Market research:
• My first of what will be regular contributions to Crikey each Wednesday through the campaign makes the case for taking opinion polling seriously again, though you may think that I would say that.
• Today’s Financial Review reports focus groups of undecided voters in Sydney and Melbourne found Scott Morrison to be “smirking, unkempt, immature and dishonest”, to which women added “annoying and patronising”. However, he was also considered a hard worker and “good orator”, and marked up for his response to the Ukraine war. Anthony Albanese was “dull, uninspiring and too negative”, and his failure to have made a clear impression meant Labor had failed to fully shake off perceptions it planned to abolish franking credits and introduce a death tax. The focus groups were conducted for the paper by Ipsos on Tuesday – there is no indication that Albanese’s stumbles over unemployment and the cash rate the previous day were raised.
• Miranda Ward of the Financial Review reports Nielsen Ad Intel data shows the United Australia Party has spent $3.49 million in media advertising this month, compared with $472,247 by Labor, $103,265 by Liberal and $42,991 by the Greens.
Candidate news:
• George Christensen’s plan to run for One Nation proved to be a damp squib for everyone but his accountant, the big idea being to run for the inconsequential third position on the party’s Senate ticket. This will entitle him to six months’ worth of their salary, or over $100,000, as part of a “resettlement allowance” paid to defeated but not retiring incumbents. According to Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review, Christensen’s claim that he would have been entitled to it anyway on the grounds that he was effectively knocked back for Liberal National Party preselection does not square with the rules set out by the Remuneration Tribunal.
• Fairfield deputy mayor Dai Le will run as an independent in Fowler, seeking to capitalise on discontent over Labor’s preselection of Kristina Keneally over a member of the seat’s substantial Vietnamese community. Le came within 2.1% of gaining the state seat of Cabramatta for the Liberals in the party’s 2011 landslide and polled 25.9% as an independent there in 2019. Her campaign is backed by Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone, who had earlier floated the possibility of running himself.
On the ground:
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports Scott Morrison will be in northern Tasmania today dispensing $219.5 million from a forestry industry fund, with a view to shoring up the Liberal-held marginals of Bass and Braddon and perhaps snaring Labor-held Lyons.
• Barnaby Joyce was in the Northern Territory on Tuesday to target its two Labor-held seats, promoting the budget’s $1.5 billion of spending on new port facilities in Darwin and promising to spend $440 million on logistics hubs elsewhere in the territory, respectively of interest to Solomon and Lingiari. According to David Crowe of the Age/Herald, this points to Coalition hopes it can “gain ground in the regions despite poor polling in the cities”.
• Katherine Deves, who is running for the Liberals against independent Zali Steggall in Warringah, was found to have deleted social media posts relating to trans rights issues, one of which referred to “vulnerable children surgically mutilated and sterilised in furtherance of an unattainable ideal”. This was evidently thought to have exceeded her brief as a campaigner for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, but even here Scott Morrison now appears less keen than he did when he rated it a point in her favour after rubber-stamping her preselection last week.
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 14, 2022 at 8:36 am
Briefly – what happened to the 2:1 Not a Lib Plurality? Was it false consciousness?
Transfer of resentment from one entity to another? Dunno. I think the plurality is still there….certainly in WA it’s palpable. The Lying Reactionaries are lying again. Lies might prevail again. Truth is not cherished. It is only an alternate to escapism.
Wait, is taylor a Greens groupie?
Is the media pushing hard on the enrolment deadline? You’d think every journalist and media outlet worth their salt would be freely advertising the virtues of democracy and getting everyone enrolled and voting.
I have seen a TikTok from The Age. Is Ch7 and Ch9 and Murdoch trying to convince every 18yo and every parent of every 18yo to get to the AEC and enrol?
Briefly , red pill or blue pill?
Lars Von Trier says:
Thursday, April 14, 2022 at 8:45 am
Briefly , red pill or blue pill?
There are many pills. The biggest pill is currently the PM.
BK @ #39 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 7:23 am
Of course they could. But they won’t. They can’t do so without losing the financial support of the fossil fuel cartels. Not to mention all those lucrative post-parliamentary sinecures.
I will give them the credit of believing they are not complete sociopaths, and would act if they could claim they were being forced into it. But Labor are playing a game of Chicken with the COALition because neither side wants to be the one to cop the financial consequences of acting first.
Supporting pro-action minor parties and independents is our best chance of breaking this deadly deadlock.
Every time Albanese gets a ridiculous question at a presser he should respond with something like, “You reckon you’re a journalist, so why don’t you take the time to examine and contrast the policies on XXX of both sides and write an article instead of indulging in this sort of lightweight rubbish?”
Change is the hardest thing there is…until you’ve changed. Then you wonder why it took so long….why you waited and waited and pushed it away all the while. Change has to be fought for and then defended.
Cronus 8.07
“It would just be a case of onward and downward like the UK and US.”
Yes agreed.
I think it would be more like the USA than UK under Morrison. He seems to copy many Republican tactics and shares their loopy ideology via his Pentecostal church.
Okay folks…put down the glasses….the election results are in…..
The West newspaper, its owner, editor and its political writers have given it to Morrison…….
Sorry Mr Green but you will not be needed on election night……..
From the particularly feral headlines in the last three days, the 3 to nil lead in “Who has won each day” to Morrison and most importantly, air head Gemma Tognini putting her two cents worth in telling us that Albanese has failed his “job interview”, the West has let rip…..
And of course, to back this up here on PB, we have good old LVT giving of his dire predictions today…..
So, those looking for seats in WA to add to Labor’s tally should forget it………….It will be status quo – 10 for the LNP and 5 for Labor.
It seems opinion polls, which for nearly a year, have shown a healthy lead to Labor, could evaporate in just 3 days – or at least enough, so say, to claim “this is going to be a close election”.
What is the point of opinion polls for all but the last 40 days of an election cycle if it is only what happens in the last 40 days that really count?
Oh for some polling !
How long to go ?
“they’re a weird mob”
Who is the they ?
And why ?
Albanese and Labor will form government on May 21 onwards simply because as a country we cannot afford to go the path of Morrison and CO any longer.
The Morrison LNP government steal from the blind , the poor, the homeless, the refugees, women, the gays, the unemployed and the original Australians.
The Morrison LNP government lie unashamedly while filling their pockets.
The federal finances are a shambles.
The unemployed numbers are doctored.
The regional relationships are broken.
Women are treated like chattel.
Half the cabinet are eligible for gaol time.
The environment is desecrated.
Parliament never sits.
The PM Morrison is a squatter.
Morrison allows hush money payments.
Millions of dollars of public money has been stolen for political propaganda.
They discriminate at every opportunity.
Every politician will loudly and proudly tell all that voters aren’t stupid!
Now the voters need to show that to be correct.
The Morrison government is a used “petrol” car with four flat tyres with no spares and dodgy steering.
The Morrison LNP government is trying to sell that car on May 21.
Hello!
Simon Katich @ #103 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:43 am
The Project last night had a short ad about enrolling using Waleed Ali
Escapism is a form of denial…of flight from threat. Escapism…reminds of Charlie Chaplin movies, where somehow a door to another set, another world, would always appear at the last for the little champ….escapism….fantasy….childlike in its way.
Dire Predictions Tricot? I think I’ve been pretty clear that I think it will be a narrow Labor win, ie high 70’s in seat numbers.
Anything can happen in a campaign but Labor is still 6 points in front with 5 weeks to go, with double digit polling swings in WA+QLD. Albeit Albo is not projecting as a winner in how he is campaigning.
Goll @ #108 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:51 am
”
Meanwhile, we see Katherine Deves, has described Wear it Purple Day – a day billed as celebrating diversity – as a “grooming tactic” promoting “extreme body modification” on a now-deleted website. The NSW Liberal party has gone to ground on the issue.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/14/nsw-liberal-candidate-described-campaign-supporting-lgbt-youth-as-grooming-tactic-used-by-gender-extremists
”
Why can’t ALP can’t go to ground like LNP on issues that are a negative for them?
It has to be said, the media and Coalition and even certain posters on pollbludger have definitely been blowing about force 10 for the past 3 days. Will they escalate to force 12? Can they even maintain at 10 for the entire campaign?
And will it work? Have voters made their choice?
Lars Von Trier @ #111 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:54 am
‘Anything can happen in a campaign’
Many of us had high hopes for Labor’s campaign.
We must stay strong.
The Liberal party candidate in Warringah, Katherine Deves, described Wear it Purple Day – a day billed as celebrating diversity – as a “grooming tactic” promoting “extreme body modification” on a now-deleted website.
On the now-deleted website, seen by Guardian Australia, she also suggested a young boy could ask to “remove his penis” after attending a respectful relationships workshop at school.
These comments follow news on Wednesday that Deves had also deleted social media accounts on which she described trans children as “surgically mutilated and sterilised”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/14/nsw-liberal-candidate-described-campaign-supporting-lgbt-youth-as-grooming-tactic-used-by-gender-extremists
mundo and Lars trying to outdo each other in the Concern Troll Handicap
Griff @ #114 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:56 am
By the end of this week, yes.
When does postal voting start?
Can you help an old fella out? Does anyone know of a single question in a single press conference where Scott Morrison has been asked to quote a statistic in the past three years as PM?
End of week 1
Things are not going good for the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units by the way they are continuing with the personal smear attack
Does not look like the Lib/nats are gaining any Labor seats, on top of the 75 seats the caretaker Lib/nats minority government currently hold. and are not stopping the likely loses for the lib/nats
Dont make me like Ali. He infuriates me so much I just cant stop listening to him on the Philosophers Zone.
sprocket_ @ #117 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:59 am
At least I’m concerned.
I would have thought those who care to use the betting odds as a predictor of outcomes of elections are on the wrong train….Sure, great to make a dollar but about as useful as tealeaves for the same purpose….
The fact that the betting did not come near to predicting the 2019 election result speaks for itself
So far, the ALP has made a couple of modest aged care and health promises. At the same time, the coalition has doled out the promises in large dollops (e.g., nearly $2Bn for Northern Territory infrastructure).
So far, the ALP has been rounded on by the MSM and the AMA over their modest offers. At the same time, there has been no discernible criticism of the coalition’s quite over-the-top promises.
As far the criticisms of the ALP’s promises go, I particularly liked the expressed fear that setting up emergency GP clinics could damage the relationship that exists between an individual and their family doctor. I didn’t know that such things as family doctors still existed. My visits to the doctor’s usually result in an audience with a young doctor that I’ve never met before.
The smarter view from Tasmania…
Karl Stefanovic tries to get Jacqui Lambie to agree with him that Albo’s gaffe was “a disaster”
Jl: “All the stuff going on in the last three years is much bigger than Albo not knowing a couple of numbers”
Personally I am in fact unconcerned.
UK Cartoons:
So, in the last little while Taylormade (I think, really couldn’t give enough of a sh1t to check) trots out an article from August 2019, about a discussion that allegedly took place during Shorten’s leadership, to allege Labor will not implement a federal ICAC unless forced into it.
1) Bullsh1t
2) The Right must be nervous – about the election, the campaign and the prospect of a real anti-corruption body
3) Bullsh1t (again)
mundo (AnonBlock)
Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:28 am
said mundo giggling as he mulled up and changed his bong water earlier today.
Anyone ever asked Morrison what is the Australian debt figure….?
Bet he wouldn’t have a clue and/or would never let it pass his lips.
Meanwhile Murdoch Herald Sun has this enlightening article
Election 2022: Scott Morrison wants to ‘eat Anthony Albanese alive’ according to body language expert
The two leaders striving to be PM can’t hide their true feelings, according to a body language expert. Here’s how to know when they’re confident – and when they’re terrified.
+1 Bill
Police in the western state of Rhineland-Palatinate say they have broken up a right-wing extremist chat group that was seeking to bring down Germany’s democracy.
The State Criminal Police Office (LKA) in Mainz said Wednesday that individuals from a group calling itself the “Vereinte Patrioten” (United Patriots) planned bomb attacks on Germany’s energy infrastructure in hopes of creating lasting nationwide power outages that would spark a “civil war-like” situation.
The group figured that such an attack would then enable the toppling of Germany’s elected government and ultimately its democratic system.
The LKA said nationwide raids were carried out against the group for its bombing plans and other violent activities.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-police-bust-right-wing-group-planning-attack-on-energy-grid/a-61468227
torchbearer @ #129 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 9:05 am
‘Anyone ever asked Morrison what is the Australia debt figure….?’
At Albo’s next PC he should ask the gallary, ‘any of you asked Scott what the current Australian debt figure is?’
Do it such a way as to ensure wide media coverage.
Labor’s candidate for the Hunter is a very big unit.
Gee whiz mundo,
If your prior posts were being expressive of your ‘high hopes’, then I would scared to see your posts when you get worried 🙂
As for Lars/Edwina, there is nothing to say that hasn’t already been said about this persona.
”
For the first time the world is in a position to limit global heating to under 2C, according to the first in-depth analysis of the net zero pledges made by nations at the UN Cop26 climate summit last December.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/13/historic-global-climate-plans-can-now-keep-heating-below-2c-study-shows
”
Not going to happen because according to a study by a group of Climate scientists the world is on track to reach 1.5°C by 2030 and we may have already reached around 1°C.
Also, we will reach that target because most people are not ready to sacrifice to achieve 2°C.
So to expect to reach 2°C is a pipedream, a fantasy, an achievable goal.
Lars ….I am not predicting anything other than trying to project what I perceive is the world according to the West newspaper…..
We seem to be living in a dual universe…..
Today, for instance, having blown the Albanese question response out of all proportion to its real significance a day of so ago, it now shows Albo, after he decided too much talk/explaining was not such a good idea – a la Morrison – kind of in run away mode “after only 480 seconds”….As somebody pointed out a day or two ago – damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t….Of course, the fact that Morrison cut short, in a rude way, his interview yesterday was totally missing from the West….Even the editorial, which touched upon the Morrison piss-up with the press has been massaged down to “a private event” which allowed the editor to tut-tut about Mr Morrison and Mr Albanese having to put up with these rude interlopers…
Actually the next Labor talking head on telly should ask ‘has anyone asked Morrison what the current Australian debt figure is?
Then, ‘I’ll give him a heads-up, it’s much much bigger than it was under Labor.
”
longer will the Johnson mantra plague British politics?”, asks Martin Kettle.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/13/boris-johnson-partygate-tory-party
”
As long as he can do it and as long as people will allow him to do it by voting for Tories. Simples.
Good morning all. Thanks BK for the work you do for us every day keeping us updated on the MSM stories.
Schomochio is down here in Northern Tasmania today flogging a dead horse – how good is Tasmania- yada yada. I WILL be surprised if he has Archer doing the noddy thang standing behind him at the presser. Jacqui Lambie would be a hoot to have standing in the background just staring at him.
I will be volunteering for the campaign so I can’t go hunt him down myself and give him some shtick from the bleaches.
Anyone noticed he hasn’t done a street walk yet in this campaign- carefully controlling the environment in which he appears and who he speaks to. He did that in Lismore after the floods.. no street walks, no exposure to the punters in general. That old fella at the Newcastle pub must have put an end to him risking exposing himself to public ridicule.
Meanwhile, the Labor people going into panic mode and wetting the bed four days into the campaign proper and/or giving advise about what Albo could/should/ would be smarter to do/ even here on PB, are giving me the shit’s big time.
If you want change, get out there and fight for it. Don’t give up in the first quarter – fight. Rant ends.
Off now.
See y’all around lunchtime.
Albo looks like Tom Cruise next to the big fella.
Has our brave and intrepid CPG pack piled onto Morrison’s own ‘gaff gate’ (the latest in a 3 year rolling omnishambles of mismanagement) – missing ‘by that much’ the size of the Australian Economy, when tearing into Albo on Tuesday? By my reckoning ScoMo missed by about 18 or 19 trillion dollars. A fair bit larger than Albo’s own gaff …
In election campaigns, where the leaders are campaigning is often indicative of the true state of the race or their own internal polling.
Morrison targeting marginal Labor seats in Western Sydney and the NSW South Coast and Melbourne and in the Liberal marginal seat of Lindsay, both leaders in Northern Tasmania(Bass), Albanese yesterday in Melbourne, today in the Labor seat of Hunter.
Draw your own conclusions from that, but my take is Scomo thinks he can poach Parramatta and Gilmore and Corangamite off Labor, both camps know Bass and Braddon are marginal, Team Albanese is worried about Hunter and Patterson.
Anyway, in the preceding 24 hours in NSW, 21 people died of COVID.
And the highest profile story in the SMH online is the chaos at Sydney Airport.
Sigh.
@Sandman – amen.
People need to get a good old grip of it – they might even enjoy it.