Note the post below from Adrian Beaumont on today’s momentous French presidential run-off election. Closer to home:
• As the Liberal Party divides on Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”. Whereas some rate this as “electoral madness”, an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”. Those of the latter view point to Boris Johnson’s success in the “red wall” of northern England and the epochal populist-driven realignments in the United States and France.
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports front-benchers on both sides have identified the following seats as “still in play”: “Reid, Gilmore and Parramatta in NSW; Corangamite, McEwen and Chisholm in Victoria; Swan, Pearce and Hasluck in WA; Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane in Queensland; and the Tasmanian trio of Bass, Braddon and Lyons”. This includes five seats held by Labor along with ten by the Coalition. A Labor source says they would “prefer to be us than them at this stage”, not least because the teal independent insurgency had the Coalition “fighting on two fronts”, but that defeat remained possible.
• Further to the above, former Queensland Labor state secretary Cameron Milner writes in The Australian that the Liberals are pursuing Labor-held Lilley in Brisbane, Lingiari in the Northern Territory (where Scott Morrison campaigned yesterday) and Corangamite in western Victoria. Milner also describes Scott Morrison’s support for Katherine Deves as “brilliant foghorn politics”, deployed to “virtue-signal their values” to One Nation and Clive Palmer voters whose preferences will be up for grabs. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.
• A Labor online attack against Gladys Liu, who holds the Melbourne seat of Chisholm for the Liberals on a margin of 0.5%, has been described as a “desperate, dishonest, racist attack ad” by Josh Frydenberg and a “sewer tactic” by Scott Morrison. While these claims are receiving sympathetic coverage from the news media, the contentions raised in the ad do not seem especially misleading.
• Ben Raue of The Tally Room has interactive colour-coded maps recording the extent to which seats have swung towards one major party or the other since 2004. It can be observed that Labor has strengthened in the growth areas of Melbourne but weakened in central Queensland and Sydney’s inner west and south.
• Following the publication of full candidate details on Friday, I have finished fleshing out my federal election guide with further photos, candidate details and full lists of candidates in ballot paper order.
“whether a Coalition government could … take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”
Tell ‘em they’re dreamin’!
Well it appears that the in-play territory is now clearly Labor’s outer suburban and regional seats rather than Coalition held seats that Labor might have been hopeful in obtaining a couple of weeks ago. And I was right about how using Deves as a sacrificial pawn is a brilliant political masterstroke. The best the Labor party can probably hope for at this stage is a hung parliament, and that’s a very big if – their team doesn’t shoot itself in the foot even more times in the remainder of the campaign.
And the shy Tory effect – even if the last polls, and exit polls, have Labor leading 53-47, I would venture to say that they have no more than a 50 percent chance of forming government.
‘Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour …”’
Yep, it was all everyone was talking about down at the local shops over the weekend …
Freya Stark says:
“Well it appears that the in-play territory is now clearly Labor’s outer suburban and regional seats …”
Another glass of Kool-Aid, m’dear?
What a sobering thought that after this election Labor will likely hold only four seats out of thirty in Queensland: Griffith, Rankin, Moreton and Oxley. Blair and Lilley will be amongst the first to go, even if Labor record a net positive swing nationwide. The Deves candidacy has worked wonders for the LNP in Queensland.
Current 2022 Federal election prediction
——————————–
Coalition gain from Labor: Lilley, Blair, Macquarie, Gilmore
Labor gain from Coalition: Swan, Pearce, Boothby
IND gain from Coalition: North Sydney, Kooyong, Wentworth
Coalition gain from PUP: Hughes
Coalition gain from PHON: Dawson
Coalition minority government with 74-75 seats, agreement with Katter without involvement of Teals
Senate: Coalition to achieve working majority with PHON
Ah yes, the ‘Shy Tory’: that fabled creature glimpsed by the intrepid Freya on her world travels, along with Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster …
“… there is practically no bias against conservative parties in Australian polling. On average, the overall skew on both Coalition and One Nation vote shares has been minimal, at just -0.2% and +0.2% respectively, neither being statistically significant …”
https://armariuminterreta.com/2021/06/25/shy-tory-effect-in-aus-polling/
Own up now, Freya: when you were in Iraq last century, you gave birth to Comical Ali, didn’t you?
My god, if the Libs actually won specifically because they were awful to queer people, over all other issues they should be voting against, I would welcome this entire country sinking into the sea, getting destroyed by natural disasters, getting wracked by dire economic circumstances and/or getting wiped out by Pacific aggressors* if only those people who changed their votes based on that suffered marginally more than I did.
*All things I earnestly believe Labor would do their damnedest to prevent and the coalition seem to be doing everything they can to effect.
Freya,
Are you still in Arles?
Arles is not too far from us (in Australian terms),and it has been cold and rainy.
No, I’m now in Mallorca
Scott Morrison would be the person to go to for identification of a “sewer tactic” while displaying appropriate self-righteous indignation at such a tactic.
Some odd claims from a venomous, and usually far more astute Cameron Milner, in today’s Oz:
– Lilley under threat
– Deves train wreck “brilliant foghorn politics”
– Solomons stuff-up working in Morrison’s favour
No talk of the kitchen table/bread and butter economic issues he has campaigned on with some success over the years, which are likely to have the most influence on the election outcome.
Probably itching to be in the trenches this campaign, but with analysis like this I suspect Albo is better off without him…
https://mobile.twitter.com/mariewalsh18/status/1518293407235379200/photo/1
Congratulations to Macron
Transgender issues and racism are attracting a number of people to One Nation and Australia Party.Madness is in our consciousness.
Transgender issues and racism are attracting a number of people to One Nation and Australia Party.Madness is in our consciousness.
Goll says:
‘Scott Morrison would be the person to go to for identification of a “sewer tactic” while displaying appropriate self-righteous indignation at such a tactic.’
Hey, ScoMo never said ‘Shanghai Sam’, you know. Never ever!
He was self-righteously indignant in his denial, and that’s good enough to me.
The Deves selection is being called great foghorn politics. The media hold the foghorns.
Rocket Rocket @ #1476 Sunday, April 24th, 2022 – 10:47 pm
I haven’t heard any negative feedback, but it’s not something that comes up much.
If Labor wins on 21 May I can imagine Macron being the first international leader to personally phone Albo to congratulate him. 😀
I feel sorry for the person doing the Trivago adds
https://amp.abc.net.au/article/101008006
Freya you taking glee in such abhorrent tactics leaves me feeling sick to the stomach. No other way I can put it. If you’re right what kind of country will we become? One that you would embrace it seems. Will hasten my looking at an exit path.
Mr Albanese:
“acclamations Emmanuel mais je pense que vous êtes un leader assez floconneux et je ne suivre pas votre exemple.”
What would you do Scotty?
What a shame the Government has done everything in it’s power to allow this red line to be approached.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-24/scott-morrison-china-naval-base-solomon-islands-red-line/101011710
Tim Wilson’s chances in Goldstein just improved immeasurably. Daniel must be livid.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-need-urgent-action-on-climate-change-getup-sets-sights-on-goldstein-20220423-p5aflf.html
Campaigns muddy the waters rather than clarify.
The press is a key accomplice, sometimes witting and other times unwitting.
Oliver Suttonsays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 3:50 am
Yep, it was all everyone was talking about down at the local shops over the weekend …
_____________________
Polled them all did you ?
Macron won with about 58 per cent of the vote compared with Le Pen with 42 per cent.
https://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/election-2022–the-value-of-independents#
Jaqueline Outram
@JaquelineOutram
Unsurprising that Barnaby Joyce, who filed his $675,000 drought envoy report by txt message, thinks that Scott Morrison making one telephone call to the Solomon Islands is “an intense process”
Respect to our Returned Servicemen and Women.
Lest We Forget
#Democracy
Holdenhillbilly @ #28 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:01 am
As one French Mesdame said on her way in to vote: ‘I’m voting to keep Le Pen out and not to put Macron in.’
Note Scomo makes no denial of the claims in the Liu ad. Just saying.
Confessions says:
“If Labor wins on 21 May I can imagine Macron being the first international leader to personally phone Albo to congratulate him. ”
I don’t imagine: I know!
PARIS — Emmanuel Macron has become the first French president in two decades to win a second term, holding off a far-right challenge by Marine Le Pen that could have upended Europe.
Macron won 59 percent of the vote and Le Pen 41 percent in the projected results released by France’s public broadcaster.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/24/french-election-2022-results/
Balding middle aged White man. says:
“Note Scomo makes no denial of the claims in the Liu ad.”
Dastyari accepts $44,000 from Chinese sources: “Shanghai Sam! Shanghai Sam!”
Liu accepts $300,000 from Chinese sources: “Racist claims! Sewer tactics!”
Oliver Sutton @ #36 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:13 am
You left out, Andrew Robb accepts $800000/year job from the Chinese.
And, Anthony Albanese: ‘Manchurian candidate!’ 🙄
Balding middle aged White man. @ #33 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:05 am
That’s because the claims are accurate.
Love how the media just takes up the narrative Morrison and the Libs lay out for them, assuming suburban voters are falling for the Deves crap.
As though people in the suburbs are somehow idiots and will forget being locked down for three months last year because Scotty couldn’t order vaccines, or will ignore not getting a pay rise for 6 years because they’re worried a trans woman might play sport.
Get in the bin with this junk “analysis.” Seriously.
How sad that trans people are essentially being demonised by this PM so he can creep back into office. I always knew that Katherine Deves was the stalking horse who would not win Warringah but benefit Morrison in other places.
As for Cameron Milner, I recall Rudd’s caustic comments about him in one of his books.
Freya
‘And I was right about how using Deves as a sacrificial pawn is a brilliant political masterstroke. ‘
How do you know that you were right?
I’m sure reminding voters in Teal threatened seats that the Liberal party is awash with bigotry of one form or another is, indeed, a Cunning Plan, but I’d like to see your evidence of this.
Will the media today ask Morrison to comment on Macron’s victory?
Solomon island. International view of Morrison’s stuff up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jbT7cbV2jg
Evan @ #42 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 7:32 am
No. They are supine in front of Morrison.
I don’t know about Katherine Deves being a ‘sacrificial pawn’. More like a raw prawn. All soft and squidgy with a vein of shit running through her.
Evan @ #42 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 5:32 am
I welcome President Macron’s reelection and hope we can continue our strong personal relationship forged during his first term.
Trans people are 15 times more like to self harm, I hope the lnp and their cheerleaders are happy to use them for political gain.
It’s disgusting.
Hold yer nerve. It’s still Labor’s to loose.
Evan – Rudd may caustic comments about more than just Milner in his books.
Clearly Deves is a flake who’s out of her depth. The longer she remains a Liberal candidate the more she taints the party.
Oops, ABC Newsradio reports that NSW police have not received any report of death threats from Deves.