Federal polling: Morgan, Queensland YouGov, Newspoll extras

Labor maintains a thumping lead in the latest fortnightly Roy Morgan, albeit that a fair bit has happened in the world since it was conducted.

For those of you following the South Australian election, note the new post immediately below this one. For the rest of you:

• The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 56.5-43.5, in from 57-43 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 32.5% (down half), Labor 37.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one), One Nation 3.5% (down half) and United Australia Party on 1.5% (steady). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 in New South Wales (in from 59-41 for a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of around 7%), 52-48 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing of around 7.5%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (steady for a swing of around 9%) and 75-25 in Tasmania (a swing of 19%, with the inevitable proviso that this is from a tiny sample). The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%. The poll had a sample of 2261 and was conducted from February 14 to 23, long lead times before publication having become a feature of Roy Morgan’s polling of late.

• The Courier-Mail had results on federal politics from the same YouGov poll for which it published Queensland state voting intention results on Saturday, though this did not include straight results on voting intention. The poll found Scott Morrison at 41% approval and 47% disapproval in Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at 32% and 38%. Forty-three per cent thought a “Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government” would be better for Queensland compared with 39% for “an Albanese Labor government”. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1021.

• The Australian yesterday had follow-up questions from the weekend Newspoll on various questions of national security, which found 33% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition on handling the threat of China and 26% favouring Anthony Albanese and Labor, compared with 31% and 26% when the question was previously asked a month ago, with respective results of 30% and 24% on a similar question involving the threat of Russia. Seventy-four per cent felt China posed a threat to Australian national security compared with 18% who didn’t, while 64% held such a view in relation to Russia compared with 27% who didn’t.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,871 comments on “Federal polling: Morgan, Queensland YouGov, Newspoll extras”

Comments Page 34 of 38
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  2. There’ll be a very nice wreath from John the Bookie and the Worshipful Guild of Slimming Tablet
    Manufacturers may also send one.

  3. “The number of people finding resonance with the ‘freedom’ message of Clive Palmer’s United Australia party cannot be ignored”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/05/kellys-heroes-can-the-uaps-politics-of-anger-derail-the-australian-election

    Oh yes it bloody well can…. Spend $100M &get less than 4% of the vote & no one elected… Pawleeen should have been ignored as well.

    The press should just realise there is a part of the population that is plain stupid & should be ignored… you would if they tried to talk to you in the pub.

  4. Nostradamus says:
    Saturday, March 5, 2022 at 9:39 am

    On Warne:
    I’m French, so I had little interest in cricket, but I do understand that he was revered, and at the very least, respected, by the vast majority of the electorate, both in Australia and abroad.

    It could be a wonderful opportunity for the Prime Minister to make leverage out of an otherwise very sad event. Time to honour him with a state or even national funeral and call out those opposed on the other side (the “womyn’s” movement and other misandry-promoting wing nuts) for their wokist disrespect!

    I’m not French. But I have had no interest in cricket since the launch of the 1-day game. I have a very low threshold for boredom. Cricket became boring back there and right then. So much cricket: mass produced tedium. So much wallpaper: such cheap tv. I really can’t stand tv. I do enjoy the occasional glimpse of cricket in person…standing in the shade at the local field and watching the movement; the players in white on the green, the rituals of batting and bowling. That lasts 15 minutes. Long enough. Other things to do, always.

    Warne was a great player of something that has usually bored the life out of me. Really, his death means nothing much to me. I’m sure there will be many millions of Australians who likewise will feel untouched by the death of a great but flawed athlete with an excellent head for cricket, but very little insight into other more important things.

    I will note that his death has been attributed to a heart attack. Could be. But there’s been no autopsy. There could be any number of causes. I guess there will be an autopsy. There should be.

    Maybe Morrison will play dress-ups with Warne. The baggy green. A shiny ball. Sunscreen. Whites. Crowd-pleasing. Maybe he will exploit a “legend” for whatever it’s worth. Probably. I for one will not watch. Other things to do. As usual. Rituals are best left to the players. Maybe there will be a memorial service for him and Warne will be a public amusement right up to the last.

  8. d-money

    “There is a terrible stench around Dutton – it amazes me he is so lionised by the liberal party – is suspect he is vulnerable to having a very big crash over corruption once there is any form of ICAC.”

    I hope you’re correct but I’m a constituent of his and I don’t sense any fracturing of his support unfortunately. Just shows that even good and normally rational people can still choose to overlook even significant personal value flaws in individuals/parties when they want to.

  11. laughtong @ #1655 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 11:12 am

    south @ #1467 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 11:07 am

    I really hope sfm makes a big deal out of wqrnie. It’d be great to watch him try and toss a Cricket ball like Howard.

    Both State and Federal Govts have offered a State Funeral. Don’t know who wins in that situation.

    For a convicted drug cheat. Given a 1 year ban when the minimum was two years. Well he obviously followed the live fast, die quick mantra.

  12. There probably should be a coroners enquiry in Australia into Warne’s death to establish cause of death and dispel rumours. I know Thai officials will investigate but it is not uncommon for a death overseas to be investigated here.

  13. If you want dry political journalism, there’s several hundred different programs on the ABC that fulfill that goal. FriendlyJordies is trying to make an entertaining YouTube channel. It’s not really my thing – not that I don’t enjoy more irreverent political coverage, FJ just doesn’t quite hit my particular funny bone – but I can’t deny that his style allows him to reach a far bigger mainstream audience than most “serious” journalism would ever dream of.

    It really hit home to me just how effective FJ is when I was talking to some friends a while back:

    These guys are upper-middle-class IT professionals, early thirties, previously very unengaged with the political process, live in typical “aspirational” suburbs in Brisbane. Both voted Liberal in 2019, mainly due to the franking credits and end-the-weekend stuff (one’s father is a conservative self-funded retiree, the other a FWD enthusiast who spends much of his leisure time camping and boating.)

    I was pleasantly shocked a couple of months ago when I caught up with the retiree’s son, who now can’t stop talking about how we urgently need to fight climate change, how biased the Murdoch media is, and how corrupt John Barilaro and the NSW are. I’m quite certain he would not have been able to name a single person involved with NSW state politics a few years ago.

    The reason for his Damascus moment? FriendlyJordies, whose channel he had gotten into on the recommendation of the FWD enthusiast, who apparently also is now very concerned with those same issues. I seriously doubt either would would have ever started watching FJ’s videos if they were made in the style of the 7:30 Report.

  17. Cronus @ #1658 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 11:22 am

    d-money

    “There is a terrible stench around Dutton – it amazes me he is so lionised by the liberal party – is suspect he is vulnerable to having a very big crash over corruption once there is any form of ICAC.”

    I hope you’re correct but I’m a constituent of his and I don’t sense any fracturing of his support unfortunately. Just shows that even good and normally rational people can still choose to overlook even significant personal value flaws in individuals/parties when they want to.

    Eg Donald Trump.

  18. Asha…..and that is how votes are won, opinions changed. One vote at a time, and eventually, hopefully labor will transition from competative honourable losses, all the way to landslide victories

  19. Warnie like a lot of us had some flaws, as far as I’m aware one of them wasn’t bad mouthing people hours after they’d died. Unfortunately some of the moral majority around these parts can’t say the same.

  23. Seadog

    Warne used to bad mouth people while they were still alive … playing for Australia even.

    If people asked me two days ago what I thought of Warne I would have said exactly what I said a little while ago.

    He took money from an associate of a bookie and took banned drugs. And got away with it.

  27. Seadog @ #1669 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 12:09 pm

    Warnie like a lot of us had some flaws, as far as I’m aware one of them wasn’t bad mouthing people hours after they’d died. Unfortunately some of the moral majority around these parts can’t say the same.

    Oh it’s you again. You seem to have styled yourself as some of moral arbiter and truth teller. When you actually know sfa about the people here. Like most of us.

    Take, for example, your pathetic attempt to tell me that I know nothing about marine matters and that all my expertise has come via google. Wrong.

    My father was in the Navy.
    My grandfather was a Merchant Seaman.
    And my great grandfather was a captain of wheat luggers out of Esperance to Melbourne and Pyrmont in Sydney. So, let’s just say that I have an extensive layman’s understanding of the sea and marine matters. Not as good as some but not as bad as you tried to sneeringly make out. And the only reason I didn’t follow them on to the water was because I came through during that time when I became the first in my family to go to Uni.

    So, if you could do us all a favour and take your free advice about the Bludgers and stuff it up your jumper that would be appreciated.

  30. This piece from the Guardian blog raises an important issue.

    In case you missed yesterday evening’s post here, Steph Cooke, the NSW emergency services and resilience minister (and newly minted floods minister) was unable to join the daily emergency floods teleconference yesterday evening because she couldn’t get phone reception.

    That, of course, perfectly illustrated the telecommunications problems that still beset the flood-hit northern rivers region of her state.

    Cooke and premier Dominic Perrottet are still touring the region, including a visit to Lismore. Neither were on this morning’s call, but telecoms again featured prominently, with Labor MP Justine
    Elliot asking why one of the telcos wasn’t on the call.
    —————————————————–

    My friend lives in a fairly isolated beach village in Tassie. Their internet is dogdy at the best of times. Although we were able to chat online on Tuesday after the connections were restored, last night she she could not get a connection. They had a bushfire there not long ago, and it could be very important to get information to/fro visitors to the village.
    Thanks Tony and Malcolm for wrecking what should have been a great service in the NBN. As TV reception is also poor, everything they receive is via wifi. I am not even sure they can pick up much radio.

  31. C@t

    Exactly, like Donald Trump. I lived in the USA for more than a year on two occasions and travelled there umpteen times over the decades. I met so many wonderful individuals yet as a nation they continue to shock me. Of course I observed a real decline around 2000 that has only continued. Notwithstanding the extraordinary diversity between the states as well as the regions and the cities, it’s a true indictment of their society that so many could’ve supported Trump and more so that many still continue to do so. ‍♂️

  34. “FJ just doesn’t quite hit my particular funny bone – but I can’t deny that his style allows him to reach a far bigger mainstream audience than most “serious” journalism would ever dream of.”

    I would have ageed largely, and I probably would have dismissed him as a mildy entertaining guy who specialises in MAFS reactions. Well some of his recent stuff has been pretty impressive. I don’t know if the guys supposed to be doing the ‘real journalism’ are stupid, corrupt or constrained, but they should have been all over Dutton since paladin and they just haven’t been.

    Seriously he is in the frame for Australia’s best most independent investigative media outlet.

  35. Not sure why the Queen’s death would stop us mocking her and the bizzare ultra privledged and innately corrupt institution she has worked her whole life to protect from democracy.

  36. Cronus @ #1681 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 12:57 pm

    C@t

    Exactly, like Donald Trump. I lived in the USA for more than a year on two occasions and travelled there umpteen times over the decades. I met so many wonderful individuals yet as a nation they continue to shock me. Of course I observed a real decline around 2000 that has only continued. Notwithstanding the extraordinary diversity between the states as well as the regions and the cities, it’s a true indictment of their society that so many could’ve supported Trump and more so that many still continue to do so. ‍♂️

    I have a son that lives over there in Baltimore, Maryland right now. And he constantly tells me about all the lovely people he’s met. And I tell him to be aware that there are a lot of unlovely people there as well. He’s smart, he’s a survivor and he’s my son, so I trust him. Though I keep a watching brief over everything he does. Just to be sure.

    Also, you might be interested in watching this. I hope it leads to all of them circling the drain due to their hubris:
    https://youtu.be/i95SUQO39SQ

    Not only does the cream rise to the top but so does the scum.

  37. Notwithstanding that little of what he writes is ever worth reading, this effort by Chris Kenny in today’s Oz was a special gem.

    “Climate Catastrophists see opportunity in disaster”.

    Kenny might like to reflect on the plethora of flood, bushfire and cyclone disasters and their severity over the past 50 years and wonder why there has been so much opportunity?

  39. Taboos around speaking ill of the dead would seem to me to be social lubricant to prevent hot takes trampling over others’ need to grieve.

    So, sure, maybe it’s best in general not to rush in with all the criticism of a recently departed individual out of respect for those emotionally impacted by the death.

    Having said that there are certain individuals whom I will not be able to restrain myself from doing a jig in celebration at their passing – Rupert Murdoch being top of that list.

  40. WeWantPaul @ #1685 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 1:08 pm

    Not sure why the Queen’s death would stop us mocking her and the bizzare ultra privledged and inantely corrupt institution she has worked her whole life to protect from democracy.

    I actually think she’s a marvel – dedicating her life to an institution so uncompromisingly rigid and constraining, which I’m not convinced she prefers that way.

    Not being aware of any polling, I’d guess the people of the UK demand the continuance of the institution the way it is …?

  41. C@T

    Wise words and worth Keeping a watching brief too. Despite spending so much time there and enjoying it, I never felt entirely safe nor at home, it was always sufficiently different and not in a comfortable way. I forever felt as though I was living on movie set, as though anything could happen at any moment and as though nothing was quite real. And I’ve lived in some unusual countries and cities in my life in the Middle East and Africa.

  43. A full judgement on the Queen can only be made once her papers are released to see how much influence she has welded and what positions she took.

  45. ”
    Michelle Grattan looks at the potential for Covid to disrupt election campaigns. She uses the term “embattled” to describe the Morrison government.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coughing-now-is-better-than-spluttering-through-an-election-campaign-20220304-p5a1ly.html
    ”

    Only one still to call it”embattled “. If you look at Murdoch rags it is as if they are living in a difference universe. There is a implausible scientific theory that Parallel Universes exist. Assuming that for a second (Hey don’t ridicule me, there was even US TV series) that it is true, it is as if Murdoch from a parallel universe is publishing the Murdoch rags of this universe. 🙂

  48. Tom @ #1660 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 11:27 am

    laughtong @ #1655 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 11:12 am

    south @ #1467 Saturday, March 5th, 2022 – 11:07 am

    I really hope sfm makes a big deal out of wqrnie. It’d be great to watch him try and toss a Cricket ball like Howard.

    Both State and Federal Govts have offered a State Funeral. Don’t know who wins in that situation.

    For a convicted drug cheat. Given a 1 year ban when the minimum was two years. Well he obviously followed the live fast, die quick mantra.

    What a sick, sour, sad, stupefyingly depressing individual you must be.

    He was not ‘convicted’. He was found to have two diuretics in a urine sample.

    He lost a year of his career. He missed the World Cup, a lucrative stint with English county side Hampshire, a tour against the West Indies, two Tests against Bangladesh in Cairns and Darwin, and the next Australian summer tests against Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe. At least a million in current dollars.

    Not enough for vengeful, holier than thou, Tom though. Make them suffer, forever, that’s your motto.

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