First up, two privately conducted uComms seat polls to relate courtesy of the Australia Institute (you may care to note here the disclosure statement at the bottom of my sidebar, which is particularly relevant to the seats in question), both providing bad news for the Liberals and good news for the independent rebellion they face:
• In North Sydney, the poll shows Liberal member Trent Zimmerman trailing independent Kylea Tink 59-41 and Labor 58-42, suggesting he would lose to whichever of the two finished ahead at the second last count. When results for the two primary vote questions are combined as appropriate, the second being a forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided, Zimmerman is on 35.5%, Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw is on 23.1%, Tink is on 21.3%, and the Greens are on 11.3%.
• In Wentworth, Liberal member Dave Sharma likewise trails independent Allegra Spender by 56-44 and a to-be-determined Labor candidate by 55-45. In this case the primary votes are 37.6% for Sharma, 28.5% for Spender, 19.2% for Labor and 8.0% for the Greens.
The two automated phone polls were conducted on January 24, with samples of 850 in North Sydney and 853 in Wentworth. More detail, including responses on various questions relating to the ABC, is available through the Australia Institute link above. I would add the caution that seat polls do not have a particularly stellar record, perhaps especially so for the kind of inner metropolitan seat under consideration here.
On top of that and everything else, there is all too much news to relate about the New South Wales Liberal Party’s extraordinarily fraught federal preselection process. Its state executive met on Friday to consider a factional peace deal that would have concluded long-delayed preselections for a number of important seats, the catch being that party membership ballots would be bypassed in a number of cases. However, signing off on this required the support of fully 24 out of the executive’s 27 members, and reports indicate it didn’t come close. This raises the spectre of intervention by the federal branch, which in turn would be assured of triggering legal action.
• The stickiest sticking point would seem to be the southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which the Liberals need to wrest back from Craig Kelly after his move to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. The factional deal would have handed the preselection to PwC Australia management consultant Alex Dore, much to the displeasure of local branch members given he lives in Manly, was earlier weighing up a run in Warringah, and hadn’t even bothered to nominate. Michael Koziol of the Sydney Morning Herald also reports that Scott Morrison is less than enthusiastic about Dore, as he favoured the claim of state Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons. This was vehemently opposed by Dominic Perrottet and others who did not care for the prospect of a by-election in marginal Holsworthy, since the state government is already in minority and fears losing the Bega by-election on February 12. However, Koziol’s report suggests the by-election might happen anyway should Gibbons register her displeasure by resigning from parliament. Anne Davies of The Guardian reported last week that some in the party were of the view that Alex Dore for Hughes was so clearly a deal-breaker that it was no more than a ploy to bring on a federal intervention.
• The deal would have spared Sussan Ley a challenge from Christian Ellis, a public relations specialist who has made a name locally campaigning for water rights, in her regional seat of Farrer. Liberal branches in the electorate have reportedly been targeted by a conservative recruitment drive, putting Ley in grave peril despite her status as the Morrison government’s Environment Minister.
• Another incumbent who would have been spared a challenge is Alex Hawke in Mitchell, which is telling since Hawke’s machinations as the leading powerbroker of the centre right faction, and thus a key element of Scott Morrison’s power base, have been widely blamed for the endlessly protracted preselection process. Hawke would reportedly struggle to hold off Michael Abrahams, an army colonel with strong backing among conservatives.
• Another factional powerbroker, moderate Trent Zimmerman, would be rubber-stamped in North Sydney, where he faces challenges from Hamish Stitt and Jessica Collins, respectively aligned with the hard right and the centre right. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian suggests their prospects in a membership ballot would be less strong than those of Ley’s and Hawke’s challengers.
• The deal would have installed the preferred candidate of Scott Morrison, Pentecostal preacher Jemima Gleason, on the Central Coast seat of Dobell, where the Liberals have been hopeful of reeling in Labor’s 1.5% margin. However, Anne Davies of The Guardian reports that Gleason has now withdrawn, and that “another potential candidate – a well-known cricketer – has also cooled on the idea”. Presumably this refers to Nathan Bracken, as per reports last year. This just leaves conservative-aligned Michael Feneley, a cardiologist at St Vincent’s Hospital who has twice run unsuccessfully in the Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.
• Reports last week indicated the deal would also secure top position on the Coalition Senate ticket for Marise Payne, but it appears Friday’s state executive meeting decided otherwise, since Aaron Patrick of the Financial Review reported on Monday that a process had commenced that would have both winnable Senate positions determined by the usual process involving party branch delegates. Patrick reports the moderate-aligned Payne is “probably safe”, which is just as well given her status as Foreign Minister. With the second position reserved to the Nationals, that leaves number three as a battle between Connie Fierravanti-Wells and Jim Molan. Three incumbents are chasing two seats as a legacy of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash’s Section 44 disqualification in 2017, which left the Liberals with all three of the six-year terms the Coalition won at the 2016 double dissolution. Fierravanti-Wells was elevated from a three-year to a six-year term and Molan, who had initially been unsuccessful at the election, took over her three-year term. Molan was reduced to the unwinnable fourth position in 2019, but was back later in the year when he filled Arthur Sinodinos’s vacancy in a six-year term. Liberal sources cited by Anne Davies of The Guardian suggest Molan’s popularity with the party membership makes him the likely winner.
• Then there were the three seats that were uncontentiously to proceed to a party ballot under the factional deal. Even here there is bad news for the Liberals, with the announcement by moderate-aligned barrister Jane Buncle, the presumed front-runner to take on Zali Steggall in Warringah, that she was withdrawing her nomination. That just leaves conservative-aligned Lincoln Parker, who according to Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph has “worked in defence research and technology development” and at consulates in the United States. He has also contributed columns to the Epoch Times, the newspaper of China’s suppressed Falun Gong movement, the enthusiasm of which for Donald Trump extended to passing off his tales about voter fraud as fact. As James Campbell noted in the Daily Telegraph, the heat had gone out of the Warringah preselection contest due to a growing sense that victory was beyond the party’s grasp. The other two seats designated for party ballots under the deal are Bennelong and Labor-held Parramatta, on which I have nothing new to relate.
Also, as much as Morrison is one of PB’s punching bags, it’s kinda hard to blame him for a once-in-a-century flood. Not everything is political.
If Chris Uhlmann can blame renewable power for a South Australian wind blowing over transmission lines I can blame Scomo for South Australian rain washing away a train line or two.
Dunkley is not going to be in play at the election unless it is going against the swing. It is currently on a margin of 2.7% for the ALP.
B.S. Fairman,
Chief of the navy should be looking for a new job. Frankly that ship and that capability shouldn’t be having any sort of issue for this long.
Imagine if this were a time of war and that ship was fully laden with troop and tanks and all that. What a fucking waste of money.
Frednk.
Thanks, didn’t know I posted a link.
I’ll check anyway.
Anyone else notice how “once in a hundred year” climate events are happening once every ten years or so now?
Soith – Exactly. Why has Dutton not been questioned about this? He is Defence Minister at the moment. One of our two largest warships has not been able to move in almost 2 weeks.
Been There at 9.57pm
If the Coalition lose the election (see how I’m not tempting fate by taking anything for granted) I think Morrison will remain Liberal leader for no more than 5 minutes flat. Then he’ll be off like a shot to another well-paid gig. For him, “situation normal.”
Poliphili says:
Saturday, February 5, 2022 at 7:42 pm
When Bludging states the bleeding obvious with respect the Greens’ rationale to maintain their very existence, he certainly brings out a strange collection of detractors. Sadly, some are from the same side of politics.
However, today has generally been a good one for Bludging in that he seems to have received well-deserved positive feedback for his posts.
The one blemish was the Scomo-like apology re mental health followed immediately by “borderline-fascist nonsense”.
Cheers Poliphili, I’m much obliged 🙂
I think a strong ALP campaign point should be that if you vote for the LNP, Morrison won’t last the year, let alone until the next election. It’s a vote for chaos.
Pi – It is a statistical thing. But people don’t like talking about events that 3 standard deviations off the mean. Hence the stupid one in a 100 year terms.
https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-1-in-100-year-weather-event-and-why-do-they-keep-happening-so-often-157589
Frednk
Thanks for pointing that out.
I’ve worked it out.
All good, I’ve nothing to hide.
People, check that you haven’t got your email address in the website box when posting.
Been There @ #2249 Saturday, February 5th, 2022 – 9:57 pm
She’s a former Reality TV performer. So it came naturally.
Q: I think Morrison will remain Liberal leader for no more than 5 minutes flat. Then he’ll be off like a shot to another well-paid gig. For him, “situation normal.”
Morrison is unemployable, like Abbott. Has nothing to offer a corporation, and there is his little ‘lying and psycho and woman’ problem.
Right wing booster Nath trying to define the whole Australian union movement by referencing the SDA. Says all you need to know about him methinks. He’s a business owning Green, the type who despises unions because they despise workers.
“I think MickMack was implying the resignation that should have happened today was Barnaby’s.”
Ta thanks very much and barnaby is an idiot of very low moral compass, but today it wasn’t him that should have resigned, Scotty should go, either to the polls or to help is MAGA friends in the USA. We don’t need him back ta.
“ Morrison is unemployable, like Abbott. Has nothing to offer a corporation, and there is his little ‘lying and psycho’ problem.”
Nah. Unfortunately the fucker only knows how to fail upwards. Next gig is likely to be as the World CEO of the Assemblies of God, Hillsong division in New York. As a humble man he won’t pocket more than a $1 million pa from his flock. … plus a free Manhattan pad … and the church’s G5 …
“Right wing booster Nath trying to define the whole Australian union movement by referencing the SDA.’
The SDA makes a very very good case for abolishing unions, it is time the ALP fixed that sh1t up.
Clem, you must learn to make allowances for the youngest of the seven dwarfs.
Ye gods, there is no extent to which Russia will not go in order to create a false flag to invade Ukraine. Next cab off the rank, a deep fake attack on Russian forces:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/05/ukraine-russia-nato-putin-germany/
Unsurprising though, considering Russia has been at the forefront of cyber warfare.
WTH! Germany!?!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/05/ukraine-russia-nato-putin-germany/
Whatever problems the SDA may have – and I can speak from first-hand experience to their, er, inadequacies – the solution most definitely is not abolishing unions.
Nath is a pissant. Has he ever been a memeber of a union in his life? Of course not, but the dope carries on about union gossip, as if he had a permanent office in Trade’s hall. Wanker!
BW:
Absolutely! I’ve been a bit critical of the state government as of late, but this has genuinely put a big smile on my face.
Obviously those of us wary of Chinese militarism are just overreacting. Security at the winter olympics manhandling a journalist doing a broadcast is all part of the fun.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-05/ioc-plays-down-overzealous-chinese-security-guard-at-winter-olym/100808128
Q: Unfortunately the fucker only knows how to fail upwards.
I forgot his personal qualities make him a perfect fit to lead a far-right church.
Asha
The SDA need to go.
These religious dinosaurs have influenced ALP policies for too long.
Tell the kids to go here:
https://raffwu.org.au/
Pi:
The way things are going, that might be seen as a plus for the Coalition!
“Whatever problems the SDA may have – and I can speak from first-hand experience to their, er, inadequacies – the solution most definitely is not abolishing unions.”
I know that, it was my way of expressing just how terrible they are and the massive damage they cause.
When one of the bastards sits besides you in State Exec and another member of State Exec asks why you were sitting next to ‘evil incarnate’ then that there is a problem that must be addressed should be obvious.
But no.
Been There @ #2276 Saturday, February 5th, 2022 – 10:52 pm
Oh jeez, not another booster for that bunch of privileged tossers that run this so-called ‘union’, mainly for the benefit of themselves.
‘Evil incarnate’? Lol, is that the best he could do? Maybe he should take some lessons from Marina Hyde as she describes Boris Johnson:
If you ever wondered what Jim Jones’s corpse would have looked like if it had spent three weeks getting bleached and bloated by a Guyana river, it floated up to the House of Commons dispatch box yesterday at 3.30pm.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/01/wine-fridges-tory-party-kool-aid
C@t
And the SDA aren’t mainly for the benefit of themselves?
What’s the SDA do?
You’re kidding, aren’t you?
Obviously, you have connections to the SDA otherwise you wouldn’t make such a statement about a union such as the RFFW trying to differentiate from the corrupt religious crew of the SDA.
C@t, I worked for a long time in an industry represented by the SDA. Been There, Nath, and We Want Paul are unfortunately correct.
In my experience, the shop stewards and low-level officials were, by and large, decent people doing their best to look out for their members – I have no complaints about the assistance I received when I was dealing with a severe workplace injury, for example – but those at the top were (are?) duplicious bastards more interested in right-wing social policy than workers’ rights, and the EBAs they would negotiate and then totally misrepresent to us plebs on the shop floor were typically garbage.
Were I still employed in that area, I’d definitely join the RFFW.
Been There @ #2281 Saturday, February 5th, 2022 – 11:06 pm
Don’t make assumptions about me that you can’t prove, Been There. It makes an ass out of you. No, I don’t have ‘connections’ to the SDA. What I do have is proof that they have fought the good fight for workers in the retail industry as it relates to pay and conditions for them, essentially ever since John Howard introduced WorkChoices and the big supermarkets tried to use it to get the unions off the shop floor and bastardise and exploit their workforce. I had to prove it to Socrates when he came out with the same sort of stuff and nonsense about the SDA that you are and he eventually agreed with me that they aren’t as bad as devious malcontents like nath, and now it seems, like you, make them out to be.
The radical conservative Catholic power base you seem so concerned about as it pertains to the executive of the SDA, is fast receding into history, and if you knew what you were talking about, you would know that too. Apparently you don’t.
Okay, so tell me, you know, compare the pair, to enlighten me about the gains made by the little upstart outfit you are pushing, compared to the gains for workers made by the SDA? Or are you just going to come out with some hopey changey stuff that they want to do. But never seem to be able to actually do?
Comment deleted to save William any issues.
Asha @ #2283 Saturday, February 5th, 2022 – 11:22 pm
And, Asha, you absolutely prove my point. WHEN you were working in that field. THAT’S the way it was.
IF you were still working there, then you would see how things have changed and especially since the Coalition got back into power. I could provide the evidence, and I have before to Socrates, who is no pushover, and convinced him of that, but it’s just too late at night now to do it again.
As far as the religious influence over the union at the higher levels I think you’ll find that with the Bill Ludwig faction gone, and the Don Farrell faction weakened, that not so much of their socially conservative agenda is getting through to become policy anymore at the ALP National Conference. Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek, Anthony Albanese and Julia Gillard won that battle.
And if you don’t believe me, just look back to see who got the #1 spot on the SA Senate ticket at the last election. Hint: it wasn’t Don Farrell.
Sure there are SDA-sponsored MPs in federal parliament, but they just don’t have the political clout these days that they used to. And anyone who tries to tell you differently is lying for their own nefarious purposes. Fcs, all the really radical Catholics have decamped to the Liberal Party!
C@t
My issue is not so much with how the shoppies run the union, but their influence on the Labor party.
The sooner that influence is gone the better!
And little upstart unions have to start somewhere, and they’ll bury these shoppie dinosaurs over time.
Been There,
This is a fight to the death between the Union Movement and the Tories. And any union that fights them and their business backers as staunchly as the SDA has, has my support. Now is not the time to put David up against that Goliath.
Also, as I said to Asha, if you look, you will see that the radical Catholic Social Conservatives are mainly in the Liberal Party these days and the ones left in Labor are nowhere near as bad. Labor MPs had to support SSM. Labor believes in A Woman’s Right To Choose. Labor state governments have enacted VAD. Where’s your problem?
Been There
The test is easy, is the little upstart union a member of the ACTU.
If not then cat’s description pretty much sums it up if so then let them duke it out.
No, it was the late Alex Gallacher, social conservative member of the Right faction. In fact, the Right got both winnable spots in a factional deal to keep Steve Georganas in parliament in the Division of Adelaide, despite being a member of the Left at the time (he’s since defected to the Right.)
Farrell bowed to public pressure in 2013 because Wong is a far more popular politician and the party had a “faceless men” image at the time that it was trying to shake off. The wisdom among the party at the time was they would still win two Senate seats, so it didn’t matter which order they were in. It ended up costing him his seat when Labor underperformed in that election, only winning one seat. But he got his seat back in 2016. In that election, he took the second spot but it was less of a risk because it was a Double Dissolution and the top 2 spots were a shoo-in for election.
I don’t know what order the ballot will be in this time but, with the collapse of the Xenophon vote and Labor not being on-the-nose like it was in 2013, it’s reasonably safe to say that the Labor #1 and #2 candidates will both be elected regardless of ballot order.
C@t
My problem is the people they install and the fact that the SDA is in bed with big business.
They have too much of a say in ALP policies.
I understand they’re moderating but it’s still there.
They need to be gone.
Been there,
It may not happen overnight, but it is happening. We may all want it to happen sooner but that’s not how it is. As Rex Douglas likes to say, they are being ‘managed out’.
Michael McCormack
@M_McCormackMP
Justin Langer’s was not the resignation that should have taken place today…
5:55 PM · Feb 5, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
There’s little doubt to whom McCormack is referring. Yet another
convention trashed by Joyce.
Mavis @ #2294 Saturday, February 5th, 2022 – 11:57 pm
And Morrison. Morrison is the one who didn’t accept it.
rhwombat, if you’re about. Here’s a link you may enjoy, to a review of some science on the brain as a time machine.
https://www.sciencealert.com/to-help-us-see-a-stable-world-our-brains-keep-us-15-seconds-in-the-past
I’m surprised that the integration time is long as 15 seconds though. We’d never catch a ball if it was a straight delay, but I like the concepts. Actually, the ideas might relate to 7 day covid averages too, and perhaps William Bowe’s poll aggregator. Dynamic self-aware systems define their own “now”.
Aaaarrrggghhh!!! I’m about to turn into a pumpkin! 😆
Sassy MickMack is my favourite MickMack.
C@t
“Aaaarrrggghhh!!! I’m about to turn into a pumpkin! ”
Perfect timing.
I note the RFFW is not a member of the ACTU, so as Frednk pointed out, let them duke it out.
Thanks for that point Frednk.
Meantime, for me, some music and then bed.
Goodnight C@t & Frednk and all.
Sleep well!
The SDA in WA has ditched the social conservatism and are better for it.
Also far better at EBA negotiation and industrial representation than the RRFW who unfortunately have very limited expertise in that area.
Asha is right, Catmomma is wrong.
At my employer (one of the big ones) everyone’s an SDA member – it’s just one of those forms you sign at induction when you get your name badge. A union rep drops in for a visit maybe once a year. We operate under an EBA from 2018, and in all that time I haven’t had a payrise. Adjusting for inflation it’s actually a pay cut, with something called a “Temporary Transition Rate” tacked onto my new (lower) pay rate to make it not illegal. (Coles got into trouble for something similar a few years ago.) The RAFFWU is a nice idea and I like that they’ve been formed, but I don’t see a point in joining them – my employer funnels new employees (thousands every year) into the SDA, so they’ll always have a monopoly. $10 a week for very little in return.
And those are just my opinions of the SDA as a member of them! My equally-negative opinion of the SDA’s influence on the Labor party is a whole different rant.