Essential Research: leadership ratings, ICAC, emissions targets

An improvement in both leaders’ personal ratings from Essential Research, plus strong support for a federal ICAC and more ambitious emissions targets.

The Guardian reports the fortnightly Essential Research survey includes the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which find significant improvement in both leaders’ ratings. Scott Morrison is up four on approval to 54% and down three on disapproval to 37%, while Anthony Albanese is up four to 41% and down two to 34%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 45-29, down from 47-26.

The poll also finds 78% would support a federal anti-corruption body, with only 11% opposed. Contrary to suggestions Gladys Berejiklian’s resignation would sap enthusiasm for the idea, 47% said it had made them more supportive, compared with 21% for less supportive.

Other questions focus on carbon emissions targets and climate change, including a finding that 68% support of a more ambitious target for 2030 and net zero by 2050, compared with 13% who did not favour targets and 19% who were unsure. Fifty-nine per cent agreed climate change was caused by human activity while 30% favoured the alternative of a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate, which in both cases is up three since June (Essential asks this question on a semi-regular basis), presumably reflecting a drop in an uncommitted response. Forty-two per cent said Australia was not doing enough (down three) compared with 31% for enough (up one) and 15% for too much (up three).

The Guardian’s report relates further results on climate change, and the poll presumably included the regular questions on federal and state government COVID-19 management. All will be laid out neatly in Essential Research’s report later today.

UPDATE: Full release here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,105 comments on “Essential Research: leadership ratings, ICAC, emissions targets”

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  1. Q : Although Berejiklian is well known for huggermuggery, how does a premier hide for five years a liaison with a prick like Maguire

    Especially with Maguire running around monetising and promoting his ‘close associations’ with the Premier with any spiv he could find.

  2. And who is this Melanie Gibbons? Great Hope of the Liberal Party to win back their rightful seat of Hughes? Here she is in the ‘Bear Pit’..

  3. Of course the Coalition’s climate accord will be presented as Morrison’s Nixon in China moment.

    Only a conservative can deliver on climate change etc etc.

    There’s really only a few tweaks to the 2019 formula:

    1. News Limited in charge of the air war;
    2. Climate Change, Coalition Style
    3. “Freedom” post Covid
    4. Clive Palmer/ Craig Kelly focusing on the Labor voting ,vaccine resistant
    5. Mother of All negative campaigns about Albo

    The question is what does Labor have in response?

  4. From Guardian updates at 17:33

    TGA has issued a provisional determination to commence a staged process to approve Pfizer for 5-11yo’s.

    So now it is clear that numbers vaccinated should be expressed as a percentage of the population 5+.

    On 12 October 2021, the TGA, part of the Department of Health, granted a provisional determination to Pfizer Australia Pty Ltd in relation to its Covid-19 Vaccine, Comirnaty.

    Currently, Comirnaty is provisionally approved for use in individuals 12 years of age or older. The granting of this determination means that Pfizer is now eligible to apply to vary the provisional approval for the vaccine to include children aged 5 to 11 years.

    This provisional determination is the first step in the process and does not mean that an application for variation has been made by the sponsor – or that any such variation will be provisionally approved by the TGA.

    In making its decision to grant Pfizer a provisional determination for use in individuals 5 to 11 years, the TGA considered eligibility criteria, including factors such as the evidence of a plan to submit comprehensive clinical data in relation to use in this age group – and the seriousness of the current Covid-19 pandemic.

  5. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:00 pm

    I suspect sprocket may have feederism:
    Lmao. There is definitely some kind of fetish going on.

  6. Citizen

    “So now it is clear that numbers vaccinated should be expressed as a percentage of the population 5+.”

    Does not look like Pfizer are in a hurry yet.

    We have 0+, 12+ and 16+, the first of which is the world comparator. The 12+ and 16+ will soon merge.

  7. Fulvio Sammut:

    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 6:40 pm

    [‘It’s not what you say Mavis, it’s the circumstances in which you say it.

    Context is everything.’]

    Admittedly context is the key. And often, for me at least, one needs to go back in the history of this site. I for one, once ticked off Frank Calabrese – I wish I hadn’t. And also Puffy, to whom I apoligised via WB. I can’t remember exactly, but I think on waking on the morrow, I should’ve be banned.

  8. GG,


    All the qualitative research says the first word voters think when Morrison’s name comes up is “Bullshitter”.

    Of course you are right, but they’ve thought of that.

    Starting with David Crowe in the SMH a couple of days ago we were told that we should stop whingeing about so-called “hypocrisy” and cease any mutterings about “double standards”. Those who have always wanted Climate action have been VINDICATED! Take the win guys. What are you complaining about? Want an apology? A mea culpa? Don’t hold your breath. Just be grateful they’ve changed tack.

    The next step is to tell us that ONLY Liberals could drag everyone into a room, bang their heads together and get a result… something that Labor and the Greens just couldn’t make stick.

    Underlying all this is that the punters believe everything they read in Murdoch’s tabloids. They also don’t watch The Drum or Insiders, so the journos on those shows can freely, publicly discuss how they’re being taken for mugs. They won’t care! They only care about the footy!

  9. BB,

    Wishing it away in the newspaper doesn’t address the fact that the attitude is already inculcated in the community.

    No one reads hard copy newspapers these days.

    The thundering rhetoric of the journos is amusing to watch these days.

  10. Re Shellbell @7:02. “We have 0+, 12+ and 16+ [vaccinated], the first of which is the world comparator. The 12+ and 16+ will soon merge.”

    The only meaningful measure is the percentage of people eligible to be infected, so 0+.

  11. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:15 pm

    [‘Please don’t judge people by their looks.’]

    Most men do. If they don’t, they’re lying.
    Unless your sprockets – who goes by the amount of pork on the woman.

  12. People with different ideas or views inside a party aren’t factions in the corrupt and moribund mafia like sense that apparently occurs in Labor.

    Which can evidently involve head office manipulations, obviously branch stacking, ghost jobs and stitched up ‘votes’ or just head office ‘executive’ interventions to get ‘approved’ candidates up. Over and above any wishes or interests of even local members. Where members are evidently nobodies just making up the factional heads numbers, so those factional heads can have extended abusive arguments, make idiotic threats to each other and exchange angry texts over years and years.

    All pre selections in say the Greens are one member one vote secret ballot for all local, state and federal pre selections. People can argue and put their different views or cases to members but no-one aside from eligible members in the specific electorate (local, state or federal level) votes for who they think would be best for the job.

    It’s what is called democracy. Not a manipulated sham or factional power play for some bastards ego.

    As I said the recent discussions with an apparently sensible human who happened to be member of Labor didn’t disagree with my analysis. Indeed they were thoroughly exasperated and apparently boosted by the idea that there was any political party that had local member engagement and voting for all positions and candidates as the default.

    The situation is the PB clique is a largely self-selecting and brigading bunch of hard head partisans and apparent Labor hacks, so best to take comments here with the sense of humour or derision they deserve.

  13. Lurker says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:22 pm
    Old Sprocket should post a photo of himself, and just to be fair we all should. In fact I will go first.
    I’ve always thought the People’s Court of Pollbludger was the best judge.

  14. Same old, same old from Quoll I see.

    Nothing about the cliques and claques in The Greens, Quoll? I wonder why? Gets in the way of the Anti Labor narrative, doesn’t it? 🙂

  15. Lars Von Trier:

    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:17 pm

    [‘Unless your sprockets – who goes by the amount of pork on the woman’]

    I’m not so sure. There’s nothing in his posts suggestive of sexism. I think it’s a fail, dear Lars.

  16. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:27 pm
    Lars Von Trier:

    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:17 pm

    [‘Unless your sprockets – who goes by the amount of pork on the woman’]

    I’m not so sure. There’s nothing in his posts suggetive of sexism. I think it’s a fail, dear Lars.
    A picture tells a thousand words mavis.

  17. The stupidity of political corruption: I hope Tim Richardson, ALP member from Mordialloc is able to establish he wasn’t complicit in the alleged misappropriation of public funds that were used for his election campaign. Mordialloc is historically a classic marginal seat. It was one of the seats that gave the Liberals victory on 2010 and that helped secure Andrews’ narrow win in 2014. Though Richardson benefited from a big swing in 2018, there’s no reason it cannot swing back. Whether he was involved or not, this alleged public misconduct by Somyurek’s staff moves us one key seat closer to Matthew Guy, Premier of Victoria. That’s an outcome I dread, but I’d have to say that if it does come about the State ALP has itself to blame, and those who don’t want that outcome can and will properly blame it. Irrespective of how widespread this type of misconduct might have been, the leaders of the party are accountable for the weak governance that’s enabled it.

    “Yes, I was,” the former staffer replied.

    “I believe you’d be referring to the purchase of stamps by Mr Somyurek’s budget.”

    He estimated that he personally bought between $11,000 and $14,000 worth of stamps in 2018 using Mr Somyurek’s electorate office budget, but said “a fair number of them” were used to help Mr Richardson’s campaign for re-election that year.

  18. Mavissays:
    Wednesday, October 13, 2021 at 7:15 pm

    [‘Please don’t judge people by their looks.’]

    Most men do. If they don’t, they’re lying.

    In my experience so do most women. It’s a very human thing to do.

  19. The Coalition and their political Wing Newscorp Australia (or perhaps Newscorp and their Australian political subsidiary) have had a climate epiphany? Well, let’s see what they come up with. Anyone can say they want something to happen in 30 years’ time. After all, no one in office now will have to deliver. What’s the plan to get there?

    For a start, any such plan needs targets with dates and success criteria than can be measured. If there is no meaningful target for 2030, 30% into the “project”, dismiss the plan out of hand. It is bullshit, a smokescreen behind which they’ll kick the can down the road.

    Dismiss anything relating to carbon capture and storage, gas, “clean” coal (an oxymoron like “clean shit”, increasing use of gas or planting trees. That’s just a plan to protect fossil fuel profits.

    And who’s going to write the plan? More gas executives? Surely they’re all busy with all the work the Federal Government’s already sent their way.

  20. Wow.

    Patrick Alexander Flag of Scotland
    Covid cases yesterday:

    France: 1,120
    Spain: 1,277
    Italy: 1,561
    Germany: 4,872

    UK: 40,224

  21. I’m staying away from Morrison’s pivot to “Climate Change is real”, other than what I can’t avoid. But from comments here and headlines there, his strategy does have a feel to it that is similar to the Marriage Equality debate, for which Turnbull eventually took credit. It wouldn’t surprise me if Morrison is trying the same. He needs to fool the Nationals and pork might do that. He then needs to fool enough of the electorate that this time he means what he says. That might be more difficult. But Murdoch will help, no doubt.

  22. On a per capita basis, Germany’s numbers are comparable to Australia’s. France, Italy and Spain are doing much better at the moment.

  23. The Coalition have said they plan to keep coal and gas going. That is at odds with decarbonising, short of rapid advances in CCS. With a plan like that, Australia’s emissions trajectory will not change.

    They (and Newscorp) have simply switched to selling that trajectory as sufficient to meet our commitments and targets (we are leading the world, don’t you know). They’re banking on only being held to account 30 odd years from now when we miss our targets.

  24. Labor have positioned themselves poorly to be able to call the Coalition’s bluff, having me-tooed the Coalition narrative. Australians are convinced we’re on track. Again, from up top:

    Forty-two per cent said Australia was not doing enough (down three) compared with 31% for enough (up one) and 15% for too much (up three).

    More Australians than not believe we’re already doing enough. In other words, people want something done, and they believe we’re already doing it.

  25. Morrison has one priority: winning an election.

    He will unveil a 2050 plan, agreed to by the Nats and supported by the media and aimed at wedging Labor.

    In the event of a Liberal-NP win the plan will disappear into thin air.

  26. DN,

    It’s nice that you acknowledge the Morrison Government is all announcement and no follow through.

    Labor ‘s intent is to win the next Election. So, your gratuitously self righteous criticisms are not worth a pinch of shit.

    Climate Change is just one of the issues that the next Labor Government will deal with. You Greens are always making yourself irrelevant to the broader more real community debate about all issues.

    30 years and the Greens have achieved fuck all.

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