Note the post below from Adrian Beaumont on today’s momentous French presidential run-off election. Closer to home:
• As the Liberal Party divides on Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”. Whereas some rate this as “electoral madness”, an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”. Those of the latter view point to Boris Johnson’s success in the “red wall” of northern England and the epochal populist-driven realignments in the United States and France.
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports front-benchers on both sides have identified the following seats as “still in play”: “Reid, Gilmore and Parramatta in NSW; Corangamite, McEwen and Chisholm in Victoria; Swan, Pearce and Hasluck in WA; Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane in Queensland; and the Tasmanian trio of Bass, Braddon and Lyons”. This includes five seats held by Labor along with ten by the Coalition. A Labor source says they would “prefer to be us than them at this stage”, not least because the teal independent insurgency had the Coalition “fighting on two fronts”, but that defeat remained possible.
• Further to the above, former Queensland Labor state secretary Cameron Milner writes in The Australian that the Liberals are pursuing Labor-held Lilley in Brisbane, Lingiari in the Northern Territory (where Scott Morrison campaigned yesterday) and Corangamite in western Victoria. Milner also describes Scott Morrison’s support for Katherine Deves as “brilliant foghorn politics”, deployed to “virtue-signal their values” to One Nation and Clive Palmer voters whose preferences will be up for grabs. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.
• A Labor online attack against Gladys Liu, who holds the Melbourne seat of Chisholm for the Liberals on a margin of 0.5%, has been described as a “desperate, dishonest, racist attack ad” by Josh Frydenberg and a “sewer tactic” by Scott Morrison. While these claims are receiving sympathetic coverage from the news media, the contentions raised in the ad do not seem especially misleading.
• Ben Raue of The Tally Room has interactive colour-coded maps recording the extent to which seats have swung towards one major party or the other since 2004. It can be observed that Labor has strengthened in the growth areas of Melbourne but weakened in central Queensland and Sydney’s inner west and south.
• Following the publication of full candidate details on Friday, I have finished fleshing out my federal election guide with further photos, candidate details and full lists of candidates in ballot paper order.
Wasn’t there meant to be a News Poll out yesterday? Every week on Sunday isn’t it? Confused!
My pick
Labor primary 37%
Lib/nats combined primary 34%
Maybe others have offered this view already…
What if the federal Liberals are engaged in a similar internal civil war, just like has happened in their WA and SA divisions? Maybe we can narrow it down: maybe the civil war is over in places like WA/SA and is underway in NSW…
They have 3 factions: Moderates (e.g. Frydenberg), Hard Right (Dutton) and Religious Right (Morrison).
Is their shambolic campaign simply a symptom of an internal war?
Are we giving them too much credit for the Deves pre-selection, for example?
Are the Religious Nuts simply trying to purge NSW (in particular) of opponents? Or hold back a Hard Right takeover attempt and the devil take the Moderates?
Evan, BK (thinking of The Australian if there is a Newspoll out soon)
“Morrison maintains strong lead over absent Albanese”
small print – Labor 54-46
Interesting: seat predictions via stats
https://www.buckleysandnone.com/
[(2) That the LNP are out of options and that they are now decompensating and thrashing about]
They have bought out the boats… so maybe they have run out of idea…
The polls might change but up to now there is still a huge number of undecideds.
My view is that smoko is not liked but for Albo to comfortably get across the line he needs to have some announcements in the last 3 weeks that will attract those undecideds
Don’t you worry about that. Scotty and the Nats have some “wriggle room” when it comes to Climate Change, just like the mosquito wrigglers in the stagnant pond next me!
“An LNP candidate has cast doubt on the Coalition’s plan to reach net-zero by 2050, insisting Scott Morrison’s policy was not set in stone.
The Prime Minister unveiled his long-term vision to become carbon-neutral last October.
But while the government made an official commitment it did not enshrine the target in legislation.
It’s that factor Queensland candidate Colin Boyce has seized upon in his pitch to voters, designed to allay the fears about the net zero plan.
“(Scott) Morrison’s document is a flexible plan. It leaves us with wiggle room as we proceed into the future,” the former state MP for Callide told the ABC. ”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/federal-election/lnp-candidate-colin-boyce-says-netzero-plan-is-not-set-in-stone/news-story/67c9dd3c5534053e239fed65417b44ce
“And yet the ALP is not competitive in most of these Teal seats”
Not really true (the State seat corresponding to Kooyong fell to Labor in the Danslide for example, to show what can happen if the Liberal voters here are asked to vote for a Liberal Party too far to the right). Higgins was already a legitimate 3 cornered contest. In general these are seats which in a 2 party world have slowly inched towards the ALP as people’s distate for the Liberals on social policy and climate change has overtaken their preference for the Liberals on tax and economics. In a balance of power scenario they are not going to punish the Teals for backing Labor to achieve what they set out to achieve on climate and integrity as long as the Teals also use the balance of power – if they have it – to procure amendments on Labor economic and tax plans that are more Lib friendly.
One suspects that unlike a Greens balance of power where Labor was forced to piss off the bulk of Australia to placate the balance of power partner, placating the Teals may actually help Labor politically at times albeit frustrating the full agenda.
Anyway, it’s entirely possible for the Teals to get elected, have no balance of power, and simply get to cheerlead while Labor achieves their agenda without them and otherwise vote with the Libs on everything else. And it’s also entirely possible most or all of them (apart from Sharkie and Stegall, who are incumbents and not in lockstep with the rest of it) will simply fall short.
You’d have to think it likely in the last week or two of the campaign an unnamed NSW Lib will manage into the press’s hands a politically fatal piece of information that finishes off Morrison….
Thanks to those highlighting these two nerdy sites…
https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/
https://www.buckleysandnone.com/
I note ‘Buckleys’ includes a history of their seat projections. They have predicted a Labor majority as most likely outcome since mid-December (Omicron, anyone?)
In November, they predicted Labor most likely winning 74 to Coalition 70, so hung parliament.
At one level, those here arguing Morrison should have gone in November were both right and wrong. He would have had a better chance in November, but it probably did not look like a winning chance. Hence, he would take the extra months to do fabulous stuff and win the electorate over. Oh, wait…
Arky: and it’s also entirely possible for the Coalition to win a majority or near majority in their own right without the need of support from the Teals who are elected but powerless except as protest voices. More coal mines, more fossil fuel subsidies and more Tasmanian pineapples! Voila!
In regard the Quarantine facilities now being criticised as not required by right wing aligned media
The Nation was found out for having no quarantine facilities just over 2 years ago – forced to not fit for purpose hotels
The Nation now, at least, has a fit for purpose quarantine asset
In a World of a Pandemic
And in the face of any other threat which may arise into the future
The asset is also able to be deployed to other requirements in the interests of the Nation and its citizens
There is a raft of opinion in media which needs to be called out
Another example is infrastructure spending by State governments
The focus of certain media is debt
But these works are inter generational projects providing for future generations- and providing employment to our current generation over the years to complete such projects to operational status
So there is both current term and long term benefit to the economy
Instead certain media (or those they publish) restrict their opinion to cost
From SMH. It looks like the portrait of a comedy duo with the customary gormless funny man a straight man. Abbott and Costello ?
[Rex Douglas says: Monday, April 25, 2022 at 3:32 pm
You’d have to think it likely in the last week or two of the campaign an unnamed NSW Lib will manage into the press’s hands a politically fatal piece of information that finishes off Morrison….]
There have been several rumours in twitter that something is going to break this or next week that will derail the lnp campaign…
I’m not sure what it could be or if it’s even real.
Rex
Self-preservation if nothing else. If Morrison squeaks back in then NSW Libs are probably finished in March 2023.
Cronus @ Monday, April 25, 2022 at 1:04 pm
I was asking about opinions on Dutton in Defence yesterday. Thanks for the response!
Snappy Tom @ Monday, April 25, 2022 at 3:35 pm
I still maintain that Morrison should have gone in November. There was a very decent chance that he may have overcome the deficit in the 2PP in an election campaign with the media cheer squad.
What a coward 🙂
Zwaktyld
It seems that she’s bought up all the ad space that was bought up by Palmer last time around, i.e the bus stops and phone booths, same as in Kooyong.
One thing that I think may go under the radar at bit is an almost universal use of recreational drugs (besides alcohol which is universal) in the youth of all ethnicities. Literally the most right wing people I’ve ever met under the age of 35 are both consistent drug users and LGBT, which I guess proves how mysterious voting intentions are.
Griff
Would have gone late 2020 but then the Victoria second wave started to get under control and he lost his ‘Victoria and Labor are hopeless in the pandemic’ theme.
After Frydenberg had been laying the groundwork for him.
@Freya Stark
“Arky: and it’s also entirely possible for the Coalition to win a majority or near majority in their own right without the need of support from the Teals who are elected but powerless except as protest voices.”
If Teals get elected but Morrison has a majority without them something went extremely weird.
The theory is wealthy seats swinging towards the teals and suburban seats swinging from Labor to Coalition. It’s possible but no real reason to think this is likely.
The right wing media criticising quarantine centres as white elephants are being their usual short sighted selves, like criticism of Vic Labor’s desalination plant. Victoria couldn’t assume the drought would break when it did, and the nation can’t assume there will never be another pandemic!
Arky – it’s entirely possible. Coalition wins Lilley, Macquarie, Blair, Hunter, Shortland and maybe Corangamite and Lingiari on the back of the Deves Masterstroke. They lose 2-3 seats to Teals and maybe 2 to Labor (Swan and Boothby) nationwide. Returned with a majority but without Frydenburg. Dutton’s dream result!
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 1:00 pm
@Boer:
“ I saw a recent marine documentary with marine scientists doing a survey of the Galapagos Reefs. They showed footage of some of the 12 reefs that they claimed to be dead. They footage was, doubtless, selective but those reefs looked absolutely moribund. Not bleached. Dead – basically being invaded by algae taking over the substrate.”
Given your ‘take outs’ from watching this documentary, when compared to findings of the scientific study I linked, it appears to me that there was a fair bit of propaganda being peddled: ‘Climate Change! Climate Change!’
Which you have leveraged to ‘China! China! China!’
The 95% destruction of Galapagos corals happened exactly 40 years ago, during a protracted El Niño event. it’s pretty hard to lay all of THAT at the feet of CO2 emissions driven global climate change, let alone China which was still a largely agrarian peasant country back then.’
———————————————————
You are tilting at windmills. Not sure why. I made zero links between the Galapagos reefs and China. Reef death causes around the world are multivariate.
The include using dynamite and poison by fishers. That said, there is no doubt at all in my mind that climate change (heat, acidification, sea-leve rise, extreme weather evnts and all consequent biotic disruptions – perhaps COTS , for example) will over ride all other reef death causes.
The notion that Australia CAN do something about global (and Pacific) sea level rises and any consequent impact on the existence of Pacific Nations but that, on the contrary, sea level rise has got nothing significant to do with China currently increasing CO2 emissions is so basically ludicrous as to to be not worth consideration.
Deves masterstroke is a bit of a stretch.
@ Freya – oh, honey no.
a) Those seats really aren’t what you think they are.
b) If they didn’t fall in 2019 … highly unlikely they fall in this environment.
But keep keeping on!
BH
“ Some of my maternal and paternal Uncles didn’t march until after the Vietnam War. I loved watching the March as a kid and couldn’t understand my Uncles then. I did as an adult.”
I get it, I haven’t marched in 20 years.
Remember, McCain picking Sarah Palin was initially heralded as a master stroke.
Freya Stark says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Arky – it’s entirely possible. Coalition wins Lilley, Macquarie, Blair, Hunter, Shortland and maybe Corangamite and Lingiari on the back of the Deves Masterstroke. They lose 2-3 seats to Teals and maybe 2 to Labor (Swan and Boothby) nationwide. Returned with a majority but without Frydenburg. Dutton’s dream result!
If the LNP win Lilley, I will eat my hat. Corresponding State seat is safely Labor, and the sitting Lilley MP is extremely visible and hard working.
Honestly, no one in Queensland gives a rats about Deves and what she stands for. Most here wouldn’t have a clue she even exists.
Dutton says
“ “The only way you can preserve peace is to prepare for war, and to be strong as a country” Mr Dutton told Channel 9. Not to cower or be on bended knee or be weak. That’s the reality.”
Mr Dutton said the government had done that by boosting defence spending, as well as citing the government’s plan to build nuclear powered submarines and develop advanced military technology under the AUKUS pact. When asked about the lessons of Anzac Day, Mr Dutton warned that the prospect of conflict was not a distant one.”
Okay, so Dutton’s warning of possible imminent conflict with China yet there are massive delays in getting new frigates and submarines. WTF has he been doing then while cancelling every contract? His logic is bloody hopeless.
“Arky – it’s entirely possible. Coalition wins Lilley, Macquarie, Blair, Hunter, Shortland and maybe Corangamite and Lingiari on the back of the Deves Masterstroke. They lose 2-3 seats to Teals and maybe 2 to Labor (Swan and Boothby) nationwide. Returned with a majority but without Frydenburg. Dutton’s dream result”
Like I said, weird – a world where apparently there was this whole bunch of people who were going to vote Labor except that it turns out being shit to trans people is their most important election issue AND they weren’t already aware that the Libs will do that more than Labor.
It’s basically the stone cold reverse of the conventional wisdom that Morrison made his gains last time in working class seats (similar to Trump) by painting himself as the party of jobs and the other side as the party of spending all their time on culture wars involving tiny minorities.
If the Coalition brains trust thought this was a master-stroke they wouldnt have left it to a candidate who won’t even be in Parliament when this is all over and they would have run her somewhere they thought it actually played well.
Everything will look like a masterstroke after this election for the winning side.
If people want to vote out ScoMo they will, and they’ll overlook every tactic, plan , announcement to do so.
Rex,
I read a tweet suggesting that there will be something coming out that will blow smoko out of the water.
Whilst intrigued I think we should put that sort of thing into the let’s wait and see if it happens basket.
Having said that, I think May 21 is about 2 elections…the Federal —-Libs v ALP but also who controls the Lib party.
Just from reported internal negative views of smoko it seems that there is a preparedness of some Libs to lose the Federal election if thats what it takes to get rid of smoko and his cohort.
My guess on this is it will depend on polling.
If it looks as if smoko will lose then the disaffected Libs don’t have to do anything.
But if it gets close, then who knows what might happen
Sinking the subs at a cost of $5.5 billion, ditching 47 Taipans a decade before that was due to happen, not buying $1.3 billion worth of armed drones has made us weaker.
Storing our reserve oil in the United States has made us weaker.
Treating other nations with contempt has made us weaker.
Cutting foreign aid has made us weaker.
Cutting the Department of Foreign Affairs has made us weaker.
Getting the debt up to a trillion has made us weaker.
Sitting on duffs while China secured a Pact with Solomon Islands made us weaker.
Losing international standing by white-anting international climate action has made us weaker.
Having a corrupt and incompetent Government has made us weaker.
Endless attempts at division for political purposes has made us weaker.
Simplifying our economy has made us weaker.
Making us over dependent on o/s supply chains has made us weaker.
Lars stating obvious truisms as if they are brilliant insight and perspective.
Nothing changes on PB.
Maybe, one day, they will tell us all something we don’t know.
But, I doubt it.
Freya Starksays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 3:56 pm
Arky – it’s entirely possible. Coalition wins Lilley,…
—
Can I ask something? Why does everyone assume that the Trans issue would play well in Lilley, in particular? The area doesn’t seem like it’s particularly filled with any particular category of people that might fall within the target of such messaging.
I’m also certain a similar question applies for a number of other seats that frequently get brought up on this topic, but Lilley isn’t far from where I live, so it’s particularly strange to me.
Scott Morrison has taken the unusual step of breaking with ANZAC Day conventions by instead campaigning and posing for photo opportunities. On what is traditionally a sombre day of reflection for Australians, the PM posed and poured beers for news cameras.
@Freya Stark
LNP are $10 for Blair on sportsbet. I haven’t even seen the LNP’s canidate barely make a squeak in the media. Unless I’m missing something it seems some of your predictions are way off.
Rnm1953 @ Monday, April 25, 2022 at 4:16 pm
Good post.
Rex Douglas @ #505 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 3:32 pm
Add Brittany Higgins and Grace Tame into that equation and it will be interesting, They just need to time it well.
What were the betting odds of LNP picking up Longman in 2019?
The media should call out Scomo for campaigning on Anzac Day, but of course they won’t.
It helps when virtually all the media are backing this bloke, makes it hard for Team Albo.
Yes, Lars at 4.12pm, hindsight will be wonderfully accurate…or will it?
Election campaigns aren’t single issue referenda (the correct plural). Even 2001 wasn’t just about Sept 11 / Tampa.
1993 was probably a referendum. 2004 – ‘the handshake’ probably reinforced concerns about Latham, confirmed by his choices since!
2007 – was Rudd brilliant? Was it the ACTU’s ‘Your rights at work’?
So, I’ll go out on a limb: Labor have done almost everything they needed to or could since 2019. A second Bob Hawke would have sealed the deal by now, but none avalable in the timeframe (I’m very impressed with Jason Clare).
Labor to win about 80 seats, barring some strange unforeseeable event.
Cross bench to expand a bit.
Unfortunately, Dutton and Frydenberg probably hold on. The silver lining here is the potential for Liberal civil war to continue…
Sportsbet offered $26 for Labor winning ten or fewer seats in Queensland in 2019. Pity there was a limit of $20 on that market so I only made a profit of $500. Still, it was enough for an addition to my shoe collection.
Boothby is left out of the list of seats apparently up for grabs, so both sides consider it a probable Labor gain? If the swing against the Libs in South Australia is big, that puts Sturt somewhat in doubt too, surely?
My Grandfather was at Tobruk, it was a topic that was never spoken about and he never marched. On his death my father found all his medals still in the presentation cases and never mounted or worn.
My other grandfather didn’t go to war, he was a dairy farmer and took over the family farm so his brothers could go. One came back but died within a year, again never discussed but probably suicide, his other two brothers both died overseas. This side of the family never marched either and I was
surprised to find their names on a memorial when I had what I thought at the time was the privilege of laying a wreath.
I’m now married to an ex serviceman who as a returned soldier was denied entry to the RSL, and suffers from PTSD. He would never discuss the war, his service or his memories. Intense therapy for his mental health has however shed some light on how horrific the experience must have been. He has never marched although he got as far as getting his medals cleaned and mounted but has never managed to get to a service. Prior to his complete mental deterioration he would go and silently add a wreath at the local memorial after the crowds had left.
In the opinion of my husband which is now shared by his whole family it would be better to honour our service people with better support services than the confected political and media posturing we now get every year.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/25/swimming-australia-threatens-legal-action-over-billboards-claiming-womens-sport-is-not-for-men?CMP=share_btn_tw
The lnp could get sued… I hope they do
@Freya Stark
LNP are $10 for Blair on sportsbet. I haven’t even seen the LNP’s canidate barely make a squeak in the media. Unless I’m missing something it seems some of your predictions are way off.
—————————————————
If the ALP lose Blair, it will be to PHON – and that is a genuine chance if there is a further swing towards them. It was nearly a nightmare 2019 surprise.
26 to go.
Bluey continues to be amazed at the National Deves Freak Show.
Bluey reckons the actual facts don’t look too good. Allegations include: spreading fake news on Chinese messaging apps, allegedly having to return $300,000 of the ready because of national security concerns, her signage looked just like the AEC stuff. Then there were the membership of organisations linked to the Chinese Communist Party. Morrison is desperately trying to play the race card here…
Bluey notes that Morrison has red-lined a China military base in the Solomons. What is he going to do? Go to war with China? On what basis? Three days ago Morrison and Payne were saying that Solomon Island is a sovereign state. It seems to Bluey that if the Solomon Islands wants to host a Chinese military base it has the right to do so. Bluey reckons that Morrison is a national security idiot.
Bluey reckons that ANZAC day should have been a gimme for the Coalition but this year it is not.
No movement at the station today. Bluey notes sardonically that some people think that a well-hung parliament would be the ants pants. But Bluey reckons hung with what?
With this thought in mind, the cumulative score has been updated to reflect progress in the election by most registered political parties: Morrison 2, Albanese 3.5, Joyc .5, Greens 0, Indies 0, UAP 0, Centre Party 0, Animal Justice Party 0, the Australian Christians 0, Australian Progressives0, David Pocock 0, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 0, Katter Party 0, The Great Australian Party 0, Victorian Socialists 0, United Australia Party 0, Sustainable Australia Party 0, Socialist Alliance 0, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party 0, Seniors United Party of Australia 0, Rex Patrick Team 0, Reason Australia 0, Liberal Democratic Party 0, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0, Kim for Canberra 0, Jacqui Lambie Networdk 0, Informed Medical Options Party 0, Indigenous-Aboriginal Party of Australia 0, Federal ICAC Now 0, FUSION: Science, Pirate, Secular, Climate Emergency 0, Drew Pavlou Democratic Party 0 Country Liberal Party 0 and Australian Values Party 0.