The Australian had follow-up results from the weekend Newspoll on Tuesday showing how the two leaders compared on nine attributes, with accompanying tables neatly comparing the results to 14 earlier following the same template going back go 2008. It is characteristic of such results to move in lock step with a leader’s overall approval rating, and these are no exception, with Scott Morrison’s position deteriorating by between eight (arrogant up from 52% to 60%) and sixteen (likeable down from 63% to 47%) points since April, while Anthony Albanese’s movements ranged from positive two (arrogant from 40% to 38%) to negative four (trustworthy from 48% to 44% and experienced from 64% to 60%).
The result is that both leaders are at or near the weakest results yet recorded on a range of measures. Scott Morrison had the worst results yet recorded for either a Prime Minister or Opposition Leader on “understands the major issues” (52%) and “cares for people” (50%) and the worst for a Prime Minister on trustworthy (42%). However, he has the consolation that Anthony Albanese’s results were hardly better at 54%, 56% and 44% respectively. Both also scored poorly on being in touch with voters, at 41% for Morrison and 46% for Albanese, while landing well clear of the 33% Tony Abbott recorded a few weeks after the Prince Phillip knighthood. Conversely, Albanese’s arrogant rating of 38% is the lowest yet recorded, comparing with a middling 60% for Morrison.
Other news:
• A Liberal preselection vote on the weekend for the eastern Melbourne fringe seat of Casey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Tony Smith, was won by Aaron Violi, executive with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants and a former staffer to Senator James Patterson. The Age reports Violi won the last round of the ballot by 152 votes to 101 ahead of Andrew Asten, principal of Boston Consulting Group and former ministerial chief-of-staff to Alan Tudge, with the last candidate excluded being Melbourne City councillor Roshena Campbell. Earlier reports suggested Campbell and Violi to be aligned with state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien and party president Robert Clark, while Asten is in the rival Josh Frydenberg/Michael Sukkar camp.
• A Roy Morgan poll, using its somewhat dubious SMS survey method, produced very strong results for the Labor government in Victoria, which was credited with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election. The primary votes were Labor 43%, Coalition 31% and Greens 11%. A forced response question on Daniel Andrews found 60.5% approving and 39.5% disapproving. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1357.
I’m very uncomfortable with the SMH and other media outlets (including the ABC) publishing off-the-record details and unauthorised leaks of the police investigations into William Tyrell’s foster mother.
We saw it with Lindy Chamberlain, and more recently George Pell, Christian Porter and Andrew Laming, as well as several persons of interest in the Tyrell case itself who were vilified and hounded from pillar to post before beingvreluctantly released from scrutiny. These things tend to turn into witch hunts, with tribal loyalties, prejudices and irrational beliefs taking over from cold hard facts. If Gary Jubelin’s matter confirms anything, it is this.
Without a doubt, even if police find no evidence against anyone in the present investigation, a lynch mob mentality will take over, and battle lines will be drawn. There will be those who are convinced, without the slightest shred of evidence other than speculative stories in the tabloid print and electronic media, that William Tyrell’s foster mum killed him by fair means or foul, then covered it up.
The personal involvement of the Premier and Police Commissioner is also galling to me. The Premier, accused of facilitating a dodgy financial sleight of hand with NSW Rail assets to the tune of billions of dollars, faced with a potential explosion in Covid numbers and no doubt wishing to emulate the WA Premier’s “success” with the Carnarvon kidnapping wants to be in on the kill to deflect away from real problems besetting him so early in his tenure.
The boofheaded Police Commissioner, ScoMo’s friendly garbo, caught by a Parliamentary committee supporting the use of terrorist police against citizen journalists, supporting strip searches of adolescent girls, and wishing to exit the job on his recently inflated salary more with a bang than a whimper, has given at least the televisual impression that he has taken personal control of the matter, appointing task forces here and doing stand-up pressers there, while all the while being just another tame, politicised hack, looking for well-remunerated consultancy work post-retirement. What a plodding hero!
The whole thing has turned into yet another circus, cheap fodder for a viewing and reading public too used to the protocols and practices of Reality TV to appreciate that Reality TV is all the “news” is nowadays.
Labor doesn’t need a messianic figure to win the next election. Morrison knows this, which is why he is currently a slogan looking for a narrative to attach himself to
As for Van Badham, god I could think of few things worse than spending time in her company or at her book launch. Up there with Jordan Shanks and the Rollisons as some of the more odious people who align with the ALP.
Also, credit to Ben Fordham for landing an interview with former Tyrell investigating detective, convicted criminal and Fordham Management Company client Gary Jubelin on Ben Fordham’s radio show in Sydney this morning.
“Yeah I needed a good laugh. If Begley inferring Kristina Keneally is the woman version of Bob Hawke for the Labor party as a sure bet for electoral success then he’s kidding himself. If Anthony Albanese lost the election I wouldn’t even want Keneally to be the next leader of the Labor party. I would choose either Tanya Plibersek or Jim Chalmers before her.”
***
I’ve said it before, KK is a good parliamentary asset but carries too much baggage from NSW Labor. You are right to be wary of making her leader. She should be Leader of Government/Opposition Business or something like that, that’s a role that would suit her perfectly I reckon.
deleted
Firefox @ #33 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 10:58 am
I’d go with the Queenslander.
nath @ #62 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 6:35 am
I thought it just highlighted how comfortable you’d be with the current Melbourne protesters.
No wonder you’re defending their actions.
BB
“The personal involvement of the Premier and Police Commissioner is also galling to me. ”
———
Yes! I noticed it to.
The investigation is now obviously a Liberal Party matter.
If someone is eventually charged, I wonder if the blatant political interference will prevent a trial.
So how goes Mordor Media’s gnus outlets ? Rat shit in the dead wood world . Online ?
@ mundo 918am re AE
Historically, I’d agree with AE. A general doesn’t commit all his forces to what is basically a skirmish. Skirmishes are usually probing attacks to determine the opponents strengths and weaknesses, and draw a response which may reveal a plan or tactics.
In this case, Dear Leader and Generalissimo Morrison is skirmishing with Labor, hoping to draw out a response.
Military strategists would probably be on Albanese’s side at this stage before the actual battle begins. Why expose your tactics when you know that you need to be flexible according to what the enemy presents when the real battle begins?
As for those who constantly demand Albanese show his hand, in this case a response to Morrison’s smoke and mirrors CC feint, one gets the feeling they have made their choice as to who they’re backing, while desperately claiming their neutrality, or at least, indulging in plain mischief-making.
To continue the military analogy, it would appear that Labor lean towards the idea that those who refuse to learn from the mistakes of history are condemned to repeat them. The lessons of 2019 are still fresh in their minds. Whether or not the correct consideration of those lessons has taken place will be evident from the eventual outcome.
It can also be deduced that Generalissimo Morrison is no strategic genius like those we’ve read about in military history. He is utterly predictable in his political strategies. They come straight out of the conservative textbook. Albanese may be the same in his tactical responses.
All will be revealed.
In the meantime, keep your dispositions secret and your powder dry.
“I’d go with the Queenslander.”
***
Yeah, taking my Greens hat off for a second and trying to look at it from a Labor perspective, I probably would too.
Tanya is closer to me ideologically but I think Chalmers is the better media performer and salesperson. And yeah, being from QLD would probably help Labor’s vote there. Tanya on the other hand isn’t likely to gain much benefit from being from NSW, we aren’t really like that here. No other state other than QLD is really.
“So how goes Mordor Media’s gnus outlets ?”
***
Apart from News.com.au, pretty poorly compared to the rest it would seem.
I can’t see any benefit to either Labor or the Libs changing their leader before the election. It would be asking to lose.
Labor needs to stick with Albo, especially if he wins. Whatever you do guys, don’t knife him if he becomes PM like you did to Rudd. He must remain PM until he resigns or is voted out.
If Albo loses I’d guess he will probably call it quits. Whatever happens in that case, whatever you do, do NOT make toxic Bill the leader again. Move on to someone new. I’d say Penny Wong but she’s a Senator so would need to borrow KK’s parachute and land somewhere in the House for that to happen. Tanya P? Chalmers?
I agree with your point that Labor must stick with Anthony Albanese. It’s actually not just some people on this blog who are trigger happy in terms of changing the leadership. But it’s also people who are completely clueless in the media.
Penny Wong has stated she is happy in the senate. Its also been reported privately she doesn’t believe the Australian public is ready for an Asian gay Prime Minster. She also said she wouldn’t want scrutiny on her personal life to ever consider putting her hand up for the leadership. I hope Labor wins the next election. By reports Wong was quite despondent by the last federal election loss it was reported she considered bowing out of politics. It was Anthony Albanese who convinced her to stay on.
From what I understand there is nothing in the constitution that stops the Prime Minster being based in the senate. Its more through codes and conventions that the Prime Minster has always been based in the House of Representatives.
news.com.au rarely has political news and when it does it’s surprisingly rational. More reporting less analysis.
poroti @ #108 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 8:24 am
Not really comparing apples with apples.
They should really highlight which publications have a paywall.
Thank you, BK and AZ
It is remarkable how the UK cartoons have a visual style which is so very different from the visual style of Australian cartoonists.
BB
Good post, IMO.
You know what shits me about the NSW state gov.
They can spend $750m on a fish market (AKA a private commercial venture), which will probably blow out to over a billion, whilst the students at Black Wattle Bay high (right next door) have to put up with demountable classrooms.
Inner west who vote Labor/Greens so don’t count. They’re even hammering in the pylons whilst the kids do the HSC. Wouldn’t have that out the back of St Joseph’s.
“From what I understand there is nothing in the constitution that stops the Prime Minster being based in the senate. Its more through codes and conventions that the Prime Minster has always been based in the House of Representatives.”
***
It has actually happened before, although in very exceptional circumstances.
John Gorton served as PM while also being a Senator in the aftermath of Harold Holt’s disappearance. McEwen served as caretaker and then Gorton was elected the new leader, even though he was in the Senate. He is the only person to have ever done so.
Firefox
A message there.The only outlet that featured being their most ‘fair and balanced’ outlet. Somewhere that frequently posts news and views that would ‘trigger’ denizens of the likes of the Hun and Telecrap.
Political Nightwatchman @ #112 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 8:31 am
It’s more through reality and practicality. The Government by definition has the support of the majority of the House of Reps, this is rarely the case in the Senate.
For the PM to reside in the Senate it would expose them to censure and confidence motions that they would find difficult to defend against.
In regards paywalls, the ABC has no paywalls and the Guardian only seeks contributions, so both readily accessed.
The paywalls would appear to me to create echo chambers, trapped by a wall around them and keeping others out.
So back in medieval times, with motes and walls (and located on hill tops)
And the numbers would indicate that they are losing relevance accordingly, only being consumed by their own.
So revenue over influence.
Capitalism, anyone?
Mind you, you can create a paying audience – such as the winding back of free to air coverage of sporting events, thanks to the LNP government and their media.
But if you restrict your viewing to sport (eg Kayo), you are not consuming their political ideology thru their current affairs presentations.
So what they are presenting comes to a wider audience courtesy of other media and the likes of MediaWatch on the ABC.
“The Australia Capital Territory has recorded 25 new Covid-19 cases in the latest reporting period. ”
So yesterday’s six new cases was an anomaly. The five-day average seems to be stubbornly stuck on 10-11 new cases.
It has actually happened before, although in very exceptional circumstances.
John Gorton served as PM while also being a Senator in the aftermath of Harold Holt’s disappearance. McEwen served as caretaker and then Gorton was elected the new leader, even though he was in the Senate. He is the only person to have ever done so.
Interesting, you are right. I never knew John Gorton was Prime Minster while he was in the senate. Of course the Liberals would never have done it if they didn’t have a plan to parachute Gorton into Harold Holt’s seat of Higgins.
“A message there.The only outlet that featured being their most ‘fair and balanced’ outlet. Somewhere that frequently posts news and views that would ‘trigger’ denizens of the likes of the Hun and Telecrap.”
***
Yeah for sure, it’s far less conservative than the likes of the DT etc…
It’s valuable domain “News.com.au” would have a lot to do with it’s high reach too. It’s obviously a great address for a news site. Short, memorable, and on totally on topic.
Personally, I’m quite comfortable with the current pandemic laws in Victoria. Not fussed either way.
Awesome to see most of the restrictions gone from midnight tonight. Happy days. 🙂
Also good to see some of the nutters that the Vic Libs are mates with getting pinged by the police.
Gorton was Prime Minister while a Senator … for a couple of weeks until he resigned to contest Holt’s seat.
But the Senate was not sitting as it was January.
Received a flyer in the mailbox yesterday from Andrew Hastie, the federal member for Canning.
It informs me that AUKUS is the biggest development in national security since the ANZUS treaty seventy years ago. The agreement to build nuclear submarines was an initiative of the Prime minister himself, and was a sensitive high stakes deal worked out at the highest levels of government.
It is game hanging for WA, and Garden Island will be the home of our future fleet. This will require a significant spend at HMAS Sterling and the Morrison government will spend $1 billion on rebuilding and providing improved support and training.
The implications for education, investment and employment in WA are significant and exciting.
AUKUS is a vote of confidence in WA ship building and a vital role in local industry.
Ultimately AUKUS is not just about our present circumstances, it will protect the next generation of Australians.
How do we know they will be built here when they don’t yet have a contract or even know which part of AUKUS will be doing the build.
Do I want to live next door to a port that will host more international warships and build nuclear subs.
Nothing in this flyer would encourage me to vote for Hastie but if his rhetoric is taken as read then a lot of people will view this as good news.
So Morrison “understands the frustrations” of the nutters.
How warped are his principles trying to woo these nutjobs ..??
Just on paywalls, it strikes me as strange indeed that, on your iphone, going to Apple News, you get access to all these headlines including particularly from the Murdoch media then to find access to the article is behind a paywall (so useless)
What you can then do is access an icon which says that the “news” coming to your iphone will reflect that you do not want such contributions appearing.
So when you see a headline from the Herald Sun saying the defeat of the legislation in the Upper House will see the end of “lockdowns” and “mandatory vaccination” in Victoria you hit the thumbs down – with the objective of wiping out the ability of (particularly Murdoch) to have their headlines in the line of vision.
Somewhere it has to send a message.
And in regards the Liberal Party/Murdoch headline, where would the World (including Victoria) be now absent vaccines and adherence of people to virus spread mitigation protocols?
We don’t have to look too far to see the answer.
Hence the push to supply vaccines globally.
Yet, in Victoria Murdoch and his Liberal Party are promoting not getting vaccinated and not adhering to spread mitigation protocols.
It is my opinion that the Liberal Party are murderers, from the National Service Act onward (where was “freedom of choice” for those conscripted and sent to their death?), that is their DNA and it continues today.
Capitalism, greed and money.
Why the F would you ‘privatise’ security at a place like this ? What is Oberhufbeschlaglehrmeister Kartoffel up to ? Helping private sector maaaates ? Or by putting it into private hands, rather than the PS, does it mean scrutiny of certain things are put out of reach of parliamentary oversight/review ? It sure as hell cannot be a burning desire to ‘save money’.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-18/afp-no-longer-patrolling-harold-holt-naval-centre-remote-wa/100627198
I find it hilarious that, not content with naming a public swimming pool after Harold Holt, we’ve also named the submarine comms station after him.
Any port in a storm?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-18/committee-recommends-finding-vickie-chapman-guilty-contempt/100629474
poroti @ #131 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:31 am
Because private security guards would be paid much less than AFP employees. 🙂
poroti says:
Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 12:31 pm
Why the F would you ‘privatise’ security at a place like this ?
…’
=====================
Heeeeeeeeeeeeeey Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate!
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.
Observer
Just on paywalls, it strikes me as strange indeed that, on your iphone, going to Apple News, you get access to all these headlines including particularly from the Murdoch media then to find access to the article is behind a paywall (so useless)
————
You can indicate to your iphone the news media you don’t want in your news feed.
I went through removing all Murdoch owned media from “news” on the iPhone. Not that i really use the news app.
It could be worse.
We could have Morrison as prime minister.
Oh, wait….
Well, HI and I were tested a few hours ago, pursuant to direction from the dreaded NSW Health.
Here’s hoping for a happy ending tomorrow, HI’s birthday, when we have been promised the results!
I felt obliged to tell one of our near neighbours that HI (and myself at second hand) were regarded as “Close Contacts”, despite the negative test results on Tuesday. He has visited our house a couple of times this week, and I owed him a heads-up. I explained that HI had done, to the letter, what she had been instructed to do, and that the initial negative result had meant no isolation was necessary. It was only yesterday that we were told by Health to have a second test and isolate again.
He got quite short with me when I refused to tell him who Case Zero was, or to identify those involved in any way, even down to my refusing to reveal if they were locals. All I could do was assure him that the two people who had tested positive – Case Zero this week, and his wife last week – were in full isolation and no further danger to anyone. And that he would be first to know when we received the results of the second test, taken today.
I’ve since heard back from two people that this neighbour is already out and about telling the world that there’s probably an “outbreak” in our street.
I wonder what it was like back in the Middle Ages when plague broke out with no testing, no vaccinations and no treatments. Must have been terrible.
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
I condemn threats of violence being made against public officials, and I call on Scott Morrison to show leadership and call it out as well.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga at 12:35 pm
I would be very confident the guards will be paid less . However I am even more confident the private owners will charge we taxpayers considerably more than it does now.
poroti @ #141 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 9:50 am
But they would be mates.
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases at highest level since mid-October, number in hospital rising
– New cases: 114,994 …………………. – New deaths: 1,710
– In hospital: 47,762 (+852)
– In ICU: 11,864 (+95)
787,984 total deaths now
Gettysburg – great post.
No-one in the media pointed out to Morrison that his cronies told people they were no allowed to leave Australia unless exempt
That is a government telling what people to do and it was his government who did it
Mutual obligations people are forced to do it
That is a government telling what people to do and it was his government who did it
Voter Id laws people will be forced to show proof
That is a government telling what people to do and it was his government who did it
Vaccine passports and tracing apps
That is a government telling what people to do and it was his government who did it
Robodebts are forced onto people
That is a government telling what people to do and it was his government who did it
Liking the cut of Steven Miles’ jib…
“Queensland’s deputy premier Steven Miles has accused the prime minister of attempting to appeal to anti-vaxxer in order to help curry votes in the next election after he said unvaccinated people in Brisbane should be allowed to “go get a cup of coffee” if the state is at 80% vaccination.
He is so desperate to claw together a coalition of anti-vaxxers for his own political benefit…
[The new venue vaccination rules] do not deserve to be undermined by a PM more interested in currying favour with coffee baron donors and lunatic backbenchers than the health and the jobs of Queenslanders”
Gee. Wonder why the change of heart?
First they hitch their wagon to it and now that it has escalated and shown to be far right neo nazis aided and abetted by the likes of UAP.
You would think that as leader he would have been aware of what game they were playing.
This mob are the worst of the worst.
——
Opposition Leader @MatthewGuyMP said this morning you won’t see any of his MPs at the protests outside parliament anymore @abcmelbourne #springst
Morrison going a bit hyper today – still some hours left to remove the foot out of his mouth.
Siding with the anti-vaxxers in Queensland of all places. Perhaps his gun staff could check the booth results in the last QLD election from the Gold and Sunshine Coasts and other retiree havens – they might find that the voters there want to stay living…
Victoria
MatthewGuyMP said this morning you won’t see any of his MPs at the protests outside parliament anymore
Oooops! Took him a while.