Federal polling: Morgan, Queensland YouGov, Newspoll extras

Labor maintains a thumping lead in the latest fortnightly Roy Morgan, albeit that a fair bit has happened in the world since it was conducted.

For those of you following the South Australian election, note the new post immediately below this one. For the rest of you:

• The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 56.5-43.5, in from 57-43 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 32.5% (down half), Labor 37.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one), One Nation 3.5% (down half) and United Australia Party on 1.5% (steady). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 in New South Wales (in from 59-41 for a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of around 7%), 52-48 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing of around 7.5%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (steady for a swing of around 9%) and 75-25 in Tasmania (a swing of 19%, with the inevitable proviso that this is from a tiny sample). The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%. The poll had a sample of 2261 and was conducted from February 14 to 23, long lead times before publication having become a feature of Roy Morgan’s polling of late.

• The Courier-Mail had results on federal politics from the same YouGov poll for which it published Queensland state voting intention results on Saturday, though this did not include straight results on voting intention. The poll found Scott Morrison at 41% approval and 47% disapproval in Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at 32% and 38%. Forty-three per cent thought a “Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government” would be better for Queensland compared with 39% for “an Albanese Labor government”. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1021.

• The Australian yesterday had follow-up questions from the weekend Newspoll on various questions of national security, which found 33% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition on handling the threat of China and 26% favouring Anthony Albanese and Labor, compared with 31% and 26% when the question was previously asked a month ago, with respective results of 30% and 24% on a similar question involving the threat of Russia. Seventy-four per cent felt China posed a threat to Australian national security compared with 18% who didn’t, while 64% held such a view in relation to Russia compared with 27% who didn’t.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,871 comments on “Federal polling: Morgan, Queensland YouGov, Newspoll extras”

Comments Page 1 of 38
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  1. On that Australian poll highlighted above , all it showed was that Coalition voters are more likely to take a partisan approach to National security than Labor voters if you look at it carefully instead of focusing on the headline numbers the Australian’s political editor was want to highlight.

    41% were undecided or thought either would handle the Chinese threat to Australian security equally well. And 46% were undecided or thought either could handle the Russian threat equally well.

    If either was 50 percent Coalition, 30 percent Labor and 20 percent bipartisan or undecided Scomo would have something to crow about. To me it is just clutching at straws to try to turn attention away from the third devastating GENERAL Newspoll in a row.

  2. I thought Morrison sounded a bit sinusey and congested at his Monday presser.

    No mask. Didn’t give a shit about those around him.

  3. The Prime Minister held a joint news conference in Canberra on Tuesday alongside Defence Minister Peter Dutton, who has previously had the virus.

    That news conference followed what he said was a “rather lengthy” meeting of the National Security Committee of Cabinet.

    On Monday he was in Brisbane responding to the floods where he held “extensive discussions” with the city’s Lord Mayor.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-tests-positive-for-covid-19-20220301-p5a0tx.html

    Morrison the superspreader!

  4. Confessions @ #3 Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 – 5:09 am

    The Prime Minister held a joint news conference in Canberra on Tuesday alongside Defence Minister Peter Dutton, who has previously had the virus.

    That news conference followed what he said was a “rather lengthy” meeting of the National Security Committee of Cabinet.

    On Monday he was in Brisbane responding to the floods where he held “extensive discussions” with the city’s Lord Mayor.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-tests-positive-for-covid-19-20220301-p5a0tx.html

    Morrison the superspreader!

    What day was he in SA ignoring the Premier?

  5. Grime:

    Not sure, but he was with the Nauru president yesterday too. No mask or physical distancing.

    Scott Morrison@ScottMorrisonMP·
    11h
    Lovely to meet my good friend President Lionel Aingimea in Sydney today to reinforce strong Australia-Nauru ties, resilient infrastructure, Pacific Islands Forum unity and Ukraine’s sovereignty. The Pacific family is stronger together.

  6. He was with Marshall on Friday and on Sunday attended a church service with what appears to be a large congregation. No masks, no physical distancing. He very likely would’ve been infectious at that point.

    Scott Morrison (ScoMo)
    ·
    Australia stands with Ukraine and our Australian Ukrainian community. Today Jenny and I were pleased to join with the Australian Ukrainian community for their service at St Andrews Ukrainian Church at Lidcombe to pray for the people of Ukraine and to reassure them of the support of the entire Australian community.

    https://www.facebook.com/scottmorrisonmp/posts/512211266940907

  9. Isn’t this the 2nd time Morrison has supposedly got the corona virus, it seems the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units putting the focus on Morrison instead of the flood victims

  12. Good morning. Please pray for the speedy recovery of the Prime Minister so he can resume campaigning for the Coalition’s re-election this year. God bless you all who are worthy. Amen.

  13. Morning all. Best wishes BK, hope you had a good sleep.

    The national disaster agency is trying to maintain the fiction that excluding Lismore from flood defence funding was some king of technical decision and not a ministerial one! But there is reference to “priority LGAs”. The agency director is Shane Stone, ex NT CLP leader!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/disaster-agency-defends-not-listing-lismore-as-flooding-priority-area-for-funding

  14. Tonight I tested positive to COVID-19.

    I am experiencing flu-like symptoms and will be recovering over the next week.

    I had tested myself daily since Sunday, including this morning, with all tests returning a negative result.

    I took a further test this evening after developing a fever late today. The test was inconclusive so I took a PCR test tonight which returned a positive result late this evening.

    I am continuing to follow health guidelines and am isolating at home in Sydney.

    Jenny and the girls have thankfully tested negative but will isolate for seven days at home as close contacts.

    While in isolation I will continue to discharge all my responsibilities as Prime Minister, including virtually chairing meetings of the National Security and Expenditure Review Committees of Cabinet, focusing on our emergency response to the devastating floods in Queensland and New South Wales, and ensuring we stand with each and every one of the affected communities both now and as the waters eventually recede.

    I will also be focused on our urgent response to the tragedy unfolding in the Ukraine and Russia’s senseless aggression, staying in regular contact with our security and intelligence officials and our international partners, as well as working with the Treasurer to finalise the Budget.

    https://www.pm.gov.au/media/media-statement-7

  15. Cronus

    Reply to Socrates

    Let’s hope the good folk of Lismore are well versed in and supportive of those technicalities outlined by Agency Director Shane Stone ….. but I suspect they won’t be. How about the Agency just reconsider their initial stupidity (it is one of the most flood prone areas in Australia after all) and disperse funding ASAP.

    Reply to Sprocket

    So Morrison has covid, I’m sure the National Security Committee will be delighted as well. I assume they’ll now be hitting the RATs shortly as well at a time during which the committee needs to be at its healthiest.

  17. Re No Fly-zone

    White House press secretary Jen Psaki seemed on Monday, though, to stop somewhat short of completely ruling it out. She instead detailed the reasons it is best to be avoided:

    PETER ALEXANDER: On military, is there any way in which the U.S. would support a no-fly zone over Ukraine?

    PSAKI: Well, here’s what important for everybody to know about a no-fly zone: What that would require is implementation by the U.S. military. It would essentially mean the U.S. military would be shooting down planes – Russian planes. That is definitely escalatory. That would potentially put us into a place where we’re in a military conflict with Russia. That is not something the president wants to do.

    KRISTEN WELKER: So, that’s a no on that.

    PSAKI: Those are all the reasons why that’s not a good idea.

    Unfortunately BoJo wasn’t clever enough to leave options open…..

    In a press conference earlier today, Boris Johnson responded to a Ukrainian journalist’s tearful plea for no-fly zones. The prime minister said that he was “acutely aware” that the U.K. government couldn’t give Ukrainians everything they wanted. He said:

    When you talk about the no-fly zone, as I’ve said to [Ukrainian President] Volodymyr Zelensky, I think a couple of times, unfortunately the implication of that is the UK would be engaged in shooting down Russian planes, would be engaged in direct combat with Russia — that’s not something we can do.

    Surely it’s smarter to keep answer ambiguous?

  18. My recollection is that poster Quoll lives in the Northern Rivers area. So I hope that she and her family are safe and well at this terrible time.

  20. Nostradamus,

    Good morning. Please pray for the speedy recovery of the Prime Minister so he can resume campaigning for the Coalition’s re-election this year. God bless you all who are worthy. Amen.

    Rack off Edwina, you and your mates (imaginary friends Wayne and Nostradamus).

  21. Cronus

    “The Prime Minister was said to be feeling under the weather.
    Earlier in the day, he had coughed repeatedly while holding a press conference in Canberra. Mr Morrison was understood to have tested negative for COVID-19 on the day”

    Was this an attempt by Morrison to take out an unsupportive press corp? This will slow down his faux electioneering and offers Albo an opportunity to make hay while the sun shines (albeit rarely around these parts recently) and to further improve his profile.

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/scott-morrison-contracts-covid-19-reports-20220301-p5a0tz

  22. From a wild and woolly Central Coast, this is your Mini Me Dawn Patrol. 🙂

    Scott Morrison has the Rona! Clive Palmer copy cat 😉
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-scott-morrison-tests-positive-for-covid-19-20220301-p5a0tx.html

    Speaking of Clive Palmer. Unions have signalled they will campaign on Clive Palmer’s record as a boss in a bid to urge working people not to support the United Australia Party at the election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/unions-to-highlight-clive-palmers-track-record-as-an-employer-in-federal-election-campaign

    Labor has questioned whether Peter Dutton’s GoFundMe page in support of flood-affected communities may have breached Queensland fundraising laws, where individuals are required to seek state government approval for any one-off fundraising appeal.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/labor-questions-whether-peter-duttons-fundraiser-breaches-queensland-laws

    In NSW the Liberal State executive is set to weigh up a push for fast-tracked plebiscites in challenged seats, including those of ministers Sussan Ley and Alex Hawke.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/nsw-liberals-to-consider-fresh-preselection-plan-to-avoid-federal-intervention

    Unsurprisingly Australian online anti-vaccine groups switch to Putin praise and Ukraine conspiracies.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/australias-anti-vaccine-groups-switch-focus-to-putin-praise-and-ukraine-conspiracies

    The Guardian view on Europe versus Putin: a strategic journey without maps.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/01/the-guardian-view-on-europe-versus-putin-a-strategic-journey-without-maps

    David Crowe reports that the federal government is including pandemic payments in its claims that it has spent big on ‘Disaster Relief’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fudged-has-the-federal-government-spent-17b-on-disaster-relief-20220301-p5a0qz.html

    Shane Wright reports that Poverty fell during first year of COVID but has now increased. Funny that.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/poverty-fell-through-the-first-year-of-covid-and-then-increased-20220301-p5a0jd.html

    Labor’s aged care spokeswoman Clare O’Neil has described a $2 billion wage rise workers in the embattled sector are seeking as a matter of justice, as Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese remains under union pressure to commit to the increase.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-matter-of-justice-labor-s-o-neil-backs-aged-care-wage-hike-20220301-p5a0ox.html

    David Crowe reports the procession of Russian tanks spurred Australia to ramp up its weapons pledge for Ukraine.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/procession-of-tanks-spurred-australia-to-ramp-up-weapons-pledge-for-ukraine-20220301-p5a0qv.html

    In news that will surprise no one Shane Wright and Katina Curtis report a spendathon of more than $1 billion a week is expected in the run-up to the budget, even before Prime Minister Scott Morrison pulls the trigger for the May federal election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/voters-brace-for-1-billion-a-week-spendathon-in-budget-lead-up-20220225-p59zo2.html

    Lucy Cormack and Michael Koziol tell us about the flood fears for city fringe as the savage storm cell heads toward Sydney.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/flood-fears-for-city-fringe-as-savage-storm-cell-heads-toward-sydney-20220301-p5a0sg.html

    In other flood-related news NSW SES is directing people who live on Ballina Island (the centre of town) to evacuate to a safe location.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-queensland-floods-live-updates-lismore-brisbane-and-ballina-residents-evacuated-ses-make-over-1000-rescues-sydney-on-high-alert-for-torrential-rain-across-city-20220301-p5a0rb.html

    Nick O’Malley analyses the floods and says it’s slower than a cyclone but the east coast low can be deadly too.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/it-s-slower-than-a-cyclone-but-the-east-coast-low-can-be-deadly-too-20220301-p5a0rq.html

    Ross Gittins opines that both sides of politics are leading us to a policy-free federal election campaign at a time when we have so many problems we should be debating.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-climate-change-changes-the-politicians-don-t-want-to-talk-about-20220301-p5a0mj.html

    Labor leader Anthony Albanese has extended his best wishes to Prime Minister Scott Morrison after the leader of the country revealed he’d tested positive for COVID-19. This link also contains the war news for today, which is horrible:
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-russia-ukraine-war-spills-into-seventh-straight-day-of-conflict-as-more-explosions-reported-in-kyiv-nsw-queensland-floods-worsen-as-sydney-braces-for-torrential-rain-20220301-p5a0qy.html

    Chris Uhlmann has another contentious column asking, democracies vs despots: How should the world be run?
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/democracies-vs-despots-how-should-the-world-be-run-20220301-p5a0k2.html

    Phil Lutton reports that Russian athletes will be collateral damage of the war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/sins-of-the-fatherland-russian-athletes-will-be-collateral-damage-20220301-p5a0ol.html

    Elizabeth Knight reports that Crown will soon pay the real cost of money laundering.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crown-will-soon-pay-the-real-cost-of-money-laundering-20220301-p5a0qm.html

    The Queen is back on deck.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/queen-resumes-work-after-recovering-from-covid-19-20220302-p5a0u4.html

    Sorry everyone. That’s where I’ll have to end things for today. My mouse just died from falling on the wooden floor too many times and trying to continue using the track pad on my laptop is almost impossible. 😳

  32. Greensborough Growler @ Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:07 am

    PMO statement is that Morrison shall discharge duties of PM. I posit that Morrison will not relinquish any control voluntarily before the election.

  35. ‘ The biggest news of today—without question—is three European countries that had planned to send jets to Ukraine backtracking and now refusing to do so.

    The reason there’s a 40-mile-long Russian convoy on the way to Kyiv is that Ukraine lacks sufficient air presence to strike it.
    I don’t think anyone in the world can explain why European nations will send small arms to Ukraine but not planes. If the line of giving offensive military weapons to Ukraine has already been crossed—and apparently it has—why not send the weapons that are most desperately needed?

    And before you say that military aircraft are considerably more expensive than small arms—which of course they are—European nations are sending such an enormous amount of money to Ukraine to ensure that it doesn’t fall that an argument about expense simply makes no sense anymore.

    Media reports that 70 Ukrainian pilots made the dangerous trek to Poland to pick up jets, only to return empty-handed. I’d ask global media to find out why jets that were promised are now not being given—and how this was randomly determined to be a line that could not be crossed.
    In the coming days, all media will be talking about are how many Ukrainian soldiers/civilians have been killed by airstrikes Ukraine couldn’t stop because it couldn’t get planes in the air to get to the locations the strikes originated. So maybe cover the jet-refusal story *now*?’
    -Seth Abrahamson

  38. Quasar says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:26 am

    ‘ The biggest news of today—without question—is three European countries that had planned to send jets to Ukraine backtracking and now refusing to do so.

    The reason there’s a 40-mile-long Russian convoy on the way to Kyiv is that Ukraine lacks sufficient air presence to strike it.
    ….’
    ————————————-
    There is a second reason for that untroubled convoy – most likely a Ukrainian cock-up. The Ukraine Army is totally elsewhere.

  39. Griff,

    Makes you wonder that he needs to isolate and he’s crook. Yet, he’ll fully discharge his duties like there is nothing wrong. No one in his inner circle or family seems to be afflicted and he’s been travelling around meeting dignataries and campaigning openly.

    Maybe he needs to work on NSW pre-selection problems and needs to be out of public sight for a few days.

  42. GG
    1. They know that Joyce is 100% toxic once he moves beyond the Hyuk Hyuk line.
    2. Morrison has a fetish for looking in control.
    3. Morrison must have thought Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was the best thing since sliced bread. But his run of shit luck is not to be broken so easily. Just when he had an international security crisis to blather about he has to hunker in the bunker. Once again he doesn’t hold a hose.

  44. ‘ltep says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:33 am

    Loving the attempts to politicise a COVID diagnosis. Australian politics sure doesn’t fail to disappoint.’
    —————————————————————-
    Next you will be telling us that attempts to politicize the Greens Disarmament Policy are…

    Remind me. When has a politician’s illness not been political?

  45. ltep,

    It’s not as if Morrison hasn’t lied to us before.

    How about an Emergency Disaster Relief Fund with $4.8bill that doesn’t spend money on an Emergency Disaster flood relief. Is that politicising human tragedy or pointing out the facts?

  46. Quasar says:
    Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:26 am
    …
    In the coming days, all media will be talking about are how many Ukrainian soldiers/civilians have been killed by airstrikes Ukraine couldn’t stop because it couldn’t get planes in the air to get to the locations the strikes originated. So maybe cover the jet-refusal story *now*?’
    -Seth Abrahamson’
    ———————————
    Note the framing here. What is it about Westerners that they so routinely get things arse around, thereby white anting the West?

    What Abrahamson should be writing is this: ‘The reason Ukrainian soldiers/civilians are being killed by airstrikes is because Putin is ordering the airstrikes.’

    The pertinent fact here is that Ukrainian pilots flying warplanes from Polish airfields is an act of war by Poland. It would have justified Putin ordering his missile forces to crater Polish airfields. I was mildly surprised when I first saw this story. I am not at all surprised that the warplane donors have changed their minds.

  47. Boerwar

    Remind me. When has a politician’s illness not been political?

    And in this case it is ‘compulsory’ given that the prick has sought to politicise The Plague from Day 1.

  49. Morrison always disappears during a crisis. Whatever the reason.

    Frankly the way in which he together with his minister for aged care have handled the sector, will be what does him in.

    The covid deaths every day come from that sector in the main.

    The limit on visits for family that continue to this day as well as the shortage of staff is not going unnoticed.

    Albo and co have an opportunity to implement effective reforms in the sector if they win govt.

    I will be watching this space keenly.

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