The Willoughby count has been updated with 9673 postals on the primary vote, and while these have leaned less heavily to the Liberals than postals did in 2019, they suggest Tim James’ lead is likely to widen from here rather than narrow. James has added 4357 primary votes, or 45.0% compared with 43.4% of all either votes, while Penn has gained 2651, or 27.4% compared with 32.2%.
Counting has completed in Willoughby for what I expect will be all votes other than postals, leaving Tim James on 8365 (51.76%) to Larissa Penn’s 7797 (48.24%), with 2085 votes having exhausted. The total of 18,247 votes counted is put in the shade by the 25,071 postal votes that have now been received, which will be supplemented by a small number over the next week, counting of which will finally begin on Saturday.
I’m bumping this thread back to the top of the page because the NSWEC is conducting a new two-candidate preferred count in Willoughby between the actual leading candidates, Liberal Tim James and independent Larissa Penn, having conducted what proved to be a superfluous Liberal-versus-Greens count on the night. With results reported from 14 out of 24 booths, preferences are flowing heavily enough against the Liberals (10.2% to Liberal, 42.7% to independent and 47.1% exhausted) to perhaps make James nervous. The numbers are available at the NSWEC website – they are not being published to the media feed unfortunately, so my own results display doesn’t show them. James presently leads 51.4-48.6, which increases to 51.9-48.1 if the preference flow so far is projected across the yet-to-report booths.
That leaves, so far, 18,033 postal votes that have been received, which is more than the sum of the votes so far counted with many more still to arrive, none of which will be counted before the weekend. Ordinarily I would point to the fact that Gladys Berejiklian polled 66.5% of postals in 2019 compared with 57.6% of election day and pre-poll votes and deem the door still closed. But that was from a total of a mere 2269, in contrast to the present extraordinary circumstance where postal ballots were sent to every enrolled voter in the electorate. It may be that, as in the United States, that pool of postal voters, which is traditionally older and more conservative, is now dominated by those most concerned about COVID-19.
For more on the by-elections, below is a discussion between myself and Ben Raue which was recorded on Monday afternoon:
Counting closed last night with quite a bit of the pre-poll vote still unreported – I’m unclear as to whether that will be finished off today or tomorrow. In the very unusual circumstances of these by-elections, there will then be very little to report for a full week, since counting of the unprecedentedly large number of postal votes will not start for another week, as was explained here. There may be a few other types of vote added to the count (absents, provisionals and telephone voting), but these will be few in number.
Election night commentary
10.40pm. A second pre-poll booth from Strathfield, Strathfield EM Office (as distinct from Strathfield EVC), is much more favourable for Labor than the first — a 10.7% swing for compared with 4.8% against — but with less than a quarter as many votes.
10.31pm. Two more pre-polls, Bungendore and Jerrabomberra, are in from Monaro on both primary and two-party — Jerrambomerra was bang on the 7.9% election day swing, Bungendore was 13.3% but with fewer votes.
10.27pm. The Strathfield pre-poll is now in on two-party, and it was a 4.8% swing against Labor, such that there is now a 1.4% swing against them in the seat overall.
10.24pm. Primary votes from the Narooma pre-poll centre, the second in Bega out of six, are much the same in swing terms as the election day results, discouraging the notion of such disparity between them as might jeopardise Labor’s substantial lead.
10.01pm. The last of the Willoughby pre-polls is in on the primary vote, and contrary to what I suggested earlier, the Liberals have suffered identical 15% primary vote swings on election day votes and pre-polls.
9.43pm. The first pre-poll result from Strathfield, primary votes from the Strathfield booth, are quite bad for Labor: down 9.8% on the primary vote compared with 4.3% on election day.
9.32pm. Queanbeyan pre-poll in on two-party: 3.7% swing to Labor compared with 7.9% on election day.
9.24pm. A second pre-poll booth, Queanbeyan, is in on the primary vote in Monaro, recording a swing against the Nationals slightly below the election day results.
8.49pm. The first pre-poll booth from Bega, Bermagui, is in. My results page says it has swung no different from the election day booths, but this is the one pre-poll in the seat that was not in use in 2019 so I’d advise some caution. Nonetheless, Labor candidate Michael Holland is claiming victory as I speak. Regarding the previous entry below, it seems my perception of a weak result for the Liberals in pre-polls in Willoughby is to do with the way I’ve calculated the historic results, which was a necessarily imperfect process. The remaining pre-poll booth there, North Willoughby, will presumably tell a different story.
8.16pm. A second pre-poll booth is in from Willoughby, which makes two out of three, and I’m now more confident that both show a drop in the Liberal Party vote similar to the election day booths, and pre-polls are not in fact transforming the result here. So I remain curious as to where Zimmerman got his estimate of a 61-39 result.
8.07pm. The first pre-poll booth from Willoughby, and the second overall, is Willoughby EM Office – my swing figure says it’s not much different from the election day results, contrary to what we were hearing from Trent Zimmerman. However, my historic figures for pre-poll booths in the city seats are dubious because several new booths were added, and discretion was needed in dividing up the 2019 votes.
7.59pm. All election day votes are in from Strathfield now on both primary and two-party, and with the usual caveat added about election day votes only, the lack of any swing is at least a partial qualification to the picture of a night for triumph for Labor.
7.49pm. My commentary has slowed to a trickle because the picture on election day votes is now clear. We’re now in a period typical of modern election nights where there’s a lull between the election day votes coming in and the much larger pre-poll booths reporting later in the evening.
7.39pm. Trent Zimmerman goes so far as to suggest Tim James will end up on 61% two-party preferred, which suggests an extremely different dynamic on pre-polls than election day votes.
7.36pm. Antony Green in the same position as me in relation to Bega — his system is calling it for Labor, but the peculiarities of this election are such that he’s not willing to shut the door.
7.33pm. The Cooma pre-poll booth from Monaro is in, and there’s only a very slight swing to Labor compared with 7% on the election day booths — the first evidence those of us without scrutineering contacts have had that the Coalition may indeed be doing better on pre-polls.
7.26pm. I’ve spent a few minutes trying to fix my preference flow table, without success, so just disregard that. So far as the election day vote, the picture is now fairly settled. Firstly, the number of election votes we’re talking about here is unprecedentedly small, which has been reflected in the speed of the count. But for what they’re worth, the Liberals look like they’re in all sorts of trouble in Bega, but the ABC coverage indicates the feeling within the party is that this is misleading. There’s been a lot of progress in the Monaro count since I last commented, but no change in the overall picture — a big swing to Labor, but apparently not quite big enough. Very little swing in Strathfield; Liberal Tim James leading independent Larissa Penn in Willoughby by about 42.5% to 32.%, which would leave Penn in need of a very strong flow of preferences, so you wouldn’t rule her out unless you accepted the Liberals’ insistence that they’re doing better on pre-polls.
7.12pm. A slight swing to Labor in Strathfield; things have settled down in Willoughby, where my impression is of a tight result with maybe a slight edge for the Liberals over the independent, with the inevitable qualification that we’re flying blind without pre-polls and postals.
7.11pm. I’ve fixed my projections issue, although the swings in my “preference flows” table aren’t working, which was related to the problem with the projections. Consistent with what’s being said by Trent Zimmerman now, I’ve got the Nationals probably home in Monaro, but Bega still looks very bleak for the Liberals.
7.03pm. There’s an error in my projections which I’ll now work on fixing. Pay attention instead to the results in the tables.
7.01pm. Now looking even worse for the Liberals in Bega, where I think my numbers might be more up to date than the ones just noted by Antony Green, which had the swing at around 8% rather than my 12%.
6.58pm. Better news for the Liberals in Willoughby now. With 11 booths in out of 24, Tim James holds a fairly solid lead on the primary vote, which would probably be enough for him if there’s any rate of preference exhaustion, and certainly would be if it’s indeed the case that he’s doing better on pre-polls. Note that I’ve now arbitrarily set the probability gauge here at 50%. Also no swing now in Strathfield.
6.57pm. I’m now projecting a squeaker in Monaro off five two-party and nine primary results, which you can take as a Nationals win if the pre-poll and primary dynamic is any better for them.
6.56pm. That update is through now. We’ve now got six two-party booth results now from Bega, compared with I think only two before, but the situation hasn’t changed — still a big enough swing to Labor to carry the seat, but yet again, I observe that pre-polls and postals might change the picture.
6.54pm. There’s been an update that my system has failed to process, so the results are stuck for a short time. Should have new figures in a few minutes.
6.49pm. Now we have two booths from Willoughby where Larissa Penn has thrashed Tim James — along with a third which isn’t nearly as bad for James, but would still be worrying for him in his own right even if it were isolated. But like I say, Zimmerman says scrutineers are seeing something very different on pre-polls.
6.48pm. Some less bad primary vote numbers coming through from the Liberals in Bega, but it still looks like they will be relying on a more favourable dynamic from pre-polls and postals.
6.47pm. Trent Zimmerman on the ABC says scrutineers say pre-polls in Willoughby are encouraging for the Liberals.
6.44pm. Three booths in on the primary vote and one on two-party in Strathfield, a bit of a swing to Labor, but seemingly less than in Bega and Monaro.
6.42pm. We’ve now got two booths in from Bega on two-party, plus six on primary, which means I’m no longer going off preference estimates. The two booths have very different results, but when the primary vote booths are further factored in, it doesn’t look good for the Liberals. But — and here I may end up being a broken record — there may end up being a very different dynamic on postal votes.
6.41pm. So to be absolutely clear about this — my near 100% win probability for the Liberals in Willoughby assumes the Greens will come second, which they won’t. Disregard this figure, now and for the rest of the night.
6.39pm. I’ve managed to gloss over my problem with the Willoughby results page. A second booth, Chatswood Guide Hall, is less spectacular than the first, but still of concern for Tim James. The Liberal-Greens preference throw being conducted by the NSWEC will presumably be irrelevant, the contesting being between James and independent Larissa Penn.
6.36pm. Bermagui and Merimbula Public now in from Bega; Wamboin Hall in from Monaro. Liberal and Nationals still down heavily across the board.
6.35pm. Ben Raue on Twitter points out the number of votes reporting here is about 60% down the equivalent booths from 2019. So on top of all the other cautions, it’s possible the exodus from polling day to postal voting is dominated by conservatives.
6.34pm. Two booths from Monaro — Captains Flat Hall with 189 votes, 183 in Letchworth N’hood Cntr. Very solid swings to Labor in booth. So we’ve got five booths now altogether, all of them bad for the Coalition.
6.33pm. Second booth in Bega — Malua Bay Comm. Cntr — 195 votes, but very big swing to Labor. But I’d certainly ignore what my win probability estimate is saying for the time being.
6.29pm. Very interesting first result from Willoughby — Antony Green is noting this is likely to be her best part of the electorate, but independent Larissa Penn is outpolling the Liberal. I may yet regret the fact that this is the one seat where my results feature might not end up handling the strain.
6.26pm. My two-party preferred will be going off a crude estimate until a few more votes are in. I have a notion the estimate may be flattering to Labor, judging by the fact that I’ve got a bigger projected two-party swing than for the primary vote.
6.24pm. We’ve got a result – 78 votes from Towamba Public in Bega. Meaningless at this stage of course (a solid swing to Labor for what it’s worth), but the good news is that my results facility has dealt with it okay.
6.10pm. Links added above. The results map for Willoughby doesn’t seem to be working, but I’m hopeful it will resolve itself (and this seat is unlikely to be a focus of attention even if it doesn’t), and other than it looks okay so far. However, I won’t have cause for confidence until some actual numbers come through.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the count for the New South Wales state by-elections in Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby. If and when I’m satisfied that it’s working properly, I will shortly provide links for my live results pages. First results should presumably be through from country booths in Bega and Monaro around 6.30pm.
Constance now getting salty
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C@tmommasays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:50 pm
Ven @ #90 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:46 pm
What happened to Steven Whan (ALP) who used to represent Monaro before Barilaro?
Steve Whan · Deputy Chair at ClubPlus Super, Independent Director Murrumbidgee Irrigation; former NSW MP & Minister; former CEO National Irrigators Council.
”
He was one of the very few NSW Labor MPs I liked during 2007-2011 period. I wanted him to lead Labor in opposition. But he lost his seat.
That swing in Willoughby must be sending a few shivers down Zimmerman and Sharma’s spines.
somethinglikethat @ #70 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:33 pm
She is emblematic of the ire that the electorate have towards the Ultra Conservatives that are trying to take over the Liberal Party if you ask me. Fiona Kotvojs is Jim Molan’s avatar. When is the Liberal Party going to get the message? The Teals are putting it up in neon lights.
Re Ven at 7.46 pm
Whan is now Deputy Chair of ClubPlus Super, having previously been chief spruiker for farm irrigators.
The Greens not directing preferences is just plain petty politics. It is their way or the highway stuff.
Labor has 7.7% swing to them with only 23.% counted for Monaro
The evidence we’ve seen from other Covid elections is the usual postal vote trends break down when there’s this many of them. Really hard to know what’s going to happen there.
At federal level means nothing. But foreboded well at a state level for a Labor govt. Last time 2019 was 52/48 liberal way…. the swing seems certainly more than that
There could well be two more NSW by-elections in the near future if things don’t go well for the chap from Potts Point and the other chap from the legitimate businessman’s club.
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C@tmommasays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:52 pm
Confessions @ #83 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
Lynchpin @ #82 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:42 pm
How dumb are the Greens not directing preferences in Willoughby?
Unbelievably dumb.
Absolutely spiteful.
”
What do expect from a party that Preferenced Nats member above Labor candidate in NSW Local government election.
Why is Willoughby showing a 2PP between the Greens and Libs.
Never going to be the contest.
Asha @ #103 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:58 pm
The Libs are trying to spin it as, ‘governments always get a kick in by-elections, the electorate will probably revert to form in the election proper’. 🙂
>Why is Willoughby showing a 2PP between the Greens and Libs.
>Never going to be the contest.
Because that is what the AEC decided would be the content and that is what they counted.
“ Absolutely spiteful.”
They fear the Teals upsetting their little racket. The more Teal representation there is in parliament, doing better and more effective deals, the more that tree hugging middle classes will leave them. In droves. Before you’ll know it the rump will be back to being unemployed and selling socialist newspapers opposite Sydney Town Hall. Their political demise cannot come soon enough: a cancer on progressive politics and a real road block to the achievement of real tangible public progress.
Antony calls Bega for Labor (with caveats)
It is the NSWEC conducting the election, not the AEC.
Antony calling Strathfield for Labor (1% swing to Labor)
Monaro for Nats (7.7% against)
Willoughby for Liberal (off a 20% swing against)
Caveated by the Prepolls/postals not making a material difference
The big swing against Liberal Party in willoughby would be bringing a sneaky grin on Victor Dominello face
I’m thinking that the postal votes may favour Labor more as they may be comprised of people fearful of going to a polling booth and so putting Health concerns front and centre when they cast their votes.
Could Domicron and Smirko lose the North Shore of Sydney? If any 2 clowns could push the wealthiest demographic in Australia to the Teals, it’s these two..
Wallage Lake Koori Village booth has now recorded only 1 vote for Fiona Kotvojs, tieing with Gary Nairn back in 2007 in Eden-Monaro compared to 15 for Dr Holland.
William, your numbers have disappeared (:
Are they back now?
sprocket_ @ #101 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:56 pm
He said he was Mr Positive! 😆
Numbers are back for me after a brief outage
Whilst these are state by-elections but they kind of confirm what we think might happen in the federal election where the ALP looks stronger in regional seats and the teals are a real threat to the Liberals in their heartland and the Strathfield result would give Fiona Martin some confidence she could hold Reid but potentially the biggest story is the Greens saving the Liberals in Willoughby.
The small swing in Strathfield is partly Farrelly and partly the fact that Labor’s candidate is not local. I’m sceptical of the “he’s not a local” factor in city electorates normally but I think it counts for a bit in a by-election.
Won’t count at all by the time the state election rolls around.
It’s unbelievable when you hear the Liberals complain that Dr Holland is a good candidate, so that’s why he won. Isn’t that the whole point for political parties in an election, choose a great candidate? 😀
ABC coverage is like an insiders pretape.
William all back now.
Back, and looking good
You don’t need a Zimmerman to know which way the wind blows.
@Mexicanbeemer:
4,851+1,867 = 6718
Liberals = 6,658
Only if you assume all of the green voters would cast a vote for the independent could you say the Greens gave the Liberals the seat
Yes, the almost 10% for Elizabeth Farrelly would have cut into Labor’s vote in Strathfield. I don’t think she would have attracted many Liberal voters away from Bridget Sakr.
Well done to the Greens in Willoughby for saving the Liberals.
Greens got 8.2% each in Bega and Monaro (amazingly same percentage) and 7.7%bin Strathfield, where Labor contested. In Willoughby they got 12.2% where Labor did not contest and where there is a Teal candidate.
Re Cat at 8.19 pm
Correct. But the Libs weren’t saying Dr Holland was the best candidate before today. Do you remember the 1998 election? Labor gained more seats in Perth than in NSW. Poor candidate choice was one factor.
Catprog
The Greens didn’t preference the independent so they helped re-elect the Liberals.
I don’t think these numbers are sufficiently awful to reflect anger about the pandemic handling. I think (and hope) people are saving that for the federal election.
Still a good night for Labor so far though
William
“8.16pm. A second pre-poll booth is in from Willoughby, which makes two out of three, … So I remain curious as to where Zimmerman got his estimate of a 61-39 result.”
Shocked, shocked I am to see a Liberal resorting to disinformation to avoid admitting an embarrassing fact.
The independent didn’t preference the Greens either.
Also, my man Ed Husic once again proving a very good media performer. We need to see more of him.
Burgey @ #139 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 8:27 pm
A point just made by the panel. Suggesting maybe people are saving the baseball bats for the federal election.
Catprog
That doesn’t change what the Greens did.
WB. Evc results in Willoughby are much better for LP cf day votes. Up about 7% and Ind down about 9%.
Dr Doolittle @ #137 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 8:26 pm
I believe Labor have done better this time around, as far as the federal election goes anyway.
For Strathfield, I suspect a significant portion of the votes that went to Elizabeth Farrelly were exhausted rather than flowing to Labor.
I’m not sure how that translates to a Federal level.
@Mexicanbeemer
Yep neither of them preferenced the other so if you criticize one for that you also have to criticise the other.
Greens first prefs
Strathfield 7.7%
Willoughby 12.2% (n0 ALP candidate)
Monaro 8.2%
Bega 8.5%
They really need to manage out Adam Bandt