Situation normal

Accumulating bad news for the federal Coalition includes the results of two new seat polls and the state of the Liberal preselection process in New South Wales.

First up, two privately conducted uComms seat polls to relate courtesy of the Australia Institute (you may care to note here the disclosure statement at the bottom of my sidebar, which is particularly relevant to the seats in question), both providing bad news for the Liberals and good news for the independent rebellion they face:

• In North Sydney, the poll shows Liberal member Trent Zimmerman trailing independent Kylea Tink 59-41 and Labor 58-42, suggesting he would lose to whichever of the two finished ahead at the second last count. When results for the two primary vote questions are combined as appropriate, the second being a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, Zimmerman is on 35.5%, Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw is on 23.1%, Tink is on 21.3%, and the Greens are on 11.3%.

• In Wentworth, Liberal member Dave Sharma likewise trails independent Allegra Spender by 56-44 and a to-be-determined Labor candidate by 55-45. In this case the primary votes are 37.6% for Sharma, 28.5% for Spender, 19.2% for Labor and 8.0% for the Greens.

The two automated phone polls were conducted on January 24, with samples of 850 in North Sydney and 853 in Wentworth. More detail, including responses on various questions relating to the ABC, is available through the Australia Institute link above. I would add the caution that seat polls do not have a particularly stellar record, perhaps especially so for the kind of inner metropolitan seat under consideration here.

On top of that and everything else, there is all too much news to relate about the New South Wales Liberal Party’s extraordinarily fraught federal preselection process. Its state executive met on Friday to consider a factional peace deal that would have concluded long-delayed preselections for a number of important seats, the catch being that party membership ballots would be bypassed in a number of cases. However, signing off on this required the support of fully 24 out of the executive’s 27 members, and reports indicate it didn’t come close. This raises the spectre of intervention by the federal branch, which in turn would be assured of triggering legal action.

• The stickiest sticking point would seem to be the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which the Liberals need to wrest back from Craig Kelly after his move to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. The factional deal would have handed the preselection to PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore, much to the displeasure of local branch members given he lives in Manly, was earlier weighing up a run in Warringah, and hadn’t even bothered to nominate. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Scott Morrison is less than enthusiastic about Dore, as he favoured the claim of state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons. This was vehemently opposed by Dominic Perrottet and others who did not care for the prospect of a by-election in marginal Holsworthy, since the state government is already in minority and fears losing the Bega by-election on February 12. However, Koziol’s report suggests the by-election might happen anyway should Gibbons register her displeasure by resigning from parliament. Anne Davies of The Guardian reported last week that some in the party were of the view that Alex Dore for Hughes was so clearly a deal-breaker that it was no more than a ploy to bring on a federal intervention.

• The deal would have spared Sussan Ley a challenge from Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights, in her regional seat of Farrer. Liberal branches in the electorate have reportedly been targeted by a conservative recruitment drive, putting Ley in grave peril despite her status as the Morrison government’s Environment Minister.

• Another incumbent who would have been spared a challenge is Alex Hawke in Mitchell, which is telling since Hawke’s machinations as the leading powerbroker of the centre right faction, and thus a key element of Scott Morrison’s power base, have been widely blamed for the endlessly protracted preselection process. Hawke would reportedly struggle to hold off Michael Abrahams, an army colonel with strong backing among conservatives.

• Another factional powerbroker, moderate Trent Zimmerman, would be rubber-stamped in North Sydney, where he faces challenges from Hamish Stitt and Jessica Collins, respectively aligned with the hard right and the centre right. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian suggests their prospects in a membership ballot would be less strong than those of Ley’s and Hawke’s challengers.

• The deal would have installed the preferred candidate of Scott Morrison, Pentecostal preacher Jemima Gleason, on the Central Coast seat of Dobell, where the Liberals have been hopeful of reeling in Labor’s 1.5% margin. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian reports that Gleason has now withdrawn, and that “another potential candidate – a well-known cricketer – has also cooled on the idea”. Presumably this refers to Nathan Bracken, as per reports last year. This just leaves conservative-aligned Michael Feneley, a cardiologist at St Vincent’s Hospital who has twice run unsuccessfully in the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.

• Reports last week indicated the deal would also secure top position on the Coalition Senate ticket for Marise Payne, but it appears Friday’s state executive meeting decided otherwise, since Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported on Monday that a process had commenced that would have both winnable Senate positions determined by the usual process involving party branch delegates. Patrick reports the moderate-aligned Payne is “probably safe”, which is just as well given her status as Foreign Minister. With the second position reserved to the Nationals, that leaves number three as a battle between Connie Fierravanti-Wells and Jim Molan. Three incumbents are chasing two seats as a legacy of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash’s Section 44 disqualification in 2017, which left the Liberals with all three of the six-year terms the Coalition won at the 2016 double dissolution. Fierravanti-Wells was elevated from a three-year to a six-year term and Molan, who had initially been unsuccessful at the election, took over her three-year term. Molan was reduced to the unwinnable fourth position in 2019, but was back later in the year when he filled Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in a six-year term. Liberal sources cited by Anne Davies of The Guardian suggest Molan’s popularity with the party membership makes him the likely winner.

• Then there were the three seats that were uncontentiously to proceed to a party ballot under the factional deal. Even here there is bad news for the Liberals, with the announcement by moderate-aligned barrister Jane Buncle, the presumed front-runner to take on Zali Steggall in Warringah, that she was withdrawing her nomination. That just leaves conservative-aligned Lincoln Parker, who according to Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph has “worked in defence research and technology development” and at consulates in the United States. He has also contributed columns to the Epoch Times, the newspaper of China’s suppressed Falun Gong movement, the enthusiasm of which for Donald Trump extended to passing off his tales about voter fraud as fact. As James Campbell noted in the Daily Telegraph, the heat had gone out of the Warringah preselection contest due to a growing sense that victory was beyond the party’s grasp. The other two seats designated for party ballots under the deal are Bennelong and Labor-held Parramatta, on which I have nothing new to relate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,308 comments on “Situation normal”

Comments Page 45 of 47
1 … 44 45 46 47

  1. Bludging says:
    Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 7:26 pm

    Asha says:
    Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 7:12 pm

    They use the same tactics. They market different fears. But they use the same methods.

    There are members of my family who subscribe to the demented claims of Q-Anon. They live in fear. Some – especially the very aged – are quite tormented by the lies promulgated by Q-Anon.

    There are other members of my family who are gay or lesbian or bisexual.
    ____________
    Have you thought about getting the QAnon members of your family together with the LGBTQI members of your family and sorting things out?

  2. Someone up thread was bemoaning an increase of about 20 cents on the cost of each product in their Supermarket.

    I was in Coles Westfield Booragoon today about 12 noon. I go there with my wife most Saturdays, sometimes mid week as well.

    This time there was less than half the usual crowd there, but everybody was wearing masks and keeping a safe distance apart.

    But what hit me most were the shelves. Metres and metres of them, just empty.

    No packers restocking anything, no rice, little flour, only about 50% of the refrigeration shelves containing product, very little milk,
    massive gaps between products, and then often only a few available.

    Vegetables and fruit was in reduced supply, and some of what there was looked tired.

    I don’t know what is happening elsewhere in WA shopping centres, and I can only assume this is due to road and rail issues between WA and the east, but if this goes on much longer the State and Federal governments will have to seriously consider chartering ships and air transport to keep WA supplied.

    I shudder to think what that will add to the cost of each product.

    On the plus side, I can blame Morrison.

  3. Greg Hunt wins hands down.

    Julian Hill MP@JulianHillMP · 4m
    Thinking face Bloody hell, are they all liars?

    REPORTER TO JOYCE: Do you trust him now?
    JOYCE: Yes, I do.
    DAVID LITTLEPROUD: The one thing I’d say about Scott Morrison, he, he never lies.
    GREG HUNT: He’s one of the finest human beings I’ve ever had the opportunity to meet.

  5. Wat

    You’ve pretty much described every rusted-on partisan of any political party in the world. As soon as you become so devoted to something that it becomes your identity, you struggle to find any fault with it and see its failures as something that happened to it, rather than because of it.

    Yup this is very true. As a rusted-on partisan, things become very black and white – the other side is evil, your side is good, therefore any tactic is justified and any attack on your side should be taken as a personal attack on you to be avenged.

    I know it’s not a sexy position in the never-ending Labor/Green wars, but both parties bear blame for the 2019 loss – Labor considerably more so than the Greens.

    Adani only wedged Labor because Labor let itself be wedged by trying to straddle the fence on the issue. On the other hand, if the Greens really cared as much about environmental outcomes as they claim, they wouldn’t engage in campaign tactics that help elect Coalition governments.

  6. When Bludging states the bleeding obvious with respect the Greens’ rationale to maintain their very existence, he certainly brings out a strange collection of detractors. Sadly, some are from the same side of politics.
    However, today has generally been a good one for Bludging in that he seems to have received well-deserved positive feedback for his posts.
    The one blemish was the Scomo-like apology re mental health followed immediately by “borderline-fascist nonsense”.

  9. Late Riser, “Sohar, Is that called kissing the ring?”
    Not surprising when you consider the loving looks Greg gives Scott at press conferences.

  11. Snappy Tom
    Orchid electorates – requiring perfect conditions.

    I like the term!

    But not really applicable to Capricornia, which, prior to the 2013 election, had been held by Labor since 1977.

    CORRECTION: Labot lost the seat in 1996, and regained in 1998.

  15. Fulvio:

    I don’t know what is happening elsewhere in WA shopping centres, and I can only assume this is due to road and rail issues between WA and the east, but if this goes on much longer the State and Federal governments will have to seriously consider chartering ships and air transport to keep WA supplied.

    I shudder to think what that will add to the cost of each product.

    On the plus side, I can blame Morrison.

    I work in a supermarket, so I can confirm it’s the flooding in outback SA causing this. (I unload trucks and receive orders, so dealing with this craziness has been my job lately.) Anything really important is being sent by air (expensive, limited quantities) or ship (cheaper but slow) while they put the railway back together again. It’ll go on for the next few weeks, and then we’ll have more stock than we know what to do with. All the stuff we should’ve got in February will land in a big chaotic pile out at Kewdale. It probably won’t be for long enough to affect prices – stuff with volatile prices like meat and vegies is largely produced in WA anyway.

    The usual advice applies. Be patient, and no hoarding / panic buying please. And don’t take it out on us. We don’t get paid enough for that shit.

    Also, as much as Morrison is one of PB’s punching bags, it’s kinda hard to blame him for a once-in-a-century flood. Not everything is political.

  16. Mr Bowe

    Bludgertrack is currently 55.8/44.2 2PP

    Given that the last Newspoll was 56/44 and Resolve leans LNP, 55.8 seems a little high. What are key contributors to that number?

  17. sprocket_

    In Sydney’s West, there is a large Muslim community. It may shock you, but they suffer discrimination.

    I am aware of that, though it is intertwined with racism, for which we already have anti-discrimination laws. I asked specifically for examples where Christians have been discriminated against in Australia. Got any examples, even one?

    Bludging:

    Should Labor’s amendments be adopted, sectarian bigotry or religious bigotry would be unlawful.

    Can you give me one non-trivial example of where atheists have acted in a bigoted way towards Christians in Australia, like e.g. fired them on the basis of their religion or expelled them from a sectarian school?

    If this bill is so vital, surely there would be ample examples of events that have occurred to illustrate why it was so badly needed.

  18. Does anyone recall if this photo received any comments at the time… Scotties return from Hawaii at the time of the NSW bushfires..

  19. Given that the last Newspoll was 56/44 and Resolve leans LNP, 55.8 seems a little high. What are key contributors to that number?

    The heavy weighting given to Newspoll (which I’ve been meaning to tone down), to a lesser extent the bias adjustment given to Resolve Strategic, and to a still lesser extent the Morgan poll (meaning the one from a fortnight ago, and not this week’s mysterious phantom effort).

  20. Mr Newbie,
    I’m not trying to buy into a debate like the one you’re trying to gin up with briefly, however, I do have one example to put forward, and, yes, it’s a perverse reading of the qualification of ‘discrimination of secularists against Christians’, however, at the time that the law against Christians being able to protest against abortion outside abortion clinics was enacted, Christians got themselves into a lather about it and said they were being discriminated against.

  21. MickMack keeping the sniping going, posts this:

    Justin Langer’s was not the resignation that should have taken place today. He has been a mighty contributor for Australian cricket and should be proud of all he has helped the team accomplish. The nation salutes you JL – a good innings, well played!

  22. Sceptic, if you mean comments here, rather than in the general media or socials, I recall PB posters noting Morrison’s clenched fists and Gladys’ stepping back.

  24. C@tmomma:

    I do have one example to put forward, and, yes, it’s a perverse reading of the qualification of ‘discrimination of secularists against Christians’, however, at the time that the law against Christians being able to protest against abortion outside abortion clinics was enacted, Christians got themselves into a lather about it and said they were being discriminated against.

    So, using this example, those Christians who feel they’ve a right to protest outside an abortion clinic want that right enshrined in law? To be able to practise what they perceive as their religion freely, even if it impinges on the rights of others.

    That seems to be what it boils down to. ‘Our right to discriminate against you is more important than your right to remain free from our discrimination’.

    Makes sense.

  25. Found a headline for that picture above and a few tweets, but no story: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/shane-fitzsimmons,-gladys-berejiklian-and-scott-morrison-1/12125310?nw=0

    Here’s one comment from “Nitter”:

    “ joan kunze
    @madameshawshank
    26 Sep 2021
    Replying to @LesStonehouse
    It would be felt by Morrison as a narcissistic injury. Seething wouldn’t come close.This is how he “dealt with”Shane Fitzsimmons a few days after the latter,in a presser, said he was disappointed&frustrated to learn of deployment of 3000 reservists via media. #ScottyFromPhotoOps”.

    So Shane offers constructive criticism to the PM, the PM looks like he’s about to thump him for his efforts (thinks – “must tell the Dirt Unit to dig up or make up something on this guy and leak it to The Australian”) while Gladys wishes she was somewhere, anywhere away from this “horrible, horrible person”.

  27. “MickMack keeping the sniping going, posts this:

    Justin Langer’s was not the resignation that should have taken place today. He has been a mighty contributor for Australian cricket and should be proud of all he has helped the team accomplish. The nation salutes you JL – a good innings, well played!”

    A little kind to cricket australia and the senior player group, suggesting only one resignation was in order but other than that seems a very mild post. Did the entitled cheating arseholes (which i’ll call the NSW faction for short) get some support in the back pages worth reading?

  28. Good to see sensible comments from Sprocket & Gettysburg1863 regarding the ALP’s response to the parliamentary inquiry into the Religious Discrimination Act.

    Federal Labor is just letting the LNP destroy themselves over this in the next two weeks.

    One thing, it ain’t going to be pretty.

    Clever tactics.

  29. Why Religious Discrimination Laws?

    While the Same Sex Marriage plebiscite achieved a more-than-60% YES vote nationally, the numbers (I’m told) were quite different in parts of Western Sydney. There seems to be a view that the reduced support for SSM in areas like this correlated with religious ‘conservatives’ (not necessarily Christian ones).

    One element of the Coalition pushing this completely unnecessary legislation is pandering to their fundamentalist base. Another is trying to wedge Labor in Western Sydney (and probably other) seats where support for SSM was reduced, probably for religious reasons.

    Morrison wants Labor to say NO to this bill. Labor proposing amendments that may be acceptable to Liberal moderates may be a way of removing the negative aspects of the bill AND Morrison’s wedge opportunity.

  30. Yes – the Liberals are desperate for a wedge against Labor since nothing has worked so far. This is precisely what the RDA is about.

  33. One thing I meant to say in relation to my previous comment is the influence the SDA may have on Labors approach to the RDA.

    A pox on the SDA and all the influence they have on the ALP.

    Biggest bunch of grubs you want to know, and this is coming from a strong ALP/Union person.

    The sooner we see the last of them and their religious influence over ALP policies the fucking better!

  34. Re sprocket at 6.42 pm and another use for that “think for yourself” photo

    The Labor candidate for Dawson, Shane Hamilton, could use it as the centrepiece of a triptych leaflet, with Barnaby (March 2021 version) on one side affirming (based on years of close observation) that ProMo is a liar and a hypocrite, and ProMo himself (12 Nov 2021) on the other side, saying he’s never lied in public. Would not even have to quote Macron, just put a big VOTE LABOR underneath that photo.

    On the gamblers’ index Dawson is the 9th most likely LNP Qld seat to fall; it’s the 19th on the pendulum.

  36. Delicious! Thank you to those that provided McCormack’s words today.

    Agree SnappyTom. The Coalition is being wedged on the RDA at present. The broad church has appeared to fracture as a result of the pandemic and the decisions that were made.

    Edit: RDA not SDA. Freudian slip? 🙂

  37. Been There says:
    Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 9:20 pm

    One thing I meant to say in relation to my previous comment is the influence the SDA may have on Labors approach to the RDA.

    A pox on the SDA and all the influence they have on the ALP.

    Biggest bunch of grubs you want to know, and this is coming from a strong ALP/Union person.

    The sooner we see the last of them and their religious influence over ALP policies the fucking better!
    ____________________
    In Victoria the unholy Alliance between the SL, the TWU and the SDA now dominate the Victorian Labor Party at the expense of the remnants of ML and the Shortenites: The AWU and the HSU.

    This should see a few more SDA members in state and Federal seats. Enjoy!

  40. Not trying to brag, or anything, but I’ve been writing here for a few years now that it’s impossible Morrison could only be seen as a backstabbing arsehole by his enemies. His friends must have been in on the secret too.

    And (finally) the proof has come to pass.

  43. SDA does seem to progressing a little towards the 20th century since they got rid of De Bruyn in 2018. I was surprised to see them launching a campaign against McDonalds a few weeks ago.

  44. In other news, HMAS Adelaide still has not moved and the power issue is not fixed. Not that the government will give an update.

  45. Putting the churlish and politically boring Lab0r zealot -Greens apologist wars aside, I maintain my view that the Greens scored an own goal in that road trip to Queensland because it contributed to the Coalition retaining Government.

    And that Government is full of climate change sceptics and coal mining advocates, the worst possible mob you would want in Government if you are advocating environmental policy goals. That to me is an own goal.

    I always scroll past the Labor-Greens history wars . I won’t respond to blind zealotry from either side.

  46. I wonder when the Labor federal preselections for Victoria are going to happen.

    What will be the fate of Kim Carr and Kimberley Kitching now that they are out of the ruling Alliance?

    After the State preselection bloodletting in December it’s easy to imagine they might get the chop for ‘connected’ guys.

  48. ”
    Bird of paradoxsays:
    Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 8:11 pm
    Fulvio:

    I don’t know what is happening elsewhere in WA shopping centres, and I can only assume this is due to road and rail issues between WA and the east, but if this goes on much longer the State and Federal governments will have to seriously consider chartering ships and air transport to keep WA supplied.

    I shudder to think what that will add to the cost of each product.

    On the plus side, I can blame Morrison.

    I work in a supermarket, so I can confirm it’s the flooding in outback SA causing this. (I unload trucks and receive orders, so dealing with this craziness has been my job lately.) Anything really important is being sent by air (expensive, limited quantities) or ship (cheaper but slow) while they put the railway back together again. It’ll go on for the next few weeks, and then we’ll have more stock than we know what to do with. All the stuff we should’ve got in February will land in a big chaotic pile out at Kewdale. It probably won’t be for long enough to affect prices – stuff with volatile prices like meat and vegies is largely produced in WA anyway.

    The usual advice applies. Be patient, and no hoarding / panic buying please. And don’t take it out on us. We don’t get paid enough for that shit.

    Also, as much as Morrison is one of PB’s punching bags, it’s kinda hard to blame him for a once-in-a-century flood
    ”

    “Once-in- a-century flood”. There you go. Another once in a century weather event. The frequency of “Once-in- a-century flood” events has increased.

  49. The Liberal candidate for the seat that Morrison did the hair washing bizzo passed her test in flying colours, laughing, and carrying on at every one of his antics.

    Definitely an opposition minister’s role for her in the Morrison/Barnaby opposition party after the next election.

    Well done you!

Comments Page 45 of 47
1 … 44 45 46 47

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *