Essential Research: leadership ratings, ICAC, emissions targets

An improvement in both leaders’ personal ratings from Essential Research, plus strong support for a federal ICAC and more ambitious emissions targets.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find significant improvement in both leaders’ ratings. Scott Morrison is up four on approval to 54% and down three on disapproval to 37%, while Anthony Albanese is up four to 41% and down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 45-29, down from 47-26.

The poll also finds 78% would support a federal anti-corruption body, with only 11% opposed. Contrary to suggestions Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation would sap enthusiasm for the idea, 47% said it had made them more supportive, compared with 21% for less supportive.

Other questions focus on carbon emissions targets and climate change, including a finding that 68% support of a more ambitious target for 2030 and net zero by 2050, compared with 13% who did not favour targets and 19% who were unsure. Fifty-nine per cent agreed climate change was caused by human activity while 30% favoured the alternative of a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate, which in both cases is up three since June (Essential asks this question on a semi-regular basis), presumably reflecting a drop in an uncommitted response. Forty-two per cent said Australia was not doing enough (down three) compared with 31% for enough (up one) and 15% for too much (up three).

The Guardian’s report relates further results on climate change, and the poll presumably included the regular questions on federal and state government COVID-19 management. All will be laid out neatly in Essential Research’s report later today.

UPDATE: Full release here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,105 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, ICAC, emissions targets”

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  1. Clearly if the factions are demanding that delegates hand over their ballots to be filled in, then what they fear is that they can’t control their delegates.

    As Barney says, factionalism is inevitable in any organization, but a good organization will have rules and regulations to frustrate it and weaken it. Always aim to weaken it.

  2. Bert @ #900 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 5:20 pm

    Late Riser @ #885 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 5:04 pm

    I have a question for anyone in Victoria who has their “digital” vaccination certificate on their phone. Does it include a picture ID?

    Ever since I was snuck into a zoo using a family friend’s daughter’s zoo pass I’ve been aware how easy it is to show someone a real pass and pretend it’s yours. I was 12 at the time. My great uncle instructed me to use her name and to act confidently. Despite my being male it worked easily. (This same great uncle also used a colour photocopier, which were rare in 1969, to create a fake 50 Deutschmark note for me to keep. It made me nervous so I threw it away.)

    ??? Your Great Uncle instructed you to use HER name??? Did I miss something????

    Late Riser was very cute when he was young!?!

  3. Bert, assuming you’re not picking me up on lazy grammar, my great uncle instructed me to use the family friend’s daughter’s name. 🙂

  4. Late Riser @ #362 Wednesday, October 13th, 2021 – 5:04 pm

    I have a question for anyone in Victoria who has their “digital” vaccination certificate on their phone. Does it include a picture ID?

    Late Riser. All it shows is the green digital certificate when you take the option to show/view.
    Otherwise just a tick and the hologram(s) when you use it to check in somewhere.
    Managed to link on Monday and had to go into the shops on Tuesday.

  5. Thanks laughtong. Without getting into what makes people tick, it’s amazing what you can get away with if you act confidently and make the other person risk the first move.

  6. If anyone thought that Briefly didn’t have a clue about domestic politics, he has even less of an idea when it comes to Britain. People turned away from Labour at the same time that most of the left struggled in Europe, about the same time that they embraced neo liberalism. Briefly’s view is that Labour in Britain are not sufficiently right wing. They need to ape the Tories more closely.

  7. Factions

    In the Victorian Division of the Liberal Party there are how many?

    Kroger has his faction – now absorbed by the Bastiaan/Sukkar faction because Kroger wanted to maintain his position

    Then you have Kennett and Costello

    And that is before you get to the few in the Parliament where they hold seats courtesy of donors who have received favours

  8. Nino Bucci
    @ninobucci
    Sullivan is talking about collecting ballots from members and then completing them on their behalf as part of factional work. He said that if you left it to voters “they might mail it half way to Siberia, they might not complete it properly, you don’t have control of the process”

  9. I’m assuming that when voting rights is given back to Vic ALP the new landscape will be more favorable to the Socialist Left considering 2000 ‘members’ have been expelled and the collapse of the ML faction. Although you’d assume the elements of the Right would be attempting to build their stacks again. Whose left on the Right without ML?, The AWU, the SDA, Conroy’s TWU.

  10. What a stupid comment.

    Prue MacSween
    @macsween_prue
    · 57m
    Apparently @DanielAndrewsMP said he was “sent” to rid Vic of Covid. Does anyone have a return address?

  11. nath

    As I said earlier, the most rampant misuse of power happened when the Left and indies had the numbers. To the extent that their own organisers rebelled, and one of them filled some ballot papers which had been shoved into her hands to favour the Right.

    The delegates concerned wanted her disciplined, but the point was made that she hadn’t asked to be given the ballot papers and had been told to fill them out, so she did.

  12. Katharine Murphy
    @murpharoo
    ·
    2m
    Academic Anne Twomey warns there is a “good chance” the federal government lacks the power to award many of the latest round of grants ⁦

  13. A friend sent me an email today which consisted of several quite clever aphorisms. This one immediately caught my eye because of its obvious relevance to some of the verbal exchanges I see here on Poll Bludger.

    ‘In life, it’s important to know when to stop arguing and simply let them be wrong.’

  14. Soc
    It turns housing construction into a perpetual motion machine. As soon as you put it up it falls down and you have to start all over again.

  15. The Drum panel absolutely lapping up the LNP’s apparent conversion on climate change. All saying how utterly brilliant it is politically, and how fixing these things with tech and without huge cost ties in with them being good economic managers.

    Must be tough for the govt when the media writes its narrative for it.

  16. I have absolutely no problems on either count.

    Is that as close to an ethnic put down as you dare to express?

    C’mon be daring, no one knows who you are.

  17. I used to get my car serviced across the road from that apartment complex in Canterbury. It always seemed massively out of proportion with its surroundings.

  18. As reported on Melbourne news tonight, one of the most intriguing developments of today’s IBAC was the question of deceased members having their membership renewal signatures forged. I hope they follow this up closely.

  19. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 6:13 pm

    I have absolutely no problems on either count.

    Is that as close to an ethnic put down as you dare to express?

    C’mon be daring, no one knows who you are.
    _____________
    No it wasn’t an ethnic put down at all. I was referring to the availability of good food and coffee due to the lack of a substantial Italian population. Which I have access to here in Melbourne.

  20. That Baird will be a witness in the ICAC hearing into the alleged corrupt conduct of Berejiklian was out of left field.

    Although his popularity had dropped precipitously,* his resignation in Jan 2017 came, at least to me, a shock. It’s axiomatic that he had no knowledge whatsoever of Maguire’s corruption, let alone Berejiklian’s secret affair, which led to her predicament.

    Although Berejiklian is well known for huggermuggery, how does a premier hide for five years a liaison with a prick like Maguire, especially in the most rabid assembly in the world save perhaps for Seoul?

    Looking forward with intense interest to next week.

    * ‘After replacing [the corrupt] Barry O’Farrell as Premier in April 2014, Baird initially fared well in statewide opinion polls but his approval rating collapsed in the 2nd half of 2016. From December 2015 to September 2016, Baird’s satisfaction rating fell by 46 points—”the biggest fall in net satisfaction of any mainland state premier in the history of Newspoll”.

  21. Wat Tyler

    UK Labour finally lost Scotland for good when they took the hard line against independence in the 2014 referendum. It fed the perception that Labour was more interested in keeping a few Scottish Labour seats in Westminster than it cared about the will of the Scottish people.
    ————

    Despite one of the Scottish founders of the Labour Party, Kier Hardie, believing in home rule for Scotland the modern UK Labour Party is as staunchly unionist as DUP.

    It wasn’t just that the Labour Party took an anti-independence stance in the 2014 referendum it united with the Tories and LibDems in the “Better Together” organisation and campaigned with lies, deceit and disinformation. Better Together was Funded by Tory grandees and fronted by the Labour Party. What a disgrace!

    While Corbyn may have once had a bit of an attraction to Scottish voters by his leadership the Labour Party was dead in Scotland.

  22. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 6:17 pm

    You gutless piece of nothing.
    _______________
    You chose to interpret an ethnic slur from what I said. I denied it and explained the context, which is quite obvious in my opinion.

  23. The issue with Constitutional questions is it requires someone with standing to challenge the Cth’s authority.

    Usually, standing = beneficiary. So…

    @burgey – it’s definitely good politics. It’s going to be the closest thing the Coaltion has as a wedge “we’ll get emissions down, which you want… but unlike them, we’re not going to make you pay for it”

  24. I was almost brought to tears on learnig that Palmer broke down in the High Court, his emotional outburst not working on this particuar occasion. I’ve witnessed the partners of crims, at bail applications, to have a partner in court, with a leg in plaster, in a wheelchair, while attempting manage four screaming kids. The judiciary has no compassion.

  25. sprocket_ says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 6:30 pm

    nath, why don’t you regale us with the goings on at IBAC?
    ____________
    Sprocket, you are so sweet.

    But I think I’ve commented enough on IBAC for the day. Feel free to scroll back and have a gander.

  26. Interesting factional play in Melanie Gibbons ditching Holsworthy to run for Hughes.

    Gibbons’ partner, Sutherland Shire councillor and Liberal Moderate Kent Johns, has been shafted on more than one occasion by Morrison in the adjoining seat of Cook. In short, Johns was heavied out of preselection in Hughes by Morrison- to protect his mate Craig Kelly.

    So Craig Kelly repays the conniving Morrison, fast approaching a faction of but a few sycophants, by shafting his patron. Or has he? The Kelly/Palmer arrangement has enabled the flood of yellow tinged lies to proliferate, flouting the spirit of fair comment by attaching Kelly’s MP status to Palmer’s loot.

    Worked last time, and if it works again – hey, Moderates, fill your boots with the seat.

  27. On The Drum there is a cheerful discussion at present concerning the Morrison Climate Epiphany, and how it is supported by New Ltd publications, without the slightest questioning or quibbling on the subject of whether the massive about face is is genuine. And no discussion as to the bare-faced chutzpah of the government harnessing a media organization (or is it the other way ’round?) to do its spruiking.

    These bastards at News and in the Coalition have had it their way for twenty years on Climate. They have trashed every single attempt – even their own! – to take action on Global Warming. Now they have been converted. They’re on the Road To Damascus. The media have cheered them on when they were against it, and are now cheering them on when they’re for it.

    Labor are being depicted as well-meaning dupes, do-gooders, earnest, but no finesse, the nation’s hapless conscience. They either have too much policy (as at the last election), or too little (as at the coming election). They just can’t get the timing right. Such a pity.

    Also prevalent is the attitude that we might well suspect their motives, but “Any port in a storm, guys” they’re on-side now, let’s not upset them in case they get churlish about it. The punters who read their newspapers will be fooled, so let’s celebrate!

    Pathetic.

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