The Australian had follow-up results from the weekend Newspoll on Tuesday showing how the two leaders compared on nine attributes, with accompanying tables neatly comparing the results to 14 earlier following the same template going back go 2008. It is characteristic of such results to move in lock step with a leader’s overall approval rating, and these are no exception, with Scott Morrison’s position deteriorating by between eight (arrogant up from 52% to 60%) and sixteen (likeable down from 63% to 47%) points since April, while Anthony Albanese’s movements ranged from positive two (arrogant from 40% to 38%) to negative four (trustworthy from 48% to 44% and experienced from 64% to 60%).
The result is that both leaders are at or near the weakest results yet recorded on a range of measures. Scott Morrison had the worst results yet recorded for either a Prime Minister or Opposition Leader on “understands the major issues” (52%) and “cares for people” (50%) and the worst for a Prime Minister on trustworthy (42%). However, he has the consolation that Anthony Albanese’s results were hardly better at 54%, 56% and 44% respectively. Both also scored poorly on being in touch with voters, at 41% for Morrison and 46% for Albanese, while landing well clear of the 33% Tony Abbott recorded a few weeks after the Prince Phillip knighthood. Conversely, Albanese’s arrogant rating of 38% is the lowest yet recorded, comparing with a middling 60% for Morrison.
Other news:
• A Liberal preselection vote on the weekend for the eastern Melbourne fringe seat of Casey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Tony Smith, was won by Aaron Violi, executive with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants and a former staffer to Senator James Patterson. The Age reports Violi won the last round of the ballot by 152 votes to 101 ahead of Andrew Asten, principal of Boston Consulting Group and former ministerial chief-of-staff to Alan Tudge, with the last candidate excluded being Melbourne City councillor Roshena Campbell. Earlier reports suggested Campbell and Violi to be aligned with state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien and party president Robert Clark, while Asten is in the rival Josh Frydenberg/Michael Sukkar camp.
• A Roy Morgan poll, using its somewhat dubious SMS survey method, produced very strong results for the Labor government in Victoria, which was credited with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election. The primary votes were Labor 43%, Coalition 31% and Greens 11%. A forced response question on Daniel Andrews found 60.5% approving and 39.5% disapproving. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1357.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #48 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:14 am
I’ll re-post this for you on Election night, AE.
Simon Katich says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 8:54 am
You must be smoking crack.
Their is around 800 billionaires who helped made themselves richer during the pandemic
The charity ? Laughable, that’s probably tax free and chump change
Did you know homeless has increased in America?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/25/pandemic-fuels-rise-in-us-homelessness
Simon Katich @ #31 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:18 am
Are the ALP states letting him, or are they chucking it back in Scotty’s face?
Morrison is again showing his incompetence by undermining the vaccine rollout, why would the prime minister of Australia encourage unvaccinated people to go out in the public.
This from Barrie Cassidy
These are the dangerous individuals I’m talking about. Encouraged and legitimised by an obsessive and partisan media that wildly exaggerates every move in Victoria and gives a loud voice to a small minority.
” Yep. And no doubt the fiberals are praising Adem Somyurek. How low can they possibly go.”
For an alliance of convenience, as low as necessary as far as the “Liberals” are concerned. As far as Mr Somyurek goes, I haven’t been following the matter closely. From this distance it appears to be the sort of thing that regularly besmirches both sides of politics but tends to get more media attention on one than the other. For the “Liberals” and Mr Someyurek, it would appear to be simply a matter of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” (for now).
Victoria says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 9:26 am
This from Barrie Cassidy
These are the dangerous individuals I’m talking about. Encouraged and legitimised by an obsessive and partisan media that wildly exaggerates every move in Victoria and gives a loud voice to a small minority.
Barrie almost got it right. The dangerous party is the obsessive and partisan media.
MFW
Andrews threatened in the streets with calls to hang him.
McGowan’s office closed after serious threats of violence.
Yet Marshall & Gutwein receive no such threats despite enacting similar policy.
What could possibly be the reason for this weird difference, hmmm?
#NewsCorpse https://t.co/HF6wP2DGxE
Sudmalis received her reward in 2018.
Scott says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 9:21 am
With the help of his new nsw premier buddy
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/premier-defends-decision-to-shelve-plan-to-extend-police-powers-20211117-p599nq.html
The West Australian reports today on a catholic school principal in Perth’s south who has threatened to close his school rather than get vaccinated.
He will no doubt be thrilled to see Morrison supporting anti vaxers today.,
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 6:49 am
former Labor leader Bill Shorten give a witty speech to launch the book. He spoke self-deprecatingly, “you may know me as Shifty Shorten, Unbelieva-Bill, a faceless man or a man with too much forehead, the grim reaper, a member of the Illuminati, one of the lizard people, the killer of weekends or worse”.
_________________________
Pretty shifty of Littlefinger to list obvious truths with some ludicrousness in an attempt to muddy the waters.
The media and the fiberals have been whipping up this from the get go of the pandemic here in Victoria. It has now come to this.
—-
It comes as terror police begin making arrests of far right protesters over plots to shoot and kill elected MPs, after the groups published addresses of MPs and detailed plans to execute them. The groups brought working gallows to the protests and staged a hanging of Dan Andrews.
To bother replying to you? I must be.
I didnt say the US was a bunch of fluffy ducks. Far from it. You have misconstrued my post – probably deliberately so you can post some angry shit. My post, clearly, was about how the United states is a complicated place. It does have a lot of nutters, greedy b@stards and people who dont care about others. But it isnt all like that. There is a counter force there deserves mention.
It’s sad to see SK become an apologist for U.S billionaires and extreme poverty.
😆 Just what ‘old’ research has been telling everyone since 4eva.
Mundo
“Labor possibly………..”
“Labor will have to cop it sweet then rebuild under new energetic and enthusiastic leadership hit the ground campaigning from ’22 with a view to winning in ’25.”
Stop being stupid!
Simon Katich says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 9:38 am
Lol another excuse.
America is complex? Sure smoking crack again.
It’s like a Republican saying it’s too hard.
NSW daily new Covid cases seem to have levelled off in the low 200’s, or they might be slowly creeping back up. Or maybe they are showing the usual early week dip / late week peak. Billington’s estimate middle estimate of R(eff) is now back below 1, just (0.98 +/- .09): https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html
Victorian daily Covid numbers are still declining, heading for on track to halve to about 400-500 a day in four weeks’ time: https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021.html
Their R(eff) is more comfortably below 1 (0.87 +/- .05)
Nath
“Pretty shifty of Littlefinger to list obvious truths with some ludicrousness in an attempt to muddy the waters.”
You’re still deeply wounded and profoundly hurt!
[‘The far right groups, which include neo-nazis, have praised Adem Somyurek as a hero after he pledged to vote down the laws.’]
Victoria’s equivalent of Labor rat Latham.
Zerlo @ #69 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:13 am
Everyone is smoking crack Zerlo – you are the only one not addicted to it.
Rossmg
“The West Australian reports today on a catholic school principal in Perth’s south who has threatened to close his school rather than get vaccinated.”
The fact that this principal would rather inflict disruption and risk of harm on his school community than put aside his personal preferences says it all about whether or not he is fit to be a principal. One of the reasons I quite the catholic church was that it was obvious back in the 90 Pell era that the leadership positions of the catholic education system were being stacked with religious fundamentalists.
William Bowe,
In your introductory paragraph beneath the title you have an ‘n’ missing from ‘even’
Simon Katich says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 9:53 am
No Simon, I drink coffee.
Also I back up my stuff with facts.
Something that you refused to do.
Why do you think America is any more complex than say Australia or UK?
In SA news this is pretty significant. SA Liberal Attorney General Vicky Chapman faces a no-confidence motion today over a QC report finding she acted with an actual conflict of interest in a development approval matter. There is a good chance it will pass. Yet premier Steve Marshall says she will not be shifted.
Under the Westminster system it is clear a Minister who loses the confidence of the House must resign, so there is really no excuse for this. It is not a constitutional crisis – the rules are clear. It is a governance crisis, because the government is refusing to follow the rules.
Whitlam was sacked by Kerr for less than this.
https://indaily.com.au/news/2021/11/18/what-we-know-today-thursday-november-18/?scrollTo=chapman&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=InDaily%20Express%20%2018%20November%202021&utm_content=InDaily%20Express%20%2018%20November%202021+CID_bfb7d133e0da4fee91264f1dd403685d&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=Chapman%20set%20to%20face%20no%20confidence%20motion#chapman
So nath continues with his very personal crusade against Shorten. “Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that.”
Andrew_Earlwood @ #48 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:14 am
Labor won’t be campaigning on climate change. How can they when their policy (ok, it’s more correct to say “platform” since they have no actual “policy”) is indistinguishable from the government? Labor could even use the same three word slogan if they wanted to “Technology not Taxes”.
Or perhaps “Fossil Fuels Rule!”
Vote for policies, not parties. Vote Independent.
Re Andrew Earlwood @9:14:
“ Personally, I’d like to see Labor delay its climate change policy until the election campaign proper: too many potential traps and pitfalls given that it will be fighting not one enemy, but two: both eager to wedge Labor. Best to take a last minute appraisal of the political zeitgeist before launching the horsies at the breach.”
You make a good point about two enemies. In fact there are three – you can throw in a large chunk of Corporate Australia as well.
The Coalition has lots of enemies outside Parliament too, including the Union Movement (largely neutered), the environment movement (fairly powerless) and a motley collection of interests subject to attack in the Culture Wars, who the Right lump together as the (intellectual and cultural) “Elites”.
However, Labor’s enemies are far better funded and hold all the big megaphones.
Not sure whether Gary Jubelin is seeking redemption, selling tickets for his show or just enjoys a chat.
Looks counter-productive.
“Former detective says nothing indicated foster-mother’s involvement in William’s disappearance
Former homicide detective Gary Jubelin says whether William Tyrrell fatally fell from a balcony was just one theory police investigated when the three-year-old first went missing in 2014.
“We investigated every theory, [did he die] of an accident: whether William was run over on the driveway, or fell over and hit his head on the rock, or fell off the balcony. That’s the most obvious place when you look at the house that a child could injure themselves,” he told radio station 2GB.
“What you’ve got to do when you’re investigating homicide is you have theories, but you’ve got to overlay them with facts.”
Mr Jubelin oversaw the investigation for several years before he was stood down for illegally recording a conversation with a person of interest.
Last week, police seized a Mazda 3 from a home in Gymea, in southern Sydney, that William’s foster-grandmother drove at the time of his disappearance. She has since died, and the car was sold or given to someone else. The car will undergo forensic testing.
Mr Jubelin said he could not recall examining the car during his time on the case.
Over the past few days, police have revealed William’s foster-mother is the only person of interest. But this morning, Mr Jubelin said in the time he worked on the case, there was nothing that indicated her involvement in the three-year-old’s disappearance.
“At the time I left the investigation, there was no evidence that concerned me that the foster-mother or foster-father were involved in William’s disappearance – if that’s changed, I’m not aware of it,” he said.”
The reff for NSW, ACT and VIC seems to fluctuate a between .8 and 1 through the week such that its predictive power is diminished compared just to raw case numbers, deaths .
The ref in NZ has been 1.0+ for weeks but the situation is stable there as it is in ACT and NSW.
Re Nath “It’s sad to see SK become an apologist for U.S billionaires and extreme poverty.”
You seem to have confused SK with the US Republicans.
===
Anyway, off to do some shopping.
So going to War with China will stop going to War with China
What a conflicted nonsense the Liberal Party is
And the way a government and its Public Service respond in the face of a health event is to let everyone do what they want to do
This is the same mob who oppose legislation outlawing discrimination on the grounds of religion, culture and race
But they want “free speech”
As they attack the ABC as “left wing”
The convicted person in NZ was an Australian and Right Wing
As have been other perpetrators of violence around the World
And the Liberal Party stands with them
All this before “freedom of choice” is reflected on in regards Conscription and the deaths of Conscripts in Vietnam
What “freedom of choice” did they have?
Given they were dead at 20 years of age
Today in Victoria, 1000 people have been placed in isolation (at best) along with their close contacts (so 7 days from contact with a further test after 6 days)
The virus is still among us
And the Liberal Party subscribe to their being no spread mitigation protocols (but they are to go to War with China!!! )
Imagine the impact across society?
And the “media” support them
‘Labor has an impressive team of shadow ministers, any one of whom could take the helm and present the alternative governing party as principled and dynamic. I would place former New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally at the top of that list. Bill Hayden resigned as Labor leader in 1983 on the eve of an election when it was put him that the Party needed a more certain winner. Bob Hawke was installed and won a resounding victory. Even though Hayden might have been right in saying that a drover’s dog would have won the 1983 Election, Labor was right to improve its chances with the more recognised and energetic figure of Hawke.
Neither the shifting opinion polls nor competing election axioms point to a Labor win as things stand. Like Bill Hayden, Albanese is a decent man but there is a strong argument for him to willingly stand aside for a safer option.’
Paul Begley over at the Independent is too far gone.
Yeah I needed a good laugh. If Begley inferring Kristina Keneally is the woman version of Bob Hawke for the Labor party as a sure bet for electoral success then he’s kidding himself. If Anthony Albanese lost the election I wouldn’t even want Keneally to be the next leader of the Labor party. I would choose either Tanya Plibersek or Jim Chalmers before her.
I’m kind over the gushing of Keneally. Look, some of the criticism is valid in her being parachuted in Fowler. The only thing is the Greens on this forum are happy to look the other way when Tu Le was virtually a blow in as well. And the current member for Fowler disregarded other branch members and thinks he is entitled to hand pick his replacement. But Keneally does seem to have a hint of opportunism about her career. I’ve always felt things have been given to her on a silver platter with the NSW Labor state premiership, a senate seat, and now a safe seat in the House of Representatives.
Bill Shorten did a lot for getting her into the senate. And it says in the book Party Animals after the 2019 federal election loss. Keneally quickly took her photos of Shorten on her social media account down and replaced them with Albanese after the election. It’s why despite her being the media darling I have never completely warmed to her.
What’s flawed about Begley suggestion is he seems to think Keneally is the ‘safer’ option. Keneally doesn’t have a proven record to be a electoral vote winner. Also unlike Kevin Rudd where there was polling to suggest he was the more popular option among voters then Kim Beazley. There is no public polling to back Begley’s assertion that Keneally is the safer option polling wise.
Zerlo @ #75 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:27 am
What facts do you want Zerlo? The US has both nutters, arseholes, compromised politicians and good people prepared to vote and fight in the streets against racism, fascism, and inequality. Are you not aware of the BLM and Antifa protests last year that were generally supported by the MSM and the public? Are you unaware of the OWS protests that also were given generally favourable coverage? Did you not know that a socialist was a serious contender for the Democrat Primary, twice?
So yes, the US is complicated. It has extremes that dont exist (yet) in the UK and Australia. It has had McCarthyism, Jim Crowe and Trump but also the Civil Rights Act, a black president and Trump was defeated after 4 years by 4.5pts (popular vote). I worry about the place. I have long been heavily critical of its past foreign policies. And I fear what is happening there now. But it isnt, homogenously, a bad place.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/09/27/support-for-black-lives-matter-declined-after-george-floyd-protests-but-has-remained-unchanged-since/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-time-person-idUSTRE7BD0ZB20111214
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries#Schedule_and_results
Observer says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 10:11 am
It’s an excuse to spend money on weapons of war because profit for weapons manufacturers
And because ACPI says so
Shellbell says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 10:08 am
The reff for NSW, ACT and VIC seems to fluctuate a between .8 and 1 through the week such that its predictive power is diminished compared just to raw case numbers, deaths .
The ref in NZ has been 1.0+ for weeks but the situation is stable there as it is in ACT and NSW.
—————
Average daily cases in NZ have roughly doubled over the last few weeks as reflected in the Reff but still at about NSW levels in absolute terms (ie the 100-200 range) in a smaller population. The stabilisation in NSW numbers is about what you’d expect from a Reff ranging a bit below to a bit above 1. The recent decline in Vic cases, after a bit of a plateau, is reflected in the Reff in the 0.8-0.95 range.
In SA, the Liberal Party is of inbreds of whom Chapman is one
They are the Party of the “Establishment”
Were the Chapman family previously embroiled in controversy at Port Elliot with a bridge?
I believe it’s a very useful site which provides easy access from Hansard records. Very childish of Bragg and Sharma to believe their votes should be kept secret or hidden.
Observer
Yes I believe that was the same clan. The term “born to rule” comes to mind.
”
WB:
A Roy Morgan poll, using its somewhat dubious SMS survey method, produced very strong results for the Labor government in Victoria, which was credited with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election. The primary votes were Labor 43%, Coalition 31% and Greens 11%. A forced response question on Daniel Andrews found 60.5% approving and 39.5% disapproving. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1357.
”
For me, I usually do not give much credence to Morgan polls because of their poor record in compared to election result. So I do think this pill is ‘dubious’.
Fantastic word.
All Victorian gathering caps to be lifted from midnight tonight
Victoria premier Daniel Andrews is speaking now and has confirmed that the state will imminently pass through the 90% double vaccination mark, so new, relaxed restrictions will come into effect from tonight:
What do these rule changes from 11.59pm tonight mean? Well, first and foremost, there are no more caps, there are no more closures.
There are no more rules in terms of how many people can be in different spaces.
As it is to your home, back to normal. The number of people in a pub or cafe or restaurant, back to normal.
There will not be Covid rules that determine how many people are at the pub, it will be the liquor licence, back to normal.
You can stand up to have a drink, dancefloors, all of those things that we have missed, and that are absolutely about getting to as normal a situation as possible.
That normality that we have all craved, we are able to deliver that as a result of the amazing work that Victorians have done in getting vaccinated in record time. And in record numbers.
”
Shellbellsays:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 10:08 am
The reff for NSW, ACT and VIC seems to fluctuate a between .8 and 1 through the week such that its predictive power is diminished compared just to raw case numbers, deaths .
The ref in NZ has been 1.0+ for weeks but the situation is stable there as it is in ACT and NSW.
”
Agreed. The ref lost its potence after high vaccination rates in ACT & NSW.
I know someone especially people like Cud may what about Singapore and Europe whose vaccination rates are high where case numbers seem to go up?
Well they heading into winter and sometimes’sh*t happens’ even after your best efforts.
Without meaning to cast a wide net and adding that most of them do a good job, given the history of some foster and/or step-parents, perhaps Jubelin should’ve delved deeper, now in the knowledge that the step-mother is the only person of interest. It’s not difficult to envisage what happened to the toddler.
Mavis @ #72 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:47 am
Don’t forget my favourite….. the Quizzling Quasimodo from Queensland.
UK Cartoons:
“Unlike 1983, there is no messiah in the wings. I can’t see that a late switch of leadership doing Labor any good.”
***
I can’t see any benefit to either Labor or the Libs changing their leader before the election. It would be asking to lose.
Labor needs to stick with Albo, especially if he wins. Whatever you do guys, don’t knife him if he becomes PM like you did to Rudd. He must remain PM until he resigns or is voted out.
If Albo loses I’d guess he will probably call it quits. Whatever happens in that case, whatever you do, do NOT make toxic Bill the leader again. Move on to someone new. I’d say Penny Wong but she’s a Senator so would need to borrow KK’s parachute and land somewhere in the House for that to happen. Tanya P? Chalmers?
Andrew_Earlwood @ – 9:14 am
Which would mean the inevitable “scare campaign” about any Labor policy is in the middle of an election campaign,making Labor ‘the issue”. Labor betting on countering the scare and arguing the case in the middle of an election campaign , as Sir Humphrey would say ‘A very courageous decision.”