Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
Good to see the Greens Party major donor belling the cat on Bandt.
FoxxyLove
“Why not give a shout-out to the awesome Greens/Labor power-sharing ACT Government”
On the other hand.. why? The ACT is just an aggrandised local council.
I feel the need to repeat myself:
Never forget that Scott Morrison was the guy who was quite prepared to keep mourning families separate after they lost loved ones, and, more pertinently, their children, at sea off Christmas Island.
Bystander says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:36 pm
I agree with GGs earlier post regarding the inappropriate criticism of Morrison over his visit to Tasmania in the wake of the unspeakable tragedy that occurred down there. Somebody had to say it and GG stepped up to the plate.
For mine, as someone who has experienced the sudden accidental death of a loved one, all I can say is that the shock can be totally overwhelming. In my case, the accident was carried on the front page on The West and on free-to-air tv news with footage taken by chopper. This only made things so much worse – so much more grievous – than they already were. The effects on the then-young bereaved children have yet to fade, more than 15 years later. The greatest needs of the grieving are shelter – privacy – and the embrace of beloved friends and family.
Publicity is just ghastly. It is absolutely dreadful. It forces the bereaved to re-witness their horror. Morrison has publicly exploited this tragedy for political purposes. He could have sent his condolences privately and solemnly. Instead he has tried to make political gains from the deaths of children. He is a monster in my opinion. In saying this, I’m sure I speak for all of my own family, who experienced a loss that we will never be able to forget.
Kakuru @ #NaN Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 12:54 pm
And I’m like, is that the best you’ve got? A-gain for the eleventieth time. 😐
Firefox
Why? The question was whether or not Labor would follow through on campaign donation laws once in government.
The Victorian government actions are evidence that it will, whether the Greens are ‘power sharing’ or not.
“If we use your dishonest method of counting the number of voters”
***
Oh, so it’s ok for Labor to pick and choose which way they want to look at the vote but not us? Why doesn’t that surprise me? One rule for themselves, a totally different one for everyone else.
*rolls eyes*
Labor’s share of the vote has plummeted over the last 30 odd years while the Greens have risen to become the party of the progressive left. That may be hard for the Labor Right to accept but it’s the undeniable truth.
From the Guardian blog. My friend down there was afraid of this. Their hospital system will not cope if it gets away at all.
Tasmania mandating masks indoors
Tasmania is mandating masks indoors as the state records three new Covid-19 infections after reopening its border, AAP reports.
It takes the number of active cases in Tasmania to seven.
One of Sunday’s new cases was a woman who arrived in Launceston from Sydney on Wednesday and visited a number of retail venues. Another was a man who arrived in Hobart from Melbourne on Friday and the third was a family member of a previously confirmed case.
“What we’re seeing occur at the moment is not unexpected. We said that we would see Covid in the state,” premier Peter Gutwein told reporters.
Masks will be mandatory across all indoor settings, public transport and ride shares from 12.01am on Tuesday.
“We’ve done this before. It’s important. In fact, a lot of Tasmanians are already doing it,” Gutwein said.
Slightly more than 91 per cent of Tasmanians aged 16 and older are fully vaccinated.
sprocket_ @ Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 12:54 pm
As said previously, Reff is an exponential function. Hospitalisation (or death) is a proportion i.e. a linear function. Both matter, but exponential functions escalate quickly. Like comparing compound v simple interest.
Firefox, you’re the delusional one who tried to counter that the green vote has gone up when it has in fact gone down. You did this by ignoring the percent of voters and using the actual numbers.
Why do you lie like a scomo ?
Is it to fool yourself ?
“Never forget that Scott Morrison was the guy who was quite prepared to keep mourning families separate after they lost loved ones, and, more pertinently, their children, at sea off Christmas Island.”
***
Never forget that Labor teams up with the Coalition to abuse innocent asylum seekers. “KK From Marketing” shows up for a photo op with some and gives the Laborites the warm and fuzzies, after which they return to pretending that asylum seekers don’t exist. It’s easier for them to abuse them that way. Out of sight, out of mind.
nath @ #215 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 12:06 pm
Nath and L’arse right into the circular arse sniffing and licking, on cue, again. Sad, but sick-funny all the same. It’s not hard to identify the rabid curs. They self report, and project.
I don’t have a problem with Morrison presenting at the tragedy with wife and showing emotion.
I also don’t have a problem with me highlighting the hypocrisy of his ‘gov out of your life’ cheap simplistic divisive BS sloganeering when the tragedy highlights the importance of government to communities – in funding, rules/laws and expressing/encouraging compassion.
True, the Labor-positive plurality has been plundered by the LNP and the Greens. Consequently, reformist ambitions are utterly fucked up in this country.
Unless and until the destruction of the plurality is reversed, there will be continuing rule of, for and by the Reactionaries.
There are two favourable signs in the arena at present. First, the Green vote has stopped climbing. Their Labor-phobic campaigning is becoming more and more self-defeating.
And second, the Reactionary plurality is splitting in the centre. It’s now fragmenting between the pop-Right, the theocrats and the modernist/centrist bourgeoisie. These trends might help Labor…than again, they might not. The split in Labor-positive opinion is very deeply entrenched and continuously subject to reinforcement by the Green-tinted Schism, by the latter-day Groupers.
For mine, the chances that Labor will win the coming election remain 1/6.
Bludging Bloos @ Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:09 pm
I suspect the Teals are not helpful to Labor. Past voting behaviour of elected members primarily favours the Coalition, as expected based on the electorate. Should it come down to it, they may do a Democrat, side with the Coalition and self-immolate.
Vogon Poet @ #242 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 9:50 am
😆
Did you know if Greens support of 1,482,923 votes at the 2019 election was taken to the 1901 election, the Greens would have achieved a primary vote of about 65%. 🙂
Firefox says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:04 pm
“Never forget that Scott Morrison was the guy who was quite prepared to keep mourning families separate after they lost loved ones, and, more pertinently, their children, at sea off Christmas Island.”
Never forget, the Greens are pro-trafficking. They are the pitiless enablers of the gangsters. The latter-day slavers do the dirty works of the Greens and the LNP. They have always been willing to make political capital from exemplary human misery. This is one of their greatest hits.
For this alone – never mind their other errors – the Greens should be placed next to last on Labor HTVs.
Vogon, you’re floundering mate. You can put whatever spin on it you like, the reality is that it’s Labor who has been either stagnant or in decline in a big way, not the Greens.
It doesn’t really matter which set of numbers you look at, the raw vote or the percentage, the story is the same.
Labor’s primary vote in 1993: 4,751,390
Greens’ primary vote in 1993: 196,702
Labor’s primary vote in 2019: 4,752,631
Greens’ primary vote in 2019: 1,482,923
That’s an increase of 1,241 for Labor vs an increase of 1,286,221 for the Greens over the span of 26 years. Speaks for itself.
1,241 voters over two and a half decades. Yikes! I knew it was bad but when you put it like that… holy shit! What the hell have you guys been doing?
Good on the Prime Minister Morrison for attending with his wife at the school. Since he was in Tasmania anyway it is the least that would be expected.
It is a highly unusual event and a deep tragedy given the time of year and the unbearable trauma of those present.
The emotion of such an attendance would be very high.
I remember wandering around the area where Madeline and Allanah thought they were playing hide and seek with Martin Bryant. Overwrought and that was 14 years after the event.
Griff says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:15 pm
Bludging Bloos @ Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:09 pm
I suspect the Teals are not helpful to Labor. Past voting behaviour of elected members primarily favours the Coalition, as expected based on the electorate. Should it come down to it, they may do a Democrat, side with the Coalition and self-immolate.
I agree….they’re LIb-Lite. They are inherently Labor-phobic and confine themselves to representing a few themes that are either neglected or exploited by the Heavy. They have more in common with the Greens than with Labor.
For those Greens supporters who can access the comments on this. Very illuminating.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/greens-all-time-top-donor-considers-switch-to-climate-independents-20211215-p59hov.html#comments
C@t
You are absolutely right. We should not forget his whole attitude towards those asylum seekers. It was disgraceful and one of the reasons why I can’t stand him. But I still think GG was right. As Prime Minister he had a duty to offer his condolences on behalf of all Australians and those who criticised him for it would have been just as scathing, probably more so, if he had chosen not to go. A clear case of heads I win, tales you lose.
Shellbell
Good on the Prime Minister Morrison for attending with his wife at the school. Since he was in Tasmania anyway it is the least that would be expected.
____________________________________
I wouldn’t say ‘good on’, because it was no more than would have been expected. If he hadn’t turned up there would have been more criticism and justified. To the extent that he maximised the positive publicity to him, that’s not going to matter one way or the other in the scheme of things.
In the end, the real electoral issues are trustworthiness and leadership. He fails badly on both counts and Labor will address these points aggressively – without spending a moment on examining his response to this singular tragedy.
End of comment on this issue.
Firefox says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:22 pm
……you’re floundering mate.
The Grouper rejoices in the demolition of the reformist plurality. The Groupers – imposters all – are implicitly pro-Reactionary.
“For those Greens supporters who can access the comments on this. Very illuminating.”
***
Honestly I’d take all of those with a massive truck full of salt, most of them seem to be Laborites having a crack at the Greens. Lots of the same old false allegations about the CPRS, words like “woke” being thrown around, and tired old slogans such as “don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good” and the like. It’s instructive as to what the Labor Right thinks but that’s about it.
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases continue to rise, up 47% from last week ( weekend results )
– New cases: 77,730 ………………….. – New deaths: 454
– In hospital: 67,703 (+183)
– In ICU: 16,202 (+125)
827,206 total deaths now
Bystander,
More so because as Shellbell points out, he and his wife were in Tasmania anyway.
The yin and yang of appropriate behaviour is always as Rick Nelson sang many years ago, “If you can’t please everyone, you’ve got to please yourself”.
It was the right call to go and there are no votes or brownie points for anyone contending otherwise.
“The Grouper rejoices in the demolition of the reformist plurality. The Groupers – imposters all – are implicitly pro-Reactionary.”
***
That’s not exactly how I would describe Labor but at least The Artist is honest about the establishment being demolished.
The NSW liberal Party will rue the day and will continue to rue the days that Victor Dominello is not the leader of the NSW Liberal Party
More than 10,000 people have gotten Covid in the past 5 days and record case numbers reported today, yet Perrottet won’t do the sensible thing and reinstate mandatory mask usage and contact tracing sign in.
Quite simply, he and his govt just don’t give a shit about people.
Irony, thy colour is Green.
Fireffox
That’s an increase of 1,241 for Labor vs an increase of 1,286,221 for the Greens over the span of 26 years. Speaks for itself.?.
Keep that up, and you should be in government by 2221. !.
“For those Greens supporters who can access the comments on this. Very illuminating.”
Yah..seems fairly simple to me that Mr Woods has switched his backing to a not-major party group that may be in a position to support and drive ACTUAL change in Govt Climate policy. ALP are in a good position here since the Teals should, generally, take votes off the Libs and Greens in seats the ALP has no chance in anyway.
Greens probably need to consider the whys of this development. Tells them something about themselves.
imacca @ #283 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 10:44 am
But that would require self-reflection.
Firefox says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:38 pm
“The Grouper rejoices in the demolition of the reformist plurality. The Groupers – imposters all – are implicitly pro-Reactionary.”
***
That’s not exactly how I would describe Labor but at least The Artist is honest about the establishment being demolished.
Like every Reactionary I’ve ever come across, FF is consistent in at least one respect: they know how to dissemble. They are nothing if not disingenuous.
yabba says:
Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 1:04 pm
Nath and L’arse right into the circular arse sniffing and licking, on cue, again.
_______________
Yabba has a real predilection for writing bestiality infused pornography.
The Labor vote over the last 30 years ( in real terms as a percent ) has gone down. That’s a fact. I’m not denying it.
The green vote ( in real terms as a percent ) Federally over the last 10 years has gone down. The green vote ( in real terms as a percent ) at the recent Queensland election went down ( a tiny amount, happy to call it stagnant ).
Bizarrely, you try to deny reality by claiming the green vote has surged in the last 10 years.
Who’s floundering ?
Who would the new leader of the Greens be? They can’t persist with Bandt who has all but disappeared himself and the party from any debate. The Greens haven’t really been interested in AGW for years now, preferring to animate on issues like same sex marriage and asylum seekers.
The Greens should’ve been trying to win disgruntled Lib voters in the seats now targetted by Teals indies. Instead they’ve disappeared themselves on the issue of AGW with a dunce of a federal leader and a preference for fighting against the opposition rather than the govt.
Confessions @ #288 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 10:54 am
Their positioning on other issues has meant they have been unable to challenge to any real extent in conservative seats. This is the vacuum that the these new independents are targeting.
“Who’s floundering ?”
***
1,241 over 26 years!!
Such a telling statistic.
“Who would the new leader of the Greens be? They can’t persist with Bandt”
***
More desperately wishful thinking.
Briefly
I appreciate you injecting a dose of reality into the trauma caused by the media attention on tragic accidents. I’m sorry your family is still suffering from the results of the disaster. For the media it’s just a 24 hour show.
I’m somewhat perplexed by how many posters here misunderstand the group of independent candidates collectively called the Teals. Even more perplexed because they take the same line as much of the despised media by comparing them to disruptor parties like One Nation, The Australian Democrats or the Greens.
As far as I can see, they are a phenomenon quite different from any other political movement I’ve seen before.
First, I’m not aware of any of the announced candidates so far who have serious political experience. They are people from outside the political spectrum who have not done their time in electoral offices, Minister’s offices or party structures. Instead they have experience in the wider world and, I think, could well return there once their job is done. I expect that those who get elected will, for the most part, not be worried about losing their seats and therefore will not make political compromises (even to the point of supporting a minority Labor government) for fear of electoral rejection at the next poll. Subject, of course, to any clear undertakings they make to their electorates.
Secondly, they do not have a party structure and I expect that, while they may caucus, they will never form a political party, because that would undermine what they are trying to achieve.
They are individuals who have a common view about what is wrong with with the political system and the need to take action to repair it. They are concerned about the lack of integrity in the system and, particularly, in the Coalition government. They are concerned that patently good policy on dealing with climate change is being stymied for pure short term political advantage. And they are concerned about the aggressive political culture that manifests itself most terribly in the treatment of women in politics.
Despite certain people here thinking both major parties are the same, they recognise that the major problems are with what the Liberal Party (a party they would, for the most part, typically gravitate towards philosophically) has become. It has stopped becoming a party with a particular set of values and principles and become one packed with ideologues, self-servers and people driven by a ‘winning is everything’ outlook. Which is why the concentration of their candidacies is in currently Liberal held electorates.
One can sneeringly call them Lib-lite, but the fact is that they are the real Liberals, who feel their party has stopped being concerned with good government but only interested holding power at any cost.
So, they are not splitters like the DLP or the Australian Democrats or the Greens; and they are not a corruption project like PHON or UAP appealing to the base instincts of stupid people who wouldn’t understand policy making if it set them on fire. Indeed, they are not even a party.
One of the things I have despaired about in recent years – at least since the advent of Tony Abbott – is the jettisoning of democratic values in this country by the forces of the right. One only has to watch the farce of Question Time to see how ‘accountability’ has become an utter joke. But accountability lies at the heart of the western democratic system – the idea of scheduled regular elections with a secret ballot and free vote is the essence of democratic accountability. But that free vote is meaningless if the party in power can escape even the most superficial scrutiny for it conduct.
These people want that accountability back in our discourse. I may not agree with the values and principles they support, but at least they have them and they are in the national interest. I wish them the greatest of good fortune – not because they are most likely to screw the Liberal Party to Labor’s advantage, but because they actually stand for things that should and would be bipartisan in essence if it were not for one side of politics eschewing them for personal and political advantage.
And on a darker note:
S#$thead and S#$thead lite have a real predilection for acting out bestiality infused pornography on this site.
Confessions
“Instead they’ve disappeared themselves on the issue of AGW with a dunce of a federal leader and a preference for fighting against the opposition rather than the govt.”
Right on. The Greens are still a far-left party – especially under Bandt. Thus, their strategy is to gnaw away at Labor from the left, rather than attack the Coalition head-on from the middle.
Is Bullshitman on his way to Redcliffe with Jen?
They had a genuine opportunity to have a red hot go at the Higgins by-election when Costello retired, yet squibbed it with poor candidate choice.
nath @ #287 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 1:50 pm
Says the thing that said I was ‘foaming at the mouth’.
Hence my comment. Get it, l’arse licker? Classic trumpy projection by our very own l’arse licking rabid dog.
Nath and L’arse continue with the circular l’arse sniffing and licking, on cue, repeatedly. Sad and sick.
Kakuru:
I thought Bandt would restore the party to its green roots after RDN tried and failed to cut through as a moderate. But instead Bandt is invisible and the Greens are irrelevant on the issue of AGW.
Nath sees a lot of sock time when Lars is commenting, and vice versa.
Both are best ignored and left to their own dual festivities.