Nothing on voting intention, but there’s a bunch of polls around the place, the most useful from my perspective being the first fortnightly Essential Research survey of the year, as it includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison is at 46% on both approval and disapproval, respectively steady and up two since last month, which is the first time he has failed to record a net positive result since immediately before the onset of the pandemic in March 2020. Anthony Albanese is likewise equal on approval and disapproval, in his case at 39%, with approval down one and disapproval up three. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is at 42-34, in from 42-31 last month and likewise his weakest result since March 2020.
There’s more bad news for Morrison on COVID-19 management, with the federal government recording a net negative result for the first time, its positive rating down six to 35% and negative up six to 38%. There has also been a sharp decline in the positive ratings for every state government except Victoria, most noticeably in the case of Western Australia, where the positive rating is down twelve to a new low of 66%. This remains nineteen points higher than nearest rival Victoria, up four points to 47%. New South Wales is down seventeen to 37%, now the lowest of the five, with Queensland down eleven to 46% and South Australia down fourteen to 43%. The results for the smaller states especially should, as always, be treated with caution here, but the near-uniformity of the sharp downward turn is impressive.
Respondents were also asked if various matters related to COVID-19 were likely to influence their chances of voting Coalition, an exercise I’m dubious about since it’s clear that many party loyalists respond without regard to the fact that their vote choice isn’t in doubt. For what it’s worth, 37% rated themselves less likely on account of Scott Morrison’s recent performance and 19% more likely; 30% and 15% ditto because of recent case numbers; 38% and 12% because of the shortage of rapid antigen tests (note the perversity of being more likely to vote Coalition on this basis); 22% and 19% because of reduced border restrictions; and, in the one net positive result, 23% and 27% for the Novak Djokovic affair.
The poll also finds 37% believe the choices of those who wish not to be vaccinated should be respected versus 63% who don’t, of whom 41% consider the unvaccinated ill-informed and 22% selfish. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1062.
Various other polling around the place:
• A poll by Painted Dog Research for The West Australian recorded a 71-29 split in favour of the McGowan government’s indefinite postponement of the reopening of the state’s border. Respondents were also offered a poorly framed question as to whether they “agree the McGowan government could have done more to prepare to open up on February 5”, to which 51% agreed and 29% at least purported to disagree, notwithstanding the obvious absurdity of such a position. The poll had a sample of 637 Western Australian respondents; no field work date was provided, though obviously it was done after Thursday’s announcement.
• YouGov has conducted a poll for the News Corp tabloids that covers an extensive range of issues, but not voting intention, results for which are seemingly being published bit by bit (the full questionnaire is here). There have been two reports from this that I’m aware of, one dealing with state government COVID-19 management. Thirty-five per cent of New South Wales respondents rated their government’s performance positively, 28% neutrally and 34% negatively; Victorians, 42%, 21% and 36%; Queenslanders, 61%, 20% and 19%; Western Australians, 85% positively, 6% neutrally and 8% negatively; South Australians, 48%, 29% and 21%; and Tasmanians, 65%, 21% and 11%. Another report related results on election issue salience, in which respondents were asked to pick two issues out of eight, with 58% choosing cost of living, ahead of 37% for health care, 34% for the economy and 32% for climate change. The poll was conducted December 27 to January 10 from an overall sample of 2297, with state sub-samples ranging from 257 in Tasmania to 507 in New South Wales.
• The Conversation reports on a Deakin Contemporary History Survey of “a representative, random sample of more than 5,000 Australians” finding that 60% overall believe the current date of Australia Day should be maintained, but with a clear age effect in which 53% of those born 1986 or later felt otherwise, with 46% favouring no change.
• According to an AAP report, a CoreData survey of 1292 respondents finds more than 80% of those under 26 and more than 70% of those aged 27 to 41 “support moving the date for the sake of improving relations with the Indigenous population” – a formulation that presumably elicits a more favourable response – which plummeted to “just over 30%” among the 56 to 75 cohort and 25% of those over 75. All that’s revealed of those of in the middle is that “the majority still supported keeping the holiday on its current date”.
• A Roy Morgan SMS poll of 1372 respondents posed the not-all-that-useful-to-my-mind question as to whether as to whether January 26 should be identified as Australia Day or Invasion Day, breaking 65-35 in favour of the former. Cross-tabs here if you’re interested.
GT was commenting on the end of her year as AOTY recently and my recollection was her doubts about what may follow .
Her treatment of the PM was likely spontaneous and speaks volumes to the idiot’s abilities that his reading of the greeting situation was boof-headed and GT reacted…her doubts for the future legacy of her tenure were instantly allayed as the whole ‘PM’s Women Problem’ exploded.
”
A prime minister who lives by the photo op dies by the photo op – and Grace Tame owes Scott Morrison nothing, says Van Badham.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/26/a-prime-minister-who-lives-by-the-photo-op-dies-by-the-photo-op-and-grace-tame-owes-scott-morrison-nothing
”
Photoops PM. 🙂
BB @ 12.01pm:
Spot On.
Your take on Carney, and other fellow travellers in the MSM applies equally to crypto Tories outside the press … like P1, IMO.
GR
I am not disagreeing. I posted the other day that difficult decisions are forced on women. In the case of Morrison he sets it up so that if she co-operates with his photo mania, he wins. He she does not co-operate, he wins.
It a gender reprise of how colonialism works. The colonial power makes the rules and it is always win win for the colonialists.
What we are seeing, IMO, is a substantial number of women no longer agreeing to the rules.
That bailing up will be expressed in the voting booth.
But the vast majority of women will still vote for the Liberals, Nationals, Labor and the Greens.
FWIW, my view is that Grace Tame’s Morrison problem will probably not change any votes. A-E has disagreed. I hope he is right. The women who are switching to the Teals are locked and loaded, IMO.
I note in this post that although several polls are mentioned, you make no comment about the recently completed KORE poll#5
https://korecsr.com/kore-poll/
On reading their recent No5 poll, which has been gleaned from over 5000 respondents, it provided markedly different, some might say radical departures from the run of the mill stuff that PollBludger covers.
I will continue to follow this poll to see if it tallies with the others you cover. As far as I can tell, it is independent.
If it hasn’t been said before.
Grace Tame – on t’aime
”
Finding a common ground between both sides of the political spectrum is key to saving democracy in Western cultures, writes Sue Arnold.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/saving-democracy-bridging-the-leftright-divide,15975
”
When one side nevers shifts from their position, the only common ground as observed in US, UK and Australia is the ground on which the non-shifting side stays.
Interesting hill you’ve chosen to die on here, Steely.
Ashasays:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 12:44 pm
He only has what his political masters give him.
Ven says:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 12:40 pm
”
Finding a common ground between both sides of the political spectrum is key to saving democracy in Western cultures, writes Sue Arnold.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/saving-democracy-bridging-the-leftright-divide,15975
”
When one side nevers shifts from their position, the only common ground as observed in US, UK and Australia is the ground on which the non-shifting side stays.
The tactics of intransigence….pioneered by Begin and Likud and practiced in this country by Abbott, the Nationals, and by Bob Brown and the Greens. In the US the Republicans have become Full Time Rejectors. This has become standard reactionary political strategy. The NSW and Victorian Liberals are trying it out. It is a natural inclination for the Fundamentalist Pentecostals.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/01/27/polls-leadership-ratings-wa-border-closure-australia-day/comment-page-2/#comment-3806781
The more the ‘PM’ is in the spotlight the more obvious his mindset, focus, lack of …, seem[s] stuck in the old, old normal, I am not convinced with all the ‘content’ about curries, tooltime, sports, etc which comes across as a word salad gone online (don’t automate, obliterate, especially non happy path processes, cut out the non conducive federal middle person between demand and supply, best example for recall provisions/ popular initiatives I have seen so far, weakness not a strength, anymore than the seemingly pathological inability to be transparent, integer, accountable (stop modelling on totalitarians or theocrazies, supposedly the ‘PM’ in a way too liberal/ regressive, extreme disaster capitalism, and not enough social/ progressive, democracy), whilst there is no action appropriate to the challenge/ problem on governance, pandemic, climate emergency/ crisis/ change, social support after corporate welfare, powershift …
Never failing to turn a solution into a problem, the ‘PM’ doesn’t even seem to get first of all do no harm, let alone mitigation, adaptation, transformation (he’s so far beyond neoconservative, real soon now he’ll discover flags everywhere, lapel, stands, massive rah rah rah ceremonies, right after the launch of his my struggle book, any opportunity to advance Australia (like #HerToo, fires and flooding and extreme weather, unvaxed tennis player making it onshore before getting deported, even the CWoA acquiring the copyright to the ATSI flags, … tone deaf doesn’t begin to cover it, though I guess we’ll get another photo-op handing over the taxpayer-funded ownership paperwork with a ceremony at the tent embassy, between now and federal election day), fair, seems to be perceived by they and their fellow travellers as a threat).
Anything that doesn’t focus on blowing humanity up, agriculture, resources, like [advanced rather than assembly] manufacturing, services, knowledge or experiences?
The LyingN(C)P are a clear and present danger to your health, security and wealth. (I will have another look at the iHumanDevelopmentI/ SDG (also dubbed the closeness to Scandinavia or Singapore or Switzerland score, I can’t remember, anti-corruption, useful FoI, binding plebescites, public financing of election campaigns ….)/ GNHappiness and WCompetitivenessI scorecards to get beyond pandemic normal to the next normal, but my guess would be America sank more than the UK4 which sank more than downunder, though perhaps Canada and New Zealand didn’t. )
They are all about lobbyists and donors (such as a gong for a mining heiress on 2022’s national holiday downunder), haves, never mind the people, have nots.
I was reading the sequel [After Shock] to Toffler’s Future Shock over the holidays, also the Economist looking forward into 2022 and several of its Quarterlies, The End of Certainty Quarterly Essay, doubt the ‘PM’ ever considers anything this side of the dark ages, Renaissance, Enlightenment …., certainly not serfs beyond courtiers/ acolytes/ merchant kings/ warlords.
I’d like to see a progressive alliance of Greens/ Liebor and independents taking over post the upcoming election (Libs lite/ salon socialists worry me i/c blue collar transition from not green jobs, 2010?), though I will cross vote between house and senate (the Fibs/ Nats build nbn/ NBN, Liebor architected it, neither seems to have cottoned on to holistic regional development, quarter acre blocks and acreage, instead of ever higher extended metro population density).
Then again, may be a result like 2007, 1983, 1972 would be preferable?
It certainly wouldn’t be the first time traditional, rather than salon socialist, Labor would have to clean up after a BTR regime, be it WW1/ Great Depression to WW2, Oil Crisis, Asian Currency Crisis, GW1/ Desert Storm, GWOT/ GFC/ pandemic …
VCT Et3e says:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 12:52 pm
Pot after pot of left-overs, bubbling. 6 full stops. No crockery whatsoever.
I agree that Tame and Higgins courageous stand will have the greatest electoral effect in the seats where the Voices Independents are running.
From day one of the Voices movement, the treatment of women has been front and centre.
Desperat times in the Big Bash…
😆
One of the criticisms of Grace Tame’s refusal to toe the ‘be nice to arseholes when they are the PM’ line is that her actions damaged her cause.
It has me struggling to work out exactly what is her ’cause’. As usual, I now realise it has been there all along. Grace Tame made her name, quite literally, in her campaign to be able to speak her name as a victim of a paedophile. She argued forcefully for the right to speak out on this issue, rather than be assigned (to better hide her ‘shame’) to a quiet, smiling place where she ‘belonged’.
So her actions in standing her ground in the PM’s forced photo op are actually consistent with her ’cause’ not undermining it. And a hell of a lot of women commentators have picked up on just that.
And on another point that was discussed yesterday. The Liar’s comment to her after her Australia Day award speech last year of “I bet it felt good to get that out” was defended as well meant by our resident misogynist. Which may have been an acceptable answer until one actually goes to the speech she made in which she went into great detail about what was done to her by the paedophile, reliving the whole traumatic period. The Liar obviously has not experienced trauma if he thought it felt good to tell the whole nation in ugly detail the experience she underwent that did so much appalling damage to her.
It may have been well meant, but it is just another example of what an appalling unfeeling bastard the Liar is.
Ven at 12.40pm re Sue Arnold’s article on ‘common ground.’
I haven’t read the article, the headline and summary are sufficient.
Can Sue Arnold show me the ‘common ground’ on climate change in this country? On asylum seeker policy?
Labor has a less ambitious climate policy than I think is needed. Yet there isn’t ‘common ground’ on this: the Coalition policy is net zero ACTION!
Labor’s asylum seeker policy is abhorrent to me. It is slightly better than the Coalition’s.
The Right regards ‘common ground’ as agreement with them. Well, they can get f@#%ed.
As Biden did in 2020, Labor is finding ‘contrasting ground’: reasonableness contrasting with RWNJs etc.
I suspect, should Labor win Government, it will have an easier time because our parliamentary system is slightly less stupid than the US Congress.
‘Common ground’ only exists in conversation. Is conversation possible with Morrison/Joyce/Canavan/Christensen et al? There’s your answer, Sue Arnold.
By the way, shortly after Turnbull rolled Abbott, the Coalition rode high in the polls. Turnbull spoke of ‘innovation’. For a brief moment, I considered voting Coalition, as Labor’s asylum seeker policy wasn’t much better than the Coalition’s and Turnbull might’ve at least addressed climate change.
But Dutton et al told him to forget innovation and talk about immigration. Turnbull valued keeping his own job more than risking it to provide leadership. The Coalition descended in the polls and barely won in 2016.
‘Common ground’ exists between reasonable people – therein lies the problem.
Not to mention that Hunt and Morrison, in their ongoing agony back-patting charade, and Perrottet, equally, have been pushing the falsehood that were are, as a country, and a state, super well vaccinated – over 95%, blah blah. Blessedly, today’s cabinet meeting will reconsider the matter of what is full vaccination (dismissed last week by Morrison), and as Daniel Andrews hinted and is clearly pushing for, the definition of ‘fully vaccinated’ will be dragged kicking and screaming into the post-Omicron world and be now Three Doses.
”
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
·
19h
So Rupert, why not tell us more about your tremendous respect for the office of Prime Minister … what pathetic hypocrisy. Can’t Scotty from Marketing handle Grace Tame’s directness without Murdoch rushing into defend their man in The Lodge?
https://mobile.twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/1486222490150277121/photo/1
TPOF
“She argued forcefully for the right to speak out on this issue, rather than be assigned (to better hide her ‘shame’) to a quiet, smiling place where she ‘belonged’.”
Modern court suppression and non-publication orders derived from model provisions developed by all state and territory Attorneys General in 2009 and 2010. They are not about hiding victims or their shame or otherwise assigning them.
Morrison’s trick with Grace Tame was the same as his photobombing effort with Emmanuel Macron, the bushfire-surviving woman from Cobargo and the exhausted RFS volunteers back in the shed (plus plenty more examples). He makes out that he’s everybody’s friend. They’re all really glad to see him. See? They’re smiling and shaking hands. Click. Photo-op over.
He did it yesterday, when he called India’s PM Modi his “good friend”. Modi is a man he’s probably only met two or three times, and then fleetingly, or while getting ready for a group photo. How can they be “good friends”? Ditto Trump. Ditto Boris Johnson. Ditto anyone who comes within coo’ee of him.
Morrison presents himself as coming to the Prime Ministership fully formed. He’s everybody’s friend, their good friend. He has their back. He’s ambitious for them. Until he isn’t.
It’s the classic tactic of all lurk merchants and influence peddlers. They are good friends with a bloke who’s mates with a bloke who went to school with some other bloke. They all meet at the races, or at CHOGM, or AUKUS. Whether the friendships are real or not, as long as they can convince the victim they are real is all thaf’s required.
I attended GP for my dad to get his booster. There was a line outside of people awaiting their booster.
Mainly older people amongst the crowd. It is reassuring to see.
U.S. COVID update: More than 3,500 new deaths
– New cases: 723,973 ………………………. – New deaths: 3,551
– States reporting: 50/50
– In hospital: 146,455 (-2,226)
– In ICU: 25,353 (-391)
898,680 total deaths now
“Modern court suppression and non-publication orders derived from model provisions developed by all state and territory Attorneys General in 2009 and 2010. They are not about hiding victims or their shame or otherwise assigning them.”
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
The implosion of capitalism, the dead end for social democracy, and birth of techno-feudalism: Yanis Varoufakis talks with David Chapman.
https://youtu.be/zu0lNnXAiL0
Rex
‘From day one of the Voices movement, the treatment of women has been front and centre.’
Well, no. Because Voices formed to get rid of a woman MP.
Nearly nine years on, and yes, it’s become a focus.
From being at one of Kylea Tink’s early get togethers, I do not recall women’s issues was a subject which she addressed in her remarks but that is no to say it will not feature prominently.
She has posters up, BTW.
There is only one person and one party (ok, two, co-aligned) being damaged by the ongoing imbroglio over the Grace Tame episode, and it’s not Grace Tame, nor Labor. It’s the duplicitous PM and his fragile white knuckled hangers on.
“ From day one of the Voices movement, the treatment of women has been front and centre.’
Well, no. Because Voices formed to get rid of a woman MP.”
Well, Zoomster, if one considers that a ‘crumb collector’ like dear Sophie was an enabler for the public treatment by Very Important Men of the ‘Wrong women’ in public office – as I do – then perhaps Rex has a point. No?
Steelydan @ Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 10:53 am
Your opinion:
“Lots of support but I just cant be seen with you at the moment Grace.”
Fact:
You think Albanese will change after the election is called? We shall see 😉
The statistics keep on proving that being vaccinated is your best chance of protection from Covid.
Great pic from the Mildura storm last night.
Kevin Haddacks@KevinHaddacks · 3h
Storm at Mildura lastnight @VicStormChasers @MilduraWeekly
Shellbell says:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 1:12 pm
TPOF
“She argued forcefully for the right to speak out on this issue, rather than be assigned (to better hide her ‘shame’) to a quiet, smiling place where she ‘belonged’.”
Modern court suppression and non-publication orders derived from model provisions developed by all state and territory Attorneys General in 2009 and 2010. They are not about hiding victims or their shame or otherwise assigning them.
____________________________________
1. Are you saying that the provision in Tasmanian law that stopped Grace Tame from revealing herself as the victim of a paedophile without going through an expensive legal process (with no guarantee of success) dates only from those model provisions?
2. If so, what was the purpose of such provisions?
A_E
No is right.
I was here when Voices was being formed.
The concerns were about the treatment of the electorate, not of women in particular.
Grace Tame should have insisted on an elbow-bump instead of a handshake with Morrison or put a surgical glove on before touching that rancid piece of shyte.
Well done, young woman, may your example resonate.
This debate shows a real deep tone deafness in politics where people have stopped listening to different opinions.
The sixers falling over the line last night and dragging the three or four of them still fit into tomorrow nights final was most excellent.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/jan/26/terry-pratchett-jack-monroe-vimes-boots-poverty-index
Yay for rational economics. 🙂
Mexicanbeemer says:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 1:42 pm
This debate shows a real deep tone deafness in politics where people have stopped listening to different opinions.
____________________________________
Sometimes the answer is not ‘there are good people on both sides’.
Steelydan,
You are squirming like an upside down crab with its pincers in a knot.
Morrison has taken a direct hit. He had no idea Grace Tame would give him the cold shoulder, because he cannot conceive of anyone questioning his god-given wonderfulness.
If he did, he would never have organised that photo-op.
Morrison’s biggest failure is with female voters. He is toxic sludge in that demographic. Grace has given us photographic evidence of his ugly noxiousness. She has demonstrated that it is OK to snub PM Morrison, beyond the minimal requirements of form.
How much easier will it be to snub him and The Liberal party in the privacy of tge ballot booth?
Steeley, give it up. You are trying to resuscitate a tattered mannequin.
And that emotional-violence of his ‘getting it off your chest remark to Grace after her AotY speech, well, she got him back good and proper.
”
Victoriasays:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 1:12 pm
I attended GP for my dad to get his booster. There was a line outside of people awaiting their booster.
Mainly older people amongst the crowd. It is reassuring to see.
”
Yesterday, I read an article where it was mentioned that 2/3 of people in UK, who got Omicron, got COVID earlier.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-60132096
TPOF
At one time, we could say there was good people on both sides, but not now. The good people of the Liberal Party have either left the party, been de-powered/kicked out, or are in hiding. What is left is the dregs of humanity.
Bulldust, you’re probably right about Riverina, but Al Grasby did win it for Labor in 1969 and 1972.
imacca @ #133 Thursday, January 27th, 2022 – 1:48 pm
—
That is the problem with economic rationalism. The clue is in the name, it is irrational
TPOF
Its not about there being good people on both sides but that both sides seem to not listen or want to understand the otherside and for many people their reaction is not political but how they think people should behave.
”
TPOFsays:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 1:52 pm
Mexicanbeemer says:
Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 1:42 pm
This debate shows a real deep tone deafness in politics where people have stopped listening to different opinions.
____________________________________
Sometimes the answer is not ‘there are good people on both sides’.
”
So is Collateral damage ok and unavoidable as Rumsfeld said about Iraq war (or was it Afghan war?)?
Lets call a spade a spade.
Most people who are demanding respect for the PM now, were the same people who justified showing no respect for Labor PMs in the past, and they will do it again.
So the shoe is on the other foot for now, and they should recognise it.
Useful to carry this if there is a possibility that SfM will demand a handshake.
TPOF
“1. Are you saying that the provision in Tasmanian law that stopped Grace Tame from revealing herself as the victim of a paedophile without going through an expensive legal process (with no guarantee of success) dates only from those model provisions?
No – non-publication orders have been around for decades. Derryn Hinch fell foul of them.
The current laws may differ from jurisdiction to jurisdiction but I am guessing Michael Lavarch wanted to standarise them.
2. If so, what was the purpose of such provisions?
Primarily to protect the identity of victims who may not come forward if their names are published. That provides a bonus for accused in some cases where their identification may identify their victims.
TPOF @ Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 12:09 pm
Thank you for that article by Samantha Maiden. I note a similar article by Natalie Brown @ news.com.au.
https://www.news.com.au/national/why-kenneth-hayne-photo-exposes-grace-tame-critics-double-standards/news-story/bbb7115bb935cd9d0d2905af686cfc6c
Interesting when new.com.au are providing supportive articles. As previously mentioned by other bludgers, definitely moving to a bet each way position, allowing The Australian to pitch to the rusted ons.
Nicko
If Grace or anyone else showed disdain to a ALP PM this site would go into meltdown. If Dylan Alcott criticises something a future Albo government does people here will go on the attack.