Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Redbridge Group and voter ID laws

Three or four new sets of polling numbers, plus a late-term move by the government to grab the hot potato of voter identification.

The Age/Herald has published its latest monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, with better results for Labor than the last two: the Coalition is down two to 37%, Labor is up three to 34%, the Greens are up one to 11% and One Nation is down one to 3%. This comes out at roughly 51-49 in favour of Labor on 2019 election preferences. The breakdowns provided for the three largest states have it at about 50-50 in New South Wales and Queensland and 52-48 to Labor in Victoria. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings show a combined very good and good result of 47% (down two) and a combined poor and very poor result of 43% (down two), while Anthony Albanese is respectively on 30% (down one) and 41% (down five). Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is little changed at 44-26, compared with 45-26 last time.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly Essential Research poll, which includes approval ratings for the state Premiers, based on small sub-samples from the relevant states – although these have been juiced up in this survey for Western Australia and South Australia. This provides the first numbers first published for Dominic Perrottet, at 47% approval and 28% disapproval from a sample of 352. Daniel Andrews is at 52% approval and 40% disapproval from a sample of 275; Annastacia Palaszczuk is at 66% approval and 27% disapproval from a sample of 217; Mark McGowan is at 82% approval and 13% disapproval from a sample of 441; and Steven Marshall is at 61% approval and 27% disapproval from a sample of 443.

The regular question on the federal government’s handling of COVID-19 records one-point increases in both the good and poor ratings, to 46% and 31% respectively. The good ratings for the state governments are 57% for New South Wales (up two), 43% for Victoria (down three), 59% for Queensland (down nine), 78% for Western Australia (down two) and 66% for South Australia (down one), from the same sample sizes as noted in the previous paragraph. The poll also records what is no doubt a pandemic-induced slump in the view that immigration is too high, at 37% compared with 56% in January 2019, although too low is only up from 12% to 16%. There are further questions on immigration, as well as climate policy, in the full release. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1781.

Also out recently are two localised polls from Redbridge Group, one targeting the Perth seat of Swan, which the Liberals hold on a post-redistribution margin of 3.2%. Consistent with other polling showing a swing to Labor approaching 10% in the state, the poll has Labor on 43% (33.2% in 2019), Liberal on 32% (44.7%), the Greens on 10% (12.3%), the United Australia Party on 6% (1.8%) and “a local independent” on 9%, if responses to a forced-response follow-up for the undecided are included. A very great deal of further detail from the poll is available in the full release, including state voting intention results that suggests Mark McGowan’s government is at least as popular now as when it annihiliated the opposition in March. The poll was conducted by automoted phone polling from October 9 to 12 from a sample of 814.

The other Redbridge poll targeted the three Sydney electorates of Banks, Lindsay and Macquarie, and it has the striking finding that the United Australia Party is on 19%, with Liberal on 32%, Labor on 31% and the Greens on 9%. The pollster reports this as converting to 53-47 to Labor, though I am unclear as to how this was determined as there does not appear to be a full release of results as there is with the Swan poll. The combined result in these seats at the 2019 election was Liberal 47.3%, Labor 36.8%, Greens 6.6% and United Australia Party 3.1%, with the Liberals on 53.7% and Labor on 46.3% two-party preferred.

The other big electoral story of the hour was yesterday’s revelation that the federal government will shortly introduce a voter identification bill to parliament, which has naturally caused the spectre of Republican-style voter suppression to be invoked. However, the bill seems to follow the model followed by the Newman government in Queensland at the 2015 election, which was promptly repealed by the new Labor government, and I have always been of the heretical view that this did little harm and perhaps even a degree of good with respect to public confidence.

According to The Guardian, acceptable forms of identification will include “passports, drivers licences, proof of age cards, and student cards, as well as government-issued documents including Medicare and pensioners cards, and recent documents from financial institutions and utility companies”. Furthermore, those without identification will still be able to cast a declaration vote, to be admitted to the count once it is established that the voter’s name has not already been marked off. Nonetheless, Antony Green notes that the relative ease with which this was administered in Queensland was aided by its lack of an upper house, whereas it is likely to mean delays in counting when two ballot papers are involved.

Both Labor and the Greens immediately announced their opposition to the bill. One Nation, however, will presumably be on board, having earlier introduced voter identification legislation of their own in response to delusions endemic on their end of the ideological spectrum. That means the government will need to win over one or more of Jacqui Lambie, Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,057 comments on “Resolve Strategic, Essential Research, Redbridge Group and voter ID laws”

Comments Page 20 of 22
1 … 19 20 21 22

  2. Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong

    Now that Scott Morrison has gone overseas, Barnaby Joyce is running the government.

    So it’s just like when Mr Morrison is here.

  4. Bugger, GG.
    Some of the least liked Australian cricketers are from…..

    And not necessarily my least liked. I have on occasion had beers with two of them.

  6. BB

    I’m seriously considering walking up there, via the beach.

    Cuddy, assuming you’re serious, you’d presumably be walking from somewhere near Mungo Brush, north along Submarine Beach to Yagons National Parks campsite, thence past Lighthouse Beach and the two Seal Rocks beaches (don’t try navigating the coastline between Seal Rocks and Cellito, it’s treacherous).

    At Cellito, give me a call, as we live quite nearby. Cheap red wine and a lumpy bed guaranteed!

    From there you’d proceed to Bluey’s Beach, thence to Boomerang, then Elizabeth and Shelly, finally ending up walking Seven Mile Beach up to Cape Hawke, South of Forster. A couple of Forster beaches might divert your attention – One Mile and Forster Main – then it’s across the Tuncurry Brudge and onto Tuncurry Beach.

    I have only one question: “Why?”

  7. https://www.watoday.com.au/national/michael-gudinski-died-of-mixed-drug-use-20211028-p59420.html

    Music promoter Michael Gudinski died of mixed drug use, with 12 drugs including cocaine, oxycodone and morphine found in his system.
    Court documents released by the Supreme Court of Victoria on Thursday said the drugs were found in a man with existing conditions of heart disease, cirrhosis and recent vertebral fractures.

    I’m not sure if the drug use was related to the fractures.

  8. The Queen went to Wagga Wagga in ’54. We were bused in from Albury, in winter school uniforms, in March! They did a flood rescue thingy with a helicopter (very exciting) hauling some waving frantic off a shed in the middle of the oval.

    And then there was … the sheep

  9. But here is some trivia. There would have been times over a year or two when Mark Taylor and Scott Morrison could be found in the same UNSW building. No, it is unlikely to have been in the unibar.

  13. ‘…in fact a “shark-proof” kiddies swimming area that has a sign up saying “WARNING: Sharks may swim in this pool”’

    A picture of the pool and sign would make a great meme.

    Random aside – I recall some years back there was a report of a lady who encountered a shark when taking her morning swim in an ocean pool near Cronulla (Sydney). She picked it up, chucked it over the side into the ocean, then continued her laps.

  15. Bushfire Bill & Cud Chewer

    Tuncurry also has a fine Indian restaurant.

    Snappy, I’ve never seen it open, but have been often intrigued. Alas I live half-an-hour’s drive south of Tuncurry, in Snoozeville.

    Good food at that Indian?

  18. BB.. I’ve figured out how to use the bridge :-p

    Well, the offer of cheap red wine and a lumpy guest bed still stands if you get stuck under it.

  21. I’ve never tried the Egyptian, either. But I DO have a menu.

    It actually looks fantastic. It’s upstairs with an open balcony outlooking to the lake. Perfect for a warm summer’s evening.

    There is nothing like Middle Eastern food, although I have to say my heart belongs to Abdul’s (cnr Elizabeth & Cleveland Sts, Redfern, Sydney).

  22. BB

    You reminded me. Last time I went to Brooklyn (on the Hawkesbury). It has a beach. On the southern end of that beach is a typical Hawkesbury sandstone cliff.

    Probably not there now, but at the time I looked about 15 metres up and up there on ledge was a nice comfy couch.

  26. It’s an amazing list of elite athletes that have hailed from Wagga. I didn’t know Peter Sterling was a Wagga boy, the same home town as his great rival Steve Mortimer from the late 70’s and early 80’s. I wonder if they played against each other as kids in Wagga.

    Good to see the strong polls for Labor, and in particular the strong numbers in NSW. If the ALP 2PP in NSW still starts with a 5 when the actual votes are counted, that might just be the end for Morrison.

  30. BB

    You’re down near Smiths Lake?

    Indeed, in the thick of Smith’s Lake, alias Snoozeville. A proud resident of 4 years standing.

  33. The Services Club at Forster has the saddest bistro food queue I have ever seen. For a town with at least 15000 people, there is nothing happening. Nothing. Are the Souths Juniors club cottages even a thing anymore? Even West Wyalong and Narrandera have Olympic swimming pools. Why not Forster? Or Tuncurry? Where’s the race/trotting/dog track? Launceston has all three in front of the one grandstand – you can lose your money all afternoon and well into the night and they’ll bring your drink to you. I doubt even Daryl and Gladys could get this place out of bed.

    Now if we’re talking Buladelah or Nabiac…

  35. Parramatta Moderate,

    I think you’ll fine Peter Sterling may have only lived in Wagga for a while. Even my mother did. Snorky actually comes from Toowoomba, if memory serves. Terrific player though. Parra might still be waiting for number one if it weren’t for him and Brett Kenny (who apparently isn’t travelling too well).

  36. Back in the day, the RL Group based on Wagga Wagga (Group 8, or was that Canberra?) was very strong

    On reflection I thing Group 8 was based around Canberra and dominated by the side out of the Queanbeyan League’s Club, there being 2 sides out of Queanbeyan

    Then came the Canberra Raiders

  37. The Services Club at Forster has the saddest bistro food queue I have ever seen.

    Agree on this, and agree with most of your post.

    While we’re at it: where’s the effing hospital? Oh right… sold off by the Libs to private operators. Bad luck if you live in Snoozeville and need an ambulance. It’s half an hour to arrive, than a further hour to Taree Base. And yes, Taree is the place to go when you’ve decided to die. The ambulance bypasses the private hospital, full of nurses and doctors, both coming and going. But can’t stop there, even in an emetgency.

    Thanks Gladys.

    It’s bloody disgrace.

  38. It’s probly been mentioned here before but I just got onto the Guardian to find that Matthias Cormann is now urging Australia to adopt a carbon price. I couldn’t read the article. Having tea soon. I’m serious, I feel a bit sick.

  39. BSA Bob says:
    Thursday, October 28, 2021 at 9:16 pm

    It’s probly been mentioned here before but I just got onto the Guardian to find that Matthias Cormann is now urging Australia to adopt a carbon price. I couldn’t read the article. Having tea soon. I’m serious, I feel a bit sick.
    ________
    Wait until Nick Minchin joins the next Adani convoy.

  40. Member for Myall Lakes, Stephen Bromhead’s promise to deliver a public hospital for the people of the Great Lakes reached a significant milestone earlier today, Friday, April 23 with the announcement an independant consultant had been appointed.
    …
    “It will include a number of services, but an emergency department is what the people have been asking for.”
    …
    However, Mr Bromhead reminded eager residents the hospital could not be delivered ‘overnight’.

    https://www.greatlakesadvocate.com.au/story/7222739/a-public-hospital-for-the-great-lakes-moves-closer/

    QED.

  41. Is that the same Shanahan, who with Harcher, went to NZ during their most recent election campaign and was across the NZ media promoting a vote against the NZ government?

    New Zealanders certainly took notice of them

    The NZ pm has an absolute majority (first time ever for NZ)

  42. BB

    Been meaning to ask.. Is it possible to walk from the ocean beach to the town of Smiths Lake directly across the sand bars (without getting too wet) or do you have to go the long way around (Sandbar Road etc). ?

  44. Here’s something,

    I agree with Darryl McGuire about Wagga, it really should be a focus of major development. Building arts precincts and amenities should be high on the list for any state or federal government. Especially if it drives investment in the region.

    We actually need more big cities in Australia and having another inland city the size of Canberra will take the strain off the big smoke of Sydney.

    I’m not so fond of the corruption, I hope that wagga doesn’t suffer as a consequence. I have fond memories from a ‘fun’ 90 days there when in the Army.

  46. Manuel Macron has spoken to the Liar from the Shire..

    POSTED ON 28 OCTOBER 2021
    Statement on the phone call between President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

    On Thursday, 28 October, President Macron had a telephone call with the Prime Minister of Australia, Mr Scott Morrison.

    President Macron recalled that Australia’s unilateral decision to scale back the French-Australian strategic partnership by putting an end to the ocean-class submarine programme in favour of another as-yet unspecified project broke the relationship of trust between our two countries. The situation of the French businesses and their subcontractors, including Australian companies, affected by this decision will be given our utmost attention.

    It is now up to the Australian Government to propose tangible actions that embody the political will of Australia’s highest authorities to redefine the basis of our bilateral relationship and continue joint action in the Indo-Pacific.

    Looking ahead to the upcoming G20 in Rome and COP26 in Glasgow, the President of the French Republic encouraged the Australian Prime Minister to adopt ambitious measures commensurate with the climate challenge, in particular the ratcheting up of the nationally determined contribution, the commitment to cease production and consumption of coal at the national level and abroad, and greater Australian support to the International Solar Alliance.

    https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2021/10/28/statement-on-the-phone-call-between-president-emmanuel-macron-and-prime-minister-scott-morrison

  48. Sprocket

    Newspaper editors rarely, if ever, regret anything.
    Everybody else is wrong.
    Or they don’t understand.
    That was Stutchbury’s defence of the appalling Prue Goward column last week.

  49. BB

    Been meaning to ask.. Is it possible to walk from the ocean beach to the town of Smiths Lake directly across the sand bars (without getting too wet) or do you have to go the long way around (Sandbar Road etc). ?

    I have done exactly this. It takes about 30-40 minutes.

    You have to wait until the Lake is particularly low and closed to the ocean. At the moment it’s low (having been artifically opened via excavator, about 6 weeks ago when the rains threatened to cause it to flood), but still open to the ocean.

    The beach is called “Sandbar” at the southern end (where you would wade to or from) and “Cellito” at the northern end. It is one of the most beautiful, wild, lonely beaches in the world… at least that I have seen. I’ve been to beaches in the Greek Islands, the Maldives, Hawaii, Thailand, California, Brazil, New Caledonia, Fiji and Tahiti, and seen none finer than Cellito.

    It has a combination of wildness, warm waters, comfort, intimacy, isolation and purity that is a rare thing to encounter in the one place.

  50. Luck isn’t a lady for Scott Morrison. It looks like the first interest rate rise for years may come on his watch, BEFORE the election:

    Official interest rates could rise before Prime Minister Scott Morrison goes to the next election, with clear signs the Reserve Bank’s hand may be forced much earlier than expected to head off inflationary pressures that are set to drive up the cost of Christmas presents.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/era-of-low-interest-rates-is-over-rate-rises-expected-ahead-of-federal-election-20211028-p59403.html

    And more expensive Christmas presents will kill any Scottmentum stone dead.

Comments Page 20 of 22
1 … 19 20 21 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *