Federal election guide

Introducing the Poll Bludger’s guide to the (presumably) 2022 federal election.

The Poll Bludger’s guide to what I hope it is now safe to assume will be the 2022 federal election is open for business. There remain many gaps to fill owing to yet-to-be-declared candidates, and a Senate guide is still a work in progress (by which I mean I haven’t started it yet), but it remains a pretty substantial piece of work as is. If you find it stimulating or useful, you can show your appreciation by throwing some pennies into the collection jar, featured at the top of the site in the shape of the “become a supporter” button.

A bright and colourful front page serves as an entry point to the 151 individual electorate pages, each featuring a write-up based on detail I have accumulated since I first did one of these things way back in 2004, adding up to around 75,000 words all told. These are complemented by a range of charts and tables detailing past election results and demographic indicators, the latter compiled from 2016 census data to reflect the current boundaries (with acknowledgement due to Antony Green’s post-redistribution margin estimates), together with interactive maps showing booth results from the last election, which can be seen in detail by clicking on the booth icons.

Also featured is an overview page that includes, among other things, a summary of the national polling situation that I hope I remember to update nearer the big day. In the likely absence of any new polling this week, and for the sake of something substantial to hang this post off, I hereby repaste this section in full:

The most striking feature of state-level polling over the past term has been a seismic shift to Labor in Western Australia, where the party has not recorded a majority of the two-party vote at a federal election since 1987. This seems intuitively satisfying given the historical scale of the McGowan government’s win at the state election in March, winning 53 of 59 seats in the state’s lower house with a record-shattering two-party vote of 69.7%. At a bare minimum, Labor would seem a very strong chance of gaining the seat of Swan, which has a retiring Liberal member on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Labor should also be at least competitive in Hasluck, with a Liberal margin of 5.9%, and Pearce, where the redistribution has cut the beleaguered Christian Porter’s margin from 7.5% to 5.2%.

In Victoria, the Coalition performed relatively well during the state’s first COVID-19 crisis in mid-2020, but declined sharply as a new outbreak took hold in New South Wales and spread across the border in mid-2021, as Labor appeared to gain traction with its claim that Scott Morrison had acted as the “Prime Minister of New South Wales”. However, the only highly marginal Liberal seat in Victoria is Chisholm in Melbourne’s inner east, a seat notable for its Chinese population. Other possibilities for Labor include neighbouring Higgins (margin 3.7%), an historically blue-ribbon seat with an increasingly green-left complexion; Casey on Melbourne’s eastern fringe (4.6%), where Labor will be boosted with the retirement of Liberal incumbent Tony Smith; and the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin (4.7%), an historically tough nut for Labor.

Conversely, the damage to the Coalition from the mid-2021 outbreak appeared relatively mild in New South Wales itself, to the extent that the Coalition is hopeful of gain to redress any losses elsewhere. One such calculation is that Labor owed its wins in Eden-Monaro in 2016 and 2019 to the now-departed Mike Kelly, and its threadbare winning margin in July 2020 to the difficulty governments typically face at by-elections. Another is that its loss of neighbouring Gilmore in 2019 reflected a problematic preselection process, and that it will now return to the fold. With the retirement of Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon, the Nationals could enjoy a further boost in Hunter (margin 3.0%), whose coal-mining communities savaged Labor in 2019. Labor also has tight margins in Macquarie on Sydney’s western fringe (0.2%), the Central Coast seat of Dobell (1.5%) and the western Sydney seat of Greenway (2.8%), whereas the Coalition’s most marginal seat is Reid in Sydney’s inner west on a margin of 3.2%.

Queensland has been the crucible of Australian federal elections over the past two decades, but the state’s remarkable result in 2019 left the Coalition with imposing margins in most of the state’s traditional marginal seats without quite shaking Labor loose in its strongholds. Labor’s polling in the state surged in the wake of the re-election of Annastacia Palszczuk’s state government in October 2020, though it subsequently moved back in line with the national trend. Labor’s highest hopes are reportedly for the far north Queensland seat of Leichhardt, held by veteran Liberal National Party member Warren Entsch on a margin of 4.2%, which resisted the surge to the Coalition across regional Queensland in 2019. The most marginal LNP seat is Longman on Brisbane’s northern fringe, at 3.3%. Peter Dutton’s northern Brisbane seat of Dickson is the third most marginal at 4.6%.

The sole battlefield in South Australia is likely to be Boothby, a southern Adelaide seat in which long-held Labor hopes have never quite been realised. It will be vacated with the retirement of two-term Liberal member Nicolle Flint, who retained it in 2019 by 1.4%. Greater attention is likely to focus on Tasmania, where the three seats of the state’s centre and north have see-sawed over recent decades. Labor will naturally hope to gain Bass, with its Liberal margin of 0.4% and record of changing hands at eight of the last ten elections, and to a lesser extent neighbouring Braddon, which the Liberals gained in 2019 with a 3.1% margin. However, the Liberals hope to succeed in Lyons where they failed in 2019 after disendorsing their candidate mid-campaign. Labor seems likely to maintain its lock on the five territory seats, although the retirement of veteran Warren Snowdon suggests the Northern Territory seat of Lingiari is less secure than its 5.5% margin suggests.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,202 comments on “Federal election guide”

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  1. Reminds me of Andrew Bolt’s Polemic against Finding Nemo:

    Having broken all sorts of US records, Finding Nemo is making waves
    here. But is this charming cartoon as innocent as it seems?

    THERE’S something a little fishy about Finding Nemo, and I don’t mean
    the clownfish hero with the gammy fin.

    I’m talking instead about the too-easy, no-pain, nature-worshipping
    New Age-ism being pushed by this hit animation.

  3. It actually means that internal polling, at some point before Gillard got rolled, under the worse case scenario, would have been left with 30 seats.

    If Gillard had contested the election, and Rudd and his Cardinals stopped undermining during the campaign at least, it is just as likely that the loss would have been comparable to that of Rudd’s (potentially with a different distribution).

    Rudd does not deserve to be awarded with saving seats without immediate reminder that he more than anyone undermined that government.

    Where’s your evidence it’s worse case scenario? In fact the review would have used numbers that would have been pretty conservative to not disparage Julia Gillard. I know from a source it was even going to be much worse.

    The Gillard government consistently polled badly and was bordering in the late 20’s in the primary vote. If you can point to a potential recovery I would be glad to see it. There was leaking but it was because the government was going to be annihilated. There is no way Gillard could have pegged back as much as Rudd did. Rudd was able to save six seats in Queensland that for sure yo be gone if they had gone with Gillard.

    Rudd was only given three months which in realty was never going to be enough time. The truth is Gillard polling on the original challenge was soft as butter. When a leak came out during the 2010 federal campaign the Labor party lost 8 points in its vote. A leak like that should cause maybe 1 or 2 points lost. But for a leak to lose 8 points suggests the original polling used to challenge Rudd was pretty flakey.

  5. Maybe the former Labor Member for Perth, Tim Hammond, will step up to the plate?

    I’m not fussy, C@t. 🙂

    The MSM’s obsession with “gotchas” and “click-bait” revenue has distracted them from what their job as the fourth estate is supposed to entail.

  6. Alan Jones seems to have enjoyed what we could now describe as a sort of “Trumpian” immunity. I and many others thought that the “Cash for Comment: affair would have ended his journalistic and broadcasting career: https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/nov/15/4

    He sailed right through with hardly a blip, a scandal which would normally have destroyed the career of someone purporting to be a serious journalist and a major player in national affairs. John Laws sailed through too, but as he said himself, he’s just an entertainer. Before and since, there have been any number of scandals and instances where he was proven to be making stuff up or copying. Once he quoted a character in a novel as an expert on the world oil market.

    As with Trump, it has something to do with the loyalty and steadfastness of his followers. They won’t hear a word against him. If they do happen to hear, they either won’t believe it or they won’t care.

    We will find out in coming weeks and months whether Scott Morrison also enjoys “Trumpian immunity”. I fear he might, especially with most of the media in his corner.

  7. And of course an entire thread could be devoted to the Conservative reaction to the teletubbies. There is a diverse range of conspiracy theories to choose from.

  11. Luke Henriques-Gomes
    @lukehgomes
    “Senior Victorian Liberals have confirmed that Mr Frydenberg is leading a group of federal Coalition MPs, including Michael Sukkar, Greg Hunt and Alan Tudge, backing Mr Smith in defiance of … Matthew Guy’s insistence he has no future in state politics.”

    Says so much…

  13. I repeat: is it time for Labor to start making its case, or should they hold the line and wait, even until next year?

    Myself, I think they should wait. Focus grouping and polling (as told by Niki Savva) suggests there are a lot of people who want to vote Morrison out. All Labor will do is give its enemies ample time to scare these would-be voters back to the “safe choice.”

  21. Boerwar at 4:34 pm

    Mavis
    Murdoch is a commie.

    Ah, so you are in on the secret as well. The signs were there early. Not for nothing did ol’ man Kieth set a private detective on to young Rupert after Pater Murdoch became concerned over Rupe’s leftist tendencies. 😆
    Rupe’s might even have had a few ‘lefty’ bones in his body back then. One of his earliest crusades was for an Aboriginal guy sentenced to death for the murder of a young girl. Definitely not a ‘fashionable’ thing to do at the time. A successful campaign in the end so it ended well. Rupes these days would be pushing for ‘life means life’ sentence or the death penalty these days.

  25. So, now, on a serious note, what’s the upshot of Morrison’s claim of AFP involvement in, nay orchestration of, the Cleo rescue?

    Are they being nominated for police bravery awards?

    Perhaps they’ll seek payment of the $1,000,000 State Government reward offered?

    It would be a shame for such valour to go unrecognised.

  26. Kylie Tink, Independent candidate, says she is “fiscally conservative, socially progressive”. This seems to be very typical of many independents who end up supporting the LNP when voting. Not very radical really.

  27. Just back from a Labor COP26 Zoom from Glasgow. They are just waiting for COP to end before they begin announcing their CC policies. 🙂

  28. Rex Douglas @ #1817 Thursday, November 4th, 2021 – 6:15 pm

    Luke Henriques-Gomes
    @lukehgomes
    “Senior Victorian Liberals have confirmed that Mr Frydenberg is leading a group of federal Coalition MPs, including Michael Sukkar, Greg Hunt and Alan Tudge, backing Mr Smith in defiance of … Matthew Guy’s insistence he has no future in state politics.”

    Says so much…

    They are bullies. That’s what it says. As well as elitists who think there is one law, no law, for them and another for everyone else.

  29. Angus puts those renewables bludgers in their place:

    Subsidies for green energy ‘not endless’

    Energy Minister Angus Taylor has warned the renewables industry that it won’t be receiving ‘endless subsidies for the next century’.
    By JACQUELIN MAGNAY, ANGELICA SNOWDEN
    (Murdoch’s Oz)

  32. Energy Minister Angus Taylor has warned the renewables industry that it won’t be receiving ‘endless subsidies for the next century’.

    On the other hand coal and gas will if Angus has anything to do with it…

  33. NSW Electoral Commissioner: No NSW by-elections are possible until mid-February due to logistical constraints (and inadequate funding for the Commission).

    The New South Wales electoral commissioner has warned funding constraints may delay a host of byelections to replace outgoing MPs, including former premier Gladys Berejiklian, until mid-February, setting up a potential clash with the federal election campaign.

    In an extraordinary budget estimates hearing on Thursday, John Schmidt, head of the NSW electoral commission, launched a blistering attack on the government’s “piecemeal funding” of the authority, claiming it can’t meet cybersecurity standards for elections in the state.

    Schmidt also said the commission would not be able to hold the five byelections triggered by the resignation of Berejiklian until next year, which means they may clash with a federal vote which is due by May.

    “My advice at the moment is it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February,” Schmidt told the hearing.

    “My systems can’t handle a full local government election and state byelections at the same time, that’s just a statement of fact. That shouldn’t be the case [but] it’s because they are legacy systems … some of the systems are more than 10 years old.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/04/nsw-elections-at-risk-from-cyber-attacks-due-to-lack-of-funding-commissioner-says

  34. ” Senior Victorian Liberals have confirmed that Mr Frydenberg is leading a group of federal Coalition MPs, including Michael Sukkar, Greg Hunt and Alan Tudge, backing Mr Smith”

    After all, the rules about having to be sober while driving only apply to ordinary people…

  36. Firstly, I must declare a conflict of interestof sorts, some family members own fruit orchards and although I gain no money from them I do get heaps of the worlds best cherries every year.
    This ruling by Fair Work is a bit of a double edged sword IMO. I welcome it as it does bring justice to the pickers but it will have its victims, and they will be pickers.
    Family Orchard p/l pre Covid usually employed about 80 to 100 pickers, mostly seasoned professionals who started at about 6.00am and worked as long as the management could handle their fruit each day. The Backpackers in the main were not professionals, but often were keen amateurs who would startwhen they felt up to it and stop when it was too hot for them (picking cherries means you are mostly outside the tree looking in and not in the shade.) The attraction for the Backpackers at Family Orchard p/l is that they were able to pitch their tents / vans / whatever free of charge for the duration of the picking and even longer if they wanted. Provided free of charge was electricity, water and a toilet/ablutions block plus a lockup area for valuables if off on the town at night. Some stayed for a month or so until work was obtained elsewhere. Alternative accom is a council caravan park at about $30 per day.
    That wont be the case anymore. The amateur pickers wont be allowed to pick or stay. If they cant reliably pick more than $25 worth of cherries each hour as required rather than as they feel they will have to be sent on their way. My family wont feel any pain from this arrangement, they have a large pool of professional pickers to choose from who will readily pick over the $25 mark day in and day out. The backpackers will lose an opportunity to earn some cash by hard work and have a good time at the same time.
    I’m not sure if their is a good outcome available from this, its hard to see.

  39. Re Citizen @7:15

    … it’s because they are legacy systems … some of the systems are more than 10 years old.

    Only 10? Looxury…

  40. “My wife says that she had no idea that I was about to announce that I was leaving her for another woman, but look at this text she sent me: ‘Can I expect you home for dinner?’! That’s clear evidence that she knew our relationship was in tatters! See, this proves that I’m not lying when I say that I made it clear that I wasn’t going to stick with my wedding vows, and when my wife calls me untrustworthy, I think that men everywhere should be offended.”

    https://theaimn.com/seeking-the-leaking/

  45. Steelydan @ Thursday, November 4, 2021 at 7:43 pm

    Such an even-handed opinion piece by John Roskam there. Masterful insight!

    The first sentence sets the scene: “The only mistake Scott Morrison has made in the way he’s handled the French submarine contract is that he should have cancelled it sooner.”

    I think Roskam is reading the situation perfectly. Don’t you? 🙂

  46. It’s not a diplomatic spat, it’s a battle of facts. You back the Australian when all else is equal; you don’t do it to the point of dishonesty when the Australian is clearly in the wrong.

    Counting on people to be blatantly counter-factual may work in the US. Won’t fly here though. Not yet, anyways.

  47. A young lady dear to me is a student nurse. She is doing prac work at a privately owned old persons home. It would appear that the horror stories revealed at the Royal Commission continue. What is happening to our country?

  50. The ALP’s support for Emmanuel Macron against Scott Morrison forgets that in a diplomatic spat between two national leaders, the public will probably back the Australian

    Morrison is a liar, a boofhead, a hypocrite, totally unprincipled and a bully, but apparently he’s our liar, boofhead, hypocrite and bully…so it’s all OK? Well, not by me anyway, not that that matters much I suppose.

    Macron is just telling us what we already knew, at least about the lying part. When the shoe was on the other foot, the Coalition backed Mahathir* over Keating in the “recalcitrant” spat; and anyone against Julia Gillard.

    * Mahathir is a year older than the Queen and stll going strong

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