For those of you following the South Australian election, note the new post immediately below this one. For the rest of you:
• The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan poll has Labor leading 56.5-43.5, in from 57-43 last time, from primary votes of Coalition 32.5% (down half), Labor 37.5% (down one), Greens 12.5% (up one), One Nation 3.5% (down half) and United Australia Party on 1.5% (steady). The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 56.5-43.5 in New South Wales (in from 59-41 for a swing of around 9%), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 57.5-42.5 for a swing of around 7%), 52-48 in Western Australia (in from 53.5-46.5 for a swing of around 7.5%), 59.5-40.5 in South Australia (steady for a swing of around 9%) and 75-25 in Tasmania (a swing of 19%, with the inevitable proviso that this is from a tiny sample). The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%. The poll had a sample of 2261 and was conducted from February 14 to 23, long lead times before publication having become a feature of Roy Morgan’s polling of late.
• The Courier-Mail had results on federal politics from the same YouGov poll for which it published Queensland state voting intention results on Saturday, though this did not include straight results on voting intention. The poll found Scott Morrison at 41% approval and 47% disapproval in Queensland, with Anthony Albanese at 32% and 38%. Forty-three per cent thought a “Morrison Liberal-National Coalition government” would be better for Queensland compared with 39% for “an Albanese Labor government”. The poll was conducted February 18 to 23 from a sample of 1021.
• The Australian yesterday had follow-up questions from the weekend Newspoll on various questions of national security, which found 33% favouring Scott Morrison and the Coalition on handling the threat of China and 26% favouring Anthony Albanese and Labor, compared with 31% and 26% when the question was previously asked a month ago, with respective results of 30% and 24% on a similar question involving the threat of Russia. Seventy-four per cent felt China posed a threat to Australian national security compared with 18% who didn’t, while 64% held such a view in relation to Russia compared with 27% who didn’t.
Boerwar
Putin is at his most dangerous now. He together with his oligarchs and Russia are being isolated from the majority of the world.
The invasion has not gone as expected to date.
He may win the battle to take over Ukraine, but ultimately lose the war.
Russians are going to turn against him as the economy tanks further and commodities become more scarce.
Putin will be remembered for exactly what he is. An evil,
Murderous thug who has never given a shit about his own people.
One of the things Trump used to say often throughout his presidency, including during impeachment.
Wtte.
Russia russsia Russia, that is all the dems and the lame stream Media want to talk about.
I’ve been hoping all along that when both Trump and Putin lose their influence and power, the extent of the treachery will become exposed.
And the notion that Qanon was just a fringe movement on the internet cooked up by gamers, should also be exposed for what it really was.
A psyop.
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:43 am
Boerwar
Remind me. When has a politician’s illness not been political?
And in this case it is ‘compulsory’ given that the prick has sought to politicise The Plague from Day 1.’
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Exactemundo
As mentioned last night, finally some rain in my neck of woods.
I checked bom to see the radar etc and looked at the weather for Sydney today.
Rain between 150 to 200 mm!!!!
Do beautiful photographs of beautiful locations make a difference to conservation outcomes?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-02/abrolhos-island-photographer-coral-reef-protection-/100871418
‘Victoria says:
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 8:52 am
Boerwar
Putin is at his most dangerous now.
…’
—————————
Agree. Outcome somewhat uncertain. Home Front rocky. United his enemies like never before.
Biden willl be delivering state of the union address later today
Morrison most likely is ill but not ill enough to hand over the resins to the idiotic Barnaby Joyce.
“The result in Queensland is 50-50, compared with 51.5-48.5 to Labor last time, for a swing of around 8.5%.”….
That remains a very good result for the ALP. According to Green’s electoral pendulum, an 8.5% swing to the ALP in Qld means a win of 8 additional seats by the ALP. That, alone, would win the election for Labor. Seats won in other states would just increase their majority, whereas further seats lost by the Coalition to Independents would further decrease their minority.
So far so good…. 🙂
Wait, the PM tests daily for Covid? Or was he doing so because he’d felt unwell for a few days? It’s not entirely clear from his statement.
“BK says:
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 9:04 am
Morrison most likely is ill but not ill enough to hand over the resins to the idiotic Barnaby Joyce.”
Stress decreases the capacity of your immune system to operate effectively. Scomocchio is fully immunised…. but he must be under massive stress…. I can only wonder why?… 🙂
Australian Cartoons:
Cathy Wilcox:
Glen Le Livre:
Golding:
David Rowe:
David Pope:
Leak:
Spooner:
UK Cartoons:
South Africa:
From the US:
Victoria has reported a further 28 COVID-19 deaths.
The state reported 7,126 new infections, taking the total number of active cases to 41,162.
There are 264 COVID-19 patients in Victorian hospitals, an increase on Tuesday’s figure of 255.
Of those in hospital, 37 are in intensive care and five are on ventilators.
About 59 per cent of Victorian adults have now received three vaccine doses and 94 per cent of those aged 12 and older have received at least two.
The Shovel
@TheShovel
· 14h
The PM has committed $350 billion to build a 300 cubit-long wooden ark by 2045
–
Here is the template model. The problem is the instruction manual for this one is in French.
–
H
Boerwar
Yes. Putin had not counted on that. He resides in a bubble of his own making with yes men all around him.
He believed that the disinformation war on social media together with having GOP and right wing media in the USA on his side would be enough.
Not forgetting believing the narrative that Biden was a senile old man hunkered down in his own bunker to keep away from getting covid during this pandemic.
Jan 6 insurrection and the censuring of Liz Cheney by their own party, also gave Putin confidence.
Also the fact that Trump is still consequential in the party, with all the support within and without regarding the lie that the election was stolen.
Trump has been a very useful servant for Putin, and he thought it was enough to make his long planned moves.
He didn’t count on senile Biden working quietly behind the scenes to garner support for this invasion.
Putin is as angry as heck.
Morrison wants to harvest the votes of these traitors.
Apparently the cookers believe the flooding has been orchestrated by the government in order to stop them protesting.
It’s times like this that the true dangers of the Coalition agreement become more obvious. Prime Minister sick, while Australia floods and the largest war Europe has seen since WW2.
For the good of the nation, Barnaby Joyce should resign as Deputy Prime Minister. He can remain as leader of the Nationals – there’s no real requirement that the two positions be linked.
Australia needs a sober hand at the wheel. Frydenburg should be the DPM.
This is more important than individuals’ egos, more important than politics.
PhoenixRed
Cases are rising again. Now that masks are off. Sigh…….
BK @ #59 Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 – 6:04 am
So he’s not dead then.
Zoomster
The cookers are beyond cooked. They need serious psychological help.
Just the fact that they believe Putin and Trump are the good guys, tells you they are very unwell,
Net satisfaction with Scomocchio is going down and downer….
Preferred PM vote is going down and downer….
2PP for the Coalition is going down and downer…
Primary vote for the Coalition is going down and downer…
But hey, a “miracle” is coming…..
Yeah, good luck!…. 🙂
Alpha zero
Thanks for today’s cartoons!
“While in isolation I will continue to discharge all my responsibilities as Prime Minister”
Oh, please don’t Schomo. You haven’t done it for three years, why start now ?
Burgey
“It’s not entirely clear from his statement.”
Morrison has consistently been unclear.
57% of the population would need a second opinion regarding any statement from Morrison.
Typically Morrison avoiding the consequences enabling Morrison to “bolt” before facing the voters.
Absolutely nothing from Morrison is out of bounds.
Victoriasays: Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 9:11 am
PhoenixRed
Cases are rising again. Now that masks are off. Sigh…….
…………………………………………………………
Yep people like Mitchel and Guy with their *bitch a day* just makes the foot taken off the brake for political gain – and so we keep making the same mistakes again and again and expect a different result …….and soon heading into cooler weather
PhoenixRed
I understand that masks are annoying after a while. But it is a very effective way of minimising spread of the virus.
I will continue to wear a mask whilst I am in public.
NSW :
Another five people have died with COVID in the state.
There are 1,072 cases in hospital, 45 of those in ICU.
There were 10,650 new cases from RAT and PCR tests.
What time do people think we’ll get the first photos of Morrison “working” in isolation?
Victoriasays: Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 9:20 am
PhoenixRed
I understand that masks are annoying after a while. But it is a very effective way of minimising spread of the virus.
I will continue to wear a mask whilst I am in public.
************************************
Same here Victoria – if people want to let their defences down, then so be it – but I am trying to avoid getting caught out as much as possible
Elmer_Fudd at 9:16 am
It all depends on what definition you use.
verb
/dɪsˈtʃɑːdʒ/ (of an orifice or diseased tissue) emit (pus or other liquid).
Steve777 @ #28 Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 – 7:02 am
That would be entirely up to Putin. Doesn’t change the fact that Ukraine really deserves a no-fly zone.
Also kinda looks like your WW3 would be the entire world vs. Russia. Or even just the handful of troops they’ve put in Ukraine. Should be a short one. 🙂
Photos on twitter of long queues in Russia of people finding they can’t use Apple Pay etc when buying train tickets, etc.
‘Apple Pay and Google Pay no longer work on Moscow’s metro system, leading to long queues as people fumble about for cash
Visa and others have sanctioned Russia so the credit cards aren’t working. That’s why people are rushing to get cash out of the banks this week.
Apple has removed (sanctioned) Russian Banks from its list of supported Banks.’-twitter
Some of those cartoons are remarkable, IMO.
The war is only a week old and the premise of the cartoons is a certain sort of triumphalism about Putin losing.
While there are huge uncertainties, the following outcomes are, IMO, more likely than not:
1. Ukraine’s two largest cities fall.
2. The Ukraine Government is killed, dispersed or forced out of the country.
3. The Ukraine Army is immobilized, destroyed or dispersed.
What happens after that is not at all clear to me but there are several options for Putin.
1. He splits Ukraine into Russian/Ukrainian ethnic langauage lines. He sets up two puppet governments, one based on Kharkiv, the other on Kyiv. IMO, the one in Kharkiv is likely to be able to set up some sort of nation state cohesion. IMO, the one based in Kyiv is likely to run into severe difficulties.
2. He annexes enough of Ukraine to turn the Sea of Azov into an inland Russian sea, carves off some more for the two pygmy statelets. These would, IMO, become accepted facts on the ground like Putin’s grab of the Crimea.
3. He formally recognizes the Republic of Transnistria. This will throw the EU and NATO into a tizz and would be a useful unicorn.
One possible stochastic event is that Putin is assassinated. He is suitably paranoid and someone is going to have to find a long table knife to do the trick.
Meanwhile the EU has accepted Ukraine’s application to join the EU.
Putin is going to be even more pissed.
Alpha Zero,
Thanks for that bumper edition of cartoons.
I can see why the Russians want to take this site down.
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap
Victoria
That is symbolic at this stage. There is no way under the current conditions that the EU and Ukraine can carry out the sorts of negotiations that go with the application succeeding.
Rossmcgsays:
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 at 9:24 am
What time do people think we’ll get the first photos of Morrison “working” in isolation?
—
Here is the poor tech man after spending 4 hours trying to teach SfM how to send an email so he can work from home
https://i.ibb.co/FY7NTv5/Man-working-from-home-feeling-stressed.webp
My brother is very much one of these conspiracy nuts. Although not formally diagnosed with any specific mental health condition he is on a disability support pension for mental health reasons.
The quick pivot from Covid being nothing more than a minor head cold being used a plot to take away freedoms (while somehow simultaneously being a CIA and CDC operation headed by Anthony Fauci to depopulate the world under some plot called Agenda 21) to Putin being the savior of the world by attacking Ukraine to deal with the Nazi’s and pedophiles defied the laws of physics.
These groups need to be dealt with, they are preying on the vulnerable in society. If you listen to the Canberra cookers I’d say the vast majority have Mental Health issues. These theories don’t stand up to even a modicum of critical thinking, unfortunately these impressionable victims don’t have the ability to apply critical thinking. They believe these theories like a pentecostal belief that Dog will make them rich.
I received a link yesterday from my brother linking to a conspiracy that the “elites” are killing naturopaths because they know Covid can be cured with Natural remedies. How are they being killed you say? By being secretly infected with a deadly disease.
Elmer
Classic
It’s one thing to declare a no fly zone and very different thing to enforce it, especially considering the Ukraine is right next to the entire Russian air force.
We are also seeing a shift in Omicron sub variants from BA.1 to BA.2 (and to a lesser extent, BA1.1).
Need access to AUSTRAKKA for the good oil though.
Golden Smaug
Sorry about your brother.
Unfortunately he is one of many. Whilst here in Australia, the percentage of people who have fallen down the rabbit hole is not high.
In the USA for eg, millions of people now believe in the tenets of Qanon.
Politicians and msm keep saying it is not important to know who actually is behind Qanon. It is more important to deal with the fallout.
I disagree. Qanon was a psyop. Who are behind it, is very instrumental. It needs to be exposed.
This psyop is part of why the world is now at this juncture. It is no co incidence.
Fancy believing Putin and Trump are the saviours of the world.
These people have been systematically and deliberately brainwashed.
Boerwar
Re “1. He splits Ukraine into Russian/Ukrainian ethnic langauage lines. ” .Check out the map from the 2010 Ukraine election. A bigly split along basically ethnic lines.
a r @ #83 Wednesday, March 2nd, 2022 – 8:58 am
Short. Maybe. Localised?
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-holds-drills-nuclear-subs-land-based-missiles-83180974
When you corner a lion you either offer it an escape route or get ready for a mess.
I agree with BW. The war isnt going to plan for Putin but if he stays in power he will shortly take control of several important cities and regions. Zelenskyy is in real imminent danger – death or capture. I am less certain on the ability for Russia to secure their gains and stabilise the area. He is in a rush. If there is continued resistance the human rights violations will increase. Like in Germany at the closing of WW2, Russia have elements in their army and leadership that know no moral boundaries.
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Christo Grozev
@christogrozev
Incredible: Belarus state TV presents explosion at Freedom Square in Kharkiv as “a provocation by the Ukrainian nazis”, and says “more and more Ukrainian soldiers are refusing to fight”. This is straight out of nazi propaganda handbooks during WW2.
8:21 AM · Mar 2, 2022·Twitter Web App
Sure. But care here in how far to take that analysis. Yes, there is an ethnic divide. However that isnt an election between Ukraine and Russia. Zelenskyy is from the Russian speaking east and won well across the country.
Thanks C@t, and AZ.
Lithuania’s former president Dalia Grybauskaite on Putin’s mental health. She was president of Lithuania during Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
(clip dates from Feb 28)
https://youtu.be/1-dvun-CVGI