Utting Research: 10% swing to Labor in WA marginals

Two sets of polling data suggest Labor is set to bag three if not four Liberal-held seats in Western Australia.

The first bit of poll news to relate involves YouGov’s rather remarkable result ahead of Saturday’s South Australian state election, which you can read about in the post below. The bad polling news for the conservative side of politics doesn’t end there:

The West Australian today has seat polls from the Liberals’ four most marginal seats in Western Australia, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample size of 750. Given the fairly small sample size, it would only seem safe to pool the results and tally up the overall swings. Labor holds a lead across the four seats of 54-46 in the poll compared with a post-redistribution average of 56.1-43.9, suggesting Labor would comfortably win Swan (margin 3.3%), Pearce (5.5%) and Hasluck (5.9%), and be in the hunt for Tangney (9.8%). The average primary votes in the poll are Liberal 35.9% (down 10.2%), Labor 42.4% (up 11.8%), Greens 6.5% (down 4.4%), One Nation 4.0% (down 0.5%) and United Australia Party 3.2%. The West Australian’s report does break down the numbers, which for what they’re worth have it at 50-50 in Tangney, with Labor leading 52-48 in Hasluck, 55-45 in Pearce and 59-41 in Swan. Primary votes are also included in the report, if you can access it.

• The West Australian also reported yesterday that a poll commissioned by the Greens in Western Australia and conducted by the Online Research Unit recorded Labor on 42% (up 12.2% on the 2019 election result), the Coalition on 33% (down 12.2%), the Greens on 11% (down 0.6%) and the United Australia Party on 1% (down 1.0%) independents on 9%, leaving 4% to be accounted for by either minor parties or an undecided component. It also had Senate results of Labor 39% (up 11.4%), Coalition 33% (down 9.3%), Greens 12% (down 0.2%), the United Australia Party on 2% (up 0.2%) and independents 11%, leaving 3% unaccounted for. A sample size and field work dates were not provided.

• The Australian yesterday had further results from the weekend Newspoll featuring an occasional exercise measuring respondents’ assessments of the leaders’ characteristics. I tend not to get too excited about these as they generally march in lock-step with the leaders’ overall approval ratings, although there would be some value in assessing the balance of the various results for different leaders over the long term, which is something I never quite find time to do. The latest results find Scott Morrison with a stronger result than Anthony Albanese on “experienced”, which is fairly typical for the incumbent, but losing his advantage on “decisive and strong”, falling further behind on “in touch with the voters” and “likeable”, and continuing to have a problem on “arrogant”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,052 comments on “Utting Research: 10% swing to Labor in WA marginals”

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  1. “ Speers said those politicians closest to Kitching are backgrounding journalists about bullying claims. I wonder who he is talking about?”

    Raff and perhaps even your mate Billy (but I suspect he has his proxies to do that sort of work). Probably also the South Australian SDA connection.

  2. Dought it would be Raf secone wherewhiy do you believe its him the reports from the plummers guy was that victorian sda which in a alience with marles and andrews were atempting to replace her so unlikely to be raf mor likely fitsgiben and shorten maybi don farell litel known sa head of sda also michael danbey the liberalmsuporting minister for israil could be involved as he seems like his a liberal suporter

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