Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
Reading Mr Growler’s heartfelt defence of Morrison re the Devonport tragedy – and it is a national tragedy – I am wondering when we will get his tearful defence of Morrison NOT doing anything whatsoever for the four Sudanese kids FROM THE ONE FAMILY tragically burned to death in a recent house fire. That was a national tragedy as well. Anything regarding deaths of kids, multiple or otherwise, is a tragedy. It is not a black and white issue. But for Morrison, maybe it is…
https://twitter.com/RupertsConscie1/status/1472196491850620930/photo/1
This tells us everything we need to know about Morrison. Most here already know that. But some don’t want see the obvious.
From Graham Lea‘s tweets linked here upthread this morning:
” Graham Lea
@evolvable
·
23h
People all around the country now understand that a vote for Liberal is a vote to allow Barnaby to hold the government to ransom. Voting in a moderate-leaning Liberal member is about as useful as voting in a dead fish.”
Adam ‘no cut through’ Bandt should put the cue in the rack
😆
Wood is almost right.
I think Waters should be installed as Leader and the communication focus shifted to flooding social media with basic social/environmental policy that affects everyday Australians, WITHOUT NEGATIVE REFERENCES TO OTHER PARTIES.
casey briggs
@CaseyBriggs
NSW Health says the majority of today’s cases are likely Omicron, and that with the high number of cases, “NSW Health will only undertake genomic sequencing for the Omicron variant in the circumstances where it will make a clinical difference to the care of a patient.”
NSW Health: “For instance, where it will inform treatment choices as some therapies work with Delta but not for Omicron, and in situations where it will inform public health action.”
So from here, we don’t know precisely how many cases are Omicron vs Delta.
But it’s safe to assume that a growing majority are Omicron, and sooner or later, virtually all NSW cases will be Omicron
(probably sooner rather than later)
Greensborough Growler @ #190 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 11:34 am
Tennessee Williams does tend to blur into one never ending repressed sexual nightmare. Stanley is from Streetcar.
https://youtu.be/Er_yEIE2I2o
https://youtu.be/I1AznThtAAQ
I really should do something around the house.
So according to big Roy – laying flowers at a memorial is proof of Morrison’s racism.
Itza,
Right guy, wrong play.
Oops!
Aqualung,
Cracker!
”
Quollsays:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 11:10 am
As if to prove the Shit party vs Shit-lite party meme
Here’s the Shit party history on donations
So why would neither Shit party nor Shit-lite party have any interest in discussing donations reform or state capture by fossil fuels interests?
”
When exposed to the facts Quoll flicks the switch to bat sh** crazy mode like Qanons.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:02 pm
So according to big Roy – laying flowers at a memorial is proof of Morrison’s racism.
_______
We have reached peak Stooge at the moment.
Probably, when in juxtaposition to his not laying flowers at a black family’s memorial.
Lars,
Were they all white?
Stop making a Foolvio of yourself.
I was talking to the organ grinder …
Yes good point GG, maybe a coded white supremacist message ?
you know what really, really upsets me,
The ABC showing scummo press conferences in full while are full of LIES, while slicing and dicing Victorian covid press conferences that actually contain IMPORTANT INFORMATION for me the be able to maintain my health
Fulvio Sammut says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:12 pm
I was talking to the organ grinder …
___________
I thought you were the organ grinder!
Mexicanbeemer
There is a case for removing Robert Lee statues because he tuned Lincoln down and choose to led the confederacy.
___________________________________
Actually, that’s not a case for removing Lee’s statues. The case for removing Lee’s statues is that they were erected (along with statues of other Confederate ‘heroes’) in the late 19th and early 20th centuries by Jim Crow politicians celebrating the regained ability to repress blacks. They are therefore not celebrating these people but directly celebrating repression and specifically what those people stood for.
In the case of people whose statues were erected for other reasons, but who have an ugly side to their history, the argument is that it is more appropriate to leave the statues in place, but to attach plaques explaining their uglier side – as slave owners and slave traders, for example.
And I thought you were his offsider.
Major parties dial up fundraising efforts in person and over Zoom – Apr 2021
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-parties-dial-up-fundraising-efforts-in-person-and-over-zoom-20210401-p57ftd.html#comments
The Coalition and Labor are ramping up fundraising efforts ahead of the next federal election, charging up to $10,000 for online or in-person dinners with Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and their frontbench teams.
Such small donations for access the public and no doubt party members never get
Labor walked away from donations reform, a corruption commission and truth in political advertising legislation when they had the opportunity over a decade ago
They got to the 2nd reading regarding donations reform and truth in political advertising with the Greens and indies, then walked away refusing to deliver it
https://theyvoteforyou.org.au/divisions/representatives/2010-11-17/1
Labor hack statements are meaningless as Andrew Wilkie would I’m sure attest to as well after his experience
As indicated even in the most recent drop of donations data (Feb 2021) there was over $50 million dollars of dark money going to both the Shit party and the Shit-lite party in the 2019-2020 financial year, most recent data available
https://publicintegrity.org.au/50-million-in-secret-political-donations/
Where’s the evidence for any change in corporate take or disclosure?
I continue to be amazed how many apparent Labor members continue to be suckered into believing their own party BS lines when the actions of their party and the powerful interests of the factions within it seem as clearly contradictory as Dave Sharma voting with Barnacle.
The never ending partisanship of PB seems to only reinforce what a useless bunch of weasel word excuses can be proffered despite all the real world evidence to the contrary. Blah, blah, blah…
Meanwhile people who seriously consider the role of money in government and its influence against the public interest have some meaningful stuff to say and read
https://publicintegrity.org.au/projects/money-in-politics/
Also
The Birth of Democracy, as written in Auspol 2021 style
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfUPgYPnFg4
Merry Christmas, Taylormade.
“ So according to big Roy – laying flowers at a memorial is proof of Morrison’s racism.”
Time for another Mortein spray again.
A textbook example of your MO of misrepresentation of the obvious and fair point being made by other contributors.
I can’t think a single contribution that you have made to this blog that doesn’t involve some sort of parasitic behaviour.
What is the point of you Liberal Von Bot? The aspiration to one day transform into a real horse fly?
AE, Go write another submarine treatise. Your animosity towards Dear Lars is totally inappropriate.
Quoll
Labor in power – in Victoria, for example – have followed through, with Victoria’s legislation being amongst the strictest in the country (on balance, the ABC fact check decided it was a ‘fair call’ to say they were the strictest).
It’s a pain in the neck, administration wise, for small branches like my own – we’re required to declare every donation, no matter how small, and confirm the identity of the person making it (we’re talking asking someone who’s buying a raffle ticket to provide ID!)
If you can link to this Crikey article, it’s worth a read.
When the muppets call you puppets, you know you’re getting under their skin
BY DAVID HARDAKER
Poor BoJo he’s copping it from both ends. Those that think he’s just a wanker & those that think he’s a soft right wing wanker
“The Green boosters are panicking”
***
The hysterical, wishful thinking from the Labor Right continues unabated as a defensive response to the continued Pasokification of their party.
Actually, I’m not sure that Pasokification is the right word to describe what’s happening to Labor – the ALP started their stagnation and decline well before the PASOK party that the term is named for. Perhaps it should be called Laborification!
Labor’s primary vote in 1983: 49.48%
Labor’s primary vote in 2019: 33.34%
I see these two fuckwits are back defending the indefensible. All Morrison has to explain is why one tragedy is worse than the other. He seems to pick and choose. If it were me and I HAD to choose, I would have chosen the one where four members of the one family died. Morrison would turn up at the opening of an envelope if he thought there was something for him. But he didn’t turn up. Why?
C@tmomma at 11:54 am
What surprises me is that a random sample of say 100 of the positives isn’t checked for Omicron. You could then also ascertain roughly where Omicron is geographically and have some idea of its spread.
Otherwise it’s safer to assume:
Roy Orbison @ #NaN Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 12:28 pm
They really are just a couple of sad individuals with a completely transparent schtick.
“ AE, Go write another submarine treatise. Your animosity towards Dear Lars is totally inappropriate.”
Get William to forward me you postal address. You obviously need an industrial strength dose of Vermox – or better still, Ivermectin – to de-L’arse yourself and so regain your health, strength and focus to be the blog troll you obviously aspire to. Consider it a xmas present.
How would you know what happened big Roy?
Perhaps there was no public memorial, perhaps the family requested privacy , perhaps he met with them privately ? You don’t know.
Your so blinded the facts don’t really matter – it’s seeing what you want to see to fit your preferred narrative .
Shame on you for being so partisan that other peoples grief is fair game for you.
I agree with GGs earlier post regarding the inappropriate criticism of Morrison over his visit to Tasmania in the wake of the unspeakable tragedy that occurred down there. Somebody had to say it and GG stepped up to the plate.
Like GG, I can’t stand Morrison as a person or his politics. He is an egotistical showman and a liar and deserves to go at the next election. But he is not a monster. He could not have helped but been deeply moved by what he saw and heard down there.
I also think some of the criticism and assumptions made here regarding his home life and his relationship with his wife and children have at times been way out of line. There is no need for any of that. Let the personal stay personal and just focus on the politics I say. There is more than enough to criticise him for over that.
Apparently, the Libs have a $16B war chest to distribute at the coming Election.
But,………..
“ Your so blinded the facts don’t really matter – it’s seeing what you want to see to fit your preferred narrative .”
Talk about projection.
Well … I guess its not like Moses Morrison has … form … or a track record … (or any sort of personal history really that hasn’t been carefully curated by his Comms team). … so, why not Australia? let’s all give this fat fuck the benefit of the doubt for like the hundredth time in his sorry arsed career.
Yoda: Always two there are, no more no less. A master and an apprentice.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:33 pm
Get William to forward me you postal address. You obviously need an industrial strength dose of Vermox – or better still, Ivermectin – to de-L’arse yourself and so regain your health, strength and focus to be the blog troll you obviously aspire to. Consider it a xmas present.
___________
You take yourself far too seriously. All that earnestness has got to be exhausting.
Bystander @ Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:36 pm
Hear! Hear!
p.s. It is masterful politics. Has largely changed the narrative and many on here have fallen hook, line and sinker. While Morrison should have gone early, he is as good, if not a better campaigner than Howard. Let’s bring it back to the lack of booster supply. The economic vandalism. The stuff-ups in foreign policy.
It was Morrison himself who brought his family into the political arena and deserved to be criticised for using his family members as excuses why he did not do his job as Prime minister
Scott @ Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:47 pm
Admiral Ackbar: It’s a trap!
Firefox,
If we use your dishonest method of counting the number of voters ( like you did a few days ago when it was pointed out the percentage of greens voters had gone down ) then there were more Labor primary votes in 2019 compared to 1983.
So using your methodology, Labor’s vote has increased !
“Labor in power – in Victoria, for example – have followed through, with Victoria’s legislation being amongst the strictest in the country (on balance, the ABC fact check decided it was a ‘fair call’ to say they were the strictest).”
***
Why not give a shout-out to the awesome Greens/Labor power-sharing ACT Government which has lead the way as usual? It really is a massive shame that Labor seeks to disown the ACT Government and pretend it doesn’t exist all the time. Labor should be proud of working with the Greens. Power-sharing government has a track record of delivering.
https://www.elections.act.gov.au/funding_and_disclosure/changes-to-electoral-campaign-finance-laws-in-the-act-as-they-will-apply-from-1-july-2021
Chris Billington’s great work continues:
_____________________________________________
@Chrisbilbo
NSW R_eff as of December 19th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 2.89 ± 0.20
Expected numbers if the current trend continues:
day cases 68% range
Mon: 3404 3014—3810
Tue: 4116 3624—4632
Wed: 4964 4345—5616
Thu: 5977 5202—6810
Fri: 7192 6212—8234
Sat: 8621 7402—9955
Sun: 10324 8788—11978
Doubling time is 3.3 days.
It’s virtually certain it’s almost all omicron – NSW has indicated this and it’s pretty obvious from the growth.
When they publish their next surveillance report we’ll get some numbers but would be surprising if it wasn’t 80%+ at this point.
The Hunter region: R_eff = 24.89 ± 3.48
Illawarra region: R_eff = 2.00 ± 0.43
Western New South Wales: R_eff = 4.44 ± 3.11
_____________________________________________________
When do they go for masks? My guess will be ahead of xmas eve mass (spreader events).
Some new Omicron research
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/omicron-may-not-damaging-lungs-covid-variants-says-study/
Morrison doesnt care who he hurts when he blames others for his own mistakes
Study 1 from Cambridge..
Omicron may be less efficient at replicating in the lungs than previous Covid variants, according to hopeful new UK laboratory research.
A study conducted by scientists at the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease suggested that mutations on the virus’ spike protein, which make it able to evade antibodies, may also reduce its ability to attack the lungs and cause severe disease.
“We demonstrate significantly lower infectivity of lung organoids and Calu-3 lung cells,” said the Cambridge preprint, which was posted late on Friday night.
“These observations highlight that omicron has gained immune evasion properties whilst compromising on properties associated with replication and pathogenicity
.”
Study 2 from Japan
According to a Japanese laboratory study published last week, omicron multiplies roughly 70 times faster than delta variant in the human bronchus – the tubes that carry air from the windpipe to the lungs – but not in the lung itself.
Dr Michael Chan Chi-wai, the study’s principal investigator, said the research may suggest omicron is less severe but – like other experts – warned that a very transmissible variant could lead to more deaths, even if it is milder.
He added: “It is important to note that the severity of disease in humans is not determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection, which may lead to dysregulation of the innate immune system, such as a cytokine storm.
“It is also noted that, by infecting many more people, a very infectious virus may cause more severe disease and death, even though the virus itself may be less pathogenic.
“Therefore, taken together with our recent studies showing that the omicron variant can partially escape immunity from vaccines and past infection, the overall threat from the omicron variant is likely to be very significant.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/omicron-may-not-damaging-lungs-covid-variants-says-study/