The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have published the monthly Reseolve Strategic poll has Labor up three points on the primary vote to 38% – two points clear of its previous best result out of the ten polls since this series began in April last year – with the Coalition on 34% (up one on last time, but still its equal second worst result), the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down one to 2% and the United Australia Party steady on 3%. Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party numbers, but my calculation based on 2019 preference flows has this at 54.7-45.3 in favour of Labor, exceeding their previous best of 53.1-46.9 in the last poll.
The picture of improvement for Labor carries through to a 37-36 lead to Anthony Albanese on preferred prime minister, his first ever lead on this measure from Resolve Strategic and a rather dramatic shift from Morrison’s 39-30 lead last time. Despite this, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings have actually improved slightly after a slump last time, his approval up one to 39% and disapproval down three to 53%, while Anthony Albanese’s are only slightly changed, his approval up two to 38% and disapproval steady on 42%.
The geographic breakdowns show that the change in Labor’s favour comes from what the pollster identifies as “rest of Australia”, meaning all of it except for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, the three states for which it deems results worth publishing given sample size constraints. Labor’s primary vote here has rocketed from over three monthly polls from 35% to 40% to 47%, with the Coalition progressing from 33% to 34% to 30%. My accounting of the two-party vote in three largest states is that Labor has gained by less than one point in each over the past month, recording leads of 52.9-47.1 in New South Wales, 54.7-45.3 in Victoria and 51.3-48.7 in Queensland (an unusually narrow gap between Victoria and Queensland).
This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.
Also out yesterday was a new poll from Roy Morgan, which normally reports fortnightly but seems to have made an exception for budget week, finds Labor recovering much of what it lost in last week’s poll, its two-party preferred having progressed over three polls from 58-42 to 55.5-44.5 to 57-43 in the latest result. Labor bounces four points on the primary vote to 39.5% despite the Coalition being unchanged on 33%, with the Greens down one-and-a-half to 11%, One Nation steady at 3.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1%, with independents and others down two-and-a-half points to 12%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading in every state: by 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53-47, a swing of around 7%), 60.5-39.5 in Victoria (out from 60-40, a swing of around 7.5%), 50.5-49.5 in Queensland (the Coalition led 51-49 last time, the swing now being around 9%), 59-41 in Western Australia (out from 57-43, a swing of around 14.5%), 56-44 in South Australia (in from 63.5-36.5, a swing of around 5.5%) and fully 74-26 from the tiny sample in Tasmania. The poll was conducted last Monday to this Sunday from a sample of 1367.
There is still more good news for Labor in the shape of two seat polls of Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, conducted by uComms for the Australia Institute, which show Labor leading 57-43 in Boothby and 52-48 in Sturt, from respective swings of 8.4% and 8.9%. After allocated results of a forced-response follow-up for the 7.0% who were initially undecided in Boothby, the primary votes are Labor 36.3% (up 1.7% on 2019), Liberal 33.9% (down 11.3%), independent Jo Dyer 8.6%, Greens 11.4% (down 0.6%), One Nation 4.8% and United Australia Party 3.0% (up 1.1%). With the same done for the 11.0% undecided in Sturt, the results are Liberal 38.4% (down 12.2%), Labor 33.0% (up 3.1%), Greens 11.3% (up 0.1%), One Nation 5.0% and United Australia Party 4.1% (up 1.7%).
Also featured are questions on budget response that broadly similar to those of Newspoll with respect to personal impact but quite a lot worse for economic impact, plus questions on the Murray Darling Basin Plan and oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight. The polls were conducted last Wednesday from samples of 801 in Boothby and 809 in Sturt.
I never liked Gladys and I always will.
There’s a maturity (encapsulated for example in the concept of hosting climate change talks and embracing Pacific neighbours) about Labor, its people and its plans, that is surfacing in people’s minds I think, making the Cons look more and more like short pants school yard brawlers fighting over petty self interests, and that’s being generous.
Not a lot of the narrowing in this set, IMO.
Looking back I would guess that Labor lost around 1% because of the media attention on Kitching.
Other than that the question I would have is how the polling account for this: the Teals are only standing in a limited number of seats. But the polls are tallied on a national basis.
”
Cronussays:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 5:59 am
Confessions
He has a real credibility mountain to overcome on this issue given that it seems mostly women are complaining against him regarding bullying. He’s just giving us an insight into his parallel universe, this really just reeks of marketing and I hope will be seen for what it is.
”
Cronus and Confessions
But that is not what polls are saying and that is what concerning me a bit.
WB:
”
This month’s gender breakdowns are a bit of a head-scratcher, particularly coming after an Ipsos poll that found Labor’s two-party vote to be 11 points higher among women than men. By my reckoning, Resolve Strategic has it over five points the other way, with Labor leading 57.7-42.3 among men, out from 52.7-47.3 last month, and 52.4-47.6 among women, in from 52.7-47.3. Similar peculiarities emerge in the personal ratings, with Morrison up six on approval among women to 44% and down five on disapproval to 51%, while preferred prime minister among men has flipped from 42-31 in favour of Morrison to 42-35 in favour of Albanese. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1618.”
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 6:02 am
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
·
10h
The Prime Minister just told ABC 730 Gladys Berejiklian “denies” the “horrible, horrible person” text. That is an out and out lie. #auspol
Cronus:
A definite credibility gap!
”
PVO: “That is an out and out lie.”
That is a huge thing to say in public especially when one is in employ of Murdoch Press.
Let’s not forget that Morrison’s propensity to shit people off for personal and for party political purposes has plenty of other victims.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-06/red-wine-grape-oversupply-hurts-sunraysia-growers/100966256
BW, further to the grape oversupply, it may explain why at a local round-a-bout there is a large pile of grapes that seem to have come of a truck in recent days. I’m not sure which local grower did it but thanks for the explanation:-p
Some local views on Musk buying a 9% stake in Twitter (a mere $4 Bill) and the push for ‘more’ freedom of speech.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2022/04/05/twitter-elon-musk-future/?
That UAP jingle. It’s so bad it’s kind of hypnotic.
”
Cronussays:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 6:12 am
And just like clockwork, the seemingly endless defence procurement debacle continues:
“At the same time, the Defence Department is refusing to answer questions about progress on an earlier related program for the army’s Combat Reconnaissance Vehicles (CRVs), with military insiders warning the Boxer project is facing numerous technical problems.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-06/multi-billion-dollar-army-vehicle-project-facing-cutbacks/100968910
”
Clockwork indeed!
IMHO, which is not worth much, there appears to be incompetence in defence procurement, which is leading to continuous debacles.
There should be RC into Defence procurements.
There seems to be something wrong ( I don’t want to say that Defence Department stinks) in Defence department. For example, Awarding Victoria Cross medal to BRS and all these Defence procurement debacles.
Dutton is announcing defence procurements just before elections like confetti.
Don Harwin gets a seat on the Australia Council.
https://limelightmagazine.com.au/news/don-harwin-among-new-appointments-to-australia-council-board/
“Rodents, cockroaches and insects take refuge in people’s homes while mozzies ‘breed like crazy’, pest experts warn”
Yes – huge problem in NSW.
I have lost my Buddhist touch of relocating bugs outside and Mrs Shellbell is just getting a incy wincy bit sadistic
Good to see more polling out there. A greater variety should give a better picture.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 6:21 am
Confessions @ #8 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 6:02 am
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP
·
10h
The Prime Minister just told ABC 730 Gladys Berejiklian “denies” the “horrible, horrible person” text. That is an out and out lie. #auspol
Cronus:
A definite credibility gap!
What is totally amazing is that there is evidence in black and white that Morrison is lying about this, but still he lies about it!
”
Did you see the evidence in ‘Black and white’? They are only PVO words. How do we know whether PVO is lying or not?
ItzaDream @ #58 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:06 am
It is said he wants Donald Trump back on Twitter. THAT’S his ‘hard line on free speech’. 😐
Ven @ #64 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:17 am
No. news.com.au has published screen shots of the actual text messages between Gladys and an unnamed senior Coalition MP.
Musk is no fan of Trump, although Trump is probably a fan of Musk.
Musk certainly has a problem with Biden, and for good reason.
No. news.com.au has published screen shots of the actual text messages between Gladys and an unnamed senior Coalition MP.
_______________________________
So Gladys is a liar for denying it. And poor Scott took her at her word. 😮
The Chinese community is a significant voting cohort in both Melbourne and Sydney – in critical seats.
This rubbish wins no one any votes. But it will be blamed on the LNP, even if they did not have a direct hand in it and it will cost them votes.
Seen in Melbourne. Gonna be a fun campaign. https://t.co/FnE1RDCKNn
A pilot’s neat explainer of GPS, our dependence on it, and jamming and its implications.
(There is a news source promo in the middle of the video.)
https://youtu.be/8xPeZfEExy8
nath @ #67 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:22 am
Unions.
It’s over. It will be a defeat of historic proportions. Ordinary Australians have had enough. Yes, thanks for getting us through the pandemic- but that was your job. But we are looking ahead and we don’t want any more of this Prime Minister, rightly or wrongly.
It’s time. To move on, to get a more trustworthy PM, to get a more cohesive government and the list goes on .
Rupert has sniffed the mood. He will give Labor a fair hearing. It will be a million miles from coverage with Shorten as leader.
Morrison is on the defensive every day. And that won’t go away. In fact, it will intensify as the NSW division continue with their stabbing. And Turnbull won’t be far away, every day.
At least 80 seats. Bank on it. I know from long experience that once the campaign starts the way this one has for Morrison, it will ramp up. Make that 85 seats.
Jaeger @ #68 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:23 am
A message from the Queen will come in real handy.
Victoria says:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 8:26 am
The Chinese community is a significant voting cohort in both Melbourne and Sydney – in critical seats.
This rubbish wins no one any votes. But it will be blamed on the LNP, even if they did not have a direct hand in it and it will cost them votes.
Seen in Melbourne. Gonna be a fun campaign. https://t.co/FnE1RDCKNn
____________________________________
Trialled in Canberra. I wonder if some low-information ethnic Chinese voters will actually see it as a direction for them to follow.
ItzaDream says:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 8:28 am
Unions.
_________
Biden’s plan to give union made EV’s greater subsidies than Tesla is the source of the dispute. But also thanking the CEO of GM for ‘electrifying the entire auto industry’.
Considering that GM sold only 26 EV’s in the last quarter of 2021 compered to Tesla at 300k.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 7:03 am
7% of people in the ACT, of all places, would want to vote UAP!?! What is the world coming to!?!
”
If it can happen in ACT, it can happen anywhere in Australia.
Scott Morrison says Australia’s emissions record is better than the US, NZ, Canada, Japan and many European countries. Is that correct?
You wouldn’t expect anything different really.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-06/fact-check-scott-morrison-emissions-us-nz-canada-japan-european/100944142
ABC RN Breakfast: BM interview with PK ” we will be having many more of these talks in the next 8 weeks”
Just repeating a few aphorisms because it feels good:
1. The trend is our friend
2. It’s the economy, stupid!
and
3. Morrison should have gone in November 😉
The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments have been terrible for biodiversity.
The relevant ministers? Hunt, Frydenberg, Price and Ley.
Taken as a set, they are easily the most damaging set of environment ministers since Federation.
Is hiding the same as lying?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/06/coalition-accused-of-sitting-on-environment-report-to-avoid-delivering-more-bad-news
>Other than that the question I would have is how the polling account for this: the Teals are only standing in a limited number of seats. But the polls are tallied on a national basis.
People who intend to vote for the Teals would say they are voting for independent or other (or whatever the equivalent option is) to a poll, same as Wilkie/Haines/Sharkie voters.
It would take quite a lot of them to have a meaningful impact on the ‘other’ vote nationwide, and the trend would be confused by UAP only being separately polled recently.
This is a case where seat polls would be more informative.
Murderous dictators stick to each other like shit sticks to a bear:
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1257600.shtml
S
Thanks. The polling for Seselja’s position would, IMO, be a case in the point you are making.
rhwombat:
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 9:52 pm
Mavis: Late to the party, but I think Dio is correct – that combination of tests & timing suggests that you should consider yourself to have COVID despite the negative PCR. You will probably stay relatively asymptomatic and there is not much that you can do for it unless you start to develop breathlessness, in which case get reviewed ASAP. Word of warning – neither the oral antiviral SOTROVIMAB nor the current specific antibody cocktails work very well for the prevalent BA.2 strain. On the other hand, DEXAMETHASONE & hospital care still does.’]
Thanks for your advice. One of the beauties of this site is that there are posters with expertise in a wide range of disciplines.
The consensus is that I’ve probably got C.19 and will accordingly take the usual precautions, though asymptomatic.
7% UAP vote in the ACT is a little higher than I would have guess, but not too surprising.
Firstly, they were the only right wing minor party on offer. If the poll came out putting UAP on 3%, family first on 2% and one nation on 2%, no-one would have batted an eyelid.
Secondly, they are the only party doing paid advertising in the ACT right now. Nothing from Labor, Liberals or Greens. Pocock and Kim have some people at the shops and stuff. As we get into the prepoll and polling day, the gap on paid advertising will close a little and the parties handing out htvs will gain an advantage.
Overall though, that’s great news. Needing 8.83334% from preferences will be worrying Zed. First thing to happen would be Labor candidate elected and another excluded. Zed’s 24.5 to 14.5% lead might close to 25.2 to 16.5. UAP or Kim excluded next, lets assume Kim. Her votes would strongly preference the Greens over zed. Maybe we are now at Zed 26, greens 21.5. UAP would generally go pretty strongly to Zed as a fellow crazy person, although some will follow the htv, some will donkey vote, some exhaust, and some will simply be anti establishment. Maybe zed 29, greens 22.5, donkey vote 1% and exhausted 2%. Then it comes down to Pocock. I could see this going 75% greens, 25% liberals – while pocock is a teal, Zed is about as far from a teal as a liberal can get. Final estimate on these numbers, Zed 32, greens 31.5%. But greens could actually get ahead – they’d probably need 2 out of; small polling error, being in a good donkey vote spot on the left of the paper or next to the UAP, and the UAP directing preferences to them over Zed.
nath @ #67 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:22 am
Bull. Musk has become increasingly Trumpy over the past several years. He’s especially Trumpy when it comes to covid.
It’s more…Biden has a problem with Tesla, for no good reason. He should stop; it’s a bad look, even if Musk is an ass (which he is).
ItzaDream @ #58 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:06 am
The richest person in the world doesn’t understand private enterprise or free speech? Lovely. There’s no way that can end poorly.
ItzaDream @ #NaN Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 5:54 am
An important first step to reestablish our influence with our Pacific neighbours and push back against Chinese moves in the region.
Lifting our foreign aid budget, in the region, to more appropriate levels should also be a no brainer.
BK
Thanks so much
TPOF @ #69 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 8:26 am
Gladys is a liar for saying she couldn’t remember the text exchange – nobody believes that. Morrison is a liar for saying Gladys denied it – he can read, he knows what she said in response.
That’s the problem with being a confirmed bullshit artist. Everything Morrison says, even if it’s 100% truthful, is now met with skepticism. The spin no longer works either – in the past, he would most likely have got a way with spinning Gladys’ response as a denial. Not any more.
a r says:
Bull. Musk has become increasingly Trumpy over the past several years. He’s especially Trumpy when it comes to covid.
________________
Increasingly Trumpy? Any evidence for that?
Pukka at 8.46am
Pardon my ignorance, but who is BM?
Victoria :
There have been another three COVID-19 deaths in Victoria.
There are 331 cases in hospital, with 16 of those in intensive care and four requiring ventilation.
There were 12,150 new cases across the state today.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
NSW :
New South Wales has recorded 15 more COVID-19 deaths.
There are 1,444 cases in hospital, 51 of whom are in intensive care.
There were 24,151 new cases announced across the state today.
“Increasingly Trumpy? Any evidence for that?”
I agree his Trumpy behaviour and inclinations, including absurd claims he makes and doesn’t deliver on predate Trump by some time.
And there’s no way Putin could view such a move as escalatory, perhaps more escalatory than having a no-fly zone imposed over Ukraine, and maybe even as an existential threat to Russia. Nope, no way at all.
“Quick, expand the nuclear arsenal while Russia is still distracted slaughtering civilians in Ukraine!” 🙄
From the Guardian blog:
New Berejiklian texts about Morrison reportedly emerge
New text messages from former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian have emerged, building on former leaks and labelling Scott Morrison “obsessed with petty political pointscoring.”
News.com.au has reported it has received a second screenshot of text messages between Berejiklian and a mystery cabinet minister, in which she says she is “so, so disappointed,” in Morrison:
Thx. I’m just so so disappointed. Lives are at stake today and he is just obsessed with petty political pointscoring. So disappointed and gutted.
The texts are reportedly a continuation of previously reported texts in which Berejiklian calls Morrison a “horrible, horrible person” and the mystery cabinet minister responds by labelling him a “complete psycho”.
Berejiklian has never denied the existence of the text exchange but has merely said she does not recall it.
Lol, my God. Let me reiterate… the UAP vote will not be 7% in the ACT Senate.
It’s Redbridge … they’re routinely suggesting much greater support for UAP and ONP than anyone else.
Election Day Must be called by
21 May 2022 18 April 2022
14 May 2022 11 April 2022
So by this Monday, we shall know the date of the election. The calling of the election would most likely have a short campaign time. Elections do not get called before Thursday.
In fact if we look at the last 5 elections, the dates/days they were called on were:
Thursday 11 April 2019
Saturday 7th May 2016
Sunday 4th August 2013
Saturday 17th July 2010
Sunday 14 October 2007
Does Scott like Thursdays or the number 11?
My bet looking at the weather forecast for Canberra will be for visiting the GG on Sunday.
a r says:
Wednesday, April 6, 2022 at 9:16 am
Britain will work with the US and Australia in developing nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons, after Russia used the deadly high-speed missiles in airstrikes last month during the war in Ukraine.
And there’s no way Putin could view such a move as escalatory, perhaps more escalatory than having a no-fly zone imposed over Ukraine, and maybe even as an existential threat to Russia. Nope, no way at all.
________________
Let’s not match Russian/Chinese weapon development for fear of upsetting Putin. Brilliant!
nath @ #91 Wednesday, April 6th, 2022 – 9:11 am
I’d rather not trawl through the cesspit that is Elon’s twitter feed. But here’s one from 2020 election time:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1262076474565242880
You don’t tweet for people to support Trump’s side while Trump is in the middle of actively seeking reelection if you don’t support Trump.
And you could redo these covid-related comments in Trump’s voice and everyone would believe they came straight from Trump:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHZdAp_Ykug
No, more like, let’s do the actually useful thing and have a no-fly zone if we’re going to openly challenge Russia on weaponry anyways.
And develop the hypersonic nukes in secret, if we really need to have hypersonic nukes, to be announced only once they’re actually built and working.