to family and the community and indeed Australia as a member of federal parliament”.
The politician and grandmother of six said she was totally surprised at the win and had no idea she was nominated, but was “very honoured”.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/one-nations-pauline-hanson-declared-mother-of-the-year/news-story/8ef2907be893348439dfb4fdd33e9d2b?amp
Upnorthsays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:17 am
mj says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:14 am
Hazza
What is with the Chinese characters?
—————————–
I think it’s meant to serve as an offbeat quote divider. It translates as the “People’s Republic of China”
中华人民共和国
mj you sly dog. Don’t rat on me to Dutton hey.
中华人民共和国
I’d rather you rat on Dutton.
Upnorthsays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:17 am
mj says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:14 am
Hazza
What is with the Chinese characters?
—————————–
I think it’s meant to serve as an offbeat quote divider. It translates as the “People’s Republic of China”
中华人民共和国
mj you sly dog. Don’t rat on me to Dutton hey.
中华人民共和国
I’d rather you rat on Dutton.
mj says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:34 am
Upnorthsays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:17 am
mj says:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:14 am
Hazza
What is with the Chinese characters?
—————————–
I think it’s meant to serve as an offbeat quote divider. It translates as the “People’s Republic of China”
中华人民共和国
mj you sly dog. Don’t rat on me to Dutton hey.
中华人民共和国
I’d rather you rat on Dutton.
中华人民共和国
Trying me best cobber. Keep safe matey.
William as to Sales Comment I heard it and so did others
https://twitter.com/JonesHowdareyou/status/1280052756276023299?s=20&t=4ZCwm4ZC3KKqPhLsqahKzg
Thank you very much for that information from Mark the Ballott very interesting.
So if this turns out to be a “generic federal election” the current aggregate polling 53.3 -1.25 for historical Labor bias in polling two weeks out and we get 52.05 Alp 2pp. That will do me for a prediction at this stage.
Of course the tricky bit is how that would actually shake out in the seat count, need to wait for a bit of liquidity to come into the seat betting markets before taking a guess at that.
Unfortunately for you, Greg, the entire broadcast is on YouTube. Every word of that tweet is pure bullshit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EK3majYFFok
Greg Ruddsays:
Friday, May 6, 2022 at 12:51 am
William as to Sales Comment I heard it and so did others
—————––———-
Can you provide evidence this was said? I never heard it. It sounds like it’s probably social media groupthink.
Greg Rudd, regardless of what right wing biased journalists have said, thought or not, I can tell you it is pretty clear to readers of this blog that there has been a long culture of personal abuse on this blog and it is clear why it is allowed as the moderator is happy to partake in it. That’s why I am out of here.
No doubt it was mean of me to imply that you were a cretin. I apologise. But you do believe very silly things that are obviously not true.
Salvage the Future, William could be more polite, however if you can’t provide evidence of the assertions you make then people will rightly call that out.
Relevant: https://www.google.com/search?q=star%20trek%20scotty%20i%20like%20this%20ship
For what it’s worth, I remember the debate between Rudd and Howard moderated by Speers in the 2007 election. He was considered to be a bit of a sycophant then. But I remember there was a question that he presented to Howard that clearly exposed him. The look on Howard’s face where it felt like it hurt his feelings that his selection had betrayed him. It happened right at the beginning.
Don’t know why this is still so clear to me.
Tbh I never really liked Kevin Rudd. He comes across as self serving, similar to Morrison, though much, much more substantive and intelligent.
MJ, Which is fine to be called out but honestly some of the lines are just caustic. I do not know what other silly things you claim to think I believe William. The only thing I could think of is Endagine Maccas which is a joke cos Morrison is so crap. I think I have contributed a unique and valid perspective to the blog in my short time of posting, when I am not just caught up in my ironic bad humour. I think I have a different class experience which defines my perspective differently to some others on this blog and has positioned me with a more radical perspective to some. I am political but I am not some sort of insider. I am an angry outsider but do not make assumptions I believe silly things, don’t think there is evidence there that can be pointed at. I have never personally abused anyone on the blog, my commentary targets the corrupt and powerful instead.
STF I’d like to see you keep posting. I think you mean well, and I get the angst.
As a Labor voter (and Labour voter in the UK) of advancing age, I am so sick of losing elections that my degree of jadedness has led me to display high levels of cynicism and sarcasm. Not just here but in general life as well. So I apologise if it is over the top.
That being said, I am glad I did not become a mother. If I had grandchildren, woe to any of their generation who wants to buy a home or a viable environment! I am glad that I will be dead before the Great Barrier Reef officially meets its Maker.
New thread.
Born a Ramblin Man.
C@tmomma love your reference to one of my all time favourite bands – The Allman Bros Band.
50 years on since Duane’s motor cycle crash – what a waste !
Shame they never toured Australia in their prime.
News Hour
South, are you referring to the US PBS broadcast?
SBS broadcasts its’ overnight news review each afternoon at 1.00 pm (AEST).
It has a good coverage of US and International news.
Oz headline: Sprung: the fake home of LNP election hopeful
A candidate in Queensland’s most marginal seat has provided false evidence to the electoral commission claiming he is living at an address in his electorate that is abandoned, unfurnished and dilapidated.