The first bit of poll news to relate involves YouGov’s rather remarkable result ahead of Saturday’s South Australian state election, which you can read about in the post below. The bad polling news for the conservative side of politics doesn’t end there:
• The West Australian today has seat polls from the Liberals’ four most marginal seats in Western Australia, conducted Friday to Monday from a sample size of 750. Given the fairly small sample size, it would only seem safe to pool the results and tally up the overall swings. Labor holds a lead across the four seats of 54-46 in the poll compared with a post-redistribution average of 56.1-43.9, suggesting Labor would comfortably win Swan (margin 3.3%), Pearce (5.5%) and Hasluck (5.9%), and be in the hunt for Tangney (9.8%). The average primary votes in the poll are Liberal 35.9% (down 10.2%), Labor 42.4% (up 11.8%), Greens 6.5% (down 4.4%), One Nation 4.0% (down 0.5%) and United Australia Party 3.2%. The West Australian’s report does break down the numbers, which for what they’re worth have it at 50-50 in Tangney, with Labor leading 52-48 in Hasluck, 55-45 in Pearce and 59-41 in Swan. Primary votes are also included in the report, if you can access it.
• The West Australian also reported yesterday that a poll commissioned by the Greens in Western Australia and conducted by the Online Research Unit recorded Labor on 42% (up 12.2% on the 2019 election result), the Coalition on 33% (down 12.2%), the Greens on 11% (down 0.6%) and the United Australia Party on 1% (down 1.0%) independents on 9%, leaving 4% to be accounted for by either minor parties or an undecided component. It also had Senate results of Labor 39% (up 11.4%), Coalition 33% (down 9.3%), Greens 12% (down 0.2%), the United Australia Party on 2% (up 0.2%) and independents 11%, leaving 3% unaccounted for. A sample size and field work dates were not provided.
• The Australian yesterday had further results from the weekend Newspoll featuring an occasional exercise measuring respondents’ assessments of the leaders’ characteristics. I tend not to get too excited about these as they generally march in lock-step with the leaders’ overall approval ratings, although there would be some value in assessing the balance of the various results for different leaders over the long term, which is something I never quite find time to do. The latest results find Scott Morrison with a stronger result than Anthony Albanese on “experienced”, which is fairly typical for the incumbent, but losing his advantage on “decisive and strong”, falling further behind on “in touch with the voters” and “likeable”, and continuing to have a problem on “arrogant”.
Tom
I’ve often wondered if the parties release information to hold waverers.
I also wondered if the constant hammering of Shorten being ahead in the polls for so long in 2018-19 might have swayed some voters. Did some feel he would win by so large a margin that they voted LNP because they didn’t want a hugely lopsided Parliament?
I’m still sitting on barbed wire with the current polling. As nervous as an alley cat, you might say.
Alpha zero
This was the case at the beginning of the year. Not sure what the situation is now.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-06/victoria-covid-deaths-compared-to-new-south-wales/100736476
Jackol says:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 10:54 am
We do need to be putting distance between ourselves and the USA as American democracy collapses in front of our eyes.
For 70 years following WW2 the US pursued a multi-lateral policy in the world…a policy that required it to extend its military reach beyond its continental limits. This was a really quite exceptional stance for the US, which until 1941 had been generally non-interventionist abroad.
If the US reverts to an inward focus, this will be consistent with its historical inclinations. We should expect this to happen. No other country is as externally directed as the US has been since WW2. There’s no reason to suppose they will always be “exceptional” in this respect.
The US is experiencing a lot of internal tension and that is reflected in their politics. Doubtless this will resolve itself in time. Their constitutional order will almost certainly survive, even if it experiences some contortions along the way. It has survived Civil War, Depression and foreign wars too. It will outlive Trumpism.
But the US may become far more self-occupied than we are accustomed to or comfortable with. We should prepare for that. We have been free-riding for a long time.
”
Cronussays:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 10:05 am
Ven
It really is time the media, on a daily basis with facts and statistics, called out the lies and myths about the Coalition being better economic managers. It’s simply untrue and voters deserve better from the fourth estate. Failure to do this is simply aiding and abetting the Coalition’s lies.
”
That expectation from MSM is a ‘Pip dream’ Cronus, a ‘Pipe dream’
Taylormade @ #98 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 11:02 am
I don’t know enough about the NSW system to know if we would be comparing apples with apples or oranges. Certainly I agree there are issues all through all the systems due to covid and many were struggling prior to covid.
What I do know is that the current state govt has/is invested in hospitals – Monash Childrens and the coming Heart hospital, Footscray and the planned Melton one, plus major extensions to Sunshine. They are also investing in ETSA to resolve issues there. When my OH needed an ambulance in Nov the service was good considering it was not a life threatening emergency
p
Not fair to snakes.
”
ltepsays:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 10:15 am
“Is it any wonder so many people think the law is an ass?”
It’s the job of the people to elect a Parliament that will address climate change, not for the courts to determine through a law suit.
”
True
Looks to me like the Victorian Government are addressing the Ambulance Response Time issue with a comprehensive overhaul and injection of money. This piece from the ABC is a balanced summary.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/fatal-triple-0-delays-in-victoria-more-esta-funding/100887672
Another excellent reason why we should opt for strongly-armed neutrality:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/16/rising-us-isolationism-means-australia-must-become-more-resilient-and-autonomous-thinktank-warns
Scotty Sniggerine collectables…
https://twitter.com/randaltsrandal/status/1503599242463498247?s=21
Boerwar……I think I agree with you on that type of defence policy. A strong, but not wasteful defence force. A neutral foreign policy, but with strong relations with like minded countries. The only alliance maybe with NZ.
Albo is getting really shitty with the line of questions relating to the Sherri Markson article in The Australian this morning where she described some Labor MPs/senators as “mean girls” with respect to Kimberley Kitching.
Boerwar at 10:42 am
During the “Plague Years’ I’ve considered the improper wearing and non wearing of masks to be a very good indicator of “cognitive impairment’
Ven @ #78 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 11:09 am
Labor could always put the alternative out there 🙂
Thanks BK. Not so much for this…
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-deserve-to-know-how-we-will-descend-our-mountain-of-debt-20220315-p5a4vh.html
‘Coalition’s…disciplined management…’!!! I say again FFFFFS!!!
How can anyone look objectively at this govt and declare them to be ‘disciplined managers’???
Exhibit Q (we’re well through the alphabet) tendered in evidence to support the ‘media’s anti-Labor conspiracy’ charge, m’Lud.
Of course, should Labor be elected, they’ll demand Albo clean up the debt mountain by lunch time…
Herald Sun 16/03
Concerns have been raised over the major review into the state’s triple-0 service as it’s revealed staff were personally selected to take part in the consultation process.
Former police chief commissioner Graham Ashton is leading the review into the Emergency Services Telecommunications Authority that is probing a series of deaths linked to call delays.
It can be revealed consulting firm PwC, who were engaged by Emergency Management Victoria to manage consultations with employees, raised concerns about how staff were selected to take part.
It is understood PwC raised the matter with both EMV and ESTA ahead of initial consultations in December amid fears the impartiality of review may have been compromised.
_____________________
It’s been nobbled already.
Every single fucking time !
Am not sure how things are meant to improve in Victoria when every single review looks at the political considerations above everything else.
The other thing about wearing a mask is that people tend to give you a wide berth, regardless.
Windhover @ #84 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 10:50 am
So the reason for the decision was that it is too difficult to assess monetary compensation for damage?
Then the law is indeed an ass.
Apropos quite clever isn’t it, there’s a Tasmanian chamber orchestra called Van Diemen’s Band.
Good to see Taylormade is still making people smile
Boerwar at 11:10 am
Perhaps but Alston looks to have nailed SfM’s election campaign.
.
.
* Jobs
* Economic Cures
* Nat Security
* Snake Oil
Taylormade in hysterical mode again.
The Government is overhauling the system and injecting money.
Voters always want to know what the Government is doing about a problem. Not having the problem repeated ad nauseum.
Politically, the problem disappears for the Government if the reforms are implemented and bedded down by the Election later this year. Don’t you agree?
NATO creeping towards Russia’s borders is dangerous-(I told you so twenty five years ago)
A certain Mr Keating, 1977
https://johnmenadue.com/nato-creeping-towards-russias-western-borders-is-dangerous/
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 10:31 am
“This is one of the many reasons why I would prefer Australia goes with the British or French submarine option if Labor is in office. I think the political risks are less, and being closer in size, we can better maintain our sovereignty than if we were dependent on the USA.”
careful Socrates. “Some people” might think that those sentiments are tantamount to treason.
Of course, it’s not just America that is facing an existential domestic political crisis. have you had a gander at Little Britain recently?
”
AE
But I still think Britain can overcome their political crisis because of its political structure, aka parliamentary democracy. USA has invested too much in their President. He is both Head of State/Head of Government, where in parliamentary democracy PM is Head of Government. Hence, the instability in US system. I know, I know there are lots of checks and balances in US system and US Constitution, Institutions and Congress act as a check on the Power of President. But Trump has shown how a Presidency can be used destructively.
Only if a few State officials and politicians acted as per Trump wishes/ orders, Trump would still be President.
So no matter how much some of our PB bloggers support Biden, that is how things are at the moment.
My faith in US is really shaken in US political system after January 6, 2021.
“It’s been nobbled already.
Every single fucking time !”
But by and for whom, PwC are clearly in breach of their contract, and it isn’t clear that their whining is within the scope of their engagement. PwC’s motivations and impartiality are extraordinarily suspect.
Disclaimer: PwC did once try to recruit me, but they were unsuccesful. Their problematic culture is well known.
Sandman says:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 11:04 am
I agree. The PV is the first thing. And then there’s the PV of the Greens: the lower the better it will be for Labor’s PV.
And then there are the prefs of the non-Green “others”. Some of the votes going to the “others” will never be distributed as prefs, because they will be among the last 2 candidates in a lot of seats…in all the currently independently-held seats, and in seats where the Lite may be competitive with the Heavy: Wentworth, North Sydney, Goldstein, Kooyong, Higgins, Wannon, Nicholls, Curtin…and maybe others too. “Other” primary votes in these seats will probably tally to around 6% of the national total.
The total non-Labor/non-LRP vote is supposedly 25%. The Greens might be 8%. 6% of the “other” vote will likely not be distributed. So the balance “other” vote will be 10-11-12%. Some of this will be in safe LRP-held regional and rural seats in Queensland and NSW, and will never be distributed. The rest (I have not tried to estimate it) will be cast in urban and peri-urban marginals… in the seats where elections are usually decided.
If Labor attract 5% from these sources then its 2PP vote would be:
PV = 42
Ex-Green = 6
Ex-Other = 5
Consolidated 2PP = 53%….Labor’s best result since 1983.
All other candidates would tally to 46, but this would include all the Independent winners and losers as well as the LRP. Votes for Independents that remained undistributed would likely account for 7% of the national 2PP. And the LRP would account for the rest….39%.
If Labor can hold on to 41-42%, if the 3rd voices do well in Lib-held seats, then Labor will win comfortably. They may not have a massive tally, seat-wise. But their opponents will be a shattered rabble. The total swing against the LRP would exceed 12% and it would be divided between Labor and disaffected Tories.
Zoe Daniel on the front foot again over climate change.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1503637283647356929
OH follows an ‘insider’ on Twitter who has correctly predicted the course of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Says that one of the things Putin requested of China was for foodpacks (presumably to supply the troops).
His logistical tactics appear to have been very short-sighted if hios troops are starving!
Greensborough Growler @ #127 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 11:40 am
So good.
JenAuthor @ #128 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 11:40 am
Yes … ” Russia asks China for meal kits for soldiers amid claims of food shortages on frontline ”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-china-food-soldiers-ukraine-b2035906.html
56-44 in Morgan:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8917-federal-voting-intention-mid-march-2022-202203160002
Cliché alert: ‘an army marches on its stomach’.
One final comment on submarines before I disappear off to work. In office I think Labor will be stuck with building nuclear (SSN) submarines. There is nothing else that can reliably do the job in terms of range, given the poor progress made with Sea 1000.
I can see only one reason why Labor should go with the US SSN option if offered – time to build. Following a decade of Liberal failure, the need to replace the Collins Class is now urgent. If neither UK or France is in a position to supply reactors and get construction going quickly, and USA can, then we will have to build Virginia Class (preferably Block IV).
There are IMO two very good reasons why Labor should go for a British or French SSN option:
1. Cost – the British and French options are probably a billion $ per boat cheaper to build than the USA one. The operating costs will be similarly higher due to the much larger crew on the US ones too. The USA option will cost at least $10 billion more as a program than the British or French options. Just because we are going to have to buy something expensive (SSNs) does not mean we should have to buy the most expensive option.
2. Nuclear proliferation and not scaring the neighbours – the US SSNs have a missile launching capability (VLM) that is considerable. The Block IV Virginia Class can fire 12 cruise missiles (e.g. Tomahawks) while underwater. The Block V can fire 40 missiles. Nobody talks about it much but these missiles could be nuclear armed. They are not really an anti-ship weapon, so this is about attacking land targets. The land attack risk, combined with nuclear potential, could alarm SE Asian nations. The British and French subs can also fire missiles from their torpedo tubes, but at a much slower rate of fire, which is much less threatening to land targets. So they are more purely naval defensive assets.
Have a good day all.
What’s “creeping” about Eastern European states applying to join NATO? Don’t they have “legitimate security concerns” or do only the views of imperialist countries count?
Albo was great in Dickson this morning. Good on him for tearing some journos a new one over the Kimberley Kitching issue.
ItzaDream @ #129 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 11:44 am
Yes, it is the independents who we will have to rely on step up and act on our behalf, not the major parties.
However, she may find the courts disagree with her on this bit … “We have a duty of care to our young people.”
William
Thanks. The State breakdown in Roy Morgan is interesting:
“The ALP’s lead in NSW has increased slightly since early March with the ALP now on 56.5% (up 0.5% points since early March) compared to the L-NP on 43.5% (down 0.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Victoria has been cut with the ALP now on 60% (down 3.5% points since early March) compared to the L-NP on 40% (up 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The LNP has increased its advantage in Queensland with the LNP on 52% (up 0.5% points since early March) level with the ALP on 48% (down 0.5% points). Despite the LNP’s lead this result represents a swing of 6.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Western Australia has increased slightly since early March with the ALP on 53% (up 1% point since early March) cf. L-NP 47% (down 1% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 8.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia the ALP leads on 54.5% (up 2% points since early March) cf. the L-NP on 45.5% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 3.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP leads strongly in Tasmania with the ALP 66.5% cf. L-NP 33.5%, representing a large swing of 10.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. ”
How good is Australia!
“56-44 in Morgan:
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8917-federal-voting-intention-mid-march-2022-202203160002”
56.5-43.5 last time. With about a 5-6 point left bias.
It’s the narrowing.
Nostradamus @ #139 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 11:54 am
Only your nostrils 🙂
Dutton makes a speech
Itza+ Jen
I’d go ‘upstream’, up to the original report at CNN. Note the bolded words. Basically gossip and rumor. Notice also how the food request bit changed between CNN and The Independent.
.
.
open source reports have shown Russian troops breaking into grocery stores in search of food as the invasion has progressed.
One of the sources suggested that food might be a request that China would be willing to meet, because it stops short of lethal assistance that would be seen as provocative by the west.
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-14-22/h_ce185097a87faa16c818bf34485e7904
In your case, it’s “The Harrowing”, Nostro.
mimhoff @ #135 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 8:49 am
That was not Keating’s point.
He was arguing that if NATO pushed east towards Russia, it would increase the chances of Russia pushing back.
This has been expressed as a concern dating back to the break up of the Soviet Union.
The separation of NATO and Russia would act as a buffer against any tension that might be created by a common boundary.
Barrel of oil
Week ago: $128
Now: $99
Nostradamus, your optimism is really quite inspiring.
ItzaDream @ #133 Wednesday, March 16th, 2022 – 8:47 am
But Putin’s got all those tanks and trucks, so they don’t need to march.
@Asha – who doesn’t appreciate performance art?
P1,
Unlike yourself, Daniel has got off her arse and got a campaign going. She’s coming across as thoughtful and considered and genuinely interested in delivering some really positive outcomes in the area of Climate Change amongst other issues. She’s not kidding herself that you can demand and hector and play the self righteous martyr to achieve anything. She’s also not kidding herself that the struggle to get results will not involve hard work, discipline and being able to work with others to achieve a result.
You’ve raised this same point a number of times this morning. The judges job is to interpret laws as they are. If you want to change the law you need to join a party or get yourself elected and then go about organising for changes to the Legislation.
Whinging on PB isn’t going to get you anywhere.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 at 12:03 pm
The separation of NATO and Russia would act as a buffer against any tension that might be created by a common boundary.
—
1. They already share a common boundary. Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland all have land borders with Russian territory.
2. These ‘buffer countries’ as you describe them are entitled to choose whichever alliances they wish. They’re not pawns for some mythical empire making.