The Willoughby count has been updated with 9673 postals on the primary vote, and while these have leaned less heavily to the Liberals than postals did in 2019, they suggest Tim James’ lead is likely to widen from here rather than narrow. James has added 4357 primary votes, or 45.0% compared with 43.4% of all either votes, while Penn has gained 2651, or 27.4% compared with 32.2%.
Counting has completed in Willoughby for what I expect will be all votes other than postals, leaving Tim James on 8365 (51.76%) to Larissa Penn’s 7797 (48.24%), with 2085 votes having exhausted. The total of 18,247 votes counted is put in the shade by the 25,071 postal votes that have now been received, which will be supplemented by a small number over the next week, counting of which will finally begin on Saturday.
I’m bumping this thread back to the top of the page because the NSWEC is conducting a new two-candidate preferred count in Willoughby between the actual leading candidates, Liberal Tim James and independent Larissa Penn, having conducted what proved to be a superfluous Liberal-versus-Greens count on the night. With results reported from 14 out of 24 booths, preferences are flowing heavily enough against the Liberals (10.2% to Liberal, 42.7% to independent and 47.1% exhausted) to perhaps make James nervous. The numbers are available at the NSWEC website – they are not being published to the media feed unfortunately, so my own results display doesn’t show them. James presently leads 51.4-48.6, which increases to 51.9-48.1 if the preference flow so far is projected across the yet-to-report booths.
That leaves, so far, 18,033 postal votes that have been received, which is more than the sum of the votes so far counted with many more still to arrive, none of which will be counted before the weekend. Ordinarily I would point to the fact that Gladys Berejiklian polled 66.5% of postals in 2019 compared with 57.6% of election day and pre-poll votes and deem the door still closed. But that was from a total of a mere 2269, in contrast to the present extraordinary circumstance where postal ballots were sent to every enrolled voter in the electorate. It may be that, as in the United States, that pool of postal voters, which is traditionally older and more conservative, is now dominated by those most concerned about COVID-19.
For more on the by-elections, below is a discussion between myself and Ben Raue which was recorded on Monday afternoon:
Counting closed last night with quite a bit of the pre-poll vote still unreported – I’m unclear as to whether that will be finished off today or tomorrow. In the very unusual circumstances of these by-elections, there will then be very little to report for a full week, since counting of the unprecedentedly large number of postal votes will not start for another week, as was explained here. There may be a few other types of vote added to the count (absents, provisionals and telephone voting), but these will be few in number.
Election night commentary
10.40pm. A second pre-poll booth from Strathfield, Strathfield EM Office (as distinct from Strathfield EVC), is much more favourable for Labor than the first — a 10.7% swing for compared with 4.8% against — but with less than a quarter as many votes.
10.31pm. Two more pre-polls, Bungendore and Jerrabomberra, are in from Monaro on both primary and two-party — Jerrambomerra was bang on the 7.9% election day swing, Bungendore was 13.3% but with fewer votes.
10.27pm. The Strathfield pre-poll is now in on two-party, and it was a 4.8% swing against Labor, such that there is now a 1.4% swing against them in the seat overall.
10.24pm. Primary votes from the Narooma pre-poll centre, the second in Bega out of six, are much the same in swing terms as the election day results, discouraging the notion of such disparity between them as might jeopardise Labor’s substantial lead.
10.01pm. The last of the Willoughby pre-polls is in on the primary vote, and contrary to what I suggested earlier, the Liberals have suffered identical 15% primary vote swings on election day votes and pre-polls.
9.43pm. The first pre-poll result from Strathfield, primary votes from the Strathfield booth, are quite bad for Labor: down 9.8% on the primary vote compared with 4.3% on election day.
9.32pm. Queanbeyan pre-poll in on two-party: 3.7% swing to Labor compared with 7.9% on election day.
9.24pm. A second pre-poll booth, Queanbeyan, is in on the primary vote in Monaro, recording a swing against the Nationals slightly below the election day results.
8.49pm. The first pre-poll booth from Bega, Bermagui, is in. My results page says it has swung no different from the election day booths, but this is the one pre-poll in the seat that was not in use in 2019 so I’d advise some caution. Nonetheless, Labor candidate Michael Holland is claiming victory as I speak. Regarding the previous entry below, it seems my perception of a weak result for the Liberals in pre-polls in Willoughby is to do with the way I’ve calculated the historic results, which was a necessarily imperfect process. The remaining pre-poll booth there, North Willoughby, will presumably tell a different story.
8.16pm. A second pre-poll booth is in from Willoughby, which makes two out of three, and I’m now more confident that both show a drop in the Liberal Party vote similar to the election day booths, and pre-polls are not in fact transforming the result here. So I remain curious as to where Zimmerman got his estimate of a 61-39 result.
8.07pm. The first pre-poll booth from Willoughby, and the second overall, is Willoughby EM Office – my swing figure says it’s not much different from the election day results, contrary to what we were hearing from Trent Zimmerman. However, my historic figures for pre-poll booths in the city seats are dubious because several new booths were added, and discretion was needed in dividing up the 2019 votes.
7.59pm. All election day votes are in from Strathfield now on both primary and two-party, and with the usual caveat added about election day votes only, the lack of any swing is at least a partial qualification to the picture of a night for triumph for Labor.
7.49pm. My commentary has slowed to a trickle because the picture on election day votes is now clear. We’re now in a period typical of modern election nights where there’s a lull between the election day votes coming in and the much larger pre-poll booths reporting later in the evening.
7.39pm. Trent Zimmerman goes so far as to suggest Tim James will end up on 61% two-party preferred, which suggests an extremely different dynamic on pre-polls than election day votes.
7.36pm. Antony Green in the same position as me in relation to Bega — his system is calling it for Labor, but the peculiarities of this election are such that he’s not willing to shut the door.
7.33pm. The Cooma pre-poll booth from Monaro is in, and there’s only a very slight swing to Labor compared with 7% on the election day booths — the first evidence those of us without scrutineering contacts have had that the Coalition may indeed be doing better on pre-polls.
7.26pm. I’ve spent a few minutes trying to fix my preference flow table, without success, so just disregard that. So far as the election day vote, the picture is now fairly settled. Firstly, the number of election votes we’re talking about here is unprecedentedly small, which has been reflected in the speed of the count. But for what they’re worth, the Liberals look like they’re in all sorts of trouble in Bega, but the ABC coverage indicates the feeling within the party is that this is misleading. There’s been a lot of progress in the Monaro count since I last commented, but no change in the overall picture — a big swing to Labor, but apparently not quite big enough. Very little swing in Strathfield; Liberal Tim James leading independent Larissa Penn in Willoughby by about 42.5% to 32.%, which would leave Penn in need of a very strong flow of preferences, so you wouldn’t rule her out unless you accepted the Liberals’ insistence that they’re doing better on pre-polls.
7.12pm. A slight swing to Labor in Strathfield; things have settled down in Willoughby, where my impression is of a tight result with maybe a slight edge for the Liberals over the independent, with the inevitable qualification that we’re flying blind without pre-polls and postals.
7.11pm. I’ve fixed my projections issue, although the swings in my “preference flows” table aren’t working, which was related to the problem with the projections. Consistent with what’s being said by Trent Zimmerman now, I’ve got the Nationals probably home in Monaro, but Bega still looks very bleak for the Liberals.
7.03pm. There’s an error in my projections which I’ll now work on fixing. Pay attention instead to the results in the tables.
7.01pm. Now looking even worse for the Liberals in Bega, where I think my numbers might be more up to date than the ones just noted by Antony Green, which had the swing at around 8% rather than my 12%.
6.58pm. Better news for the Liberals in Willoughby now. With 11 booths in out of 24, Tim James holds a fairly solid lead on the primary vote, which would probably be enough for him if there’s any rate of preference exhaustion, and certainly would be if it’s indeed the case that he’s doing better on pre-polls. Note that I’ve now arbitrarily set the probability gauge here at 50%. Also no swing now in Strathfield.
6.57pm. I’m now projecting a squeaker in Monaro off five two-party and nine primary results, which you can take as a Nationals win if the pre-poll and primary dynamic is any better for them.
6.56pm. That update is through now. We’ve now got six two-party booth results now from Bega, compared with I think only two before, but the situation hasn’t changed — still a big enough swing to Labor to carry the seat, but yet again, I observe that pre-polls and postals might change the picture.
6.54pm. There’s been an update that my system has failed to process, so the results are stuck for a short time. Should have new figures in a few minutes.
6.49pm. Now we have two booths from Willoughby where Larissa Penn has thrashed Tim James — along with a third which isn’t nearly as bad for James, but would still be worrying for him in his own right even if it were isolated. But like I say, Zimmerman says scrutineers are seeing something very different on pre-polls.
6.48pm. Some less bad primary vote numbers coming through from the Liberals in Bega, but it still looks like they will be relying on a more favourable dynamic from pre-polls and postals.
6.47pm. Trent Zimmerman on the ABC says scrutineers say pre-polls in Willoughby are encouraging for the Liberals.
6.44pm. Three booths in on the primary vote and one on two-party in Strathfield, a bit of a swing to Labor, but seemingly less than in Bega and Monaro.
6.42pm. We’ve now got two booths in from Bega on two-party, plus six on primary, which means I’m no longer going off preference estimates. The two booths have very different results, but when the primary vote booths are further factored in, it doesn’t look good for the Liberals. But — and here I may end up being a broken record — there may end up being a very different dynamic on postal votes.
6.41pm. So to be absolutely clear about this — my near 100% win probability for the Liberals in Willoughby assumes the Greens will come second, which they won’t. Disregard this figure, now and for the rest of the night.
6.39pm. I’ve managed to gloss over my problem with the Willoughby results page. A second booth, Chatswood Guide Hall, is less spectacular than the first, but still of concern for Tim James. The Liberal-Greens preference throw being conducted by the NSWEC will presumably be irrelevant, the contesting being between James and independent Larissa Penn.
6.36pm. Bermagui and Merimbula Public now in from Bega; Wamboin Hall in from Monaro. Liberal and Nationals still down heavily across the board.
6.35pm. Ben Raue on Twitter points out the number of votes reporting here is about 60% down the equivalent booths from 2019. So on top of all the other cautions, it’s possible the exodus from polling day to postal voting is dominated by conservatives.
6.34pm. Two booths from Monaro — Captains Flat Hall with 189 votes, 183 in Letchworth N’hood Cntr. Very solid swings to Labor in booth. So we’ve got five booths now altogether, all of them bad for the Coalition.
6.33pm. Second booth in Bega — Malua Bay Comm. Cntr — 195 votes, but very big swing to Labor. But I’d certainly ignore what my win probability estimate is saying for the time being.
6.29pm. Very interesting first result from Willoughby — Antony Green is noting this is likely to be her best part of the electorate, but independent Larissa Penn is outpolling the Liberal. I may yet regret the fact that this is the one seat where my results feature might not end up handling the strain.
6.26pm. My two-party preferred will be going off a crude estimate until a few more votes are in. I have a notion the estimate may be flattering to Labor, judging by the fact that I’ve got a bigger projected two-party swing than for the primary vote.
6.24pm. We’ve got a result – 78 votes from Towamba Public in Bega. Meaningless at this stage of course (a solid swing to Labor for what it’s worth), but the good news is that my results facility has dealt with it okay.
6.10pm. Links added above. The results map for Willoughby doesn’t seem to be working, but I’m hopeful it will resolve itself (and this seat is unlikely to be a focus of attention even if it doesn’t), and other than it looks okay so far. However, I won’t have cause for confidence until some actual numbers come through.
6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the count for the New South Wales state by-elections in Bega, Monaro, Strathfield and Willoughby. If and when I’m satisfied that it’s working properly, I will shortly provide links for my live results pages. First results should presumably be through from country booths in Bega and Monaro around 6.30pm.
Labor suffered about 6 % PV against it in Strathfield. That is not looking good.
What is your opinion Expat Follower?
If the Bega mood translates to Gilmore, ScoMo’s path to victory through NSW narrows
Ven says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Labor suffered about 6 % PV against it in Strathfield. That is not looking good.
———-
Probably largely due to the ~9% PV that Elizabeth Farrelly has picked up, as a progressive independent. Those will mostly return to the ALP in preferences I’d guess.
”
sprocket_says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:15 pm
If the Bega mood translates to Gilmore, ScoMo’s path to victory through NSW narrows
”
I don’t about that because as I pointed earlier ALP suffered about 6% PV swing against it in Strathfield, which is in Reid. And ALP didn’t do well in Queanbeyan’ which is in Eden-Monaro.
That is 2 big urban centres where ALP fell well short of expectations.
The problem with OPV is the high exhaustion rate.
Elizabeth Farrelly’s candidacy will significantly hurt Labor’s result in Strathfield.
“ Probably largely due to the ~9% PV that Elizabeth Farrelly has picked up, as a progressive independent. Those will mostly return to the ALP in preferences I’d guess.”
Given the 2-3% swing to Labor on 2PP, then I’d say nearly all of Farrelly’s primary vote is distributing to Labor via preferences. Not exhausting. A closer analysis in the wash up will tell the strong, but it’s a safe Labor retain.
too early to tell atm
”
maxsays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:18 pm
Ven says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Labor suffered about 6 % PV against it in Strathfield. That is not looking good.
———-
Probably largely due to the ~9% PV that Elizabeth Farrelly has picked up, as a progressive independent. Those will mostly return to the ALP in preferences I’d guess.
”
Max
My point is Labor should not suffer any swing against it in current political environment even if it did not pick any swing.
Some booths around Bateman’s Bay (Long Beach and Tomakin) are swinging as big to Labor as Moruya. Pre-polls will not swing as strongly to Labor, but there would need to be a much bigger gap than usual between election day votes and pre-polls for Labor to lose Bega. Labor win probability 100% is correct.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:21 pm
“ Probably largely due to the ~9% PV that Elizabeth Farrelly has picked up, as a progressive independent. Those will mostly return to the ALP in preferences I’d guess.”
Given the 2-3% swing to Labor on 2PP, then I’d say nearly all of Farrelly’s primary vote is distributing to Labor via preferences. Not exhausting. A closer analysis in the wash up will tell the strong, but it’s a safe Labor retain.
”
Currently as per WB chart, Labor is suffering about 1% swing on 2PP.
Heard one of the reporters say that the Labor challenger for Bega has had the booths in his area counted, which could explain the early charge.
It’s a very grim result for the Greens in Willoughby, with only 11% of the PV and no Labor candidate.
Ven says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:23 pm
”
maxsays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:18 pm
Ven says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:15 pm
Max
My point is Labor should not suffer any swing against it in current political environment even if it did not pick any swing.
——-
Ven – the change in PV in itself is not all that meaningful – eg if the progressive vote is split due to a high profile independent running this time who did not run last time. Two party preferred is the main game. Having said that at the moment the 2PP Strathfield result is just OK but not outstanding . Bega on the other hand is looking very good (subject to postals etc) and although the Nats seem likely to retain Monaro there has been a decent 2PP swing against them.
Ven, William has:
8.9% swing to ALP in Monaro
13.9% swing to ALP in Bega
This would be a worry to LNP in the coming Federal election
Re sprocket at 7.15 pm
Gilmore looking much more comfortable for Labor. Kotvojs was assisted in this election by Constance. Parts of Gilmore not in the state seat of Bega (e.g. Nowra) have been affected even worse by Let It Rip.
Looks like Elizabeth Farrelly has taken a percentage of the Labor primary vote in Strathfield.
Labor will still easily win.
Dr Doolittle
“ Kotvojs cannot get back from here. She will get her hat-trick of defeats, once in 2019 (Eden Monaro) and twice at by-elections (E-M and now).”
Why do they keep putting her up in contestable seats?
I know the pre-polls are to come, but looking good for Labor.
A drinking game on the first time somebody says “there are no federal factors at play in this result.”
Currently Willoughby looks close on Election night result. But Zimmerman said Pre-polls were good for LIBS. Usually Postal will also favour Libs in such electorate. Looks Libs will win Willoughby.
“ Currently as per WB chart, Labor is suffering about 1% swing on 2PP.”
When I started to write my post there was a 2%+ swing to Labor, now it’s gone the other way slightly. So time will tell in bye wash up.
Looking forward to 2023 I’d say the propensity of the voters who don’t vote 1 for the majors / established parties to exhaust their votes may likely see Minns and state Labor fall short of victory, even if the swing is on. The large exhaust vote cost Labor dearly in 2015 and 2019. Not enough to cost it government, but it certainly lost seats because of it.
When does the serial candidate Kotvojs give it a rest?
Also, lulz at Ven. The NSW Libs wouldn’t be happy right about now.
The Teals will have a spring in their steps with the Willoughby result – 14%+ drop in the Liberal vote in their heartland is a big worry
>Outsider says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Which means it is not good for the left if they can only get 11% PV
Why is ‘Moderate’ (I do not mean Parramatta Moderate) not Commenting today? 🙂
Usually Moderate rejoices in ALP defeats.
Strathfield is exhausting with OPV at 42.7%
Makes Federal projections questionable
Antony Green calls Bega for Labor
… kind of.
Here’s Antony Green’s Vote Tracker: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw-byelection-2022-results?filter=all&sort=az
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:31 pm
“ Currently as per WB chart, Labor is suffering about 1% swing on 2PP.”
When I started to write my post there was a 2%+ swing to Labor, now it’s gone the other way slightly. So time will tell in bye wash up.
Looking forward to 2023 I’d say the propensity of the voters who don’t vote 1 for the majors / established parties to exhaust their votes may likely see Minns and state Labor fall short of victory, even if the swing is on. The large exhaust vote cost Labor dearly in 2015 and 2019. Not enough to cost it government, but it certainly lost seats because of it.
”
Exhaust voting change was introduced by NSW Labor (Was it Wran who introduced it?).
Carr benefitted a lot from it when he was Premier. His 2 crushing wins were largely helped by exhaust voting. Now LNP is benefitting from it.
You’re not wrong sprocket. Every teal would be looking at these numbers and licking their lips. Frydenberg and Wilson especially will be at the chemist getting some antacid. Steggal should canter in if it plays out any way like this anywhere else.
I think Willoughby might go Ind.
Bega may go Lab.
Let’s see.
Because they had a near death experience tonight with looking at one stage that they were going to lose all the seats, I think the LNP will be happy with losing one. So losing Bega was the worse case scenario yesterday is now an acceptable lose, provide that the other two are safe. The bar has been lower yet again.
How dumb are the Greens not directing preferences in Willoughby?
Lynchpin @ #82 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:42 pm
Unbelievably dumb.
Morrison must be pooping his pants right now.
So labor just ahead in Straithfield.
Labor retain Bega
Labor making gains on Monaro
Libs retain making gains on Willibougby
Morrison would be sitting on the crapper looking at the swings.
@ven:
“ I don’t about that because as I pointed earlier ALP suffered about 6% PV swing against it in Strathfield, which is in Reid. And ALP didn’t do well in Queanbeyan’ which is in Eden-Monaro.
That is 2 big urban centres where ALP fell well short of expectations.”
_____
That’s some classic bed wetting right there.
Farrell is largely responsible for the swing on primaries in Strathfield. For all of that, despite a high exhaust rate, this is a comfortable Labor hold.
Queanbeyan is Bruz town these days, and the Overalls – husband and wife – are extremely high profile in that part of the electorate. Big a Labor swing across the electorate though. Very encouraging for its federal election implications.
Zerlo Labor has never won Bega
On current projections Scott will need to master a Gibson SG to Angus Young standards stat.
What happened to Steven Whan (ALP) who used to represent Monaro before Barilaro?
Lynchpin says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:46 pm
Ah ALP GAIN
+13% swing to Labor
”
Zerlosays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:44 pm
So labor just ahead in Straithfield.
Labor retain Bega
Labor making gains on Monaro
Libs retain making gains on Willibougby
”
Zerlo
Labor wins/gains Bega and likely to retain Strathfield.
Ven @ #90 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:46 pm
Steve Whan · Deputy Chair at ClubPlus Super, Independent Director Murrumbidgee Irrigation; former NSW MP & Minister; former CEO National Irrigators Council.
Given the unusually large % of postal votes, the potential for them to show a different pattern than postals normally do, and the real possibility that the demographic make up of that group could be different from the rest of the electorates, the caution in calling these results makes good sense. There is the potential for postals – not counted till after 19 Feb – to cause either a significant red shift or blue shift. Could make a difference to the final outcome in Bega and Willoughby. Less likely to affect the other two.
Confessions @ #83 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:43 pm
Absolutely spiteful.
Confessions_says:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:43 pm
Lynchpin @ #82 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:42 pm
“How dumb are the Greens not directing preferences in Willoughby?
—
Unbelievably dumb.”
I am not sure how many follow those HTVC anyway.
Re Socrates at 7.29 pm
Kotvojs had done the donkey work in getting support in local Lib branches. Got nicked with a small + swing after preferences in both her previous efforts in Eden-Monaro, but now bowled without a shot.
As for implications, lots. First, this result (which is due mainly to Covid mismanagement of Omicron) reinforces LNP’s need for election as late as possible, i.e. 21 May. May help Dutton make LNP worse.
The Labor poster that sprocket put up (local doctor vs spin doctor) was very effective. The Bega result, like Eden-Monaro by-election in 2020, shows that good local candidates always matter a great deal.
Almost all the booths where Labor got an inadequate swing in Bega today are small country ones, not like the larger towns where there tend to be more swinging voters. That contrast has big implications.
”
Confessionssays:
Saturday, February 12, 2022 at 7:43 pm
Lynchpin @ #82 Saturday, February 12th, 2022 – 7:42 pm
How dumb are the Greens not directing preferences in Willoughby?
Unbelievably dumb.
”
Unfortunately they are proving Bludging and BW right.
If they were anti-Libs as they say they should have directed preferences to the Independent.
Andrew Constance says Fiona Kotvojs is ‘a very hard working candidate’ when asked if she wa the best candidate possible.
Let’s hope the Climate Science denying Fiona keeps getting preselected – maybe her patron ScoMo might fastrack her
Is it fair to assume that the postal vote could favour ALP/Indies given those doing postal voting could be doing so because they are worried about contracting COVID?