Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

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  1. Socrates @ #2049 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 8:38 am

    Mundo/Bakunin

    “ Jaguar Land Rover is developing a hydrogen-electric powertrain that relies on a fuel-cell to combine hydrogen and oxygen in a process that generates electricity and only leaves water as a byproduct. The generated electricity is used to power electric motors driving the wheels, as well as charge a relatively small battery that can also help power the electric motors during high-load situations.”

    That is the standard process by which every hydrogen/fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) works. Nothing new. It is expensive, complex, less safe and inefficient. For the energy you need to make the hydrogen, even if green, you can power three battery EVs. The announcement is greenwashing.

    Yes it’s pathetic to see how some people are grasping at ‘Anything But EVs’ straws.


  2. “The notion advanced by some advocates that Scott Morrison should take a nuclear industry proposal to the 2022 election would be an act of electoral madness and court political suicide. Morrison has enough problems at present without gifting Labor the perfect scare campaign on an issue that has no policy or political saliency”, writes Paul Kelly.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/why-nuclear-power-for-australia-is-just-a-grand-fantasy/news-story/e8a35f288ca1ea44be9bec66864f3536

    So what Pompous Ponderous pontificating Paul Kelly implies is that Nuclear industry should be introduced by stealth like Nuclear subs to give an opportunity to commentators like him to say that what a beautiful strategy it is to have Nuclear subs without explaining how we acquire that capability.

    To hell with transparency.

  3. “Yes, more charging stations are a good idea but for a farm ute, the range and home charging options are not an obstacle.”

    Good point, and with a lot of farmers doing off grid power and storage, all kinds of possibilities.

    Have to say if i had any ambitions around renewables, it would be to rebuild the falling down shack i live in and include one of these.

    https://lavo.com.au/

    Someone mentioned “hydrogen sponges” upthread??

  4. “I have been speculating what is going to happen to all those voters who have been cheering on Morrison for owning the Greens.”

    ***

    lol huh? The Greens have been “owned” by Morrison’s pathetically weak EV policy, have we? Haha righto.

    You’ll understand why I’m not exactly quaking in my boots right now. I don’t know who Morrison thinks he’s kidding with all this but it sure as hell ain’t the Greens.

  5. imacca @ #2340 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 9:15 am

    Seems there are quite a few issues with general build quality though the EV system is good.

    There are, mostly nitpicky things though like “panel gaps” and paint issues. Nothing that you see when driving the car, and nothing that affects how well it actually drives. All fixed for free under warranty (as they should be), less the cost of the time/frustration that accrues waiting for all the nitpicky things to be fixed.

    It’s an overstated issue. And also diminishing over time. The MiC build quality is reported to be quite good (just don’t tell Boerwar).

  6. Vogon Poet @ #2118 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 10:19 am

    ar : Thanks for the offer, I don’t think they care what colour you get them.
    imacca : You obviously don’t know any Youf. A Rav is something your boring mum drives. Cool people have Tesla’s ( that’s what I’m told )
    Pimps even have gold ones

    And our local real estate agent, who thinks he’s James Bond, has one of these:

    A 2021 Aston Martin Vantage. 😐

  7. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 10:25 am
    “I have been speculating what is going to happen to all those voters who have been cheering on Morrison for owning the Greens.”

    ***

    lol huh? The Greens have been “owned” by Morrison’s pathetically weak EV policy, have we? Haha righto.

    Nonetheless, the Greens will campaign day-in/day-out for the re-election of the reactionaries. They have no real choice in this, having long ago decided their success is predicated on disabling Labor. The Greens will persist with their Quixotic mission. Their own version of a chivalric code will keep them in line with the hoodlums and burglars that comprise the LNP. Life is steeped in irony.

  8. imacca @ #2095 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 9:15 am

    “I can say that a Tesla is the ultimate aspirational vehicle of the Youth.”

    LOL! Me, i probably would not do Tesla. Seems there are quite a few issues with general build quality
    though the EV system is good.

    . Current aspiration after a lotto win? Probably a RAV4 Hybrid??

    Apparently the Tesla’s are unrepairable for anyone other than a dealer, no doubt at premium prices

    Hyundai Kona electric looks like the go. https://www.hyundai.com/au/en/cars/suvs/kona/kona-electric?gclsrc=aw.ds&gclid=CjwKCAiA1aiMBhAUEiwACw25McgfXnSKBYA2HwyCMHTI1imq9w0ffv0Bmok04Ig_94aus9YAMlDh3hoCk58QAvD_BwE


  9. Chris Uhlmann comes out of the cloisters to tell us how Morrison was torn apart by Macron’s Napoleonic zeal.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/how-morrison-was-torn-apart-by-macron-s-napoleonic-zeal-20211109-p59768.html

    Yesterday someone on this blog mentioned media flakes who travelled with Morrison to Rome and Glasgow.
    Then I mentioned that most of the media flakes except Coorey and Ulhmann were tasty if not crunchy.
    Well Ladies and Gentlemen today I present Chris Ulhmann, another of those loyal servants of Morrison.

  10. I notice that the decision for recommending Pfizer for under 12’s has been postponed until more data comes in from the US. That is good. This is not something to be rushed.

    I am most interested to see just how much transmission does happen from children to adults and what the real world immunity result is from kids who have been vaccinated vs those who catch it naturally. As mentioned in previous posts; I find it absurd (somewhere between stubborn ignorance and idiocy) that adults refuse the vaccine and am comfortable in 12-16yos getting vaccinated. I am not sold on vaccinating under 12’s for Covid.

  11. I don’t this this guy will be admitted to bail again and the magistrate who approved his application should do a refresher course of what constitutes a flight risk:

    [‘Fugitive and alleged drug kingpin Mostafa Baluch has been found hiding inside a Mercedes being transported in a truck travelling to Queensland, after more than two weeks on the run.

    Police say the 33-year-old was “desperate to leave Australia” after he broke off his ankle monitor and fled just days after being granted bail. He was last seen at Bayview, on Sydney’s northern beaches, on October 25.

    Mostafa Baluch, charged over his alleged role in a drug importation syndicate, was wanted for allegedly breaching bail.

    He was the subject of a domestic and international manhunt before Queensland Police stopped a truck as it crossed the border into Queensland, at Tweed Heads, about 1am on Wednesday.

    “Officers searched the container on the back of the truck, where they located the 33-year-old man hiding inside a grey Mercedes,” NSW Police said in a statement.

    Mr Baluch was arrested and taken to Southport watch house.’]

    The maximum penalty for the crime he allegedly committed is life (s.307.1(1) Criminal Code) but if convicted he’ll probably get 18 to 20 years.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/alleged-drug-kingpin-and-fugitive-mostafa-baluch-arrested-20211110-p597kt.html

  12. Firefox @ #2108 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 9:25 am

    “I have been speculating what is going to happen to all those voters who have been cheering on Morrison for owning the Greens.”

    ***

    lol huh? The Greens have been “owned” by Morrison’s pathetically weak EV policy, have we? Haha righto.

    You’ll understand why I’m not exactly quaking in my boots right now. I don’t know who Morrison thinks he’s kidding with all this but it sure as hell ain’t the Greens.

    You obviously didn’t get the main point of my post because you were so inflamed by the phrase “owning the Greens” which I quoted ironically.

  13. Lizzie @10.18:

    Apologies. I deleted the post about Coorey as it seemed the link to the interview did not work.

    Interview was on RN Breakfast at 7.48 am. Trying again.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/pm-fund-low-emission-technology-politics-with-phil-coorey/13624444

    Yes, the poor PM has apparently not been able to campaign (Coorey’s word) since May last year. Relevant section of interview, if you want to avoid the rest starts at 4.20 minutes.

  14. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 10:33 am

    Playing dress-ups in Scotland. Make-believe is very common. Morrison certainly practices make-believe, seemingly in nearly all things. SHY is playing make-believe too. Fantasy. Stunt. Fiction. Sick Joke. Take your pick.

  15. The West Australian reports today that 72 percent of WA people aupoort McGowan’s latest plan on owning the border, down from 82 per cent three weeks ago.
    The story says “Labor MPs representing more affluent areas of Perth, which also have the highest vaccination rates, are hearing complaints from voters about WA being sealed off for Christmas”.
    Never thought I’d see words like “ Labor MPs representing more affluent areas”.
    I suspect the only numbers McGowan cares about are 53 and two, being the number of seats Labor and the Liberals hold respectively in the Legislative Assembly.
    If only the people of Nedlands and Churchlands and South Perth and Scarborough could still complain to a Liberal MP.

  16. “You obviously didn’t get the main point of my post because you were so inflamed by the phrase “owning the Greens” which I quoted ironically.”

    ***

    No I actually did get your point. I wasn’t having a go at you at all, just replying to your observation of what some people seem to think. I think you may have misinterpreted my post as an attack on you when it was nothing of the sort. 🙂

  17. A sensible decision of the High Court:

    [‘Northern Territory Constable Zachary Rolfe will not be able to use a claim he acted in “good faith” in his role as a police officer when he shot and killed Kumanjayi Walker at Yuendumu in 2019.

    Mr Walker died when he was shot by Constable Rolfe, who had gone to the community to arrest him over a breach of a suspended sentence.

    Constable Rolfe has been charged with murder, but his trial was delayed at the last minute to allow prosecutors to ask the High Court to throw out the good faith defence.

    The full bench of the Northern Territory Supreme Court had earlier ruled he should be able to use the defence.

    The case has focused on 148B(1) of the Police Administration Act, which provides for a person to not be civilly or criminally liable for something done in good faith in the exercise of their job.

    Northern Territory prosecutor Philip Strickland told the High Court if the Northern Territory Supreme Court ruling stood, the jury could end up not having to consider whether Constable Rolfe’s actions were reasonable.’]

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-10/zachary-rolfe-police-officer-murder-trial-defence-high-court/100588200

  18. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 10:41 am

    Green/Blue…same/same on the fundamental question of whether or not Labor should rule.


  19. The alarming deterioration of relations between French leader Emmanuel Macron and Scott Morrison was driven by arrogance and ignorance on the Australian side, opines Mike Scrafton.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-french-disconnection-australias-dysfunctional-diplomacy/

    Can I say ‘Doh’? Sure the French Subs project was running late and we want Nuclear Subs. How many Government projects whether they are Federal or State projects aren’t running late. Some say over 80% government projects are running late. Take for example carpork project. Already ”
    almost $100 million over budget, will deliver fewer car parks than promised and may not be completed before the middle of this decade.”
    Since we want Nuclear Subs now, surprise surprise, French build even those things.

  20. Singing Bloos @ #2370 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 10:08 am

    Firefox says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 10:33 am

    Playing dress-ups in Scotland. Make-believe is very common. Morrison certainly practices make-believe, seemingly in nearly all things. SHY is playing make-believe too. Fantasy. Stunt. Fiction. Sick Joke. Take your pick.

    I am over the conferences too. I think this is going to head down the road to regional and cross regional agreements on carbon tariffs. If Europe get it underway I can see benefit in the US joining and wedging China and Russia. It would also be in the interests of India and Brazil to join and in the interests of Europe to make it easy for them to do so.

    Australia can shove itself up their ‘we dont matter’ backdoor.

  21. The main problem I have with Tudge’s “lets celebrate how great we are” approach to Australian history is that it is antithetical to the purpose of studying our history in the first place: to understand why and how we got to where we are so we can now make it a better place for the future. In doing so, we give honest honour to the efforts of those who sought to make changes in the past that have helped make Australia what it is today, not disparage them.

    This requires applying a critical approach. A critical approach is often mistakenly considered pejorative. It is incompatible with being the Minister for Education that Tudge would make this mistake.

    Tudge’s observation that “future generations would be unwilling to defend the nation against threats to its liberal democracy” demonstrates the overt propaganda program he is peddling. It is hardly a stretch to interpret this comment as essentially saying let’s fill kids heads with bullshit so that they can go out and die for us.

    He should have been sacked for his blatant contempt of court 2 years ago. He should be sacked for his demonstrated contempt/ignorance of historical method now.

  22. Adrian Esterman has today’s NSW Reff at above 1:00 (though down from yesterday) and Vic at 1:00, having been below that for some time. Chris Billington’s respective calcs are 0.99 +/- 0.11 and 0.86 +/- 0.6. I’m not sure how the calculation methods vary and which estimates provide a better guide to what’s going on.

    “Cloudy day in Adelaide with a top of 22. 216 new local cases for NSW and 3 deaths. The 7-day moving average is fairly stable at 228, and the Reff is down slightly to 1.08.
    Professor Adrian Esterman
    @profesterman
    ·
    1h
    Another 1003 local cases for Victoria, and sadly 14 deaths. The 7-day moving average is up to 1160, and the Reff has gone back up to 1.00.”

  23. I haven’t been paying attention to what Scotty said, but it was reported that
    UK plans to invest in 5000? charging stations along major highways
    Australia plans to install 5000? charging stations in private homes
    A charging station tops up battery 100% in 10 minutes
    An overnight charge off the grid charges a battery 30% overnight

    Victoria has aging electricity grid, designed and built in 1950s & 1960s for electricity demand for that era. On hot summer days chi chi suburbs like Brighton experience brown outs when every one turns on their airconditioning, because even though the number of dwellings has doubled its still the old poles and wires

    A high speed charging point needs more electricity than is delivered to your house

    John Cadogan autoexpert.com says that overseas you can purchase hybrid vehicles that allow you to charge the battery from mains electricity or run on petrol on long distance drives. Toyota sell such models overseas but not in Australia

    I would like a car that runs on battery & petrol at an affordable price so I am happy to wait until they arrive

  24. “Did someone forget to tell her meeting cancelled”

    ***

    Yep, you figured it out. Looks like they also forgot to tell former US President Obama too…

  25. Not all rorting of public money is equal. Some rorting consumes a great deal of time and attention at ICAC and IBAC, and ends the political careers of Premiers and Ministers, and some does not. In the case of Federal Liberal rorting, its practitioners are so incompetent that they can’t even manage to deploy the hundreds of millions they’ve promised to spend on voters. Strangely, I noticed glancing at newspaper headlines at the grocer’s just now, this is not a matter that concerns the Murdoch press. They are rather captivated by Scottie’s miraculous Green Shoots.
    ——————————.—

    “The federal government’s railway station car park program is almost $100 million over budget, will deliver fewer car parks than promised and may not be completed before the middle of this decade.

    Documents released under freedom of information laws show the commuter car park fund is now on track to cost taxpayers more than $711 million despite several projects being abandoned, with the government facing cost overruns for those car parks on track to be built.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/car-park-fund-over-budget-and-running-late-20211109-p597cm.html

  26. Firefox says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 11:01 am
    “Did someone forget to tell her meeting cancelled”

    Same place different time.. I assume SHY just woke up in the former shot.. having found everyone had left. 😉

  27. Guardian..
    Low emissions technology to receive $500m boost, including carbon capture and storage
    Rules will be changed to allow Clean Energy Finance Corporation to invest in the controversial technology…. The fund will be administered by the Clean Energy Finance Corporation after the Coalition legislates new rules allowing it to invest in CCS, …..… a controversial technology experts warn can’t be relied on to do the heavy lifting of Australia’s emissions reduction.

    The Shire Liar will invest in fantacy support of COAL but not real science on carbon reduction in the first place … typical of a christian fantasist

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