The first bit of poll news to relate involves YouGov’s rather remarkable result ahead of Saturday’s South Australian state election, which you can read about in the post below. The bad polling news for the conservative side of politics doesn’t end there:
• The West Australian today has seat polls from the Liberals’ four most marginal seats in Western Australia, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample size of 750. Given the fairly small sample size, it would only seem safe to pool the results and tally up the overall swings. Labor holds a lead across the four seats of 54-46 in the poll compared with a post-redistribution average of 56.1-43.9, suggesting Labor would comfortably win Swan (margin 3.3%), Pearce (5.5%) and Hasluck (5.9%), and be in the hunt for Tangney (9.8%). The average primary votes in the poll are Liberal 35.9% (down 10.2%), Labor 42.4% (up 11.8%), Greens 6.5% (down 4.4%), One Nation 4.0% (down 0.5%) and United Australia Party 3.2%. The West Australian’s report does break down the numbers, which for what they’re worth have it at 50-50 in Tangney, with Labor leading 52-48 in Hasluck, 55-45 in Pearce and 59-41 in Swan. Primary votes are also included in the report, if you can access it.
• The West Australian also reported yesterday that a poll commissioned by the Greens in Western Australia and conducted by the Online Research Unit recorded Labor on 42% (up 12.2% on the 2019 election result), the Coalition on 33% (down 12.2%), the Greens on 11% (down 0.6%) and the United Australia Party on 1% (down 1.0%) independents on 9%, leaving 4% to be accounted for by either minor parties or an undecided component. It also had Senate results of Labor 39% (up 11.4%), Coalition 33% (down 9.3%), Greens 12% (down 0.2%), the United Australia Party on 2% (up 0.2%) and independents 11%, leaving 3% unaccounted for. A sample size and field work dates were not provided.
• The Australian yesterday had further results from the weekend Newspoll featuring an occasional exercise measuring respondents’ assessments of the leaders’ characteristics. I tend not to get too excited about these as they generally march in lock-step with the leaders’ overall approval ratings, although there would be some value in assessing the balance of the various results for different leaders over the long term, which is something I never quite find time to do. The latest results find Scott Morrison with a stronger result than Anthony Albanese on “experienced”, which is fairly typical for the incumbent, but losing his advantage on “decisive and strong”, falling further behind on “in touch with the voters” and “likeable”, and continuing to have a problem on “arrogant”.
BB,
One of the criticisms of Rudd was that the Government was totally clogged up by his centralised control of the processes of Government and he just had an enormous in tray.
Morrison is similar. But, he will announce things rather than actually enact them. So, we get expectations raised, but no delivery of services.
”
In a stunning rebuke to the Prime Minister’s authority, a Supreme Court challenge has been launched against his attempt to lead a takeover of the New South Wales Liberals and secure preselections for three MPs.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/03/15/morrison-court-takeover-challenge/
”
But but but…..
“I am the Prime Minister “. 🙂
”
Simon Jackson writes that America is more divided than at any time since civil war and he says this has serious potential ramifications for Australia.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/america-more-divided-than-at-any-time-since-civil-war/news-story/14c16212119c0cecf7feb25ae517e7b8
”
“Doh”.
But we still sign up to AUKUS deal!!!
Ven
It really is time the media, on a daily basis with facts and statistics, called out the lies and myths about the Coalition being better economic managers. It’s simply untrue and voters deserve better from the fourth estate. Failure to do this is simply aiding and abetting the Coalition’s lies.
Shellbell @ #38 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 9:24 am
So in deciding whether the minister has a duty of care to young people, it is the definition of “young people” that is the key issue?
Is it any wonder so many people think the law is an ass?
GG
“I am expecting a cash splash as a last minute bribe to the voters. But voters seem sceptical and cynical about anything Morrison and his Government are doing atm. So, I am not sure it will work.”
History has taught me never to underestimate the greed of the average individual over the broader good. Meaningless tax cuts have proven highly successful over the past and likely will again. I wonder if there are well-targeted cuts the ALP might use to achieve a similar though more directed impact.
”
“Is battling back-to-back disasters distracting us from fighting the climate crisis?”, asks Jeff Sparrow.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/15/is-battling-back-to-back-disasters-distracting-us-from-fighting-the-climate-crisis
”
It is back-to-back-to-back (should I add more back tos?)
What do think? Ofcourse it distracted us. When the governments ( Federal and State) did not plan for such eventuality, these things do happen especially when 2 of the 3 disasters (some say all 3) are due to Climate crisis.
[So in deciding whether the minister has a duty of care to young people, it is the definition of “young people” that is the key issue?] No
It is obviously a legislative responsibility to determine the extent to which environmental assessments must factor in the impact of climate change.
“Is it any wonder so many people think the law is an ass?”
It’s the job of the people to elect a Parliament that will address climate change, not for the courts to determine through a law suit.
The power of tax cuts alone rarely make huge differences, again, sorry – it’s a broken record from me – it’s about the meta.
Tax cuts usually benefit broader economic messages. It worked in 2019 because the CORE message of the 2019 campaign was ‘we’re doing tax cuts while also delivering a surplus and Shorten is promising risky tax reforms jeopardising all of that’ – a Morrison tax cut in the face of generational deficits just becomes a talking point.
Yet again – the idea of the framing of a re-election campaign SO unclear this close to an election is bordering on malpractice. We know it’ll be about national security and the economy… but what’s the actual message? What’s the argument against Albo?
Cronus,
With a trillion dollar debt to manage, inflation on the rise, interest rates probably rising as soon as the Election is finished and a massive spend required on infrastructure and housing, whatever is promised either won’t be delivered or will be taken back as soon as the Election is out of the way.
Every poll I see show the voters turning away in droves from this Government and I can’t see that changing in the near future.
Posted this in the SA thread, but relevant here as well i think. 🙂
“So what’s going on here? Are we seeing the LNP losing ground everywhere in Australia? Recent polls have shown both the Tasmanian and NSW LNP governments, which formerly had massive polling leads, now being back to pretty much 50/50. ”
Could be a general shift agin the LNP across Oz. The SA result will be a significant one as its coming soooooo close to a Federal election the result, whatever it is, just cant be detached from that. Its now way too late for the Federal Libs to replace Morriscum regardless of the SA result. But, i am not going to rule out him wanting to spend more time with his family anf Josh FrythePlanet getting the job of fronting for them.
Cronus @ #54 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 10:05 am
Yes, and actually, it really is *way past* time, but it’s not going to happen. If it were it would have by now. Maybe there’s the remote possibility that Mordor swallows the bitter reality pill, and changes horses. But like America, I think he/they will settle to provoke division and stoke the fires of the rabid right.
Meanwhile, it’s up to Labor to belabour the point.
Although he is touted as Morrison’s apprentice, the member for Tangney Ben Morton has a pretty low profile.
As Minister for State he is rarely if ever asked a question in the house and doesn’t get to announce much.
He most recent time in the spotlight came with the failed attempt to make voters produce ID at the polling place.
His face is on every bus stop around my suburb and he has been given a platform in The West Australian in recent months with regular articles pushing the Liberal philosophy. And campaigning for the abandoned Roe Freeway extension which was still Liberal policy at the WA Poll last March despite the fact they had lost most of the seats in the area affected four years earlier.
But I was struck the other week when a brochure lobbed in my mailbox headed “Introducing Ben Morton”.
Introducing? He’s been the member for six years! He’s Morrison’s right hand!
Maybe he agrees with me he has a recognition problem.
A lot people in the inner southern suburbs that make up Tangney voted Labor for the first time in their lives in the WA election last year.
The polling today suggests they might do it again.
Ah, “The Narrowing”.
Second on the list of Morrison’s prayerful requests.
Obviously , “The Rapture” comes first.
However, it is quite possible that “The Awakening ” may preclude both of them.
ltep @ #59 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 9:15 am
It’s both. If the people elected a Parliament that wanted to throw all of Australia’s coastal houses into the ocean, you hope the courts would have something to say on the matter. It’s not really any different than if the elected Parliament wants to accomplish that same end just more slowly by not taking steps to consider and mitigate against climate change.
The courts have a role to play in keeping all of us safe from the actions of an overzealous and/or incompetent Parliament, independently of what that Parliament was elected to do and whether it’s trying to do it quickly or slowly.
Ven
“Simon Jackson writes that America is more divided than at any time since civil war and he says this has serious potential ramifications for Australia.”
This is one of the many reasons why I would prefer Australia goes with the British or French submarine option if Labor is in office. I think the political risks are less, and being closer in size, we can better maintain our sovereignty than if we were dependent on the USA.
Gettysburg1863
I am hanging out for the Great Unhingement.
Utting is an excellent researcher. I think he has a better fix on things than most. His results are grounds for encouragement. If the swing is as described then Moore, Canning and Forrest are also vulnerable…areas where Labor did very well last year. The swings required for Labor to win are large, but if Tangney is vulnerable, so are they.
If covid is a determining factor in WA, the Liberals should also worry about Durack. WA Labor kept the doors open in the resources sector right thru 2020 and 2021. The workers in that sector will have very little respect now for the Liberals….so could be a sleeper.
I’m trying to think of the last time a Prime Minister was so popular their presence on a State election campaign was seen as an asset to exploit rather than an obligation to be met to avoid the awkward “why aren’t you campaigning for X?” questions.
The people chose to elect a coalition of parties that clearly favoured climate inaction for three straight elections. It wasn’t ambiguous as to what the Government at each of those elections intended to do.
Policy action is a job for the Executive Government, to be enacted through the Parliament. If the Executive or Parliament is ‘incompetent’ in addressing something, it is the job of the people, at an election, to resolve it. That is, unless the Executive or Parliament did something unlawfully, at which point a court should intervene.
It might be different if we had an entrenched bill of rights, but we do not.
“This is one of the many reasons why I would prefer Australia goes with the British or French submarine option if Labor is in office. I think the political risks are less, and being closer in size, we can better maintain our sovereignty than if we were dependent on the USA.”
careful Socrates. “Some people” might think that those sentiments are tantamount to treason.
Of course, it’s not just America that is facing an existential domestic political crisis. have you had a gander at Little Britain recently?
It’s the role of the Executive and the Legislature to make law, not the
judiciary lest it will be accused of activism – Mabo, Wik notwithstanding. If the electorate wants the law to protect a certain cohort from the effects of GM, it should express same via the ballot box.
WA’s only coal mines at Collie in the south-west are on life support as the power stations they supply reach the end of their useful lives so Morrison is splashing cash today at lithium and similar metal miners, The Guardian reports.
You know, for making batteries for EVs and such.
The EVs whose introduction was going to end the weekend.
The irony.
NSW :
The state has recorded five more COVID-related deaths.
There are 1,016 people in hospital with the virus, 36 of those in ICU.
The state recorded 30,402 new cases.
New South Wales Health says the high number of new cases is partly due to a data processing issue.
It says about 10,000 cases registered with Service New South Wales between Sunday and Monday, are included in today’s numbers.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Victoria :
Another eight people have died with COVID in Victoria.
There are 201 people in hospital, 24 in ICU and six people are ventilated.
There were another 9,426 cases recorded, with 42,250 active infections in the state.
ltep @ #59 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 10:15 am
The court was asked to determine if the minister had a “duty of care to protect young people” when determining policy. Not to determine the merits or otherwise of any particular policy.
The answer was “no”. The minister has no duty of care to protect “young people”.
Would the decision have been different if the submission had not used the term “young people”?
If so, why?
Griff
Thanks. That is basically why we still wear masks in public. If you have a high risk of cognitive impairment why not reduce the risk and/or delay the risk being realized?
The measured decline in Green support in WA is a corollary of the increase in the Labor PV. Hopefully this will be reproduced in the election, and become more pronounced by the time people vote. The evaporation of voter support for the Greens would hopefully preface its subsequent self-dissolution.
The Greens have accomplished absolutely nothing for Western Australia. If It’s Time for change in Australia then time is also up for these ratbags.
On another note, I wonder if there’s any polling for Curtin…and whether or not Chaney might roll the sitting member. She must have a very good chance.
Morrison is looking more and more like the slowest wildebeest in the pack, as Richard Marles said.
Can we anticipate Dutton or Frydenberg making the timely lion attack?
I posted something similar before:
I think Australia should persue closer economic and military relations with countries such as Japan, South Korea, France, NZ, Germany, Canada UK, The Scandinavian countries, Holland, Italy etc….ie strong democracies, that are NOT superpowers and NOT oil barrons…..it could be framed as such but is also as an insurance policy against an authoritarian fundamentalist USA, an Oligarchical Russia, and communist China
Ageing I know, but loved the Mandy Rice-Davies reference.
Paul Karp
@Paul_Karp
·
53m
#breaking Bruce Lehrmann’s lawyers have confirmed they have instructions to seek a PERMANENT STAY in the crown prosecution for the alleged rape of Brittany Higgins (which he denies). #auspol
A question. Would political parties deliberately release data that appears to show they are in trouble in an attempt lure errant protest voters back to them? I.e. an attempt to convince protest voters that there vote for them is vital to the party to retain the seat? Has there been any research done?
ltepsays:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 10:15 am
“Is it any wonder so many people think the law is an ass?”
It’s the job of the people to elect a Parliament that will address climate change, not for the courts to determine through a law suit.
………………………………………………..
Your answer is not entirely satisfactory.
The Parliament can, if it chooses, legislate to ensure that a Minister’s decision complies with an enforceable duty of care. So, for example, a section of the EPBC Act could require that the Minister in exercising any discretion under the Act was obliged to take into account x, y and z matters.
The real problem with the case (Bromberg’s decision), however the legislation might have been written was the third point raised by Allsop that:
“the lack of control over the harm (as distinct from over the tiny contribution to the overall risk of damage from climate change), a lack of special vulnerability in the legal sense, the indeterminacy of liability and the lack of proportionality between the tiny increase in risk and lack of control and liability for all damage by heatwaves, bushfires and rising sea levels to all Australians under the age of 18, ongoing into the future, mean that the duty in tort should not be imposed.”
If that sentence sounds like gobbledygook ask yourself these questions:
How do you determine the loss and damage NOW resulting from the granting of an extension to the coal mine?
Who do you determine should be paid the compensation (which is the point of all tortious remedies) in anticipation of future loss and damage?
Neither of these questions could be sensibly answered. A court awarding damages would be compensating some citizens (and potentially non-citizens) out of the pockets of all taxpayers.
The redistribution of wealth associated with such an award would be so obviously arbitrary as to call into question the authority of the courts. Lots of people take to thinking the law is an ass, usually through ignorance. Judges historically have been very aware of the need to protect the reputation of the courts, and the best way is to avoid as far as possible arbitrary interference with the lives of citizens – and indeed to be a bulwark against arbitrary Government interference.
Bb
IMO, we should pursue a strongly-armed neutral policy with no military ties to anybody. The key to the policy is that we don’t go to war with anyone and if anyone starts a war with us they will pay very heavily for the pleasure.
This approach would have saved us from 8 out of the 9 wars we have been in since Federation – and possibly the 9th as well.
It would have meant that all the military equipment we had ever purchased would have achieved its primary objective: that it was never used.
I doubt that we have the national courage to take this course of action. Two centuries of clutching at apron strings are not a good foundation.
I think the last time the Commonwealth had a duty imposed on it, which involved a perceived expansion of the law, was to waterside workers who were unattached to any employer (the hungry mile) and were removing busted hessian bags full of Wittenoom blue asbestos or South African asbestos of ships.
The duty could be imposed because the Cth had agencies overseeing the work.
I note that NSW has had a hospitalization rate almost 5 times that of Victoria – death rate and ICU rate have been similar for the 2 locations.
It’s the one major outlier between the 2 states numbers, anybody got any idea why?
That will be a 12 month or more delay for the Lehrmann trial if he loses on the permanent stay (which he should).
We do need to be putting distance between ourselves and the USA as American democracy collapses in front of our eyes.
And yet we keep getting Australian politicians – including Labor politicians – deliberately tying us tighter and tighter to a USA that can no longer be considered a reliable partner in geopolitics.
I can only hope that an Albanese government would chart a course involving much more engagement with the broader international community. AUKUS needs to be quietly (or perhaps not so quietly) smothered or made irrelevant.
AE
“careful Socrates. “Some people” might think that those sentiments are tantamount to treason.”
Given the nature of the current Federal government I will wear that label with pride. I suspect I will find myself in some good company.
I agree with you on Boris, but I do not see the underlying nature of British (or French) civil society to be as split and divided as USA is.
If the Greens attract 5-6% of the vote for the Senate and Labor approaches 42%, then Green prefs would probably help elect a Labor Senator. Will the Greens pref Labor? They try to avoid doing that. Would it make a difference?
It’s looking like 3/3 for the Senate….maybe there’s an outside chance of 4/2….but that would be an extraordinary result.
If Labor can collect seats in the Senate…take seats from all the Reactionary outfits…Greens, LRP, ON….then life would be very much better for a new Government. Hopefully voters will see it that way.
”
Bushfire Billsays:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 9:46 am
Reading Jack Waterford’s article, it could be fairly paraphrased ………………
……………….
…………They effect an air of being curtly and dismissively in charge, not suffering fools gladly – ie. anyone else with an idea or a query… journalists, experts, opposition MPs etc. – as if anybody who questions their decisions or their thinking is mentally retarded.
”
BB
One of Morrison favourite response is “I don’t accept the premise of your question”.
implying there is no point in asking him.
The Greens campaign on the promise they will use their numbers in the Senate to extort concessions from Labor. This could rebound on the Greens. It’s possible that voters will conclude the single best thing that could happen in the Senate would be to support Labor…and that Labor will collect seats from its enemies, including the Cadets. I live in hope. The Senate is a minefield at the moment. Voters can clear the mines of they choose.
The majority of Australian voters have either been climate denialists and/or unwilling to pay personally for climate action for the last three federal elections.
THAT is where the so-called ‘duty of care’ begins and ends – in the collective mind of the majority of the voters. They can assign the ‘duty’, be silent on it, or with hold it.
Droughts, fires, record temperatures, and floods have generated a larger realization that everyone is going to pay whether they want to or not.
A strong action from Jenny Green who I have worked with and admired for many years , placing Y7-10 on mixed mode delivery ( kids working from home a few days a week) because the staffing at Queanbeyan HS is to low to staff a full timetable.
Jenny was principal at Boorowa and since moving to Queanbeyan has done wonders for that school .
Expect more principals to follow suit to relieve staffing shortages and ram home the complete arse-up that NSW DoE has made if staffing. You go girl!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-15/queanbeyan-high-students-told-to-stay-home-amid-teacher-shortage/100910060
laughtongsays:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 9:15 am
Taylor Made
Vic not the only place with issues with their ambulances.
_____________________
If you want to go down that path make sure you are comparing the same issue.
We are not talking about when the ambulance arrives but when the call is answered.
We know in Victoria it has taken 16 minutes before someone at ESTA gets around to answering the phone call.
Good enough ? Yes or No
That WA poll is not good for the Scommochio. No wonder he was up in WA yesterday telling McGowan what a lovely man he is and offering WA a $4.3b pork barrel in the form a defence spending infrastructure and reminding WA that he {not the tax payers of Australia} that gave WA a ‘fairer slice’ of the GST pie.
The generosity of the Liberal Party using our taxes as their political bank account is astounding. Lismore, here you go $$$, Ballina get stuffed. Here, have a blue ribbon seat rail car park or three [Kooyong] whether you want them or not.
Meanwhile, I have my beady eye on 18 Coalition held seats with a vote margin under 10,000 {includes Wentworth for fun cause I can’t stand Sharma]. If just over half of these seats voters switch to Labor its goodnight and thanks for leaving.
There are 18 Coalition seats with a vote margin under 10,000 {including no chance for Labor Wentworth}. Labor only has to win a third of these seats to win majority government in 2022.
Bass–563
Chisholm–1,090
Wentworth–2,346
Boothby–3,047
Braddon–4,329
Swan–4,529
Reid–5,960
Longman–6,525
Robertson–8,139
Leichhardt–7,491
Higgins –7,800
La Trobe–8,863
Dickson –8,988
Deakin–9,307
Hasluck–9,074
Casey–9,274
Lindsay–9,825
Brisbane–10,033
Source: AEC 2019 election results. Does not account for redistributions or by elections.
https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseDivisionalResults-24310.htm.
Of course there will be unexpected gains and losses on both sides of the floor, but if Labor’s PV comes out at 41-42 % on polling day it should be game over.
Setting to the side whether determination of a negligence claim is the appropriate way to address what is really a matter of policy…
What was the duty that was alleged to exist?
It was a “personal duty of care to a broad class (all persons resident in Australia under the age of 18 at the time of the commencement of the proceeding) on the Minister for the Environment (or upon her delegate from the Department) when exercising her statutory powers (which have the object of particular environmental protections, not involving the environment as a whole, as an end in and of itself)”.
Given the proposed duty related to the exercise of statutory powers, you then need to look to what factors the statute required and allowed to be taken into account. The protection of human health was not one of those factors. In fact, it is excluded as a factor to be taken into account (the Act requires the minister NOT to consider any matters not required or pemitted to be considered under the relevant Division).
Again, if it is thought that the protection of human health should be a factor when assessing environmental approvals (which may very well have merit), it is a job for the Parliament to resolve, and for the people to elect a Parliament that will resolve it.
The Cave’s main rag’s deadwood version cartoon not a good one for SfM. An unshaven SfM and the Reichspud are on a ‘wild west’ covered wagon passing someone walking the other way pushing a wheelbarrow *(Albo) . SfM asks who it is Reichspud tells him he doesn’t know, thinks it might be a Bob Hawke Impersonator.
The telling part was the wagon. It was drawn by a very mangy horse and on the side of the wagon a pork barrel and written on the side of the wagon….
Dr Scomo
* Jobs
* Economic Cures
* Nat Security
* Snake Oil
———————————-
* The sort people pushed on the way to the gold fields back in the day.