To mark the occasion of today’s announcement of May 21 as the date of the federal election, I have given my federal election guide a thorough overhaul, which it needed, having not been seriously updated since January. A great many candidates have been announced since then, among the most notable being those Liberal candidates in New South Wales whose positions were not confirmed until Friday, when the High Court definitively quashed a long-running challenge against the manner of their selection. In addition to confirming incumbents including Sussan Ley in Farrer, Alex Hawke in Mitchell and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney – the first two being cabinet ministers – a further nine candidates had been rubber-stamped by a committee consisting of Scott Morrison, Dominic Perrottet and former party president Christine McDiven, including five in seats of actual or potential interest:
• Jenny Ware, a moderate-aligned lawyer who works at Georges River Council, will run against Craig Kelly, now of the United Australia Party, in Hughes. The choice of Ware appeared to throw a bone to the local party membership, who were angered by earlier plans to impose Manly-resident PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore on the electorate. They were nonetheless deprived of the preselection ballot that would otherwise have pitted Ware against state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons, presumably reflecting Perrottet’s determination that there should be no by-election for Gibson’s existing seat.
• Jerry Nockles, Pharmacy Guild executive, navy veteran and former staffer to politicians including Senator Jim Molan, will be the candidate for Eden-Monaro. Dan Jervis-Bardy of The Canberra Times reports a rival candidate, former Queanbeyan-Palerang Regional Council deputy mayor Mark Schweikert, withdrew his nomination after the cancellation of a rank-and-file ballot, saying he did not wish to be seen to endorse the national executive’s takeover.
• Maria Kovacic, Franchise Council of Australia director and former owner of an ANZ franchise, will face off against Labor’s Andrew Charlton in Parramatta. Another nominee for the preselection was Charles Camenzuli, engineer and brother of Matt Camenzuli, who had pursued the legal action against the takeover of the preselection process.
• Katherine Deves, a lawyer and co-founder of a group that campaigns for strict definitions of biological sex in women’s sport, will seek to recover Warringah from independent Zali Steggall. Deves was given dispensation to run despite not having been a financial party member for the requisite six months, as the party hierarchy cast around for an option better suited to local sentiment than arch-conservative Lincoln Parker.
• Pradeep Pathi, a project manager at Westpac, will run against Labor’s Michelle Rowland in Greenway, where he might find himself buoyed by the results of a new seat poll, on which more below.
Another legal issue worth noting is that the Liberal Democrats have found a loophole in legislation designed in large part to force them to drop the word “Liberal” from their name, and will accordingly contest the election under their existing name. Antony Green relates that the party withdrew its voluntary application to change its name on March 22, compelling the Australian Electoral Commission to lodge a notice to deregister it for falling foul of the new law, initiating a process that will not be complete by the time the existing register of parties is set in stone by the issue of the election writs.
Polling news:
• The News Corp papers yesterday published four seat polls by Redbridge, which were a mixed bag on voting intention, to the extent that the reporting allowed this to be discerned. A poll for Bass had the Liberals on 36% (down 6.3% on the 2019 result) and Labor on 36% (up 1.3%); in Paterson, Labor were on 38% (down 3.1%) and the Coalition were “0.58% higher”, which I think means 33%;; in Greenway, Labor was on 38% (down 7.9%) and Liberal were on 40% (down 0.6%); and in Longman, the Liberal National Party was on 34% (down 4.6%) and Labor were on 33% (down 1.1%). This suggests Labor would knock over a 0.4% margin in Bass but fail to defend its 2.8% margin in Greenway, while falling slightly short against a 3.3% margin in Longman and suffering a survivable swing against their 5.0% margin in Paterson. Results on economic questions seem to be worse for the Coalition than usual, with Labor “neck-and-neck” on economic management, cost of living and interest rates, and no majority support for the notion that the Liberals were “a safe pair of hands in these uncertain times” or that “taxes will always be higher under a Labor government”. The polls sampled “between 800 and 1000” respondents and were “conducted in the past week&8221; – further clarification on both counts will shortly be forthcoming when Redbridge publishes its methodology statement.
• InDaily has published results of a Greens-commissioned uComms poll from across South Australia showing Labor with a lead of 58-42, a swing in their favour of 7.3%. The primary votes were Liberal 33.2%, Labor 39.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 3.6% and One Nation 3.1%, with 5.6% undecided. The results in 2019 were Liberal 40.6% (plus 0.3% for the Nationals), Labor 35.4%, Greens 9.6%, United Australia Party 4.3% and One Nation (who ran in only one seat) 0.8%. Also featured was a result on Senate voting intention, which was remarkably poor for Nick Xenophon: Liberal 32.2%, Labor 36.1%, Greens 11.6%, Nick Xenophon 5.2%, Rex Patrick 3.0%, One Nation 3.9% and United Australia Party 2.7%, compared with 2019 results of Liberal 37.8%, Labor 30.4%, Greens 10.9%, One Nation 4.9%, United Australia Party 3.0% and Centre Alliance 2.6%. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1052. InDaily reports the result were at odds with Labor internal polling conducted before Nick Xenophon announced his run, which found 16.3% would vote for him if he did so, along with 30.8% for Labor, 27.7% for Liberal, 8.9% for the Greens and 5.2% for One Nation.
What does “same isn’t safe” even mean?
Is someone called Same under threat?”
Same = Freedom Boy
got 75% ALP 61% Green 41% Lib
If they are conservative electorates then they will vote for a conservative Liberal candidate. If the “independents” win they they will do so on the back ALP prefs and a bunch of people who want change and arent afraid of some progressive policies on the Indie platform.
The only way these right leaning indies could honestly support a coalition government would be if that Coalition looks a heck of a lot different to the ratbags they currently are. And with the Nationals, these are spots that dont change. IMO, an ALP government would support wholeheartedly the indie policy agenda and the LNP would thwart it at every op. The Nationals will never support the indies agenda – they would lose their perks and their seats.
So, if an indie wins on a platform of change – on Climate, Fed ICAC (etc), good governance, female empowerment… – then how the heck can they support a Coalition that the loonies have by the ‘nads? Even if you add in ‘economic conservatism’ it still shouldnt change the dynamic in the LNP favour. Especially if the ALP get a clear 2PP majority, 1 seat from majority (if you include Wilkie) and by far the largest party in the house. Just for stability youd think the indies would support the ALP.
Finally, imagine the chaos in who would become the leader of this motley crew of a minority government. Imagine the policy chaos. We have had a policy desert for 9 years already. F. Enough!
Two things:
1) Saw Albo’s presser. Was really impressed. The line about wanting to take pups home made me cringe, but I’m soulless. I think he appears likeable without going over the top, and if Morrison keeps on telling people we don’t know who Albo is, this will only be a bonus for Albo b/c with each day of the election campaign that goes by, he can reveal more and more about himself.
2) North Sydney area – thought I’d drive around for a bit to get a break. Lots of corflute signs. I’d say 50% Kylea Tink (ind), 35% Zimmerman (LNP) and 15% Renshaw (ALP). I think it’s looking very likely Kylea will win here 🙂
Thank the Lord.
I thought they may have been attacking everyone alphabetically, and I was getting close.
Pi says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 4:31 pm
Arky: “2007 was one of three times since WW2 that an ALP leader has won a Federal election from opposition. None of them are easy.”
That’s a ridiculous statistic.
The point is that since WW2, when contesting elections from Opposition, Labor have a lose/win ratio of 1/6. Labor is now in Opposition. On the face of it, they ought to lose. If they win it will be a rare event in Australian political history.
The Lying Reactionaries nearly always win. This is the form guide to Australian Federal elections. If Labor win this time it will because of the state of decay in Reactionary politics. Elections are not even-start races. Incumbents commence with an advantage and the LRP are the incumbents again.
Lars,
Your boys are toast!
I don’t have much truck with ‘tactical voting’. Rather than win the argument on the basis of policy and position, the argument is to play the system.
I do what I do with all government issued forms and follow the instructions.
“Number the boxes from X to X in the order of your choice”
Simple.
Fulvio: “What does “same isn’t safe” even mean?”
Ms Daniels explained it. If you are interested, here is the transcript to her speech.
https://nofibs.com.au/transcript-zoe-daniel-rallies-community-power-to-make-goldsteinvotes-history/
THANK YOU FOR being here.
Thank you for finding your voices and for helping me to find mine.
Thank you for being part of history.
Because make no mistake, we are on the brink of great and optimistic change.
This grass roots movement, this community campaign has shown that Goldstein can lead.
We can do politics differently; we can come together across the political spectrum for a common cause and we can work together for a better future.
We can collaborate, we can problem solve and we can progress – if our party political system can’t do it – we will make it happen ourselves.
Someone has to.
Today, in this audience, I see people who usually vote liberal, labor, green, I see swinging voters, I see older voters, I see new voters and I see future voters.
Why are we all here?
Because it’s time to act. It’s the next 3 years that matter.
And if not us, who? If not now, when?
The same is not safe.
No matter who I talk to when I’m out and about in the community, when I ask, are you happy with Australian politics as it is?
The answer is a resounding – NO.
When I ask, do you trust our leadership?
NO
We have the power to change that.
With our voices, and our votes.
We don’t have to tolerate poor leadership, lack of planning and strategy and dysfunctional government.
We can do better…and we must.
Because more of the same means more of the same; and the same is not safe.
The same is not safe for our climate, our economy and prosperity, our hard-earned taxpayers’ money and our women and girls.
The same is not safe for our elderly in aged care, the same is not safe for our young people.
Toast, Chicken what’s for dessert GG?
Wilson really is toast.
SK – if you represent a seat like Mayo, Warringah or Indi – being an independent is the only way you win if your not a Liberal.
If your the reason (or are seen to be the reason) a minority Labor Government is in office then you wont survive the next election.
It’s basically why both Windsor and Oakeshott didn’t recontest in 2013.
‘Pi says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 5:19 pm
Fulvio: “What does “same isn’t safe” even mean?”
Ms Daniels explained it. If you are interested, here is the transcript to her speech.
https://nofibs.com.au/transcript-zoe-daniel-rallies-community-power-to-make-goldsteinvotes-history/
THANK YOU FOR being here.
Thank you for finding your voices and for helping me to find mine.
Thank you for being part of history.
Because make no mistake, we are on the brink of great and optimistic change.
This grass roots movement, this community campaign has shown that Goldstein can lead.
We can do politics differently; we can come together across the political spectrum for a common cause and we can work together for a better future.
We can collaborate, we can problem solve and we can progress – if our party political system can’t do it – we will make it happen ourselves.
Someone has to.
Today, in this audience, I see people who usually vote liberal, labor, green, I see swinging voters, I see older voters, I see new voters and I see future voters.
Why are we all here?
Because it’s time to act. It’s the next 3 years that matter.
And if not us, who? If not now, when?
The same is not safe.
No matter who I talk to when I’m out and about in the community, when I ask, are you happy with Australian politics as it is?
The answer is a resounding – NO.
When I ask, do you trust our leadership?
NO
We have the power to change that.
With our voices, and our votes.
We don’t have to tolerate poor leadership, lack of planning and strategy and dysfunctional government.
We can do better…and we must.
Because more of the same means more of the same; and the same is not safe.
The same is not safe for our climate, our economy and prosperity, our hard-earned taxpayers’ money and our women and girls.
The same is not safe for our elderly in aged care, the same is not safe for our young people.’
———————————————–
100% political vapourware. There is zero policy substance.
Bludging: “The point is that since WW2, when contesting elections from Opposition, Labor have a lose/win ratio of 1/6”
Then quote that statistic, because the other one is meaningless.
Standing room up the back is all that’s left.
Gotta be early or miss out.
#Mon4Kooyong #KooyongVotes https://t.co/2R3DUzd6pd
Boerwar: 100% political vapourware. There is zero policy substance.
Fulvio asked what “same isn’t safe” means. I quoted the transcript of what it means from the person using it as their slogan.
And quite frankly, if it delivers us a Federal ICAC and action on climate change because it forces the LNP into opposition, I don’t give a proverbial flying thing where it comes from.
Yep. It’s like the Greens want the coalition to be re-elected.
This is the prize: https://twitter.com/AlboMP/status/1513003521959874560
“If I have the honour of serving as Prime Minister, I can promise you this: I will lead with integrity – and treat you with respect.
I will restore faith in our political system by ending the waste and rorts, and establishing a strong National Anti Corruption Commission.”
Victoria @ #265 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 5:26 pm
beautiful
Vic:
At first I thought that was a Frydenberg turnout, but then I realised there are women and young people in the audience 😆
Re Mysterious @5:03.
”North Sydney area – thought I’d drive around for a bit to get a break. Lots of corflute signs. I’d say 50% Kylea Tink (ind), 35% Zimmerman (LNP) and 15% Renshaw (ALP).”
That would be roughly my guesstimate, maybe a bit more than 50% for Ms Tink with the remainder roughly 2:1 between Mr Zimmerman and Ms Renshaw. I’d qualify that by saying it’s mostly North and West (so away from the Harbour / Middle Harbour).
Letterbox flyers seem to break the same way. The occasional flyer from Victor Kline (the New Liberals) and one or two UAP. I’ve seen the Liberals campaigning in the local shopping centre and Ms Renshaw at Chatswood station.
We’ll see how it goes now that the campaign proper has started. Ms Renshaw actually seems to be quite a strong candidate but it’s hard to see her winning North Sydney. The last Labor member was Billy Morris Hughes.
Here’s a bit of trivia, on such a big day
It’s 5 yrs to day that the great …… John Clarke passed away Vale John and RIP.
ABC Vote Compass. Pretty spot on. For me, anyway.
yabba
Go down almost to the middle axis and you’ll find me.
Katie Allen’s campaign. Looks very light on numbers.
Greens leader Adam Bandt believes Labor could be forced to strike a power-sharing deal with his party, should the May 21 poll deliver a hung Parliament: “For the Opposition to win in their own right they’re going to need a swing that they’ve only got once in the last 20 years.”
_________________________________
Yes. And that was the last time Labor won from Opposition in its own right. That sort of statistic is meaningless.
I have just read a speech from the heart that inspires me.
Yes, Zoe. It’s yours.
Magnificent.
Gareth @ #259 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
Wouldn’t that be an invalid vote in a federal election? We don’t have Optional Preferential Voting. So you can’t just put an ‘X’ in one box! 😉
I find those compass things worse than useless. They paint a picture of the LNP actually having policies, or will do what they say they’re going to do. If they correctly assigned the LNP with their actions in government, the questions would be more like :
– Do you support corruption?
– Do you want our world to burn?
– Do you want to shield rapists from the consequences of their actions?
– Do you hate people who have different skin colour than you?
– Do you want to torture refugees?
– Do you want to punish non-christians for their beliefs?
That would better reflect whether you’re an LNP voter.
Mr Mysterious says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 5:03 pm
Saw Albo’s presser. Was really impressed. The line about wanting to take pups home made me cringe, but I’m soulless. I think he appears likeable without going over the top, and if Morrison keeps on telling people we don’t know who Albo is, this will only be a bonus for Albo b/c with each day of the election campaign that goes by, he can reveal more and more about himself.
__________________________
I listened on the radio (I was driving) to a fair whack of it. I was pretty impressed. He was putting his credentials out there and was good. I don’t know if you’re soulless, but dog lovers are a breed apart and his smoky comments would appeal to them (and to me somewhat). The only cringeworthy moment I heard was when he screwed up his attempt to say the Government would wheel out his primary school report card.
As for the Liar continually going on about how nobody knows who Albanese is, it is an open invitation to the disengaged public to pay more attention to him. So far, that has only worked to Albanese’s advantage. It would have to be a massive mistake to turn that around.
One final point. Labor does not have a small target strategy. What it also doesn’t have to the teeth grinding chagrin of the Coalition and the biased media, is a willingness to put a great big bloody target on itself with concentric circles to guide the bullseye.
lars,
Pseudo pornographers!
Labor will not need any cross bench support in House of reps , if the lib/nats combined primary vote is below 40%
The only question will be how big labor’s majority be in the house of reps
Pi,
You left out:
– Do you put accumulation of assets and wealth at the centre of your universe?
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 5:45 pm
Apologies that should have been 1 to X. Where X is an unknown integer.
🙂
I’ve had a few drinks.
Does Adam Bandt realise that a Greens’ power-sharing arrangement with Labor is a Coalition talking point? Amplifying it plays right into their wheelhouse.
Gareth @ #285 Sunday, April 10th, 2022 – 5:52 pm
No wuckas, mate. 😀
‘Pi says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 5:27 pm
Boerwar: 100% political vapourware. There is zero policy substance.
Fulvio asked what “same isn’t safe” means. I quoted the transcript of what it means from the person using it as their slogan.
And quite frankly, if it delivers us a Federal ICAC and action on climate change because it forces the LNP into opposition, I don’t give a proverbial flying thing where it comes from.’
——————————————————-
There was zero policy substance in that explanatory text for ‘same isn’t safe’. ZERO.
GG – you must be missing yabba, not sure why your trying to drag me into. I’ve said I think Albo will win.
Maybe I will be wrong and maybe he will win a yuge landslide – who knows?
I’m perfectly happy for the Teals to win seats from the Liberals, in cases where Labor has little chance of winning.
“yabba says:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 5:38 pm”
I can’t judge your position in the Vote Compass, yabba, but that position for the ALP is laughable! Slightly socially conservative and economically neutral?…. Oh dear!
The Liberals need to gain 1 seat to keep majority status so if they lose 3 or 4 to the Teals they wont be forming government because where are they finding gains.
Spoke to Zoe Daniel supporters after the rally, they said she wasn’t promising huge changes. GetUp are mounting a campaign in Goldstein
MonRyan campaign launch held at Hawthorn Town Hall, seats 500+
Just checked the 60 faces at the Katie Allen launch.
She has lost Trish, the tireless volunteer coordinator for Kelly O’Dwyer
“citizensays:
Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 5:55 pm
I’m perfectly happy for the Teals to win seats from the Liberals, in cases where Labor has little chance of winning.”…
Yep, Labor winning quite few Liberal seats + Teals winning some “safe” Liberal seats = Coalition Armageddon.
C@T
Yep, every time Bandt talks about governing with Labor the Liberals cheer.
Dumb as a hammer.
If the Greens’ perceived relationship with Labor is pushed as being bad, Albo should HAMMER the toxic relationship between Liberal and the Nats when in government. Keep plugging that the Libs are Joyce’s patsies. There are plenty of examples of this to draw upon.
Looks like Kate Allen’s family turned up for the photo shoot.
And that’s about all.
Sure it wasn’t a family BBQ get together.
Lars,
If you think I have missed Yabba, you have not been paying attention.
My wife bought a new pup today. Working name is Yabba the Mutt!
Boerwar, I care about defeating the LNP as the number one priority. I guess you and me are just different.
Vote Compass questions are so vague and without context that all it really does is herd your result to close to the party you already vote for.
“Political parties should have gender quotas that require them to have a comparable number of male and female Parliamentarians.” – ‘should have’ can be read as quotas being enforced, suggested, best practice. With each of those options skewing your answer.