Note the post below from Adrian Beaumont on today’s momentous French presidential run-off election. Closer to home:
• As the Liberal Party divides on Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power”. Whereas some rate this as “electoral madness”, an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”. Those of the latter view point to Boris Johnson’s success in the “red wall” of northern England and the epochal populist-driven realignments in the United States and France.
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports front-benchers on both sides have identified the following seats as “still in play”: “Reid, Gilmore and Parramatta in NSW; Corangamite, McEwen and Chisholm in Victoria; Swan, Pearce and Hasluck in WA; Longman, Leichhardt and Brisbane in Queensland; and the Tasmanian trio of Bass, Braddon and Lyons”. This includes five seats held by Labor along with ten by the Coalition. A Labor source says they would “prefer to be us than them at this stage”, not least because the teal independent insurgency had the Coalition “fighting on two fronts”, but that defeat remained possible.
• Further to the above, former Queensland Labor state secretary Cameron Milner writes in The Australian that the Liberals are pursuing Labor-held Lilley in Brisbane, Lingiari in the Northern Territory (where Scott Morrison campaigned yesterday) and Corangamite in western Victoria. Milner also describes Scott Morrison’s support for Katherine Deves as “brilliant foghorn politics”, deployed to “virtue-signal their values” to One Nation and Clive Palmer voters whose preferences will be up for grabs. Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.
• A Labor online attack against Gladys Liu, who holds the Melbourne seat of Chisholm for the Liberals on a margin of 0.5%, has been described as a “desperate, dishonest, racist attack ad” by Josh Frydenberg and a “sewer tactic” by Scott Morrison. While these claims are receiving sympathetic coverage from the news media, the contentions raised in the ad do not seem especially misleading.
• Ben Raue of The Tally Room has interactive colour-coded maps recording the extent to which seats have swung towards one major party or the other since 2004. It can be observed that Labor has strengthened in the growth areas of Melbourne but weakened in central Queensland and Sydney’s inner west and south.
• Following the publication of full candidate details on Friday, I have finished fleshing out my federal election guide with further photos, candidate details and full lists of candidates in ballot paper order.
And the journalists keep asking Labor how they are going to pay for it?
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-has-promised-voters-833m-a-day-as-it-outspends-labor-in-campaign-mode-20220422-p5afd8.html
How are the Coalition going to pay for it!?!
The lnp has made 23 billion in unfunded policies… I never want to hear how will labor pay for their policies again.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-has-promised-voters-833m-a-day-as-it-outspends-labor-in-campaign-mode-20220422-p5afd8.html
Confessions
GetUp in 2019, campaigning in Dixon, probably sent votes to Dutton.
I find GetUp clumsy in their campaigning, tending to demand that candidates (and their other targets) immediately see that GetUp is right, and recant whatever position they may have had in favour of GetUp’s 200 word press release, which while referencing the SMH and the Guardian, provides no nuanced analysis of difficult policy decisions.
I used to give money to getUp, but stopped when they got behind Patrick McGorry in attacking Kevin Rudd, in 2009, because McGorry insisted he had the answer to solving youth mental health problems, and Rudd was the only reason his perfect solution was not being given enough funding.
I wondered why McGorry and GetUp would run such a vicious campaign against Rudd, who after all had given money to McGory’s causes, and was trying to support McGorry’s “Headspace” clinics as best he could.
Anyway, GetUp and McGorry went some way to destabilising the Rudd government, and I am not sure what they had in mind. Get rid of Labor and the Liberals will suddenly invest a lot in mental health?
Adolescent and Young Adult mental health is one of my special subjects. This is because around the time McGorry and GetUp were campaigning against Rudd, I was trying to get help for my youngest son, who has autism, and who developed bipolar / schizophrenia around the same time as the shenanigans above, circa 2009.
Anyway, McGorry got his headspace clinics, and I got an appointment for my son to visit one.
It was one of the most useless appointments we have ever had, and my son was in tears after it. As he said, he went asking for help, and was sent away with the advice that “there is no help, you really just need to pull your shit together and get better”.
The psychologist looked bored the whole time my son and I were in the Headspace appointment. The whole thing is a long story, but the psychologist said that my son should not be living with me, because of his temper outbursts, and son concurred. Then we asked about options for son living out of home. Psychologist told us we would never get a Department of housing unit for son – 10 year waiting list. He then suggested to my son that he try and find shared accomodation on Gumtree. Son pointed out that he did not have a job, and had no history of having been employed owing to a few years of acute and chronic psychosis.
The Headspace psychologist then said “Just make up your work history. What do you thing people who have been in jail do when they need to find accomodation after getting out?”
This was a new perspective to us. People getting out of jail had no help, and had to get accomodation by telling lies to prospective share housemates on Gumtree?
Or was he saying that my son’s mental illness was like being in jail? You stuffed up, had a psychotic episode or two (which were basically your fault), and now you need to just pull yourself together, stop being mentally ill, and go and get yourself accomodation by telling lies, and suddenly your mental health problems will disappear.
Son and I walked out of that Headspace clinic in despair. We had not been offered another appointment, and my son’s severe mental health problems had been ignored / brushed off.
There has been a lot of water under the bridge since then, and son is doing really well, having got an audio engineering degree, and now having secure and well-paid employment (sadly not in audio engineering).
But both son I remember that 1) He did it all without any help from anyone except me, OH, and a decent psychiatrist who prescribed some medication that works. 2) To the Headspace clinic, son was not going to be an easy fix, and so we were shown the door, and told not to come back.
Given McGorry uses statistics to show his Headspace model works, I, and son, felt that we were abandoned so that we did not become one of the “Headspace was not able to help in this case” stats.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Shane Wright and Katina Curtis tell us that the Coalition has promised $833 million a day to electorates around the country since the week of the March 29 federal budget as it goes on a spending spree to hold on to power at next month’s election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-has-promised-voters-833m-a-day-as-it-outspends-labor-in-campaign-mode-20220422-p5afd8.html
Following Morrison’s “ironclad guarantee” that there would be no tax increases or spending decreases, Ronald Mizen points out that of 34 developed nations tracked by the IMF, Australia will have the eighth-largest structural deficit next financial year at 3.6 per cent of GDP. A structural deficit is measured by stripping out one-off spending measures.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/scott-morrison-rejects-higher-taxes-and-cuts-to-spending-20220424-p5afq1
Sean Kelly looks at the nature of political ads during this campaign and the reasons for them.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fearing-the-worst-campaign-ads-point-to-mood-shift-in-the-lucky-country-20220423-p5aflx.html
In what was a bit of a train wreck interview on Insiders yesterday, Barnaby Joyce said a “transition” from coal to cleaner energy “equals unemployment” in the regions, declaring the Coalition would not use the term during the election.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/24/barnaby-joyce-refuses-to-use-term-energy-transition-because-it-equals-unemployment
Scott Morrison drawing a red line against a Chinese military base in the South Pacific serves one genuinely useful purpose – it helps to alert the Australian people to the absolute seriousness for them of what’s going on between China and Solomon Islands. However, the Prime Minister’s red line carries the enormous risk of being mocked into derision because of the obvious hollowness of the implied threat, writes Greg Sheridan.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/memo-to-scott-morrison-this-bluster-will-leave-us-with-egg-on-our-face/news-story/861f92c66c835f498f7681bc998a158b
A scathing Michael Pascoe is concerned that Australia’s spooks are going dangerously rogue – or lie. Or both.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/04/25/michael-pascoe-australia-spooks-rogue/
An Australian War Memorial sponsored by weapons dealers is no place for quiet reflection on Anzac Day, complains Paul Daley.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2022/apr/25/an-australian-war-memorial-sponsored-by-weapons-dealers-is-no-place-for-quiet-reflection-on-anzac-day
The Australian government has missed a deadline to decide on compensation for victims of alleged war crimes in Afghanistan, potentially leaving the thorny issue to be sorted out after the election. Defence blamed the delay on “legal, practical and logistical issues”, while Labor accused the Coalition of breaking a promise to keep parliament informed of progress on reforms sparked by the “damning” Brereton inquiry.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/24/australian-government-misses-compensation-deadline-for-victims-of-alleged-war-crimes
Michelle Grattan examines the usefulness, or otherwise, of the Liberal party rolling out John Howard for the campaign.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/04/25/view-from-the-hill-teals-liberals/
Josh Dye continues the Katherine Deves saga who now says her family has left Sydney due to death threats received following her comments about transgender people.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/katherine-deves-breaks-silence-pledges-nuanced-debate-20220424-p5afqy.html
After Scott Morrison’s endorsement of Katherine Deves, it seems the PM is calculating on a new political future for the Liberal Party, opines Chip Le Grand.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/deves-endorsement-shows-pm-is-willing-to-risk-progressive-seats-20220422-p5afb1.html
The Australian’s Chris Mitchell reckons Deves is saying what a lot are thinking about transgender athletes. He neglects to say anything about the many other subjects she has raised in a nasty fashion.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/katherine-deves-is-saying-what-a-lot-are-thinking-about-transgender-athletes/news-story/2c8420ff7fc2cc2146c8a412cab91cc9
Making too many jobs insecure and homes too hard for too many young people to afford is not just about the high social price we’ll pay – we’ll damage the Australian way of life, laments Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/if-you-care-about-australia-s-future-care-about-declining-home-ownership-20220424-p5afoc.html
Furious officials have threatened legal action against a conservative activist group after the images of Emma McKeon, Emily Seebohm and swimming legend Dawn Fraser were used.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/swimming-australia-fuming-after-athlete-images-hijacked-for-anti-trans-campaign-20220424-p5afra.html
As an endocrinologist who treats trans people and a clinician scientist, endocrinologist Ana Cheung is passionate about research to improve health to guide policy and enable evidence-based decisions. She writes that sometimes, as in the case of transgender health, which has long been stigmatised, there is not a lot of evidence, but plenty of assumptions.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/let-evidence-not-fear-drive-policies-on-trans-athletes-20220423-p5afm1.html
Warnings of dramatically escalating extinctions in Australia over the next two decades seem to be falling on deaf ears, writes Lisa Cox.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/25/worst-its-ever-been-a-threatened-species-alarm-sounds-during-the-election-campaign-and-is-ignored
Ratings agency Moody’s is concerned that the Victoria’s big debts and deficits leave the government with few fiscal resources to react to fresh health or economic shocks.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/downgrade-pressure-pallas-warned-on-state-s-spiralling-debt-20220421-p5af02.html
Hundreds of thousands of Australians are estimated to quit their jobs this year for more meaningful work or a better life balance, creating a talent loss for some employers and opening up opportunities for others, writes Lisa Annese who explains how flexibility a powerful tool for employers facing office return reluctance.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/flexibility-a-powerful-tool-for-employers-facing-office-return-reluctance-20220419-p5aee3.html
For six years, the state insurer knowingly underpaid NSW workers who had deadly dust diseases and faces a total claims liability of more than $93 million. Icare has been a monumental stuff-up
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/icare-forced-to-repay-almost-40-million-to-workers-or-their-estates-20220424-p5afpe.html
Marine Le Pen, defeated for a third time, is now a spent force, declares Rob Harris.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/as-world-breathes-sigh-of-relief-macron-s-hard-work-starts-now-20220425-p5afs3.html
Emmanuel Macron is reelected but the French are longing for radical change, explains history academic Romain Fathi.
https://theconversation.com/emmanuel-macron-is-reelected-but-the-french-are-longing-for-radical-change-181488
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Jim Pavlidis
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
The Liberals are the political arm of corporate Australia. They need bigots to make up the numbers.
Demonising trans people to win an election would be yet another new low for Australian politics.
And on Insiders this weekend, Chris Kenny and Phil Coorey join David Speers in Parramatta, where an under-siege Labor captain’s pick is considered likely to fall short on May 21 amid a growing voter backlash in Western Sydney, fuelled by white hot anger at trans female athletes
At the very least their efforts give the Liberals a handy line of attack by tagging Labor with them.
Perhaps their departure from Dickson means Labor now has a decent shot at unseating Dutton.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-20/federal-election-liberal-labor-nationals-greens-policy-positions/100482298
”
WB: Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review likewise offers that “in the suburbs, the regions and the religious communities, the government – and Labor – believes the Deves issue is going gangbusters in Scott Morrison’s favour, messy as it may be”.
”
GANGBUSTERS yeah?
We will see?
This is a very provocative thread. Saying the quite part loud.
Douglas and Milko:
“GetUp in 2019, campaigning in Dixon, probably sent votes to Dutton.”
2019: 2PP Swings:
Dickson: 2.95% to LNP
Petrie: 6.75% to LNP
Longman: 4.07% to LNP
Dutton underperformed relative to adjoining seats on Brisbane’s northern edge.
Maybe GetUp took a point or two off him.
You know its in the bag when LNP supporters are trying so hard to imagine stories about how they might win rather than articulate reality.
EDIT: any winning theory they have needs to address the gender vote mismatch (low female vote)
People taking strategically leaked gossip during campaigns seriously? Everyone lies – everyone wants to be seen in a tight contest.
Come on – we’ve all done this before. If your political master stroke is working … you don’t announce it – you just let it work.
Sheridan reckons there is a “risk of being mocked” . Ya reckon ?
When the lib/nat propagandist like Phil Cooley claims lib/nats are gaining support it is likely the opposite
Douglas and Milko,
Agree with you about Patrick McGorry. He’s a cynical opportunist. Allowing himself and the issue of Mental Health to be used as a cudgel to beat Kevin Rudd with was abhorrent. And yes, it did contribute to Rudd’s decline in popularity with the electorate. Like so many doctors that have been bought by the Coalition, he seems to have taken the Hypocritic Oath rather than the Hippocratic Oath.
I also agree with you about Headspace. Utterly useless. I took my eldest son there after I had endured one too many 4 hour debates with him about inconsequential matters of very little importance in the scheme of things but which he declared were hills to die on. All they said to him was, write a journal. That was their solution. Which he did do. However, he got more help and direction from a small business course that he got sent to by Centrelink soon after, which allowed him to follow a singular path with the intense focus on minutiae that he had for things, in his case Astrology. He, too, is happy now. No thanks to Headspace or Patrick McGorry.
Demonising trans people to win an election would be yet another new low for Australian politics
—————
John Howard, who the LNP and the media love to fete as a respected elder statesman, as opposed to a war criminal, behaved no less despicably with the children overboard.
Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 8:05 am
Douglas and Milko:
“GetUp in 2019, campaigning in Dixon, probably sent votes to Dutton.”
2019: 2PP Swings:
Dickson: 2.95% to LNP
Petrie: 6.75% to LNP
Longman: 4.07% to LNP
Dutton underperformed relative to adjoining seats on Brisbane’s northern edge.
Maybe GetUp took a point or two off him.
———-
Thanks OS, you gotta love evidence!
The trans debate is just them trying to control the agenda, its not going to suddenly become more influential on peoples voting intentions than, finance/economics, climate change, or ICAC
If a distraction is the best they going for them 4 weeks out, they dont have much going for them.
On this day lest we forget, the National War Memorial is having a $500m extension to house exhibitions commentating Australian war crimes perpetrated in Timor, Iraq & Afghanistan
Remember those huge queues of people trying to get into Sydney airport before Easter? The crush of jostling people met with understaffed counters, security lines and baggage handlers. Staff shortages due to the casualisation of the workforce.
My triple vaxxed sister in law was one of those people in the super spreading queue, perfectly healthy when she left home – after arriving in Brisbane developed Coronavirus. After an awful week with symptoms classified as mild, she is out of iso and heading back home. Holiday completely ruined.
Living with the virus in Australia in 2022.
Cameron Milner, does he still belong to the ALP? I think his column today and his recent contributions to the Australian would indicate he left Labor a long time ago.
Phil Coorey, true to form, as ever a cheerleader for this government, then again as Phil recently said, he’s got a family to feed, so I guess greasing up to Morrison’s office pays those bills.
@bug1 – agreed.
Ms Deves is a nutter..a political candidate who hides away…wow.. heard she will be liberal candidate in Cook soon. The dog whistle will not work.. will lose teal seats up to 5 but not gain anything extra.. Working class people will not vote for those who make their working life worse and are corrupt to boot
Exclusive: France and Germany evaded arms embargo to sell weapons to Russia
Paris and Berlin sent Moscow £230m of military hardware, including bombs, rockets and missiles, that is likely being used in Ukraine
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/22/exclusive-france-germany-evaded-arms-embargo-sell-weapons-russia/
”
WB: Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald :-an unidentified conservative is quoted as saying Kooyong is “just a seat” and “certainly not the jewel in the crown anymore”.
”
Un-f$#&@*g-believable.
Ven, r u ok?
It’s all a bit Battle of the Bulge currently.
In a desperate move, Morrison has concocted a brilliant plan to spend his last resources sending an army of transphobes out to break apart the ‘fragile’ outer suburban voters from the ALP.
I expect lots of sound and fury, but in the end an abject failure as the goal is so ludicrous, it was doomed before it began. Even though some in the ALP would be panicked.
The final result is that the LNP is bled dry and the Teals from the Eastern front pick up the spoils and finish Morrison off.
“WB: As the Liberal Party divides on
Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and her contentious pronouncements on transgenderism, Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power
”
Thanks for vote of confidence in the character of Ethnics. Not.
Yes Max, and then the intervention in 07.
Robert Lee at 8:26 am
And the bulge is winning.
Mick Quinlivan Working class people will not vote for those who make their working life worse and are corrupt to boot
Worked pretty well in 2019 why wouldn’t it happen again.
poroti
That really is gross!
Contest: name the liberal seats to be lost to teals
Lol poroti
Mick, none of them.
Chip Le Grand of the Age/Herald observes a related debate as to “whether a Coalition government could be turfed out of its inner-city electorates in Sydney and Melbourne but take enough ground in the suburbs and regions to stay in power
______________
Frydo would be real happy with that plan.
”
It’s Timesays:
Monday, April 25, 2022 at 7:47 am
Oops, ABC Newsradio reports that NSW police have not received any report of death threats from Deves.
”
Who is lying? Deves or NSW Police?
Can we assume that Freya would say NSW Police is lying?
Poroti
That gross photo of ScoMo was taken in Fiji, and is emblematic of his Pacific Island diplomacy.
And now we have the ‘Red Line’ boast over China’s security deal with the Solomons. What is Morrison going to do? Send a gunboat up to ‘sort them out’?
Ven @ #75 Monday, April 25th, 2022 – 8:23 am
Homer Eugene Le Grand
He worked for 25 years for the national newspaper, The Australian.
When he joined The Age in 2019 things kind of started to go downhill in a ‘The Australian’ way.
Jesus christ poroti! WTF so early in the day!!
Good response to the resident #crumbmaiden at 9SMH….
“ Parnell Palme McGuinness wins the Everything Everywhere All At Once Wrong gong (‘‘ Shutting down discussion encourages the zealots’’ , April 23). And she does it from her first line.
It may take a brave person to publicly express a controversial opinion, but in the case of Coalition candidate Katherine Deves, it takes an arrogant and insensitive jerk to hurl cruel insults at a vulnerable minority.
You are brave only if you speak against power. When you speak down from the position of power to the powerless, you are cowardly and contemptible and you encourage the worst aspects of society to follow.
Phil Bradshaw, Naremburn
gotta love the pee stain pants
With the PMO leaking to their ciphers like Coorey and Le Grand that they are sacrificing Kooyong and the other teal challenged seats, expect some of the internal Liberal meltdown to spill into the public in 3, 2, 1….
Another quiz.. possible upset seats..I start with Grey and Hinkler both to independents
BeaglieBoy
The photo would make for a great election poster!
Should be an interesting polling week – will give us some idea if any of these theories/ strategies amount to anything.
Wouldn’t be surprised if when all is said and done less than 10 seats change hands this election.
That photo of Morrison would make a great Labor ad.
Mick Q – Fowler has to be on an upset list.
Sprocket is there such a beast as a Liberal moderate?