Market research:
• My first of what will be regular contributions to Crikey each Wednesday through the campaign makes the case for taking opinion polling seriously again, though you may think that I would say that.
• Today’s Financial Review reports focus groups of undecided voters in Sydney and Melbourne found Scott Morrison to be “smirking, unkempt, immature and dishonest”, to which women added “annoying and patronising”. However, he was also considered a hard worker and “good orator”, and marked up for his response to the Ukraine war. Anthony Albanese was “dull, uninspiring and too negative”, and his failure to have made a clear impression meant Labor had failed to fully shake off perceptions it planned to abolish franking credits and introduce a death tax. The focus groups were conducted for the paper by Ipsos on Tuesday – there is no indication that Albanese’s stumbles over unemployment and the cash rate the previous day were raised.
• Miranda Ward of the Financial Review reports Nielsen Ad Intel data shows the United Australia Party has spent $3.49 million in media advertising this month, compared with $472,247 by Labor, $103,265 by Liberal and $42,991 by the Greens.
Candidate news:
• George Christensen’s plan to run for One Nation proved to be a damp squib for everyone but his accountant, the big idea being to run for the inconsequential third position on the party’s Senate ticket. This will entitle him to six months’ worth of their salary, or over $100,000, as part of a “resettlement allowance” paid to defeated but not retiring incumbents. According to Andrew Tillett of the Financial Review, Christensen’s claim that he would have been entitled to it anyway on the grounds that he was effectively knocked back for Liberal National Party preselection does not square with the rules set out by the Remuneration Tribunal.
• Fairfield deputy mayor Dai Le will run as an independent in Fowler, seeking to capitalise on discontent over Labor’s preselection of Kristina Keneally over a member of the seat’s substantial Vietnamese community. Le came within 2.1% of gaining the state seat of Cabramatta for the Liberals in the party’s 2011 landslide and polled 25.9% as an independent there in 2019. Her campaign is backed by Fairfield mayor Frank Carbone, who had earlier floated the possibility of running himself.
On the ground:
• David Crowe of the Age/Herald reports Scott Morrison will be in northern Tasmania today dispensing $219.5 million from a forestry industry fund, with a view to shoring up the Liberal-held marginals of Bass and Braddon and perhaps snaring Labor-held Lyons.
• Barnaby Joyce was in the Northern Territory on Tuesday to target its two Labor-held seats, promoting the budget’s $1.5 billion of spending on new port facilities in Darwin and promising to spend $440 million on logistics hubs elsewhere in the territory, respectively of interest to Solomon and Lingiari. According to David Crowe of the Age/Herald, this points to Coalition hopes it can “gain ground in the regions despite poor polling in the cities”.
• Katherine Deves, who is running for the Liberals against independent Zali Steggall in Warringah, was found to have deleted social media posts relating to trans rights issues, one of which referred to “vulnerable children surgically mutilated and sterilised in furtherance of an unattainable ideal”. This was evidently thought to have exceeded her brief as a campaigner for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, but even here Scott Morrison now appears less keen than he did when he rated it a point in her favour after rubber-stamping her preselection last week.
surely it’s not news to anyone that Hawke didn’t have a good relationship with the Left as PM. He froze them out and ruled with the Right and Center Left factions. It’s not surprising that Albo had problems with Hawke.
Although, ironically, when Keating came for Hawke it was the Left that stood by him at the end. They thought Keating was even more to the Right. Another irony being that Keating offered a far more progressive agenda when he did get in than Hawke ever did.
‘So at what stage would they ever vote for the ALP based on the economic situation?’
That’s easy.
When a charismatic, likable, articulate Labor leader convinces them they have nothing to fear.
In other words, not now.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Bandt had a good point about the economics gotcha questions yesterday. Albo should handle them the same way, and talk about the principles he believes in, which are his strong points. Don’t try to play the enemies game.
Speaking of which, if there is one thing we can be sure of if Morrison is re-elected, it is that the graft will continue.
He has given up pretending there will be a Federal ICAC.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/14/morning-mail-morrison-abandons-anti-corruption-pledge-765-civilian-bodies-found-in-kyiv-rethinking-work-culture
And the donors love that already. It will be three more years of the same from Barnaby, Angus, Stuart and all the rest. Dog help any female staffers in a re-elected LNP government.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/14/companies-linked-to-urannah-dam-project-donate-more-than-150000-to-liberal-national-party
‘south says:
Wednesday, April 13, 2022 at 10:21 pm
Boerwar,
There are ways to stop capital flight. You use the heavy might of regulation and laws.
You could pass laws that say, to own Australian assets you need to be based 51% in Australia for mining operations, or have representation in Australia and that income produced on Australian resources must be paid through an Australian entity.
Secondly, you can make it illegal for Australians and those that do work in Australia to use or employ tax havens. Similar to Counter Terrorism finance laws, you can make it illegal to not report knowledge of hidden money crimes etc. (This is like cleaning up corruption wet dream stuff right here)
Pretty easy to do this btw, it’s a simple law just get a list from the ATO and make those firms illegal, we now have form with individual sanctions against Russians.
Thirdly, get the immigration minister to revoke citizenship’s and cancel passports (which are a privilege not a right thanks to the LNP)’
—————————————
Hang on. The Greens have guaranteed that there will neither be capital flight nor a capital strike. So there is no need for additional regulations.
In practice Argentina, the SYRIZANs, Venezuela all tried to regulate capital flows. They might have slowed capital flows. They might have distorted capital flows. But they failed miserably to stop them.
And there is no option for regulating a capital strike for incoming foreign investment. In relation to the latter the figures are in the trillions over forward estimates.
So “The Age” trot out “regular contributor” Professor Carney to join with Crowe, Harcher, Ulmann et al telling us the election has been run and won – by the clear, concise, redoubtable Morrison
And the ABC has Speers telling us the same – no doubt to be joined by Probyn, Grant et al
If you want a change of government federally in Australia and a different from elitist, sexist and racist trickle down agenda be very, very careful of media and their vested interest
Respond to the email addresses of these would be influencers calling them and their bias out
Remind them their employers can not give their papers away – offering home delivery for 3 months for $1- (with strings attached) to customers who have cancelled their deliveries (12 months ago!!!)
The positive is that, from Dunstan in SA with daily attacks, Dunstan won election after election in one paper jurisdiction
And just to add, imagine the media outrage if Albanese had responded to them as the Greens politician did?
“Albanese rude” , “Albanese deflects” etc etc
Back to visiting the businesses of Liberal Party members and donors
Mundo
So not really about the economy then but about personalities in which case Morrison and his lying is still the most despised according to umpteen polls. Voters can’t have it both ways.
D @ #38 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 7:21 am
‘Show me anything Morrison has touched that has been within budget, time & a legacy for the future.’
A fired up Anthony Albanese said earlier this morning.
Socrates
If Morrison is re-elected, I truly can’t imagine the state or character of Australia in three years time. It would just be a case of onward and downward like the UK and US.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, April 14, 2022 at 6:55 am
Scott Morrison doesn’t only have a candidate in Warringah that’s a Transphobe, he already has a Senator in parliament that is one (and, let’s be honest, it’s because these women are religious cranks):
Scott Morrison has backpedalled after flagging the Coalition might support a bill banning transgender women from playing women’s sport, following a backlash from Liberal moderates and independents.
Morrison said on Wednesday the Coalition “does not have any plans” for Liberal senator Claire Chandler’s private bill to become a government one.
The change of tack came as the government was forced into damage control over offensive social media posts about trans issues by Morrison’s hand-picked candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/13/scott-morrison-abandons-support-for-trans-sport-ban-after-hand-picked-candidate-katherine-deves-apologises-for-tweets
I don’t know why people let him get away with saying he was ‘unaware’ of her statements. Wasn’t she a hand-picked
”
1. Unaware of Katherine Deves statements
2. No ‘visibility’of $500000 Commonwealth payment to Tudge ex-lover.
3. Distances himself from ‘Reece’ after it was highlighted they will cut jobs in Australian manufacturing unit although he announced a day earlier that his re-elected government will create 1.3 million jobs.
Albo in Cessnock, meeting with traditional blue collar workers
Thank you BK.
I particularly liked how you summed up the article by Coorey. It is a perfect exemplar of horse race journalism.
Anthony Albanese wanted to be kicking with the wind in the final quarter. But he may find himself defending an early lead for too long against a scrapper like Scott Morrison, says Coorey.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/this-election-is-going-to-be-a-sprint-to-the-finish-20220412-p5acsl
sprocket_ @ #58 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:08 am
Scotty in Northern Tasmania blowing smoke up voters arses.
Tasmanian voters bending over to receive same.
So, read the David Crowe article today instead! It’s full of good advice for Albanese and Labor, and an atta boy! for deciding to cut his press conferences into shorter, more manageable bites.
C@tmomma @ #61 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:12 am
As we all remember, it worked for Monkey.
Ven,
Morrison can’t keep avoiding and evading responsibility for his party and his candidates’ statements and his own oversights for the whole 6 weeks. It becomes part of a pattern of trying to be someone else other than the leader of his party after a while and increasingly obvious to one and all.
Cronus @ #56 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:07 am
If Morrison is re-elected, I truly can’t imagine the state or character of Australia in three years time. It would just be a case of onward and downward like the UK and US.
Fixed it for you.
mundo, I don’t understand why we pander to Tasmania with its 2 swing seats – any thoughts?
A six week campaign might just be long enough for Morrison to hang himself with the rope his party keeps willingly supplying.
Be wary of listening to the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units hacks advice, they are not doing it for the good of Labor or the people of Australia
They will attack Albanese even more , for listening and doing to what they say
”
Victoriasays:
Thursday, April 14, 2022 at 7:07 am
C@t
For eg. Yesterday Morrison confused the name of the seat he was campaigning in.
If it was Albo, we would be reminded of it day in. Day out.
”
Like we are reminded day in and day out that Albo couldn’t remember some rates.
Because Bass and Braddon are classic marginal seats that regularly change hands, why both parties pay them a lot of attention
sprocket_ @ #65 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:15 am
Two seats, I guess.
Things have changed in the 27 years I’ve lived here. It used to be reliably red.
Ven @ #68 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:17 am
These kinds of insights are what makes campaign season so riviting.
The Morrison queues at Sydney Airport are another ‘lived experience’ of the results of casualisation of the workforce.
The ABC is now reporting that people who are not travelling for hours are not being allowed to check in to Sydney airport to try and make room for those with earlier flights.
The footage is absolute chaos.
Jane Hume this morning was saying the companies ‘employing’ the security screeners at the airports were ‘foreign owned’, so did not qualify for JobKeeper.
Well welcome to the world of the race to the bottom – happening in the transport industry as well with outfits like Aramex.
Pay $23 an hour, get your gig by text the night before, no conditions.
The media do not want a federal anti-corruption/Federal Integrity commission as much as the lib/nats do not want one.
Fair Disbursements Of Global Assets
@AusRobMillgate
·
2h
ALP has blown out to between $1.55 & $.160 to win the election, the trends in betting & Primary Votes in Opinion Polls being well below 40% is very concerning.
Anyone claiming LNP are Underdogs are telling #MorrisonLies
somethinglikethat @ #66 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:16 am
Or, just long enough to weave Miracle 2.0 into the warp and weft of Australian political history.
The month or so following election night is going to be truly unbearable.
Make plans to cope now.
Thank you, BK.
The Lying Reactionaries are lying about Labor and themselves, true to form.
Scott @ #72 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:22 am
An uncharacteristically fired-up Anthony Albanese said this morning.
Bludging @ #76 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:23 am
Mr Albanese said from Cessnock this morning in a blistering attack on the Liberal party.
Waiting to check in for a plane in a Morrison queue out the door and down the footpath?
However, Nick McIntosh — the Transport Workers Union’s assistant national secretary — said the staff shortage was a product of government failure and airline staff culls during the pandemic.
Mr McIntosh said a shift toward casualised work had seen thousands of former staff cut loose or turn their backs on the industry, saying many were also denied access to JobKeeper.
“There’s certainly a lot less staff in aviation than there were two years ago,” he said.
“People, unfortunately, no longer see aviation as a career because it’s a low-paid, casualised workforce.
“Until we change that, this is what we’re going to see in aviation during every peak period.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-14/sydney-airport-bracing-for-chaos-ahead-of-easter-long-weeken/100989598
“That is a candidate’s personal opinion that she has since apologised for.”
A claim from Jane Hume this morning. Has Deves apologised, and if so is that really all that is required? How sincere would such an apology be?
Here is more heart warming news.
Xi is helping pal Putin out and picking up a nice little earner on the way through.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/chinas-trade-with-russia-up-by-12-in-march-from-a-year-earlier
The thing is, a lot of Australians are content to be lied to. The children overboard example is the stand out. Voters knew the claims made by the Lying Reactionaries that children had been thrown into the ocean by their parents were fake. But they bought them anyway because they provided a cloak for their real feelings, which was a desire to repel the asylum seekers.
They don’t mind mind being lied to about Labor because in accepting the lies, they find an excuse for their real feelings – their Labor-phobia.
We live in times beset by escapism, phobias and ideological rationalisations. Lies are viable currency. People will pocket them and use them as needed.
“Among those who have had their time on the AAT pushed out is Karen Synon, who briefly served as a Liberal senator for Victoria in the late 1990s.
She was first appointed to the tribunal in July 2015, and her term was not due to expire until December 2023 — another 20 months.
However, in the week before Prime Minister Scott Morrison set the election date for May 21, triggering the federal government’s caretaker provisions, Attorney-General Michaelia Cash extended Ms Synon’s term through until May 2027.”
What was the rationale for extending Ms Synon’s term on the eve of an election, when it wasn’t due to expire until well after a new government would be sworn in?
Apparently the German Greens are more robust in wanting to help the Ukrainians militarily then the Social Democrats are!
@mundo – why worry about the month after when the pre-coping here is insufferable enough?
Everyone will be so worn down, you won’t need SfM to do it, lol
Anyone who doesn’t know what could happen is kidding themselves and, similarly, anyone thinking it definitely will is being equally delusional.
… said an irritated jt1983 this morning.
Briefly – what happened to the 2:1 Not a Lib Plurality? Was it false consciousness?
Richard Marles sharpening the message this morning on Today… will resonate with the lived experience of the last 3 years..
No. At the end of the day, Albo forgot a number. But he was out there straightaway, as a leader should be, to admit his mistakes.
The leadership from Scott Morrison doesn’t hold a hose. That is the contrast that we have seen this week. The mistake [from Albo], it was a completely harmless mistake.
Look at the mistakes that Scott Morrison has made over the last three years. Failing to roll out the vaccines on time and having us locked down around the country longer than we should have been. Not prepared for bushfires. The mistakes of aged care and not getting RATs on time.
Remember Xi’s promise not to militarize the South China sea grabs? The Chinese are now boasting about doing so.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1259239.shtml
Fact checking on PB.
Labor are at $1.35 to win the election, Liberals are at $3.05. Labor at $1.55 or $1.60 may have been accurate at a certain point in time, but even if it was, it is of no relevance now.
This is in from Liberals at $3.20 before triviagate and $3.30 before the election was called.
Good post Bludging.
People forum shop for a betting market that better suits their own political agenda. In reality, the betting markets provide very little insight.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, April 14, 2022 at 8:36 am
Richard Marles sharpening the message this morning on Today… will resonate with the lived experience of the last 3 years..
—
About time from Marles too. While watching Today isn’t my idea of a good time, it is for many, many other voters.
Clear, concise hits that actually land are what they need.
Is student debt really a significant issue in Australia?
The Age . Aug 2019
Three of Labor’s most senior figures including Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese argued against a new federal anti-corruption watchdog because some feared it would “make it very hard to govern”.
In revelations that could blunt Labor’s criticism of Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s proposal to tackle corruption in Canberra, former leader Bill Shorten faced fierce internal opposition during debates over the policy, including from his tight-knit leadership group members Penny Wong and Tony Burke.
_____________________
An oldie but a goodie.
The only way there will be a Federal ICAC is if Labor is forced into it by being in minority govt with the Greens.
Voice Endeavour @ #92 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:38 am
Betting markets on elections are self-selecting opinion polls for idiots and have no relevance. IMO.
jt1983 @ #85 Thursday, April 14th, 2022 – 8:35 am
I see what you did there 🙂
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, April 14, 2022 at 8:36 am
Richard Marles sharpening the message this morning on Today… will resonate with the lived experience of the last 3 years..
No. At the end of the day, Albo forgot a number. But he was out there straightaway, as a leader should be, to admit his mistakes.
The leadership from Scott Morrison doesn’t hold a hose. That is the contrast that we have seen this week. The mistake [from Albo], it was a completely harmless mistake.
Look at the mistakes that Scott Morrison has made over the last three years. Failing to roll out the vaccines on time and having us locked down around the country longer than we should have been. Not prepared for bushfires. The mistakes of aged care and not getting RATs on time.
———————————————————
How can anyone not agree to this excellent statement by Richard Marles