To mark the occasion of today’s announcement of May 21 as the date of the federal election, I have given my federal election guide a thorough overhaul, which it needed, having not been seriously updated since January. A great many candidates have been announced since then, among the most notable being those Liberal candidates in New South Wales whose positions were not confirmed until Friday, when the High Court definitively quashed a long-running challenge against the manner of their selection. In addition to confirming incumbents including Sussan Ley in Farrer, Alex Hawke in Mitchell and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney – the first two being cabinet ministers – a further nine candidates had been rubber-stamped by a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven, including five in seats of actual or potential interest:
• Jenny Ware, a moderate-aligned lawyer who works at Georges River Council, will run against Craig Kelly, now of the United Australia Party, in Hughes. The choice of Ware appeared to throw a bone to the local party membership, who were angered by earlier plans to impose Manly-resident PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore on the electorate. They were nonetheless deprived of the preselection ballot that would otherwise have pitted Ware against state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons, presumably reflecting Perrottet’s determination that there should be no by-election for Gibson’s existing seat.
• Jerry Nockles, Pharmacy Guild executive, navy veteran and former staffer to politicians including Senator Jim Molan, will be the candidate for Eden-Monaro. Dan Jervis-Bardy of The Canberra Times reports a rival candidate, former Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council deputy mayor Mark Schweikert, withdrew his nomination after the cancellation of a rank-and-file ballot, saying he did not wish to be seen to endorse the national executive’s takeover.
• Maria Kovacic, Franchise Council of Australia director and former owner of an ANZ franchise, will face off against Labor’s Andrew Charlton in Parramatta. Another nominee for the preselection was Charles Camenzuli, engineer and brother of Matt Camenzuli, who had pursued the legal action against the takeover of the preselection process.
• Katherine Deves, a lawyer and co-founder of a group that campaigns for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, will seek to recover Warringah from independent Zali Steggall. Deves was given dispensation to run despite not having been a financial party member for the requisite six months, as the party hierarchy cast around for an option better suited to local sentiment than arch-conservative Lincoln Parker.
• Pradeep Pathi, a project manager at Westpac, will run against Labor’s Michelle Rowland in Greenway, where he might find himself buoyed by the results of a new seat poll, on which more below.
Another legal issue worth noting is that the Liberal Democrats have found a loophole in legislation designed in large part to force them to drop the word “Liberal” from their name, and will accordingly contest the election under their existing name. Antony Green relates that the party withdrew its voluntary application to change its name on March 22, compelling the Australian Electoral Commission to lodge a notice to deregister it for falling foul of the new law, initiating a process that will not be complete by the time the existing register of parties is set in stone by the issue of the election writs.
Polling news:
• The News Corp papers yesterday published four seat polls by Redbridge, which were a mixed bag on voting intention, to the extent that the reporting allowed this to be discerned. A poll for Bass had the Liberals on 36% (down 6.3% on the 2019 result) and Labor on 36% (up 1.3%); in Paterson, Labor were on 38% (down 3.1%) and the Coalition were “0.58% higher”, which I think means 33%;; in Greenway, Labor was on 38% (down 7.9%) and Liberal were on 40% (down 0.6%); and in Longman, the Liberal National Party was on 34% (down 4.6%) and Labor were on 33% (down 1.1%). This suggests Labor would knock over a 0.4% margin in Bass but fail to defend its 2.8% margin in Greenway, while falling slightly short against a 3.3% margin in Longman and suffering a survivable swing against their 5.0% margin in Paterson. Results on economic questions seem to be worse for the Coalition than usual, with Labor “neck-and-neck” on economic management, cost of living and interest rates, and no majority support for the notion that the Liberals were “a safe pair of hands in these uncertain times” or that “taxes will always be higher under a Labor government”. The polls sampled “between 800 and 1000” respondents and were “conducted in the past week&8221; – further clarification on both counts will shortly be forthcoming when Redbridge publishes its methodology statement.
• InDaily has published results of a Greens-commissioned uComms poll from across South Australia showing Labor with a lead of 58-42, a swing in their favour of 7.3%. The primary votes were Liberal 33.2%, Labor 39.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 3.6% and One Nation 3.1%, with 5.6% undecided. The results in 2019 were Liberal 40.6% (plus 0.3% for the Nationals), Labor 35.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 4.3% and One Nation (who ran in only one seat) 0.8%. Also featured was a result on Senate voting intention, which was remarkably poor for Nick Xenophon: Liberal 32.2%, Labor 36.1%, Greens 11.6%, Nick Xenophon 5.2%, Rex Patrick 3.0%, One Nation 3.9% and United Australia Party 2.7%, compared with 2019 results of Liberal 37.8%, Labor 30.4%, Greens 10.9%, One Nation 4.9%, United Australia Party 3.0% and Centre Alliance 2.6%. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1052. InDaily reports the result were at odds with Labor internal polling conducted before Nick Xenophon announced his run, which found 16.3% would vote for him if he did so, along with 30.8% for Labor, 27.7% for Liberal, 8.9% for the Greens and 5.2% for One Nation.
Lars Von Trier @ #263 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 4:54 pm
I reckon Windsor and Oakeshott sleep well. And…
New England and Lyne in 2010 are not Goldstein, Wentworth, Warringah or Mayo in 2022. I also note that Steggall got a very high primary vote in 2019, higher than Abbott and Sharkie v Downer was neck and neck and note that the 2PP ALP v Lib in Mayo in 2019 was close. 52-48 iirc.
And, the ALP were the incumbents in 2010. Right now we have a 9 year old stale government which is the reason these indies are in the hunt.
Beware historical comparisons. These are different times.
The original sin ?
Well, One thing Albo does have that Rudd lacked is a faction that will support him.
I don’t need to do the Vote Compass to know how I’m going to vote this year.
As to where I sit in relation to others, I really don’t care.
I have a very short attention span and cant help but mess around with those vote compass things.
Looks like Yabba is living ‘rent free’ as well
P1 have you tried the wayback machine – you can regale us all with some of your bon mots from Queensland 2004?
Lars
Your assessment that independents are doomed if they support a government not related to the “natural” party of the electorate is not necessarily correct.
Both Windsor and Oakeshott were very popular and, I think, would have been returned with reduced majorities if the Gillard government had been successful.
In the end they were road kill for the Ruddster (not that he cared) and declined to run
Knock yourself out LVT.
OC – I’d need more persuading. Maybe the proposition is independents who support the unnatural party lose if the unnatural party becomes too unpopular / or the sins of the unnatural party get visited upon the independent?
Pi says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 6:35 pm
You should stick to commenting on events instead of flailing about trying to play the man.
__________
We already have one Briefly. Have some mercy on us.
poroti
Ay-up, they’re flat caps.
There is a fair bit of ‘anyone but the major parties’ sentiment out there.
Will be interesting to see how that plays out.
To be honest I find a six week election campaign way to long.
In fact, now I think about it, jeepers, 52-48 with a relative (splendid) nobody as the ALP candidate in Mayo. With virtually no funding. Why dont the ALP try a bit harder in Mayo? Even the state election young chap gave it a shake in Heysen.
BK would shoe it in if Sharkie retired.
I’m not really interested in your antecedents P1 – you raised your heritage, I was merely offering you a way of demonstrating same.
Spotto – first ALP ad on 6pm news for 7.
Now that the election date is out, the Greens can announce the route for their anti-coal convoy through the regional Queensland mining towns. It was certainly a high point of the 2019 election.
On the other hand I’ve ran into several thousand former Labor members in Melbourne who will be voting Liberal because they were kicked out of the party.
Where they belong most likely.
Shoe = shoo. I think.
There are many anti-party party people in Melbourne.
Depending upon events in the next term Labor may have an anti-party former party leader in each of the 3 eastern seaboard states. One for the political trivia junkies.
LVT, a twerp tried to insinuate that I was lacking a certain “originality”. If you have a problem with that conversational tangent, take it up with them. I’ll stick to commenting on the subject at hand thanks.
Well, I have just done the Vote Compass and, for whatever it is worth, this is the result:
– Centre-left
– Socially progressive
– I am closer to the ALP than to the Greens
– But I am closer to the Greens than to the LNP
Yep, it does make sense…..
There have been reports that Liberal candidates don’t want Morrison anywhere near them, others have changed to a different shade of blue in their campaign material and the Liberal logo is nowhere to be seen in some seats.
Any Labor candidates distancing themselves from Albanese because of something about his teeth? or how to pronounce his name?
Is ROwe having a dig at the AFR political journos there? Isnt that the rag he works for?
P1 – you have claimed OG status – but now it seems you can’t prove it? Perhaps you misspoke or mistyped (more accurately)?
Labor partisans need to bow down and worship Albo.
Not only has he done Morrison slowly, he’s also doing the Shorts slowly.
Albo has done this despite the ongoing great split of Labor which has been raging since back in 2010 due to fossil fuel policy.
The bloke is a miracle worker – and should go down as a legend on election night.
Six weeks…. SfM hoping the electorate forgets how corrupt & inept his government is … & time for some clear air from the last disastrous session of Parliament.
Simon Katich @ #364 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 6:44 pm
So might you, SK. Ever thought about it? 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/apr/10/settle-in-for-a-long-grind-election-is-going-to-be-core-brutal-scott-morrison?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
It’s gonna be a loooooong 6 weeks.
STRONG ACTION ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS IS POSSIBLE
We’re fighting for everyone’s future.
Coal and gas corporations are causing the climate crisis, driving up pollution and making fires, floods and droughts worse.
Liberal and Labor take big donations from the big corporations and billionaires, and give them special treatment.
The Greens don’t. We put people first.
The only time pollution went down in this country was when the Greens were in the balance of power in 2010.
We pushed the Labor government to introduce world-leading climate legislation, before Abbott tore it all down.
This election is our chance to do it again.
Our first demand this election: an immediate freeze on all new coal, oil and gas projects.
https://greens.org.au/climate-crisis
Yes, this election is too important – far too important to not put the Greens first and Labor somewhere above the Coalition. We know the Greens will act to tackle the climate emergency and inequality, just as we know the Greens will implement their policy of a real federal ICAC with teeth to put the broom through both Labor and the Coalition.
LVT, I stomped on a twerp who tried to play the man not the ball. If you want to investigate that further, go for your lfe. My advice? Don’t do that. It detracts from real discussion.
Interesting, Govt propaganda ads are still running tonight
Election timetable:
Election Announced 10/04/2022
Postal vote applications open 10/04/2022
Issue of writ 11/04/2022
Rolls Close 18/04/2022
Nominations close 21/04/2022
Ballot draw 22/04/2022
Early voting commences 9/05/2022
Postal applications close 18/05/2022
Election day 21/05/2022
Last day for receipt of declaration votes (postals etc) 3/06/2022
Return of writs 28/07/2022
no one is going to object to the disability rc ads fumbles I would have thought.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #381 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 6:52 pm
Till parliament is dissolved at 9.26am tomorrow?
@Dr – because the Government isn’t in Caretaker until tomorrow morning.
If there’s a chance to rort, the LNP doesn’t pass up the opportunity until the very last second.
Lars,
My sincere commiserations to you and yours on the sad death of your great-aunt Eunice. Some may say that at her age, she had a good innings but try telling that to a circa 109-year-old Labor stalwart. I trust great-aunt Mathilde is in robust health & witnesses the election of an Albanese-led government, as I’m sure you will be.
Furtive Lawngnome says:
“I can’t see any world where Wilson survives that”
He’d better block-book the Prayer Room.
For actual praying.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 6:43 pm
OC – I’d need more persuading. Maybe the proposition is independents who support the unnatural party lose if the unnatural party becomes too unpopular / or the sins of the unnatural party get visited upon the independent?
In 1995 Liz Cunningham- Independent Gladstone (naturally Labor electorate) supported Rob Borbidge (Nat) to bring down the Goss Labor Government. She held on to Gladstone until her retirement in 2015.
In 1998 Peter Wellington – Independent Nicklin (then naturally LNP now very marginal Labor) supported Peter Beattie (Labor) to form Government. He supported Annastacia Palazscuck in 2015 (and became speaker) retiring unhurt in 2018.
Several thousand?
Thank you Mavis.
Mathilde is determined to hang on for Albo – she was very upset today when people switched off their hearing aids at her retirement community when Albo’s press conference came up on the communal telly.
SK
Labor would NEVER get in up here!
Oliver S – do you think there is an element of homophobia in the anti-Liberal campaigns in North Sydney and Goldstein?
Thanks upnorth – maybe good points, I’ll give your and OC’s points more thought.
@ LVT – most welcome good sir.
BeaglieBoy @ #353 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 6:40 pm
Amazing how I’m apparently viewed as absent, despite the fact that I’ve posted a few times today, in between a spot of phone banking. It looks like nath may be slipping back into his insincere, smarty-pants persona. A shame. Lars has had a personality transplant this year, although it plainly struggles from time to time. I now just feel sad for GG.
I intend to strive to not upset our esteemed leader.
Alpo says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 6:00 pm
Challenge: How long will it take for the ridiculous proposition of a “hung parliament” to be abandoned and quietly swept under the carpet?
My take: After the second Newspoll in the campaign.
——————————————————————–
Let’s eliminate the expression entirely. It’s stupid and misleading because it suggests that minority governments can’t achieve anything. A majority Labor government would be ideal, but let’s not clutch our pearls at the possibility of a minority Parliament.
One of Canada’s most productive governments was Lester Pearson’s Liberal minority regime in the 1960’s.
The Pearson-led Liberals could not win a parliamentary majority in two elections after defeating John Diefenbaker’s Conservatives.
Nevertheless, in four years, the two minority parliaments transformed Canada.
They produced two of Canada’s most iconic achievements: a full, “everything bulk billed” universal Medicare and that country’s distinctive maple leaf flag to replace the red ensign with its Union Jack..
In addition it negotiated with the provinces to provide a national contributory pension scheme, the Canada Pension Plan.
And the current minority Justin Trudeau government has allied with the New Democratic Party to work towards bringing in a national and universal dental care program, a pharmacare program and $10-a -day child care.
Now THAT’s a hung Parliament!
Yabba ….it was in reference to GG seemingly naming his cute new puppy after you.
Catherine Renshaw in North Sydney is Jack’s daughter in law (according to her website.
Interesting as Jack would now be 113 if still alive. It is 57 years since he lost power in NSW after 24 years of continuous ALP government. It was the first election I was allowed to stay up to watch the results – much grieving in the OC home that night.