The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.
A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.
Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:
The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.
In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.
Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.
Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.
The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.
HC judgement summary of the backpacker’s case:
https://cdn.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2021/hca-34-2021-11-03.pdf
“At least his thoughts are original and not cut and paste of other people’s words.”
***
Onya Cat. Weren’t you supposed to be pretending to block me again?
Or have you only got me blocked on Twitter now after I called out your racism directed at Tu Le…
Roskam is much closer to the average Australian the all the the quotes I see daily from the Guardian. Who do they represent Greens and the left of Labor.
The Aukus pact is a great achievement, having to put Macron’s nose out of joint to do it was more than necessary.
Then the big sook had to go and call Morrison a liar when he should have been talking about climate change.
He cared more about his feelings than global warming, what a wanker.
Then cracks the shits when caught out lying that he did not know the deal was on the skids.
Has anyone heard from Dave Sharma? He can be relied on to explain the purity of Morrison’s actions.
Steely, you’re a bigger liar than Morrison.
Revising what only happened yesterday!
Steely
Have you thought of trying for the diplomatic service? I feel you would bring a refreshing attitude to the old stale traditions.
Cut Snake, I imagine it will all be ok if there are so many professional pickers about.
Personally I think it is a great thing there is a ruling on this obvious area of dodgy industrial activity , it’s just a pity that the industry as a whole doesn’t seek to rectify the situation regarding those producers that do the wrong thing…but that might be unpalatable to some I imagine.
Maybe one day Tu Le will be so high-profile and so critical that she will be parachuted into a blue-ribbon seat. Who knows? I don’t know the lady, maybe she’s brilliant and a potential star but it’s very early days for her. In our system, which doesn’t fully separate the legislative/representative and executive branches of government, this sort of thing is inevitable and both sides do it. Aspiring politicians know it.
Now if Ministers were selected from outside of the Parliament, this wouldn’t be an issue, but no one is agitating for that.
My two cents’ worth, perhaps an accurate valuation.
Life expectancy in Australia has continued to rise despite the pandemic, with the nation’s success in controlling the coronavirus helping boost the average expected lifespan to 83.2 years.
Henry Cutler, director of the Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, said the data reflected Australia’s comparative success in controlling COVID-19 and its strong health system.
A boy born in 2020 is expected to live to 81.2 years and a girl to 85.3 years.
“The US and UK were significantly impacted by COVID-19 and had significant death rates,” Professor Cutler said.
“Australia was somewhat spared because of our response and our ability to close our borders and to control COVID-19 within our communities.”
In 2020, just 0.6 per cent of all deaths in Australia – 898 – were due to COVID-19, compared with 73,766 in the United Kingdom (12 per cent, making it the leading cause of death) and 345,323 in the United States (10 per cent, the third leading cause after heart disease and cancer.)
Steve777 says:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 8:10 pm
Maybe one day Tu Le will be so high-profile and so critical that she will be parachuted into a blue-ribbon seat. Who knows? I don’t know the lady, maybe she’s brilliant and a potential star but it’s very early days for her. In our system, which doesn’t fully separate the legislative/representative and executive branches of government, this sort of thing is inevitable and both sides do it. Aspiring politicians know it.
Now if Ministers were selected from outside of the Parliament, this wouldn’t be an issue, but no one is agitating for that.
My two cents’ worth, perhaps an accurate valuation.
__________________________________
Do you understand the criticism of Tu Le being shoved aside for Keneally?
All I can ask is… Why? Why are all these people putting their reputations on the line for this idiot?
The alleged abductor of little Cleo had/has a dolls’ collection:
[The man accused of abducting four-year-old Cleo Smith from her family tent and holding her captive for 18 days has been identified as Carnarvon man, Terence Kelly.
The 36-year-old was picked up by WA Police after detectives raided his locked Tonkin Crescent home at 12.46am on Wednesday local time and found the little girl alone inside a bedroom.
On Thursday, Mr Kelly was charged with forcibly or fraudulently taking or enticing a child. He is due to appear before Carnarvon Magistrates Court.
WA Police Detective Senior Sergeant Cameron Blaine said Cleo was found in physically good health in a bedroom inside Mr Kelly’s house.
“The lights were on and she was playing with toys, I think that’s about all I want to say. This is still a matter that needs to go before the courts. There’s certain aspects about what we saw that is going to be evidence,” he said.
Detectives declined to comment on whether dolls were found inside the house, with the head of Taskforce Rodia, Superintendent Rod Wilde, telling journalists he “didn’t want to go into that”.
Neighbours described Mr Kelly as a loner who lived in his public housing property by himself. In recent days, residents said he had been coming and going from the house with groceries.
“He’s been acting a bit strange lately, he would get in his car drive that fast,” one neighbour said.
“He doesn’t have his dog out the front, he had his dog out the back, but for all this week he had his dog out the front and he’s been acting like weird.”]
https://www.smh.com.au/national/cleo-smith-s-alleged-abductor-had-room-full-of-dolls-20211103-p595ny.html
I remember when Rudd had saluted G W Bush and it was met with a lot of scorn by the Murdoch press as an international scandal.
Little did I know the lengths that Murdoch press would go to protect a Liberal PM on the international stage, despite being called a liar by 2 different nations and then going on to leak private conversation .
I can only imagine the calls for a Labor PM to resign over anything remotely like this.
Asha, if drink driving is beyond the pale, what sins of an MP should be forgiven?
Adultery?
Financial failure/bankruptcy?
Stupid posts on the internet as a teenager/ or pre Parly on PB?
Gambling?
By your own standard Bob Hawke would have been disqualified from ever sitting in Parliament.
The latest on the New jersey Governor’s race by Steve Kornacki:
https://youtu.be/bTnqYH8N248
LOL
Do you understand the criticism of Tu Le being shoved aside for Keneally?
I don’t and really, compared to the fact that our Prime Minister is a lying, corrupt charlatan who is doing great damage to our country, it’s pretty small beer and not on my radar. I could add it to my list of things to worry about, behind why hexane isn’t called sexane.
Asha @ #1867 Thursday, November 4th, 2021 – 8:13 pm
That’s a rhetorical question, surely?
Tim Smith is an aggressive attack dog who sees nothing wrong with getting down in the gutter, nay down the drain into the sewer, to attack Labor. What’s not to like for a Liberal? Plus he has those weird piercing grey eyes that attract attention when he speaks publicly. It means you can’t help but look at him and listen to what he is saying.
Steve777 says:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 8:23 pm
Do you understand the criticism of Tu Le being shoved aside for Keneally?
I don’t and really, compared to the fact that our Prime Minister is a lying, corrupt charlatan who is doing great damage to our country, it’s pretty small beer and not on my radar. I could add it to my list of things to worry about, behind why hexane isn’t called sexane.
_________________________________
Have you ever voted in a preselection?
New Jersey Democratic Governor re-elected for the first time in 44 years. So, not all bad news for the Dems yesterday.
I heard PK interview Senator Patrick on the drive home this evening.
In his view the Government should have cancelled the Attack class program earlier and announced AUKUS at a later date.
However, on the one hand Patrick says that the Collins class will be very vulnerable to detection because of its indiscretion rate (having to snorkel, turn on the diesel generator to recharge the batteries) by around 2032, yet accepts the Government’s claim that it will have a first nuclear sub in the water by 2040. Not only is that an 8 year capability gap right there, in truth its a 15 year capability gap (until we get at least 3 subs – all operational and capable of being sustained in australia) and then only if everything goes right with the SSN program. This all has the air of fantasy, doesn’t it?
Patrick doesnt like the fact that each of the gateways under Attack class program have missed their deadlines. There are lots of reasons for that: including ineptitude from the RAN side, ScoMo’s personally selected consultants having their blood funnels out and the audacious nature of the program itself: the goal of obtaining near SSN capabilities from a conventional submarine platform that had a high degree of future proofing built into it. Ultimately, from everything I’ve read, most of the delays stemmed from two aspects: a naval desire to ‘make sure’ that the design phase was perfected and a drift in direction from the government, as defence saw a succession of defence minsters since the French won the competitive evaluation bid: Paine, Chobo, Pyne, Reynolds, the Reich potato.
Perhaps in hindsight we should have simply gone with an evolved Collins class or an enlarged Type 212 (if we could have convinced the Germans of an Australian build) but by 2021 we were neck deep into the Attack class program, and despite fears of further delays (as if this program was the first large defence acquisition program to suffer delays lol) we almost certainly had the first 3-4 boats operational well before 2040.
Furthermore, this indirection rate argument against SSKs is a red herring. It does Senator Patrick no favours to trot it out now. Even for the Collins class, its a non issue. The Collins was designed and built ‘for but not with’ the Sterling AIP system. It was not added because it has always been thought that Collins’s snorkeling system was effectively undetectable. If NOW the advice is that advances in oceanic satellite surveillance is such as to effectively reverse that earlier advice, then the Collins is quite capable of having Naval Group’s fuel cell AIP retrofitted as part of their planned upgrades to take place from 2026. they could also have their acid lead batteries swapped out for safer modern li-ion batteries, just like the Germans, Italians, Indians are doing now with their SSKs, and which the Japanese have already done with the last two Soryu class boats in service. Those measures an effective counter to the possibility of satellite surveillance, as it would allow for submerged operations for weeks at a time at a time without having to snort: more than enough time for the sneaky beaky missions we undertake in the littoral coastal waters to our north with our SSKs.
of course, the Attack Class would have had even greater pathways for capability evolution. There certainly wouldn’t have been a decades long capability gap if we proceeded with the construction of the first block of 3-4 boats this decade, entering service next decade. Of course, it would need a change of government – and a considerable amount of policy courage – to fix this clusterfuck now …
Ween, weed? Never!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzYykIA1xVg
Have you ever voted in a preselection?
I am not now nor have I ever been a member of any political party.
Steve777 doesn’t vote in preselections. He spends most days evaluating and adjusting his list of 7000 things to worry about.
Firefoxsays:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 8:00 pm
“At least his thoughts are original and not cut and paste of other people’s words.”
***
Onya Cat. Weren’t you supposed to be pretending to block me again?
Or have you only got me blocked on Twitter now after I called out your racism directed at Tu Le…
Lol. ‘Racism’. I’m Colour Blind and Race Blind, Firefox. I just want the best candidate for the job of representing Labor and Tu Le behaved like a spoilt brat because she wasn’t handed the position on a platter. Nothing to do with her race. She just didn’t cut the mustard.
Also,
1. I have only seen your posts again, sadly, since you went back from Firefox2 to Firefox. I have rectified that problem.
2. I come across your posts when I undo C+ to Edit my posts. Sadly.
In this instance you made an unfounded schoolyard level taunt about me which I say when I undid C+, so I replied.
Can certain persons stop dredging up old crap, please.
“Do you understand the criticism of Tu Le being shoved aside for Keneally?”
If she got the seat. There were reports that she only moved into the electorate last year. And one member reportdly suggested she only attended her first branch meeting in Fowler this year.
I will also say that alot Greens on this forum for weeks jumped on Tu Le as proof Labor has no diversity in terms of multiculturalism in their canidates. But when Labor preselect Sally Sitou, the daughter of Chinese parents who fled Laos after the Vietnam war as their canidate in the marginal seat of Hughes nothing is said.
Oh, good work Firefox. Now you’re into Doxxing people on this blog? What a pathetic piece of crap you are. I think you need to get help.
Firefox says:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 5:17 pm
“But, I would have thought you had more respect for the Blog than to persist with this never ending inanity that you propose to inflict on PB.”
***
Really? We are talking about Briefly here
My neologisms seemed to stumble on the word-press doorstep so I stopped using them. But there are many other ways to describe the Green underlings of the LNP. So many dumplings to savour. We know them as surrogates, deputies, reserves and clones; as proxies, allies, agents, flunkies and tools; as gophers, substitutes, scouts and ensigns; as shadows, seeds, accomplices, clients, tributaries, siblings, alternates, cyphers, tricks, moles, dupes, associates, colleagues and protégés; as goblins, gnomes and gargoyles. There is no end to it.
Asha @ #1937 Thursday, November 4th, 2021 – 8:13 pm
It’s the Liberal way: we will decide who is fit to run and circumstances under which they’re pre-selected.
Yes PNightw – living 2 streets out of the electorate is clearly comparable to Scotland Island.
“Oh, good work Firefox. Now you’re into Doxxing people on this blog? What a pathetic piece of crap you are. I think you need to get help.”
***
Truth hurts hey. Just go back to “blocking” me and we’ll leave it at that for the sake of the rest of the blog.
Scomo proved to everyone that there really is no political cost to knifing a sitting PM – despite what all the commentators try and tell us to the contrary.
Just to clarify:
There are no political costs to a knifing if you are an LNP Prime Minister
Of course the rules are different if you are a Labor one
Mr Bowe,
As you are around, could I please ask you what your opinion is about contributors doxxing others without their permission please?
Does it not violate the Terms of Service of this website, as it does for many others?
‘Essentially, doxing is revealing and publicizing the records of an individual, which were previously private or difficult to obtain.’
You should know that you can’t just ask Firefox to stop. He wouldn’t stop targeting zoomster until he was banned.
Steelydansays:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 7:43 pm
“The ALP’s support for Emmanuel Macron against Scott Morrison forgets that in a diplomatic spat between two national leaders, the public will probably back the Australian.”
Yep
________________
Is all starting to remind me a bit of how Labor was predicting a war between ourselves and Indonesia over boat turnbacks.
That was fucking ripper of a scare campaign if you were a liberal voter.
Lars:
Drink driving is a crime, one which carries the chance of causing untold tragedy and which much of Australian society views with increasing disdain. You can’t compare breaking the law to a moral transgression like adultery.
I wonder how much sympathy Tim Smith would have for some guy on 40k a year who got the sack because he lost his licence in a DUI?
Politicians’ careers end all the time for far less.
“Mr Bowe,
As you are around, could I please ask you what your opinion is about contributors doxxing others without their permission please?”
***
You posted your twitter handle here years ago. I didn’t reveal anything you hadn’t already done yourself. You’re just upset that I called out your disgusting behaviour.
To me, Rowe’s Alan Jones echoes the floating pustular Baron Harkonnen (Dune, the 1984 Lynch one).
Firefox,
It’s not the truth. But what does hurt is you thinking you can ride roughshod over people’s private information and that you have some sort of self-justified right to publish it.
Asha says:
Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 8:42 pm
. You can’t compare breaking the law to a moral transgression like adultery.
_____________
Who says adultery is a moral transgression?
But when Labor preselect Sally Sitou, the daughter of Chinese parents who fled Laos after the Vietnam war
But Hughes is a predominantly white anglo-saxon electorate so it should have a white person representing it right?
I don’t shed any tears for Tim Sim asha.
My only q of you is there any measure of forgiveness or compassion for any politician?
Bob Hawke was a terrible drunk yet was a very popular and successful PM.
sure drink driving is a crime, as is jaywalking and parking illegally – should this be disqualifying for a politician?
C@t, I deleted the comment prior to your complaint on the grounds that he was dredging up old crap, just like Briefly whose last comment also got chopped. I’m not exactly sure what to call what Firefox is doing here, but it isn’t doxxing.
The only one engaging in disgusting behaviour is you, Firefox. You seem to be unable to distinguish between what I choose to publish about myself, and when, and what you choose to publish about me for malicious intent, without my permission.
You are a sick person and this isn’t the first time that fact has been on display.
Anyway, I have better things to do than engage with a perverted Greens’ supporter. No wonder they languish on 10% of the vote, election after election.
Mr Bowe,
Okay. 🙂
I thought it covered unwanted publicising of personal information without permission.
I see that our terrible Tories have their cigarette lighters out for Scotty on the assumption that Australians will back fat fuck Morrison over a petite froggy ‘cause he’s one of us.
Perhaps if this was 2018 you guys might be right. Before Hawaiian vacations during black summer, before space invader faux empathy for Carbargo woman, before backgrounding Brittany Higgins, before Scotty forgot to buy the Pfizer …
The problem is I think, the mob have worked ScoMo out … and they don’t like what they have discovered. Not one little bit.
In that context, the Macron spat simply confirms something they have come to think. I’d say Albo and Labor are on very safe grounds over this one. I’d say that the ALP’s focus groups will be singing with one voice about all of this, for the same reason as Nikki Sava outlined in her article today.
Oh dear.
Rumours are that Senator Rex Patrick is considering running for Grey, a safe Liberal seat based on his home town of Whyalla.
https://twitter.com/Senator_Patrick/status/1455282244709355530
Now THAT would be interesting, could easily take away one Lib and add an extra to the crossbench. Could even be Speaker?
Anyway, back to the more calming pursuit of sewing and listening to music. 🙂
Bob Hawke was from a different time. Standards change. Society changes. Think how many things there are that pollies get away with today but would be pilloried for in the 1900s or 1950s or 1980.