The Age/Herald has published its latest monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, with better results for Labor than the last two: the Coalition is down two to 37%, Labor is up three to 34%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down one to 3%. This comes out at roughly 51-49 in favour of Labor on 2019 election preferences. The breakdowns provided for the three largest states have it at about 50-50 in New South Wales and Queensland and 52-48 to Labor in Victoria. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings show a combined very good and good result of 47% (down two) and a combined poor and very poor result of 43% (down two), while Anthony Albanese is respectively on 30% (down one) and 41% (down five). Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 44-26, compared with 45-26 last time.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes approval ratings for the state Premiers, based on small sub-samples from the relevant states – although these have been juiced up in this survey for Western Australia and South Australia. This provides the first numbers first published for Dominic Perrottet, at 47% approval and 28% disapproval from a sample of 352. Daniel Andrews is at 52% approval and 40% disapproval from a sample of 275; Annastacia Palaszczuk is at 66% approval and 27% disapproval from a sample of 217; Mark McGowan is at 82% approval and 13% disapproval from a sample of 441; and Steven Marshall is at 61% approval and 27% disapproval from a sample of 443.
The regular question on the federal government’s handling of COVID-19 records one-point increases in both the good and poor ratings, to 46% and 31% respectively. The good ratings for the state governments are 57% for New South Wales (up two), 43% for Victoria (down three), 59% for Queensland (down nine), 78% for Western Australia (down two) and 66% for South Australia (down one), from the same sample sizes as noted in the previous paragraph. The poll also records what is no doubt a pandemic-induced slump in the view that immigration is too high, at 37% compared with 56% in January 2019, although too low is only up from 12% to 16%. There are further questions on immigration, as well as climate policy, in the full release. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1781.
Also out recently are two localised polls from Redbridge Group, one targeting the Perth seat of Swan, which the Liberals hold on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Consistent with other polling showing a swing to Labor approaching 10% in the state, the poll has Labor on 43% (33.2% in 2019), Liberal on 32% (44.7%), the Greens on 10% (12.3%), the United Australia Party on 6% (1.8%) and “a local independent” on 9%, if responses to a forced-response follow-up for the undecided are included. A very great deal of further detail from the poll is available in the full release, including state voting intention results that suggests Mark McGowan’s government is at least as popular now as when it annihiliated the opposition in March. The poll was conducted by automoted phone polling from October 9 to 12 from a sample of 814.
The other Redbridge poll targeted the three Sydney electorates of Banks, Lindsay and Macquarie, and it has the striking finding that the United Australia Party is on 19%, with Liberal on 32%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 9%. The pollster reports this as converting to 53-47 to Labor, though I am unclear as to how this was determined as there does not appear to be a full release of results as there is with the Swan poll. The combined result in these seats at the 2019 election was Liberal 47.3%, Labor 36.8%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 3.1%, with the Liberals on 53.7% and Labor on 46.3% two-party preferred.
The other big electoral story of the hour was yesterday’s revelation that the federal government will shortly introduce a voter identification bill to parliament, which has naturally caused the spectre of Republican-style voter suppression to be invoked. However, the bill seems to follow the model followed by the Newman government in Queensland at the 2015 election, which was promptly repealed by the new Labor government, and I have always been of the heretical view that this did little harm and perhaps even a degree of good with respect to public confidence.
According to The Guardian, acceptable forms of identification will include “passports, drivers licences, proof of age cards, and student cards, as well as government-issued documents including Medicare and pensioners cards, and recent documents from financial institutions and utility companies”. Furthermore, those without identification will still be able to cast a declaration vote, to be admitted to the count once it is established that the voter’s name has not already been marked off. Nonetheless, Antony Green notes that the relative ease with which this was administered in Queensland was aided by its lack of an upper house, whereas it is likely to mean delays in counting when two ballot papers are involved.
Both Labor and the Greens immediately announced their opposition to the bill. One Nation, however, will presumably be on board, having earlier introduced voter identification legislation of their own in response to delusions endemic on their end of the ideological spectrum. That means the government will need to win over one or more of Jacqui Lambie, Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff.
BB
I’ve been to a lot of nice beaches.. I’m looking forward to it.
The Hume Hwy from Sydney to Melbourne is the most boring trip inAustralia, even the Nullabor is more interesting. But it is efficient. Go via the princes hwy, very scenic and a better use of your time.
To Adelaide there are two routes, unfortunately both utilise the Hay Plain, which always brings to my mind “Such is Life” by Tom Collins (Furphy).
Cut Snake says:
Thursday, October 28, 2021 at 9:43 pm
The Hume Hwy from Sydney to Melbourne
______________
I recall stopping at many places on that route in my early 20s. In every town I became the object of interest due to my black leather jacket, sunglasses and general movie star demeanor. I won’t use the word Deliverance…
Don Farrell makes a good point about Morrison’s Voter ID laws. They will create long lines at the polling place as each person’s ID is checked before they can vote.
There is probably some evidence out there somewhere that points to the type of person that rolls up at 5 minutes to 6 to vote, and who they vote for. Would they be disenfranchised if they are in line before 6 but unable to get through the doors to cast their vote? As opposed to the situation now where they usually have enough time to duck in to cast their ballot.
Macron certainly doesn’t beat around the bush. I reckon it was a one sided conversation, with SfM forced to listen to Macron berating him.
Cud Chewer @ #972 Thursday, October 28th, 2021 – 8:54 pm
I know someone who was involved in putting it there.
The Liberals wouldn’t change voting laws unless they saw an advantage…
My son is thinking about buying this block of land on the Hawkesbury in Spencer:
rhwombat
“I know someone who was involved in putting it there.”
I’d love to know the story and have to wonder how long it lasted?
Itzadream, not Wagga, that’s Dubbo Showground.
C@t
“My son is thinking about buying this block of land on the Hawkesbury in Spencer:”
Is that a structure within that rectangle, or just a drawing mistake?
My thoughts? Great if you want a hideaway. Its gotta be about 50 minutes drive to Gosford.
Investment?
One other thought. You’d have to ask a geotech about a) the cost of building and b) the risk of landslip/rocks.
Steve777
“The Liberals wouldn’t change voting laws unless they saw an advantage…”
Is it a quid pro quo with One Nation? Pauline Hanson was pushing these voter ID laws pretty hard.
Cut Snake I can’t agree about the Hume between Albury and Jugiong , dog’s own country.
Already got a building on it, that’s the beauty of it:
You could say it’s basic. 🙂
You have to start somewhere. 😀
“Macron certainly doesn’t beat around the bush. I reckon it was a one sided conversation, with SfM forced to listen to Macron berating him.”
An Albanese government agreeing (as in begging) to build the first flight of 3-4 Attack class subs, plus inviting France to propose an option for 6-8 SSNs would ease a lot of tensions. It would also ease the capability gap issue and introduce a competitive cost element into the SSN evaluation process.
Just saying.
Looks to be a beautiful property C@t. Replacing those structures with some sort of ‘tiny house’ on stilts wouldn’t undermine the obvious biodiversity of the land either. …
Spencer is relatively isolated, less than 50 km from the Sydney CBD as the crow flies but over 100 km to drive.
Gladys would have been 45 in 2015, is it believable when Mcguire said they were talking about having babies?
Regarding voter ID, unless they were is an online database for checking ID and removing a voter from the list once they have voted, I don’t see how it will prevent even one case of voting twice. What’s to stop someone going to another polling place, just like they do now. Can’t see them getting any IT system working before the next election.
It would prevent some young voters though eg ones who’ve have just turned 18, left school and don’t have a driver’s licence 🙁 Or new citizens, other’s waiting on ID etc
And what about folks in nursing homes? Postal votes?
Regarding that dwelling, since there is already one there does it mean planning permission for improvements is easier?
Dogs Breakfast. Each to his own. I have plenty of rellos around Jugiong and up thru Murrumburrah, Boorowa etc but for me it was along the Lachlan, Overflow country.
I think the euphemism is “rugged beauty” but the scenic wonnders of the western Lachlan (Kalaru in Wiradjuri) are a hard sell.
Scotty would have got a postcard from ol’ Vlad Putin about now saying Spasibo Tovarishch .Thank you comrade indeed. Scotty scores a double export shot to the foot , sucking up to Trump by being mouthy with China. America steps in and basically supplies China with the goods they stopped getting from us first time around. It’s what mates are for eh ? Now it’s landing Bad Vlad train loads of Rubles.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/china-is-ramping-up-coal-imports-from-russia-but-not-australia.html
Mongolia would also send their thanks to SfM
https://thediplomat.com/2021/10/can-russia-and-mongolia-replace-australias-coal-supply-to-china/
Have been watching a 46 minute docco on YouTube.
It has been interrupted every 5 minutes with an ad… every single one of them for a sports betting agency.
Most are 15 seconds, with no option to cancel early and go back to the show you’re watching.
Only betting agencies, Apple, Mattell (Barbie dolls) and occasionally supermarket chains have the resources to have their full ads played, forcing you to watch right through them (oh, and how could I forget Clive Palmer?)
These companies obviously have a lot of money, but what possessed them to think that a 20-something year old male, interested only in betting, booze and barmaids, would be watching a docco on the 2nd World War in the Meditterranean (not a horse, a football or a foxy lady to be seen) at 10pm on a workday? It can’t be the famous Google Algorithm, can it?
And as for depicting 7 year old girls literally squealing about Leopard Stripe Barbie, at 1am in a science docco as often as not, I am at a complete loss.
“It looks like the first interest rate rise for years may come on his watch, BEFORE the election:”
The effect will be interesting, and for some people delayed. Lots of people have gone fixed rate on their mortgages in the last 12 months. apparently 4 years is common. I got 3yrs/2.09% on most of my mortgage (3yr fixed rates actually went down a touch after that ) am still overpaying so have a buffer and i’m not really worried short term. Be interesting to see where the panic happens of rates got up. 🙂
Lovely spot C@t. 🙂
imacca at 10:37 pm
With ridiculous house price rises and low low low interest rates the only thing making them “affordable” there will a a great din of clacking clackers across the land when interest rates start sneaking up. Interesting times for both the government and new to newish home loan peeps.
Bob Brown and Bandt can do a convoy to Russia now.
Bushfire Bill @ #1024 Thursday, October 28th, 2021 – 9:36 pm
I understand that it is the content provider that specifies if the ads are skippable or not.
Vogon Poet
I hope they remember to pack their mittens and warm socks .
Latest from Juice Media on COP26 is very good. 🙂
https://www.thejuicemedia.com/
C@t @10:14
Wow.. designer kitchen and all! 🙂
That or this one in Glenworth Valley:
Repayments at 2.09% Fixed for 2 years, over 30 years, come in ~$500/month. Which is doable.
Cud Chewer @ #1032 Thursday, October 28th, 2021 – 11:00 pm
Did you notice the toilet? 😀
imacca,
Seems as though 2 years Fixed is the new time frame.
Loris,
The only example of multiple voting that an expert on the radio today could come up with was a little old lady with dementia who kept coming back to the polling place to vote, 5 times!
https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-33.4581347,151.1471296,3a,28.2y,43.21h,86.32t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sGb397RgBOUtp2oxy5-LDmw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DGb397RgBOUtp2oxy5-LDmw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D230.87914%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192?hl=en-GB
lol 🙂
Re Cut Snake at 10.34 pm
I think the Wiradjuri name for the western Lachlan is Kalara. See this note about an exhibition of the work of the Aboriginal poet and artist Kevin Gilbert at:
https://mamalbury.com.au/see-and-do/exhibitions/past-exhibitions/kevin-gilbert-a-message-to-be-heard
“The youngest of eight children, Gilbert was born on the banks of Kalara (Lachlan) River near Condobolin in Wiradjuri Nation.”
Gilbert’s youngest daughter is Kalara, named after his great grandma, who was a survivor of the massacre at Kiacatoo, recorded in Gilbert’s poem of that name. The poem is printed in his anthology Inside Black Australia (pp 189-90) and also in his book on Aboriginal Sovereignty (pp 22-23) at:
http://caid.ca/AboSov1987.pdf
The word Kiacatoo refers to the riverland in that region. In the poem Gilbert uses the colonial word Lachlan in the first line, then names the place of the massacre as Kiacatoo.
There is mention of Kiacatoo (at p 33) in an archaeological article at: https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au/bitstream/handle/10072/66015/100300_1.pdf;sequence=1
The massacre at Kiacatoo was similar to the Pinjarra massacre, which occurred 187 years ago today.
Information on the Pinjarra massacre is at: https://bindjarebpark.com.au/pinjarra-massacre-site/
See also: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-26/the-scars-of-the-pinjarra-massacre-still-linger-185-years-on/11639642
Astoundingly, WA Main Roads bureaucrats want to use the notorious s 18 of the Aboriginal Heritage Act to clear part of the Pinjarra massacre site for a truck by-pass. See:
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/like-digging-up-someone-s-grave-angst-at-plans-to-build-road-through-wa-aboriginal-massacre-site-20210415-p57jmq.html
C@t
“The only example of multiple voting that an expert on the radio today could come up with was a little old lady with dementia who kept coming back to the polling place to vote, 5 times!”
Dementia? Yeah, right. That was Bronwyn Bishop, back in 1994. She was desperate to win the seat of Mackellar!
😉
😆 😆 😆
Cud Chewer @ #1037 Thursday, October 28th, 2021 – 11:09 pm
Everyone wants to be the centre of the universe these days! 😀
She must have had dementia, if she kept going back to the same polling booth and not a nearby one 😛
Loris @ #1042 Thursday, October 28th, 2021 – 11:28 pm
We have one around here that is located within the grounds of a Retirement Village. Could have been one of those.
I’m not at all concerned about the LNP voter ID laws, my view is that it was the low information, low engagement crowd, most likely to be disenfranchised by the laws, that are most susceptible to the fundamentally dishonest LNP campaign.
In safe ALP seats it is not going to disenfranchise enough voters to change the result, in marginal mortgage belt seats it is at least as likely if not more likely to disenfranchise LNP voters.
Cut Snake @ #1002 Thursday, October 28th, 2021 – 6:43 pm
Melbourne to Sydney, I’d recommend going via the Great Alpine Way.
Truly spectacular.
Have thoroughly enjoyed tonight’s commentary.
Entertaining , fun , supportive and informative.
PB at its absolute best!!
KayJay would have loved it.
Cheers to you all!
Canberra in the 1920s:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfyfQD-p4B8
It’s a crying shame that the NFSA is underfunded, though over a period of four years it will receive $5.5m to upscale its digitisation capabilities, much of it in bad nick.
[‘Vaccine rollout:
NSW
86.5% fully vaccinated; 93.4% first dose
National
75.5% fully vaccinated; 87.6% first dose
Of the estimated population of 16.’] – SMH
The anger at this shit government is palpable. I suspect the massive flop of a net zero plan after weeks and weeks of speculation and buildup has made things even worse for voters who care about this issue. (Watching Labor MPs speak in parliament, they say it’s the number one issue that voters are raising with them at the moment)
It’s Labor’s election to lose. All they need to do is cobble together a good climate policy and put some more batteries in Albo to make him speak with a bit more conviction, and they’ll be home and hosed.
Unfortunately, those two relatively easy tasks may prove very difficult. I still think Albo can get us across the line – Bill was less popular and he almost won against the fresh face Scotty.
I really don’t know where they’re headed on climate policy. A big, expensive, comprehensive, honest plan for the transition would be welcomed by me, but could that scare a lot of voters?
Most importantly, FEDERAL ICAC NOW. Labor must hammer this point constantly. Morrison is backed into a corner and can’t create a remotely credible model that will pass the Senate. He can’t spin his way out of the issue of corruption.
Mundo, I genuinely don’t understand what purpose it serves to chime in with pessimistic comments which are rarely explained or elaborated upon.
From 3 years ago
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/09/nsw-liberals-set-to-lose-wagga-wagga-byelection-on-swing-of-29