Tuesday night
The Electoral Commission website is finally publishing two-candidate preferred results, but as ever there remains the South Australian peculiarity that the declaration votes are not being broken down into separate results for pre-polls, postals and absents, so we will have little guidance as to why what’s happening is happening as these results inevitably bounce around over the next week or so. After essentially no progress in the count on Monday, declaration votes started being reported in some seats yesterday.
The ABC rates nine seats as being in varying degrees of doubt, but I’m not inclined to agree with respect to Hammond, where declaration votes can only widen Liberal member Adrian Pederick’s 51.3-48.7 lead over independent Airlie Keen, who seems unlikely to make the final count in any case. That leaves clear results of 26 for Labor, 12 for Liberal and four for independents. Not among the in doubt is one seat I should have mentioned in the previous update: Gibson, where the identification of errors and the allocation of saved informal votes in accordance with registered party tickets on Saturday increased the size of Labor’s lead from 486 to an insurmountable 1055. That leaves:
Dunstan. Early indications are that this is going as I thought it might, with the first batch of declaration votes breaking 924-792 in favour of Steven Marshall, reducing the Labor lead from 143 to 11.
Finniss. Despite 1939 declaration votes breaking 1115-824 in favour of Liberal member David Basham over independent candidate Lou Nicholson on the two-party preferred candidate, it remains clear that he will not close the gap. So the issue remains whether Nicholson will indeed made the final count, or whether it will be a Liberal-Labor contest in which Basham will presumably prevail. The declaration votes so far suggest she won’t make it, as they have reduced her overall primary vote from 23.0% to 21.6% while increasing Labor’s from 23.4% to 23.7%.
Morialta. Liberal member John Gardner seems very unlikely to lose from here, the first batch of declaration votes having increased his margin from 145 to 347.
Unley. Another one that will shortly be off the Liberals’ endangered list if the first declaration votes are any guide: they have broken 680-402 in favour of Liberal member David Pisoni, increasing his lead from 92 to 370.
Waite. Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde needed declaration votes to break perhaps 64-36 in his favour to rein in Catherine Hutchesson’s lead on the two-candidate count – implausible as this seemed, he’s come close on the first batch, which have broken 609-376 his way (so 61.8%). Independent Heather Holmes-Ross nudging her way to the final count on preferences should continue to be rated very unlikely.
Sunday night
The news kept getting worse for the Liberals in today’s counting, thanks to two new two-candidate preference counts in seats where the wrong candidates were picked for the count on the night:
Waite. After conducting a preference count between Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde and independent Heather Holmes-Ross on the night, which made it clear Hyde would lose if Holmes-Ross made the final count, today a new count was conducted between Hyde and Labor candidate Catherine Hutchesson that made it clear he would lose to her too. That seems far the most likely outcome, with primary votes of Labor 27.4%, Liberal 24.5%, 18.9% for Liberal-turned-independent incumbent Sam Duluk and 15.3% for Holmes-Ross. Preferences from the Greens (12.0%) and Animal Justice (1.9%) could theoretically cause either independent to reduce the Liberals to third place and leave Labor and the independent at the final account, but that seems very unlikely. Labor thus looks poised to win the state’s second most affluent seat, which has it has neither won before now, either as Waite or in its previous incarnation as Mitcham going back to 1938.
Flinders. Liberal candidate Sam Telfer has 45.3% of the primary vote here, which in a field of six candidates that includes the Nationals would normally be enough. However, a two-candidate preferred count between Telfer and independent candidate Liz Habermann, which has thus far accounted for 10 out of 27 booths, finds preferences splitting 78-22 in favour of Habermann. According to the ABC, this suggests Habermann is ahead according to a method that matches the 10 booths with their equivalent results from 2018. However, projecting the preference flow so far across the primary votes puts Telfer ahead 51.1-48.9. I would also suggest that postal votes are likely to favour him. Should she fall short, the possibility of Habermann running in Grey at the federal election was canvassed on the ABC’s Insiders this morning.
Dunstan. Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon trailed here 7191 to 7095 at the close on Saturday, but now leads 7376 to 7233. The ABC site explains: “Greens and Family First votes with insufficient preferences that were saved by SA’s unique ticket voting provision have been added today. Both parties lodged tickets flowing to Labor so that has added around 170 votes to Labor’s total.” That leaves him 0.5% behind, but my judgement yesterday that late counting was likely to improve his position by over 1% isn’t affected by this. It remains uncomfortably close for him, though presumably there is a strong chance of him retiring from politics and O’Hanlon getting a second crack at a by-election if she falls short.
Saturday night
Labor went into the election with 19 seats out of 47, had an easy gain in Florey with the departure of independent Frances Bedford, and have made it to a clear majority with five further gains from the Liberals. I count five potential further gains, including Steven Marshall’s seat of Dunstan, though I only reckon them to be ahead in one, and a sixth if they win Waite from a Liberal-turned-independent, which is very hard to call.
The Liberals won 25 seats in 2018, which had reduced to 22 by the election with three members moving to the cross-bench. Two of these three have been re-elected as independents while the third has been defeated – as just noted, it’s not clear whether by Liberal or Labor. If that seat remains with the Liberals and the other close races go their way, they will finish on 17. However, there is one further seat that may yet fall to an independent. Geoff Brock has proved net neutral for the Liberals in that the party gained his old seat of Frome, but have now lost Stuart to him. This leaves three or maybe four independents, or perhaps even five if it’s an independent who gets up in the complex race for Waite.
The display on the ABC site rates the most likely outcome as Labor on 28 seats, when they in fact lead in only 27. This would be the result of a probability-based determination that rates Labor as most likely to get over the line in one of the several seats where it is slightly behind, without any commitment as to which one.
The ABC’s system has booth-matching switched off, so the swings it shows are simply the pre-election margins as compared with the current raw totals. The analysis that follows, by contrast, compares election day booth results with their equivalent from last time, those being the only votes counted as of yet. All we will get today is rechecking and perhaps the reporting of a few straggler booths that didn’t get their two-candidate preferred results in from last night – counting of pre-polls, postals and absent votes, which by my reckoning should account for a bit less than 40% of the total, will begin on Monday. A further complication is that I have consistently used the post-redistribution margins calculated by the Boundaries Commission, which differ from those Antony Green has calculated for the ABC.
Labor gains:
Adelaide: The election day vote was completed at the end of the night, and showed the 0.8% Liberal margin easily accounted for by a 6.6% swing to Labor.
Davenport: The most impressive of Labor’s gains was its first ever win in Davenport, achieved by Erin Thompson with an 11.8% swing against Liberal member Steve Murray, who went into the election with a margin of 8.4%.
Elder: One of the four easy pickings for Labor with margins of less than 2% — precisely so in this case — swung to Labor by 7.5%, with Labor’s Nadia Clancy gaining the seat from Liberal member Carolyn Power.
King: The Liberals’ hope of toughing it out here on the back of Paula Leuthen’s sophomore surge weren’t realised — against a 0.8% margin, Labor’s Rhiannon Pearce scored a 3.9% swing.
Newland: In the tightest of the Liberal marginals, Labor’s Olivia Savvas did it easily with a swing of 5.0% (one booth is yet to report on the two-candidate preferred count, but this won’t matter much). In her bid to move from Florey, which she held for Labor from 1997 to 2017 and as an independent thereafter, Frances Bedford finished a very distant third with 11.9%.
Down to the wire:
Dunstan: Outgoing Premier Steven Marshall leads after counting of election day votes by 7191 to 7095, a margin of 0.3%. I calculate this as a swing of 6.2%, which given his margin of 8.1% suggests he’s likely to prevail. However, that’s the Boundaries Commission’s estimate of the margin — Antony Green only has it at 7.5%.
Gibson: The election day booths swung 10.7% to Labor, exceeding a Liberal margin of 9.9%, but not by so much that you’d call it.
Morialta: Outgoing Education Minister John Gardner had a 9.9% margin going in according to the Boundaries Commission, but only 9.4% according to Antony Green. On the election day vote he copped a swing of 8.6%.
Unley: This has been a pretty safe Liberal seat since 1993, and while David Pisoni looks like retaining it, he suffered a scare in the form of a 9.8% swing to Labor against a margin of 11.2%.
Waite: This one is very hard to read: the two-candidate preferred count has independent Heather Holmes-Ross leading Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde by 55.3% to 44.7%, but this will only apply if Holmes-Ross makes the final count and she’s actually running fourth. It’s theoretically possible that preferences from the Greens (12.0%) and Animal Justice (1.9%) could help her close the 18.9% to 15.3% gap against Liberal-turned-indepenent member Sam Duluk, and that Duluk’s preferences could then push her ahead of Hyde, although a lot of Duluk’s preferences will presumably go straight to Hyde. In that case, it comes down to a race between Hyde and Labor candidate Catherine Hutchesson that could go either way, with the result depending on the preferences of the nearly 50% of voters who voted for neither, about which we can only speculate.
Notable contests involving independents:
Stuart: I personally didn’t like Geoff Brock’s chances against Deputy Premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan, to which he moved after his home base of Port Pirie was transferred to the electorate from his existing seat of Frome. So it was a very substantial surprise that he romped home with 65.9% of the vote on the two-candidate preferred count at the end of the night, albeit that postal votes will undoubtedly rein that in a fair bit.
Kavel: Liberal-turned-independent Dan Cregan scored a thumping win with a majority on the primary vote.
Narungga: Another Liberal-turned-independent, Fraser Ellis, has comfortably retained his seat ahead of Liberal candidate Tom Michael with 58.9% on ECSA’s two-candidate preferred count, from primary votes of 32.4% for Ellis, 28.1% for Michael and 20.2% for Labor.
Finniss: ECSA conducted a count between Liberal member David Basham and independent candidate Lou Nicholson in which Nicholson polled 5590 of the election day votes (54.7%) and Basham polled 4625 (45.3%). However, this only applies if Nicholson makes the final preference count, which would seem to be touch and go — Basham is on 36.9%, Labor’s Amy Hueppauff is on 23.5% and Nicholson is on 22.9%, so Nicholson has a gap to close on preferences. Otherwise the final count will be Basham versus Hueppauff, in which case Basham should win fairly comfortably.
Florey: Worth noting as a Labor gain, but with independent Frances Bedford vacating the seat for an unsuccessful run in Newland, this was a mere formality.
Frome: Similarly, this predictably returned to the Liberals with Geoff Brock’s move to Stuart,
Finally, a bit over half of the count for the Legislative Council has been conducted, and the most likely result looks like being five seats for Labor, four for the Liberals and one each for the Greens and One Nation, the latter being in line for their first ever seat in the South Australian parliament. Taken together with the ongoing members elected in 2018, this will mean a chamber of nine Labor members, eight Liberals, two Greens, two from SA-Best and one from One Nation.
Q: Gibson goes Labor!
Yay…my seat goes to a progressive woman, from a stale old footy commentator.
The Lib Member Wingard was a sad figure campaigning outside Woolworths last week, being roundly ignored and avoided!
Heysen inching closer. It is hard to comprehend this in Downer/Redmond country. Two very different candidates. Teague has a long history in the Hills. Nice chap, well liked, mostly harmless and active in the community. Voogt, I know not. If you placed the two candidates pics and CVs next to each other the differences are many and sharp.
I am going to suggest the early votes (prepoll and postal) will heavily favour Teague in Heysen. The well to do in the Hills arent keen on democracy sandwiches, nor rubbing shoulders with the unwashed and unpredictable.
14% swing to Labor in Badcoe! Margin now 18.8%. One of those seats that should be marginal but now isn’t. That looks like the biggest swing in any standard ALP/Lib seat.
I do wonder just how more LNP the pre- and postals will actually be… the postals should be, but pre-polls?
Bop, matched by the incredible Leon Bignell in Mawson, who won by about 120 votes last time, and is now on a 14% margin!
jt1983 @ #105 Sunday, March 20th, 2022 – 4:38 pm
I reckon it will vary between electorates. There are now a lot of reasons (legitimately and not so) people use to prepoll and postal.
Personally, I dont like it. People should be encouraged to attend on the day. Booth voting is a commons and we have precious few of them left.
Woah, big jump just then in Teagues 2PP. A correction?
Rod: yep, and also Tony Piccolo in Light, who now has a margin over 20% in a seat the Libs won in 2002.
Davenport, Gibson, Waite and Unley are the other seats with swings over 10%. Gibson is naturally marginal (it just had a big swing to the Libs in 2018), but the other three have never been won by Labor. Now two of them are gone, and even Unley (second safest Lib seat in Adelaide before yesterday) is going down to the wire. Bragg is probably the only safe Lib seat left in Adelaide.
There’s some big swings in Adelaide, but it’s kinda all over the place. Colton and Hartley stick out as Lib seats which held out, and Playford (rock solid safe Labor) actually swung to the Libs.
SK – we are seeing that ECSA beats to a different drum. 2PP votes are being updated and reconciled across the course of today. How the changes are picked up by the ABC is a bit of a mystery.
For most seats, this now means the number of 2PP votes tallies with the number of formal votes cast yesterday at polling booths
There have been some fairly significant shifts as a result of this process eg, Dunstan has shifted from Lib ahead (Marshall) to Labor now leading (O’Hanlon).
As for the remaining 40-50% of total votes per seat that remain to be counted (postals and pre-polls), I think all bets are off, and we could see some surprises going both ways.
I agree entirely with the proposition that more measures should be taken to encourage people to vote on election day – rather than via pre-polls and postals.
Bird of paradox, Labor men Gil Langley and Kym Mayes held Unley
for yonks.
A couple of other seats where the revised 2PP spells bad news for the Libs are Finniss and Flinders – in both seats, the Independents are well ahead, although there is arguably a greater chance that independents will not do as well as major party candidates with pre-polls and postals due to fewer campaign resources
Bird of paradox, Labor men Gil Langley and Kym Mayes held Unley
for yonks.
______
I remember turning up to Gil Langley’s house with my dad, a long time SA cricket teammate, to celebrate with him the morning after the election. Gil did like to celebrate.
TT: Ahh, right you are. Not in the last 30 years, then.
Ousider: Flinders? That’s currently Lib 45.3% Ind 28.2% – ABC estimates a 2cp of 55% for the Libs. It could be doable (Habermann is well ahead of Labor, unlike Nicholson in Finniss), but 17% is a big gap to make up.
Bird of Paradox, the Badcoe result is interesting. I live in the electorate, there were a couple of very nasty and quite unfair leaflets dropped in the letter box that got very personal against the sitting member. It just looked grubby and clearly had the opposite impact on voters. Future candidates should take note and consider similar tactics at their peril.
Sorry BOP. I was going off ECSA, but can see on a closer look that the numbers reflected in their 2PP are incomplete. Ignore what I said about Flinders, at least for now (!)
Well, here we go:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2022/guide/flin
ABC just revised that 2pp down to 51.1% Lib in Flinders. Here’s Antony’s update:
The Libs are getting pantsed here. Mt Gambier, Stuart, Kavel, Narungga. Flinders, Finniss, maybe even Waite. Seven independents?
Habermann winning Flinders would be amazing. There could be some federal indie surprises in SA come May.
Will the SA lower house Liberals be able to field a netball team?
Liz Habermann sits in front of me at the footy (when they make it over from Cummins) and is a massive Port Adelaide fan. Lovely family.
There was an incredibly emotional story about their son Rhys on 7:30 a while back:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-29/rhys-habermann-and-voluntary-euthanasia/100062384
Sykes, yeah, amazing story. From running a bakery to maybe, almost, knocking off a Liberal with a 26% margin (albeit a retiring MP margin). Not only that, an advocate for VAD – legislation that, along with abortion, is tearing the Liberals apart.
I usually sit next to Port supporters at the footy. I am finding it less onerous each time.
If the South Australian Greens had such a big leap, where are the 1.2% Greens national losses concentrated?
In Western Australia they seem to have gone backwards big time.
But where else?
Time to join the power surge SK?
Beorwar:
The swing back to the Greens should be seen in the context of their poor 2018 result, where SA Best sucked up a lot of the “fuck the majors” protest vote. That wasn’t a factor in the federal election the following year, where the Greens polled 9.61% in SA, very similar to how they did in yesterday’s state election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_South_Australian_state_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2019_Australian_federal_election_(House_of_Representatives)
Hammond’s gone back to being a Lib/Ind count on the ABC – Lib 2cp of just 50.1%. Airlie Keen is 5% behind Labor in third, with 20% worth of One Nation / Green / FF / Nats to be thrown. Not impossible, I guess…
I doubt this one will come off, but just the fact it’s on the list of possibilities is amazing. EIGHT independents?!
More from Antony Green’s blog (again on Waite)
6:15pm – “the Labor-Liberal re-throw of preferences is complete in Waite and shows Labor well ahead of 55.5%, about the same figure achieved by Heather Homes-Ross on Saturday night. So whoever finishes in the final race against Liberal candidate Alexander Hyde will end up defeating. The only alternative outcome is if pre-poll and postals allowed Sam Duluk to pull ahead of Hyde, but that seems unlikely and may not change the outcome anyway.”
So, whatever happens it seems the Lib (who was until recently a staffer for the obnoxious Nicole Flint) cannot win!
BW,
1. State votes v Feds.
2. The Teals! The Teals!
3. Go straight to Labor. Do not see Greens!
Spence @ #123 Sunday, March 20th, 2022 – 7:23 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1BoXp4ixbQ
[Bird of Mofo says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 5:05 pm
14% swing to Labor in Badcoe! Margin now 18.8%.]
Of course there was a swing there! That’s where I worked!
10% swing to Labor *on the primary vote* in my booth.
SK. Always good to have a local team as well as Swans?
A heartfelt Facebook post tonight from Independent Dan Cregan about his win in Kavel, securing the new hospital for Mount Barker etc and background information on his ‘campaign manager’ (a black Labrador named Ted):
https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=132862092600415&set=a.114114577808500
Interesting point raised on Twitter just now, so I thought I’d take a closer look.
I know the final figures haven’t been tabulated, but as it stands right now, of the 10 safest Labor seats in SA, 7 are held by men – all the 7 safest.
Of the 10 most marginal, 9 are held by women – all the 9 most marginal.
While at this point I think we need to acknowledge the amazing work of Tony Piccolo and Leon Bignell in turning marginal seats into much safer seats (often aided by boundary changes), very safe seats are where it’s at if you want longevity in politics.
Maybe it’s the socialist in me, but it seems grossly unfair that one member has to spend their entire 4 year term slogging their guts out in order to get re-elected, while another can sit on their arse for 4 years, knowing their electorate will vote for anyone wearing the right colours, and yet they get paid exactly the same amount of money.
Surely if these results prove anything it’s that there are tons of hugely talented women in Labor – so why aren’t they getting the safe seats when they come up?
For example, when Spence was up for grabs, they had an immensely accomplished, intelligent and keen LOCAL woman they could have preselected. Instead, they parachuted a bloke in. When Playford was up for grabs, there were a number of LOCAL women with profiles in the community that they could have preselected. Instead, they parachuted in a guy who was living in the NT and who was from the Adelaide Hills anyway.
Until men and women are EQUALLY given both the easy seats and the hard seats, I don’t think Labor is in a position to get smug about equal representation. At this election they were lucky, but if the swing hadn’t been on then the issue would instead have been about why the number of women in caucus is still falling short of where it’s supposed to be by now.
Food for thought.
Chinda63 says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 9:41 pm
I entirely agree.
Enjoyed the election coverage and all the amazing comments as always! I’ll re-post part of what I had on the Tallyroom
…I had Finniss as one of my seats to watch, but didn’t expect such a strong challenge from the IND …with… Heysen my other interesting one to watch and seeing the GRN vote at 21.6% I was not disappointed. This is one seat I can see the Greens jumping ALP in future to claim the seat as the ALP vote is below 30% (akin to Maiwar, et al.) That’s mainly due to this seat having a preference for Minor Parties getting into the 2CP.
For the Greens, the 3-way contests didn’t seem to give them too much of a boost, with most below 15% except for some good performances in West Torrens of 17.4% and Unley with 20.1%! I don’t see WT or Unley that high a vote with more possible competition in future but SA-Best lightning only strikes once.
A quick call of the board (totals will change with postals/pre-polls being added) of the best seats for the other parties:
-Animal Justice 4.1% in Croydon (Note: 4-way contest)[4.0% in Port Adelaide]
-Real Change SA 1.5% in Adelaide.
-Aust Family Party 4% in King (With FFP present)
-Nationals 5.6% in Chaffey (With PHON present)
-One Nation 11.3% in Frome [10.6% in Chaffey] (With NAT present in both)
-Family First Party 11.6% in Ramsay [10.6% in Reynell]
FFP didn’t do too badly actually for a resurrection with 5 seats next in the 7.5-8% range.
It doesn’t seem like FFP and AFP running in same seats had that much affect on each other. AFP scored lowly in Adelaide with no FFP, while no AFP in Elizabeth had FFP at 7.8%. Again, haven’t got all numbers so would be good to take a closer look to see any correlation. With 4-way contests, FFP in Ramsay was a surprise to outpoll the Greens, Reynell the other good seat for FFP was a 4-way contest as well.
Likewise, having PHON and NAT present in same seats didn’t really seem to affect the vote of the other.
I don’t expect Advance SA, Aust Family Party and Real Change SA to last beyond this year as they all seem to be pet project parties around one person (Darley, Day, Pallaras). On a side note, didn’t realise how much good friends Bedford and the Days were. As for the Nationals… who knows. I can see them targeting a couple of rural seats like they used to (Chaffey, Mackillop and Schubert, maybe Hammond although that result was rough). No idea why they ran in Finniss and Narungga, and can’t really see them running in Flinders or Frome again.
Final Honorable Mention – Giles SA Best 10.8.% just loosing over half, did well to hold onto that much!
“The swing back to the Greens should be seen in the context”
***
It should be seen for what it is – the SA Greens’ best result in a state election ever. A swing back and then some. It should also be seen in the context of the continuing positive results for the Greens in other recent Australian elections (see ACT and QLD) and in the context of the Green Wave that is sweeping the globe.
There is no doubt that the SA Greens have been hampered in the past by the Xenophon factor though. While we have unquestionably been the third force everywhere else for quite some time, since the demise of the Aus Dems, it was questionable in SA due to NXT/SAB. That is no longer the case.
Firefox says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 10:21 pm
“The swing back to the Greens should be seen in the context”
***
It should be seen for what it is
…yes…it should be seen for exactly what it is….an outpost of Labor-phobia, a puddle of sanctimony tipped out by self-indulging cadet reactionaries. .
God the anti-Green ranting is boring. Like listening to someone with dementia ranting at the wall. If your position is that a minor party with the support of around 1.5M Australians is fundamentally illegitimate, your understanding of politics is so poor that you really shouldn’t be posting on this site.
Funny how we never seem to get pages and pages of this crap about the real illegitimate minor party, the Nationals. Sad old Labor right types more obsessed with fighting those broadly aligned with them rather than the real enemy.
“Patrick Bateman says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 11:31 pm
Sad old Labor right types more obsessed with fighting those broadly aligned with them rather than the real enemy.”
It’s strange that you don’t seem to have noticed that the same applies to the Greens: more obsessed with fighting those broadly aligned with them rather than the real enemy.
In any event…. just Vote your local Coalition party LAST! If we all do so, the rest is totally irrelevant.
Alpo, this thread like so many others has a couple of Greens people being justifiably chuffed that their party has done better than last SA election, followed by the predictable snarling and screeching I refer to above. Perhaps William could just put something on the sidebar that says “yes we know you irrationally hate the Greens” and then all such posters could agree to shut up about it.
Firefox:
“and in the context of the Green Wave that is sweeping the globe”…
Calm down Firefox, there is no Green Wave (referring to Green political parties) sweeping the globe. What there is is an Environmental Sustainability wave that affects all Progressive parties (not just the Greens) and even some Conservative voters. With regard to the result of the Greens in SA, their primary vote so far is 9.6% and zero MPs. Now, note that 9.6% aligns with the overall national Greens performance at the last federal election: 10.4%. That’s down from their best performance ever nationally at the 2010 federal election: 13.1% (Senate vote).
In any event, let’s just stay focused and keep voting our local Coalition party last, shall we?….
“yes we know you irrationally hate the Greens”
Patrick, some people irrationally hate the ALP too. In the end what matters is our vote and anybody defining him/herself as a Progressive has the duty to put their local Coalition party last. Any self-defined “progressive” who votes the ALP or the Greens below their local Coalition party is just a fake progressive.
Patrick Bateman says:
Sunday, March 20, 2022 at 11:54 pm
My description of the Greens is absolutely correct. Absolutely. The day they cease campaigning against Labor is the day I will change my characterisation of them. They are an obstacle to reformist action. The sooner they evaporate as a political force the better off will be this country.
Can we please spare readers who are following this thread because they’re interested in the SA election count the 7000th reiteration of the Labor-Greens flame war.
“Labor-Greens flame war”…
Hi William,
Don’t worry, in the end there is no real Labor-Greens war, as amply demonstrated by the results of the SA state election:
ALP 2PP so far, as predicted by Antony Green: Labor 55.2%
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-south-australian-election-result/
Primary votes so far:
ALP……….. 40.4%
Greens…….9.6%
So, just like two brothers, ALP and Greens may occasionally differ in our opinions, but we all celebrate as a family at Christmas time…. 🙂
Q: I don’t think Labor is in a position to get smug about equal representation.
SA Labor Govt is on track to have a majority women members, however you spin it….they have every right to be smug and proud.
Of course the Liberals in WA have equal representation.
Spiers doing the radio rounds this morning. I cant stand him. Is it wrong to hope Marshall wins Dunstan and stays on and contests and wins the leadership – or at least ads to the vote for someone like Chapman.
Spiers actually said ‘this was a covid election when we dont have covid anymore’. Oh my, when his brain kicked in to what he said, his backtracking was fast a furious.
William, it’s not Cressida O’Halloran it’s Toyota Cressida O’Hanlon.
See here:
https://www.carsales.com.au/cars/toyota/cressida/
And here:
https://www.petermalinauskas.com.au/team/cressida-ohanlon
[Spiers doing the radio rounds this morning. I cant stand him. Is it wrong to hope Marshall wins Dunstan and stays on and contests and wins the leadership – or at least ads to the vote for someone like Chapman.]
He’s already announced he will resign the leadership. Even if he wins Dunstan he will leave parliament within 6 months or so. Remember, for S.A. Liberals politics is a hobby, it’s not a calling.
Vicki Corruption will run for leader because she can’t help herself, but I think this is a perfect time for the S.A. Libs to move on to a new generation of losers.
William. Do you disagree with Anthony that Gibson is a Labor gain?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-20/sa-election-liberal-minister-corey-wingard-set-to-lose-seat/100925276?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
“The South Australian state election has claimed another high-profile Liberal scalp, with the ABC projecting former transport minister Corey Wingard has been defeated by Labor challenger Sarah Andrews.
Key points:
Mr Wingard has suffered a swing of more than 13 per cent against him
Mr Wingard, who was first elected in 2014, won the seat of Gibson in Adelaide’s southern suburbs in 2018 on a margin of 10 per cent.
William Bowe @ #143 Monday, March 21st, 2022 – 12:54 am
Correct me if my memory of Uni maths is wrong, but in a Least Squares computation the iterations require change and when such change stops or becomes miniscule the solution has been achieved. If it bounces around endlessly then your input parameters are dodgy. The old… Rubbish In, Rubbish Out.