Preselection developments and another Morgan poll

A solution set to be imposed from above on the New South Wales Liberals’ preselection mess, and a Roy Morgan finding that the Ukraine war hasn’t moved the dial.

A federal intervention into the New South Wales branch of the Liberal Party is set to end a long-standing preselection impasse and ensure the re-endorsement of three sitting members who would otherwise have faced strong opposition in rank-and-file ballots: Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, whose machinations as a leader in the centre right faction have been widely blamed for the deadlock; Farrer MP and Environment Minister Sussan Ley; and factional moderate Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney.

The New South Wales branch has also been directed to “rectify the circumstances that candidates have not been selected and endorsed in other House of Representatives seats” by March 25. According to Max Maddison of The Australian, the upshot of this is that the following candidates will be rubber-stamped without a rank-and-file ballot: Alex Dore in Hughes, where he will run against party renegade and United Australia Party member Craig Kelly in the face of fierce opposition from the local membership; cardiologist Michael Feneley in Dobell, held for Labor by Emma McBride on a margin of 1.5%; disability campaigner David Brady in Warringah, where he will run against independent Zali Steggall; Franchise Council of Australia director Maria Kovacic in Parramatta, held by retiring Labor member Julie Owens on a margin of 3.5%; banker Pradeep Pathi in Greenway, held for Labor by Michelle Rowland on a margin of 2.8%; and Jerry Nockles, former chief-of-staff to Senator Jim Molan, in Eden-Monaro, which Kristy McBain retained for Labor at a by-election held in July 2020 by 0.4%.

Further preselection news:

• Labor’s Victorian Senate preselection is moving towards resolution after the failure of legal action by Right faction unions associated with Bill Shorten to overturn the takeover of the process by the party’s national executive. Sarah Martin of The Guardian cites multiple sources within the party saying this is likely to result in the defeat of factional powerbroker Kim Carr, who has served in the Senate since 1993. Possible challengers for a position that is reserved to the Left include Linda White, the former national secretary of the Australian Services Union; Ryan Batchelor, a former staffer to Julia Gillard and the executive director of the McKell Institute; and Josh Bornstein, an industrial relations lawyer and Maurice Blackburn partner who appears to have reconsidered his earlier decision to withdraw over past social media posts criticising figures within the party and union movement.

• Anthony Byrne, member for the safe Labor seat of Holt in south-eastern Melbourne, announced on Thursday that he will retire at the election. According to The Age, there are two candidates for the preselection linked with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, which has traditionally controlled the seat: its national assistant secretary, Julia Fox, and Stephen Parnis, an emergency physician. Other Right faction contenders cited by Greg Brown of The Australian include Helen Cooney, director of Rest Super, and Liberty Sanger, director of Maurice Blackburn and wife of former MP David Feeney, along with Jo Briskey, political co-ordinator of the Left faction United Workers Union.

The Age reports Ross Lyman, head of supply and operations at McWilliam’s Wines and a former army commando who served in Afghanistan, will run against independent Helen Haines as the Liberal candidate for Indi.

James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports the mayor and deputy mayor of Fairfield, Frank Carbone and Dai Le, are considering running as independents against Kristina Keneally in the western Sydney seat of Fowler, either individually and directing preferences to each other or with one supported by the other. Carbone polled nearly three-quarters of the vote in a two-horse race against a Labor candidate at the mayoral election in December, and Le polled 25.9% of the vote as an independent state candidate in Cabramatta in 2019, and 42.4% as the Liberal candidate in 2011.

Poll latest:

• Roy Morgan released its second set of federal voting intention numbers in a week on Thursday, having conducted a fresh poll to ascertain any effect from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the previous poll having been conducted entirely before then. All we are provided with is a two-party result of 56.5-43.5 for Labor, no different from the previous poll, with no primary votes or state breakdowns.

• Market research firm Momentum Intelligence has published a report gauging voting intention and political views of professionals in specific industry sectors, which finds Labor strongly favoured among those in the legal services sector, but the Coalition preferred in, ascendingly, aviation, accounting services, defence and national security, financial advice and wealth management, real estate services and mortgage lending, from sample of mostly around 300. The full report can be downloaded here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,363 comments on “Preselection developments and another Morgan poll”

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  1. “ I had rather guessed that the reason for going french with big fat conventional submarines was that we would have vertical launch capability therein.”

    No. Stowage space for 24 heavy weapons forward and launched through 4, 21 inch horizontal launch tubes.

    However, the French boats do have a very large modular space aft of the sail which has a number of sealed hatches for submerged deployment of special forces, large remote drones etc. It also has a removable dry shelter that can be attached on top of hull just behind the sail for a mini sub to deploy special forces at up to 80nm from target.

    So very capable, but not in the same way that Dutton is having wet dreams over.

    Interestingly the French pitched the Indians a variant of the conventional barracuda with vertical launch tubes:

    https://www.naval-technology.com/projects/smx-ocean-conventionally-powered-attack-submarine/

    So, if really did need some small vertical launch capability, on top of the existing capabilities of the barracuda, we could go with the French. I would suggest a combination of 24 heavy weapons storage forward, plus a seperate 12-16 vertical launch tubes for medium and long range cruise missiles and that large modular space etc behind the sail would have been a perfect design for all our particular and specific submarine needs. Alas.

  2. Labor are great at implementation. That’s what they have to focus on in the election campaign. Announcements are fine, carrying it through to successful completion is a whole other thing.

  3. Meanwhile, an ABC report suggests the Coalition are in trouble in WA with Pearce Swan and Hasluck in Labor’s sights and a decimated Liberal Party who will struggle to get funding and boots on the ground come election time. After years of promise unfulfilled, it seems the election gods have conspired to bring about change in WA and Labor might actually gain seats there despite the history of bloated polling results.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-06/federal-election-2022-wa-could-liberals-lose-pearce-swan-curtin/100874808

  4. On the Dutton interview, very disappointing:
    – the subs decision was supposed to take 18 months to sort out the details. Either that was a lie or Dutton is pushing it ahead of the election for political purposes.
    – if the decision is really made why aren’t we building the required infrastructure so the build can start sooner and we avoid the “valley of death” problem for jobs?
    – saying the RAN SSNs would have vertical launch tubes (VLS) leaves only one choice – the US Virginia class. The RAN getting this technology requires US Congressional approval. Has this been agreed?
    – the Virginia Class is the most expensive option and its builder (EB) does not have a yard in Australia.
    – the French boat is too small (hull diameter) to fit Tomahawk VLS tubes (the French missile is smaller)
    – the British boat is large enough to fit VLS but this would require a redesign – it would add time.
    – why do we want VLS tubes? They can launch long range cruise missiles at land targets. That was never part of the Sea 1000 specification
    – this creates the potential Australian SSNs could threaten land targets. Do we want that? Would our SE Asian neighbours be comfortable with that?
    – why were these issues not announced and debated in parliament two weeks ago??
    – why did the Senate not get told when the Senate report was dumped at the end of Feb?

    Once again, process and accountability are out the window on a decision that will cost $90+ billion.

  5. “Labor are great at implementation…”

    Whereas the Coalition, which doesn’t believe that Governments should be doing stuff, are utterly hopeless at it.

  6. Socrates at 10.17am, I’ve just corrected your typo…

    “Once again, process and accountability are out the window on a decision that will cost A BILLION GAJILLION DOLLARS.”

  7. Further on the subs, people should understand that the VLS tubes are not essential to fire missiles from a submarine. The Collins Class can fire Harpoon missiles now. The missiles can be launched from a torpedo tube in a canister. This rises to the surface and the missile then ignites and flies off. The US subs carry more missiles though, and the VLS tubes give them a higher rate of fire.

    Against this, the Virginia Class sub carries less torpedoes (or UAVs or mines) than the British design and about the same as the smaller French design.

    For pure ASW or anti-ship warfare against an approaching naval aggressor, there is no advantage getting the US sub. The Tomahawks and VLS tubes are all about being able to fire volleys of missiles at land targets in China. Is that what we want?

    NB: There is a Virginia model without the VLS tubes too. Even the USN only configures a small proportion of its subs in this fashion.

  8. NSW :

    Five people with COVID-19 have died in New South Wales during the latest reporting period.

    The state has recorded 8,782 new cases and hospital patient numbers have risen slightly to 1,009.

    …………………………………………………………………………………………

    Victoria “:

    Victoria has reported another four COVID-related deaths and 5,046 new infections.

    There are 219 people in hospital with the virus.

    ………………………………………………………………

    WA :

    Western Australia has recorded 2,289 new COVID-19 cases

  9. Snappy Tom

    Yes sadly you are correct 🙁

    It seems every decision lately by Scomo and his merry men is either wedge politics or wasting billions of taxpayer $ with their mates. Meanwhile we still “can’t afford” flood relief, or a decent NDIS and public schools.

    All of the SSN sub options are expensive, but the British or French options would probably be more than $10 billion cheaper, or more than a billion $ per sub. The extra crew cost alone is billions.

  10. Dont know about anyone else….but I am totally over “subs”…..the last ones we had spent abot 10 minutes in the water…..then we ordered French ones….cancelled them at the last minute and pissed the French off no end and now this…..they cost too much do too little….and against any foe that matters are too few in number and Australia coastline too massive to make a scrap of difference

  11. ‘BeaglieBoy says:
    Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 10:38 am

    Dont know about anyone else….but I am totally over “subs”…..the last ones we had spent abot 10 minutes in the water…..then we ordered French ones….cancelled them at the last minute and pissed the French off no end and now this…..they cost too much do too little….and against any foe that matters are too few in number and Australia coastline too massive to make a scrap of difference’
    ————————————————————-

    Uh huh. The Greens are promising you a Light Mobile Force. No subs. No jets. No surface fleet. No tanks. No artillery. Fuck all, actually. Just to ram the point home the Greens spokesperson for defence is called the Greens Spokesperson for Disarmament. The Greens always have an argument against any defence purchase. Usually their arguments have about as much subtlety as your’s does.

  12. I predicted correctly that David Speers did not ask one question about the fj revelations about Dutton. He didn’t even have enough guts to ask him about the GoFundMe page.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood @ #71 Sunday, March 6th, 2022 – 9:38 am

    So Dutton wants nuclear submarines with vertical launch tubes as a deterrent. Is that code for nuclear weapons?

    It certainly represents a major shift away from the primary mission of our submarine capability: Sea Denial.

    There will be a big announcement in a couple of months. Ie. at the start of the election campaign, without any opportunity to scrutinise the ‘details’, with the LNP and MSM both saying ‘this is a test for Labor’ and hence as a likely outcome Labor being forced to promise a blank cheque once it gets into government.

    No Sea Denial Capability.

    Likely vapourware for 20-30 years.

    No detail costings. Opaqueness. In other words take the $90 billion Attack class contract, the $5 billion Hunter class contract and multiply massively. Unleashing a regional nuclear arms race in the process.

    Ain’t it all grand?

    It would politically easy for Labor to respond by saying the Govt’s record on spending has proven them to be untrustworthy so a Labor Govt will responsibly re-asses any commitments the Govt makes.

  14. BK…but that took 10+ years in drydock to achieve…..a waste of money and useless against any superpower….
    ____________
    BeagleBoy
    The FCD (Full Cycle Docking), after a justifiably excoriating report from Coles, has gone from four years to two and this has since been recognised and praised by Coles.

  15. Putting aside subs, this whole saga (plus delays on frigates, buying tanks at random, and faulty helicopters) shows that Australia’s defence acquisition process under the Liberals is out of control.

    Years of delay, systems not working, billions wasted, promised jobs never eventuating. I say again, an inquiry is needed.

    There are some impartial comparisons of the sub options here:
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/france-australia-deal-submarine-technology-comparisons-2021-9?r=US&IR=T
    https://www.naval-technology.com/features/astute-vs-virginia-best-submarine/
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/05/02/the-french-navys-new-suffren-class-attack-submarine/?sh=38ae119865c5

    And a fairly partial one here (ASPI is partly funded by a US manufacturer):
    https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/astute-versus-virginia-which-nuclear-powered-sub-is-the-best-fit-for-australia/

    Have a good day all.

  16. Thank god I’m about to go out for a few hours. We’re back to The Greens’ Light Mobile Force for the umpteenth time. Not to mention…

  17. “Usually their arguments have about as much subtlety as your’s does.”

    Boerwar kills irony AGAIN!

    It’s a very strange obsession!

  18. Socrates – you are spot on in my view this morning except for two points. Firstly, we are no longer looking at a 90 billion procurement program. Even if contracts are negotiated in good faith and professionally we are looking at double that for 8 virginia class subs. However using the Fort Fumble multiplier factor we could be looking at something closer to half a trillion dollars, just for procurement.

    secondly:

    “ the French boat is too small (hull diameter) to fit Tomahawk VLS tubes (the French missile is smaller)”

    This is incorrect. The hull of the French design in 9M in diameter. The submarine launched Tomahawk does not need launch tubes longer than about 6.5-7M. The same as the French Storm shadow long range missile (and hence what Naval Group were pitching to the Indians as a Barracuda variant last decade).

    Further, one can also design in an extension on the top of the hull IF the VLS needs extra length. Indeed, if you look closely at the Block V Virginia’s you will see that the top of their Virginia Payload Module sits above the line of its hull. That’s because its 6 silos are 12M in length – so that they are future proofed to take on board the longer Hypersonic missiles that are expected to enter service soon. However, the Block V’s retain the two 7M long Virginia Launch silos in front of the sail – each of which are capable of launching 6 x 6.5M long Tomahawk missiles.

    Edited to add in Wikipedia article on the Storm Shadow: check out the Naval Variant: 6.5M in length. Comparable to the Tomahawk in nearly every aspect (including range and payload).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow

    This is the Wikipedia page on the Tomahawk:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile)

  19. BK…..and now we going replace them….in 20 years time we might have a replacement…..maybe….. if they work…..obsolete by the time we get them……Australias primary defence should be Air power and missile defence. Noone is going to invade us, or mount an amphibious assault while our airforce is in operation……modern wars are missiles and fighter jets and fighter bombers first before a single soldier hits the beach…..fat lot of good a few subs poncing around in a vast sea and a vast coastline are going to do about that

  20. According to the map in the Guardian Russian froces driving east towards Kyiv has advanced around 250km in ten days. On the way through they may or may not have captured a Ukrainian air base and the town of Konotop, population 84,000. The latest report I can find is that Konotop was surrounded and the mayor was urging resistance. (I wonder how Australian mayors and Australian towns would behave under similar circumstances?)

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/04/russias-war-in-ukraine-complete-guide-in-maps-video-and-pictures

  21. Andrew

    Fair enough. I recall reading somewhere that for each of these subs the diameter of the pressure hull was critical for the VLS tubes, but I don’t know.

    Either way, I think we are agreed that waffling on about VLS tubes (which were never in the Sea 1000 specification) is waffle to justify picking one pre-determined very expensive option.

    The real problem (time to deliver) was never discussed by Dutton (or asked by Speers). This is setting up for another election stunt, like Chris Pyne before the 2016 election.

  22. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 10:52 am

    “Usually their arguments have about as much subtlety as your’s does.”

    Boerwar kills irony AGAIN!

    It’s a very strange obsession!’
    ———————————–
    What I find very strange is the Greens’ obsession about leaving Australia defenceless.

    I find this strange because the global security arrangements that essentially kept Australia reasonably safe since 1945 are falling apart. Our security future is opaque to an extent but is obviously filled with increasing national security risks.
    I assume that even Greens supporters know that people like Putin and Xi laugh at their peace studies.
    I assume that even Greens supporters know that multilateral frameworks have failed utterly to deter Putin’s War.
    But perhaps Bandt and Jordan Steele-John do have some sense. They have been reasonably careful not to lead with this item in their comprehensive suite of costed policies.

    I assume this bit of rat cunning is being applied because, if their 10% actually understood what the Greens have planned for the ADF, a swag of their existing supporters would, quite rightly, bail out.

  23. ‘Socrates says:
    Sunday, March 6, 2022 at 11:04 am

    Andrew

    Fair enough. I recall reading somewhere that for each of these subs the diameter of the pressure hull was critical for the VLS tubes, but I don’t know.

    Either way, I think we are agreed that waffling on about VLS tubes (which were never in the Sea 1000 specification) is waffle to justify picking one pre-determined very expensive option.

    The real problem (time to deliver) was never discussed by Dutton (or asked by Speers). This is setting up for another election stunt, like Chris Pyne before the 2016 election.’
    —————————————
    Speers specifically raised the 2040 delivery date. Dutton responded by, wtte, ‘Don’t you worry about a thing. Uncle Arthur is in charge of defence procurement and we will soon announce our Third Grand Plan to Get Some Boats in the Water.

  24. My partner (Australian manufacturing expert and journalist) says the submarine advisory group of 190 has only just been put together, and has barely started the comprehensive 18-month investigation…there is no way they can report before the election.

    I presume Dutton will just announce a brain fart to wedge Labor during the campaign…what a way to decide our nations greatest ever expenditure.

  25. Let’s see if I understand the politics…

    2016…Coalition, having spent years doing nothing and needing to shore up some South Australian seats (code for: ‘putting national security first’,) announces big French subs deal…$50bn…Labor gives bi-partisan support

    2021…Coalition (the better economic managers) kill French deal, consigning at least $2bn to the toilet and announce AUKUS nuclear subs: unknown type, fewer subs, unknown cost but likely more than the French deal and years later, 18 month ‘process’ to work out details, media applaud Coalition on national security and suggest this could be an electoral winner…Labor accepts need for nuclear subs, provides bi-partisan support

    Meanwhile, a Senate committee reveals $50bn French subs cost just the tip of that iceberg, could’ve been up to $145bn…Coalition Senators write dissenting minority report…coverage of Coalition number fudging/mismanagement in mainstream media? Crickets

    2022…On Insiders, Dutton foreshadows announcement of nuclear sub type in lead up to election WITH VERTICAL MISSILE TUBES NEVER PREVIOUSLY SPECIFIED…I bet media will applaud Coalition ‘strength’ on national security, despite the fact that this looks, walks and quacks like an on-the-run pre-election stunt.

    But, woe betide Labor if they don’t provide bi-partisan support, right?

    Is there ever a point at which Labor gets to call this bullshit out? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not accusing the party of cowardice, I just reckon the media narrative and polling results basically guarantee unacceptable electoral pain if Labor do anything but…provide bi-partisan support.

    I’ll now revise my hypothesis by the additions in capitals: “The Coalition AND THEIR MEDIA ENABLERS are a clear and present danger to the national security of Australia.”

  26. Torchbearer @ #130 Sunday, March 6th, 2022 – 11:10 am

    My partner (Australian manufacturing expert and journalist) says the submarine advisory group of 190 has only just been put together, and has barely started the comprehensive 18-month investigation…there is no way they can report before the election.

    I presume Dutton will just announce a brain fart to wedge Labor during the campaign…what a way to decide our nations greatest ever expenditure.

    Liberal wedge attempts are so politically easy for Labor to slap away now given the inept management of the Govt.

    Reporter: Will Labor back the Govt announcement re subs ?

    Marles: The Govt spent $30M on a $3M piece of land, so a Labor Govt will responsibly re-assess any commitments the Govt makes in the lead up to the election.

  27. Not to mention if Labor suggests lets say free rat tests for the poor, the media screams – its uncosted, where is the money coming from?
    Liberals announce a $200 billion defense brain fart- crickets…..

  28. Snappy Tom @ #132 Sunday, March 6th, 2022 – 10:12 am

    I’ll now revise my hypothesis by the additions in capitals: “The Coalition AND THEIR MEDIA ENABLERS are a clear and present danger to the national security of Australia.”

    It’s fine. Both the Coalition and the media are laughably out of touch if they think what voters care about and want to hear about right now is submarines and specifically the orientation of the launch tubes within the submarines.

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  30. Torchbearer at 11.16am

    Exactly: Coalition gets to announce all sorts of stuff and get little scrutiny; every single Labor announcement – has it been costed? Where’s the modeling? Which taxes will you increase (assuming Labor always does that, so we maintain ‘Coalition taxes lower’ narrative)?

    Media types occasionally put these questions to Coalition – politely and only once. Labor gets hounded remorselessly. This is media ‘balance’.

    I remember 2019. Some journos questioned Morrison on his guff. He answered with ‘Canberra bubble’ and various word salads. On Insiders, journos chuckled about the impossibility of getting an answer – some even admired his technique.

    We’ll never get Rudd’s Royal Commission into Murdoch. We also won’t get what we really need: a Royal Commission into ‘the media’!

  31. “ Fair enough. I recall reading somewhere that for each of these subs the diameter of the pressure hull was critical for the VLS tubes, but I don’t know.”

    You might actually be right on that. I just reread, at a skim, an article concerning the integration of the Virginia Payload Module into the Block Vs: their workaround for the longer VL silos to accomodate longer than Tomahawk missiles was to place that fairing along the dorsal side (ie. the top) of the hull, thereby maintaining the diameter of the existing pressure hull. earlier concept drawings for the Block V had the VPM wholly within the existing 11M diameter of the hull (so I was wrong, the new VL silos are probably less than 12M, looking at the diagrams from open source materials they appear to be around 10M, whereas the two VPS at the front appear to be around 7M in length.

    However, even if the Barracuda pressure hull diameter is itself smaller than the length for either the Storm Shadow or Tomahawk (i.e 6.5M), the dorsal fairing concept provides a work around. In fact the French already do that with their SSBN fleet (as do the Americans with their Ohio class boomers – probably where they pinched the idea from in the first place).

    However I totally agree with you: what is the point of being able to launch up to 40 Tomahawk missiles as a single volley? That seems to only make sense if we want a first strike capability. Which can only mean nuclear weapons. Which all fits in with Dutton’s blathering about vertical launch deterrence.

    Scary, probably stupid and certainly way way way off course for our existing defence policy and force structure.

    In my opinion there is a case for a modest VL system (to launch up to 12 or so medium and long range missiles) – to take out both ships and key land targets if necessary, but also to free up space in the main magazine hold for more remote autonomous submersible drones (ie. using the Barracuda again as an example, we could ship 8 heavy torpedos, 12 VL missiles and 16 x 21 inch diameter long range drone submarines – or 16 torpedos and 8 large drones (plus other even larger kit in the modular bay behind the sail). That’s more than. Enough ‘capability’ that a medium sized power would ever need in any single submarine.

  32. If labor did as Sexy Rexy suggests re: any submarine announcement in the midst of a election campaign the scare campaign would write itself.

    Either the Americans have agreed to build us the first few subs at a reasonable price and timeframe – which labor would support in any case when in government – or the whole ‘announcement’ would be so nebulous that there would be sufficient wriggle room to back out of the deal after the election even if Labor gave full throated support in principle during the campaign. Whatever the announcement is, I’m confident that labor will ‘box smart’ and not be trapped in the way that Rex would have it.

  33. I do not watch Insiders anymore. I leach off the Bludgers who bravely do so and post comments about it. Thanks, you are helping my sanity. Comments today suggest I did not miss much.

  34. Labor certainly has the option to drop hints that Dutton is dangerously incompetent, at a time when dangerously incompetent can have serious repercussions, and that the Coalition’s now habitual waste and mismanagement does extend to national security.

    On another note, the response to the floods in Lismore appear to have been an utter shambles from the Federal and NSW state governments.

  35. May I crave an indulgence and talk about something totally different to subs, Warnie, cricket in general or many of the other interesting topics on here – the humble pastie.

    Some while ago a Bludger praised highly a bakery in Mittagong, particularly (from memory) their pasties. Hmm, sorry, but I passed through that town recently and was rather underwhelmed. Maybe it was the wrong time of day but a pastie with a concrete shell does nothing for me. They did make delicious fresh sandwiches however so it wasn’t all bad.

    Many years ago I was in Kingston SE in South Australia. Now there was a bakery that sold just the style of pastie that I love – a flaky pastry with a generous filling of vegetables. Would any SA bludger know if that bakery still exists as I’m planning a driving trip to SA soon?

    Also I faintly recall someone (BK perhaps?) mentioning a bakery in the Adelaide Hills (Lobethal?) where the pasties were supreme. Am I having a senior moment and it was a dream or is there an establishment in that part of the world where my pastie fantasy might come true?

  36. Simon @ #142 Sunday, March 6th, 2022 – 10:36 am

    On another note, the response to the floods in Lismore appear to have been an utter shambles from the Federal and NSW state governments.

    See, that’s more what voters are interested in. Labor would do well to focus on the real issues while Dutton prattles on about submarines.

  37. The Liberals have screwed up the sub contract two times, what it there to say this is not the third time. All their words are nothing more than their third thought bubble. The Liberals couldn’t even organize the chook for the chook raffle.

  38. Credlin showed Labor how to handle the lead up to the election – totally discredit the inept Govt with its own f-ups.

    Give them no respect whatsoever.

    Portray yourself as a responsible fresh start the nation needs.

  39. Please don’t fall for the Collins = joke meme. Australia bit off more than it could chew and then chewed like hell to turn it into a top notch sub. Yes it had early technical issues, it then had problems with crewing to keep all in the water. But to simply dismiss that sub is both wrong and makes an incorrect example that Australia isn’t capable of manufacturing such complex machines.

  40. “I would suggest a combination of 24 heavy weapons storage forward, plus a seperate 12-16 vertical launch tubes for medium and long range cruise missiles and that large modular space etc behind the sail would have been a perfect design for all our particular and specific submarine needs. Alas.”

    AE has kinda touched on this with a reference to the Virginia Payload Module. There is a design trend that pretty much seems to have started with the US converting 4 of its Ohio class SSBN to SSGN boats. They developed a canister that fits into any of the big tubes designed for Trident ballistic missiles that contains multiple Tomoahawks (7 each i think??). Virginia PM is derivative of that and seen as mor versatile than the 1 round each VLS on late Los Angeles and early Virginia class. Some of the Yanks have expressed concerns over the last few years about their force structure vs China in the context of how many missile tubes their navy can have available into the future.

    That’s where aircraft like the B21 become important. Being airborne by their nature they can sortie, strike, return, reload…rinse, repeat, on a much shorter timescale than any naval vessel. And yeah, there are pros and cons to any delivery platform that need debate. 🙂

    Anyhow, broadly, if a Sub has large diameter “lockout” tube either vertical or horizontal it can be used for many things. Diver entry / exit, Remote or small manned vehicles of any sort, SAM missiles, Mine deployment, or to carry a “cartridge” with multiple missiles of pretty much any sort that will fit in the holes. We could probably even do something like that on the Collins during LOTE using the space /weight allowance in that design for an AIP plug if we go lithium batteries?? Not simple i know but maybe not as hard as people think.

    Me, i am more and more coming around to the idea that a long range air launched cruise missile capability is a better way for us to go, provided me maintain sufficient warstocks of missiles to make it credible.

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