Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Slight improvement in the Coalition’s voting intention numbers, but Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to track down.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor leading 53-47, in from 54-46 three weeks ago. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (up two), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 11% (steady) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 44% and up two on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is respectively steady on 37% and up two to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has been cut from 48-34 to 46-38. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1524.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,544 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Wanna feel old? We’re not that far until the 50th anniversary of when Labor supporters first started making “It’s Time” references at every election the ALP is challenging from opposition! 😛

  2. My grandmother used to train king parrots to eat from her hand. There’s a balcony between the main house and the granny flat – when we walked out on it, the birds would fly down and sit on our heads and shoulders.

    One of my Lithuanian aunts, visiting to be at my father’s deathbed, reacted by grabbing one with both hands. We had great difficulty, given the language barrier, to make her understand she shouldn’t do that.

  3. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 9:00 pm
    Wanna feel old? We’re not that far until the 50th anniversary of when Labor supporters first started making “It’s Time” references at every election the ALP is challenging from opposition!
    _______________________
    Any only 26 years ago since Whitlam started doing “Vodafone its time ” Ads for a buck.

  4. BK @1.22pm (cc Nath and Socrates)

    I would also be interested in BK’s view on the cost:benefit analysis of the demise of the Australian car manufacturing industry. In particular, in a hypothetical world where they had continued to exist, to what extent might the Australian car manufacturers have pivoted to EV production?
    _________________
    Outsider
    Cost:benefit analysis can be a lethal thing. The question you ask turns around, like it does with considering the consequences of climate change or not, what is the scope of the examination.
    As I have poited out before, the auto industry was a highly technical field and operated in an environment where unless there was a genuine cost of goods sold reduction of around 3 to 4% year on year the future was uncertain. Not only was it the design and development that needed to be world class, it was the manufacturing engineering, supply chain and production princples that had to be of that standard. These wthingsa were not really taught properly anywhere and it was the car companies (and their overseas owners) who provided this knowledge and on the job training. The companies also provided plenty of apprenticeships and catedships to grow their own employees, someting that is sadly lacking across the country these days.
    The auto industry was a great supplier of first rate people to other industries who benefitted greatly from this. Today they are falling over each other to poach good people, in part because they don’t grow their own from entry level employment.
    Now to EVs. Australian auto manufacturers, had they survived until a year ago, would have been in the box seat to not only convert to EV manufacture, but thrive in a vertically integrated industry in the country that is rich in the natural resources and renewable energy that would be perfect for making our own batteries for EVs, home battery storage and grid storage. But now, with a government fixated on virtually giving away the stuff we dig out of the ground. and the loss of the critical skill sets to bring all these things into production, I fear for the worst.
    I hope this makes sense to you.

    Thanks for this BK. I work in the field of radio astronomy, born from electrical and mechanical engineering. While looking for the *Epoch of re-ionization we train many, many engineers, computer scientists, data scientists etc. who then take the expertise they have learned on pushing the boundaries of what can be observed in the early universe by ASKAP / MWA/ SKA and apply it to industry in Australia.

    As you can probably guess, with the CSIRO under a lot of pressure, and with some 30K jobs gone from the universities, this training is disappearing.

    Australia, with its collaboration between universities, industry and the CSIRO have produced some truely amazing things.

    FFS – wifi – how many of you realise that came out of CSIRO Radiophysics in Marsfield! I was there, I saw it developed. Getting through this pandemic with the economies around the world managing to work is very much down to the internet, especially wifi – on the move? Home schooling? Just find a playground with a nearby wifi connection, and you can do your Zoom or Teams call while caring for your kids.

    So as BK says, a cost-benefit analysis is tricky. Do the universities and CSIRO pay for themselves? On a simple economic rationalist analysis, no. But the added training, the patents etc. lead to a lot of economic growth in the private sector in Australia that would never happen without the the government research investment- now sadly diminished.

    Nath and Soc,

    You are correct in that the Tesla is manufactured in a revolutionary way, which means that which ever rich dickhead is responsible for it is making a motza.

    But, who can actually afford a Tesla? We have quite a few of them around here, in Waterloo, but there is an exponential growth in the number of Teslas per lineal metre on our roads as you go east from Waterloo. In Vaucluse they seem to make up about 25% of vehicles on the road.

    On the other hand, yes, Renault, Volkswagen, Fiat etc in the EU are not making a motza. But, they are getting EVs into the hands of many people who could never dream of affording a Tesla.

    Yeah, this is due to government subsidies, but the French and the Germans are smart enough to understand that supporting their EV manufacturing industry until it can stand on its own two feet is an investment in science, technology and training. And also reduces greenhouse emission in a way ordinary people can afford.

    * It is a long story which I can bore you all with some time. This epoch is literally the first view of the early Universe we can get with current technology, about 300,000 years after the Big Bang. Someone last night mentioned that we only exist because of the tiny asymmetry in the creation of matter and anti-matter. Most of the matter and anti-matter got together and self-annihilated, producing energy. But a tiny bit of matter survived. Imaging the epoch of re-ionization will help us understand how the Universe is as we see it now, including shading light on pesky questions such as “what is that dark matter really, and where is it hiding”.

  8. “Labor was always going to introduce a carbon price, as Firefox and I demonstrated yesterday.”

    ***

    I do believe we came to a different conclusion…

    The Greens took the ETS to the 2010 Election as part of Bandt’s election platform.

    Labor took a policy to have a “Citizens Assembly” to the 2010 Election. Thankfully, that was quietly abandoned in favour of the Greens’ ETS which Bandt gained the mandate for at the 2010 Election.

    Bandt took it to the election and he delivered.

    The conclusion that one comes to is that the Greens are indeed required to get serious action on the climate emergency.

  9. ‘poroti says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 8:40 pm

    The editor in chief of boerwar’s fave publication responds to recent comment by our Reichspud.
    .
    .
    Hu Xijin 胡锡进
    @HuXijin_GT

    China state-affiliated media
    If Australian troops come to fight in the Taiwan Straits, it is unimaginable that China won’t carry out a heavy attack on them and the Australian military facilities that support them. So Australia better be prepared to sacrifice for Taiwan island and the US
    …’
    —————————-
    Hu’s pen and Xi’s brain are as one. (Of course BiTB would know better.)

    There was a bit of chat about this particular article the other day.

    FWIW, it seems to me to be a variation on China’s previous threat to use nuclear weapons on Australia.

  10. ‘nath says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 6:44 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 6:39 pm

    nath
    Not really. That fleet was not like, say, the First Fleet in Australia – a fleet of conquest and invasion.
    ___________
    Thats true.

    But when the Spanish Archbishop of Manila believed that the Chinese had designs on The Philippines, his followers thought it best to get in first and start a massacre:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sangley_Rebellion‘
    ———————-
    The spanish were not lonesome in this matter. Every single empire of which I am aware committed massacres – usually lots of them. This includes the Chinese empire of course. BiTB would tell you that massacres can only be interpreted by employing cultural sensitivity and knowing what was going on in the brains of the emperors at the time. This may even be true to an extent.
    But the bottom line is that empires are gained and maintained by brute force.
    No cultural nuance or sensitivity required, actually.

  11. I’m with Vodafone if it’s good enough for Gough it’s good enough for me. My brother reckons Gough visited by grandad who next door in Bulimba Brisbane back in the very early 70s prior to being PM. He was a life member of the ALP and the ALP originated in Qld. Time for a fair dinkum ALP government to sweep out this hopeless LNP schemozzle.

  12. PrincePlanet says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 9:22 pm
    I’m with Vodafone if it’s good enough for Gough it’s good enough for me. My brother reckons Gough visited by grandad who next door in Bulimba Brisbane back in the very early 70s prior to being PM. He was a life member of the ALP and the ALP originated in Qld. Time for a fair dinkum ALP government to sweep out this hopeless LNP schemozzle.
    ____________________________
    Good for you – wars are fought with people like you.

  18. Here’s an opening for cuddly, caring, trustworthy Dutton:

    PM loses trust lead over Albanese

    For the first time, Scott Morrison trails Anthony on trust, likability, caring and understanding the major issues of concern for most Australians, according to Newspoll.
    9 MINUTES AGO By SIMON BENSON
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  20. FF
    “The conclusion that one comes to is that the Greens are indeed required to get serious action on the climate emergency.”

    The Greens’ achievements on climate change, plus three dollars, buys you a cup of coffee.

  22. Rossmore says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 9:27 pm

    I see the SMH has ‘cancelled’ Paul Keating’s response to Hartcher’s piece
    ______________________
    Probably a good thing. Also prevents Hartcher’s response to Keating’s response.

  23. “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”…

    Yeah, yeah, the 2019 federal election… the opinion polls…. the actual result…. blah, blah…

    For how long can you live on just “miracles”?

  26. Boerwar

    BiTB would tell you that massacres can only be interpreted by employing cultural sensitivity and knowing what was going on in the brains of the emperors at the time.

    Making shit up about other people. Verballing. Personal abuse. Contradicting yourself.

    A person can understand and explain the reasons for some event, while not approving of it.

    You provide a list of dots. You tell us that you have no preference for how the dots should be joined. You ask people to “join the dots”. People do so in their own way. At this point I’d expect someone with no preference to go “thank you, that’s interesting” but instead you verbal them. They are just doing what you ask, so why?

    That doesn’t make any sense unless, of course, you don’t like their answer because you actually do have a preference for how to join the dots, and their proposed pattern of dots does not match your preferred pattern. (by “pattern of dots” we are of course talking motives, beliefs, etc)

  27. Is that the very same Harcher who, with Sheridan, went to NZ in the lead up to their election and, with Sheridan, was all over NZ media saying to turf the government out?

    The very same government which became the first in NZ to not have to enter into Coalition to form a government

    So the NZ voters rejected the advice of Harcher and Sheridan and their descriptions of the carnage the return of a Labour government would inflict

    It is noted that the NZ pm has been on the World stage over the past week

    Compare her contribution to the “contribution” of the Australian pm

  31. Splendid job by “Media Watch” tonight highlighting what a fraud & bozo Morrison is, with even Bolt & Credlin joining in. It seems his “Scomo” persona is running out of steam, and his ludicrous slogan of “Can do Capitalism” hasn’t impressed. It’s going to be great to watch him become unhinged when the election campaign starts.

  33. Has the Shire Liar figured out a way to explain why his carbon tax isn’t a carbon tax without telling more lies?

    He’s been reduced to a vortex disappearing up his own orifice.

  34. The West Australian’s front page is up on Facebook.
    It has a report that Christian Porter is close to a decision on whether to run again at the next election.
    The alternative, the report says, is the Sydney bar.
    Just what they need.

  36. Griff says:
    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 11:03 pm

    He was pissed… he couldn’t stop smirking… just turned away smiling & walked off.

    Saw 30 seconds of the Shias Liar being quizzed by someone re carbon tax being a carbon tax etc… SL stumbled & mumbled … he is finished… Dutton will be the next PM… biggest landslide win to Labor since Federation

  37. Griff:

    Monday, November 15, 2021 at 11:03 pm

    [‘This is so sad to watch. The Deputy P.’]

    He thinks he hasn’t reached rock-bottom yet. That’s the tipping point when those suffering what Joyce appears to suffer from sometimes seek professional help.

  40. So if a Health Minister is unable to do anything reasonable to protect public health (during a Pandemic, which is what we currently have confirming the frailty of human life on this planet) what is their function?

    What are they elected to do?

    What we have is voices concerned at “anything reasonable”

    But who are these voices commanding so much attention?

    Everyone votes

    So, in offering their opinions perhaps they should declare who they voted for and their history of voting

    Even Media Editors and solicitors vote

    We know 9 Entertainment donates to the Liberal Party

    Or is the expectation a politician such as the Colossal Fossil – all noise and no action

    Including in its requirements of the Aged Care industry, those it has sold bed licences to.

    And its audit of those businesses

    8 days to advise State authorities

    No back up staff when those staff fall ill (not even the much vaunted Army we have heard so much of). Noting they are not highly paid for their shifts

    No protections from any infection on site

    And the list goes on and on

    So is this the government model which is optimal?

    I think not

  42. Apparently Sky News Australia’s biggest audience anywhere is Americans on YouTube.

    When I see them post videos on elections in places like Virginia I am left scratching my head thinking how is this newsworthy?
    Its completely irrelevant!
    Literally No Australian is sitting up at night awake thinking or caring who the Premier of Virginia is

  46. India’s infection rate continues to fall (well, at leas the official one).

    India is now at 5 infections per 100,000 people per week. Compared to Australia’s 36.

    Proof that “letting it rip” works! (Well, apart from the uncounted death toll and bodies floating down the river…)

  47. Themunz @ #492 Monday, November 15th, 2021 – 5:10 pm

    Possibly true for legacy car makers but for Tesla the car is designed and built around the computer and AI. It is a computer on wheels.

    Not really, for a couple different reasons.

    Several legacy carmakers have repurposed a preexisting ICE chassis for their initial EV attempt(s). This tends to produce poor/quirky results (transmission tunnel down the middle of the interior, etc.). The smart legacy carmakers are using a platform built around the battery. Usually though they seem to need to have an unsuccessful initial effort at recycling one of their ICE designs as an EV before they learn that they really need to design their EV as an EV from the ground up.

    And Tesla is no different. The physical car is designed and built around the battery pack. It literally has to be. It’s why structural battery packs are kind of a big deal. The UX of driving a Tesla is designed around the computer, sure. But that’s got nothing to do with how the vehicle’s put together. The computer is small and can go basically anywhere. Getting the battery and drive-train right is what lets you have roomy interiors, good driving characteristics with a low center of gravity and uniform weight distribution, etc.. Teslas are built around the battery and marketed around the computer.

    AI is driving self driving software

    Kind of. AI drives parts of the implementation. Object classification, etc.. Other parts are just plain old hand-written code executing deterministically.

  49. Thermunz @6:10pm

    “AI is essential to self driving software and other software controls the way all the components inter react which enables Tesla to improve each car by software updates throughout its life”

    Yes, except that Tesla’s “self driving” promise is a fraud.

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