The Australian has dropped a new Newspoll a fortnight rather than three weeks after the last, perhaps portending a quickening of the schedule as the federal election approaches. Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 48% and disapproval to 49%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 37% and down one to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister edges from 47-35 to 47-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1545.
UPDATE: The poll also found 59% approval and 31% disapproval for Australia “building and operating nuclear-powered submarines”, which was put to respondents after an introductory spiel explaining the AUKUS deal. Forty-six per cent felt it would make Australia more secure, compared with 14% less secure and 29% for no difference. Seventy-five per cent rated that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security, compared with 15% who did not.
“Why is Matthew Guy doing a presser in front of a chook pen?”
Feeding the chooks?
NSW numbers still looking good. Here is the plot of the three-day centred average of new local Covid cases:
Numbers are dropping by about 4.5% daily. We may be at about 460 new cases when we start to open up on Monday, maybe below 350 a week after that. Then – who knows?
Professor Esterman’s ref for Vic today
Another cloudy day in Adelaide, with showers and a top of 22. Victoria has another 1429 local cases and sadly 11 deaths. The 5-day moving average is up to 1450, but the Reff has dropped to 1.22, which is welcome news.
Victoria is not looking so good. Here’s their three-day centred average plotted on a logarithmic scale (green line).
The red line is the seven-day average.
It’s not “out of control” otherwise escalation would be much faster, but new daily local cases seem to be increasing at a rate of about 8% daily, up from 6% a couple of weeks ago.
Beemer
Be scared Labor will have open borders and we will get a flood of refugees.
This is just one example of the LNP being the party of fear and hate. Trump was in awe.
After recent talk of matters French an “on this day”
Guytaur
That’s playing politics because the same politicians open the border to visa holders.
The only reason that works is because the left hasn’t worked out how to set targets and stick to them.
ACT: +0.86% first dose to 94.7%.
100% day + 12 approaches.
@JonesHowdareyou tweets
REPEAT AFTER ME:
“We would not (still) be in lockdown if Scott ordered enough vaccines”
Copy. Paste. Tweet. Retweet. #auspol #Morrison
guytaur @ #1358 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 10:00 am
I’m pretty sure they have ordered more than enough vaccine.
The main problem is that much of it hasn’t arrived.
Mexicanbeemer at 12.40pm
I agree with your definition of ‘conservative’:
‘…conservative is about supporting existing social structures and institutions. Conservatives can be pro change but want it introduced gradually and being conservative means taking less risk.’
The thing is, lots of people and parties that call themselves ‘conservative’ simply aren’t. Trump Republicans are not conservatives – they’re not interested in supporting existing institutions or gradual change, for example.
The Coalition in Australian has been divesting itself of conservatism since the 1970s, when two L/N Premiers defied convention and appointed replacements for ALP senators who were not put forward by the ALP. In 1975, that gave Fraser the ability to block supply, then connive with Kerr to have Kerr fail to follow the advice of the Prime Minister of the day.
With the Coalition, the spectrum is Right and Far Right.
Labor is more conservative, and has been since Whitlam accepted his own dismissal.
By the way, ‘radical’ comes from the Latin ‘radix,’ meaning ‘root’ (the plant variety!)
To be ‘radical’ literally means to go to the root of a matter. The question of marriage equality asks questions about the nature and usefulness of marriage, for example. The ‘radical’ response to the nature of marriage is to remove gender restrictions from the institution, a logical outcome.
“I notice David Crisafulli in QLD is turning into LNP version of Matthew Guy in Victoria”
David Crisafulli had the chance to be bold and go against the Christian right of his party and vote for the Voluntarily Assisted Dying laws. He took the safe option and voted against it.
That may go against him next election as voters in Brisbane are generally socially moderate. And the LNP desperately need to make inroads there if their any chance of winning.
NSW 100,000+ second doses yesterday.
Now about 75% first dose whole population (6.08/8.12 million) and 56% double dose whole population (4.57/8.12 million).
11 October lessening at about 76% first dose and 61% second dose, I reckon.
25 October maybe 78% first dose and 71% second dose
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/health/covid-moderna-pfizer-vaccines.amp.html
From the Guardian blog. As the ABC radio spin doctors said this morning it will be very difficult for the feds to win this one.
The Victorian health minister Martin Foley is delivering quite a spray at the Federal Government over its funding of the hospital system, or lack thereof:
I’ve noticed some of the public commentary especially by the Prime Minister talks of I think it is a shakedown politics. It’s actually partnership politics. Since 2016, the commonwealth government has reduced its overall contribution as a percentage term of support for our public health system. It used to be 50-50 as the general principle. It was reduced 45-55.
All of the states and territories came together in April to share our concerns with the commonwealth in this regard and pointed out that already, as we were dealing with than 12 months of Covid, our systems were stretched, our people were exhausted and that we needed further additional investment to that which had already been put in by the commonwealth. I’ve seen some of the comments which have come from other commonwealth, I think they are regrettable.
We welcome the support that the commonwealth has brought over the course of the pandemic but the inescapable truth is some of those partnership arrangements have expired. Some have not. What we need is community partnership, not the blame shifting politics that we are seeing from the commonwealth.
That was probably the Blue Moon cafe. I think it finally closed when the owners retired. They had a lot of bottled wine for sale also.
For serious carnivores, the Central Cafe in Queanbeyan was the place to go. They had huge plates of meat; I tried the mixed grill once and it defeated me. They closed but apparently an imitator opened a little while ago.
So far, about 88,000 cases, 470 deaths.
The “Bondi Cluster” started on June 16 when Delta escaped into Sydney from our leaky quarantine arrangements. At the time about 18% of the NSW population had had a single dose of vaccine and a bit over 3% were fully vaccinated.
There have been failures at State level, but the Federal Government, in its failure to address its responsibilities in quarantine and in its incoherent and incompetent acquisition and rollout of vaccines, bears the lion’s share of responsibility for the situation in which we find ourselves.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 12:11 pm
So less Ponzi scheme, more an economy built on margin lending.
How do you think they bulked up their economy so spectacularly, so quickly? By opaque fudges to normal accounting rules.
Not so much.
China’s economy has been driven by massive fixed capital investment since the late 1980s. There have been 40 years of massive investment in infrastructure and industrial capacity of every kind. This is real. It is no mere figment of accounting.
Allied to this, the labour force has been urbanised, industrialised, educated and modernised. China set out to convert an agricultural peasantry into an urban working- and middle-class by industrialising. In doing so, they accomplished in two generations a transformation that has lasted 4 centuries in Britain, 2 in Germany, France, Italy, Russia and the US, and that required a single century in Japan.
This is an incomplete project of the Communist Party, who operate the most intimate parts of the State. It has involved every instrument available to re-constitute the peoples and the economy of China. For all the economic transformation, the project has also been accompanied by deep repression of various kinds, from financial repression, to the confiscation of lands and property to the arbitrary and corrupt use of bureaucratic power and to the deliberately calculated use of violence in a whole range of theatres. We should feel for the people of China, who are essentially without the political, economic and civil rights that we take for granted.
While China now has the largest economy in the world, it also has the largest system of State surveillance and political repression. China is now really a neo-Imperial dictatorship. It is not the China of Sun Yat-Sen or Mao Tse-Tung. It is another China altogether.
The past comforts available to us as an archeo-colonial political, strategic and economic dependency of the UK and the US will be less and less relevant in a region dominated by a hegemonic China. We really have not begun to address the changes that are already well in train.
We should study China much more closely than we do. But we probably won’t. We’re very content to see China as no more than than the sum of a series of cliches borrowed from the past and propagated in ignorance.
@BernardKeane tweets
#BREAKING In a defeat for the federal government in its pursuit of Bernard Collaery, the attempt for former attorney-general Christian Porter to keep the trial hidden has been overturned by the ACT court of appeal, writes @BernardKeane [Unlocked]
https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/10/06/win-for-collaery-derails-porters-attempt-to-cover-up-timor-leste-bugging/
The co-called conservatives in the LNP are nothing of the sort. They are reactionaries. They are hostile to modernity and to every principle of egalitarian justice.
I remember the same sort of things being said about Japan when they purchased the land to build Yeppoon and Yanchep. Didn’t happen.
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases drop 16 days in a row
– New cases: 93,459 …………………… – New deaths: 1,994
– In hospital: 69,148 (-937)
– In ICU: 19,114 (-432)
724,728 total deaths now
Briefly
A good summary of China the good and the bad.
Nothing partisan in your post. We should have started adjusting to China after Tiananmen Square. Hawke had the right approach. We just held onto hope too long. Backed up by the self interest of commercial interests.
Today’s so called conservatives are an embarrassment for supporting Trump’s attempted coup.
No real conservative would support Trump’s antics.
I bet Scott Morrison would consider this a ‘shakedown’ too these days:
Mexicanbeemer @ #1373 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 1:51 pm
A Reactionary Conservative would because that’s what they are.
C@T
They are reactionary and possibly fascist.
So many synonyms for “conservative” being bandied about. 🙂
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 11:33 am
guytaur @ #1323 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 11:27 am
@adamjacoby tweets
Conservatism does not mean responsible, it means afraid.
Afraid of change, difference, equality, transparency, accountability, diversity, meritocracy, emancipation, democracy, compassion, decency and fair competition.
Conservatives hold us back from becoming better. #auspol
Totally. All about fear. Howard was the template. Think of the fearless – Whitlam, Hawke, Keating, Gillard
”
When compared to W, H, K and G, Albanese is not fearless. That is one of the reasons he looks listless.
JK Galbraith had ‘conservatives’ nailed many years ago.
Tony Blakely
@TonyBlakely_PI
For many, this may be surprising. But because numbers are going down, and vaccine coverage is still increasing, opening up in NSW at 70% double vacc looks pretty safe
@MrKRudd tweets
What a Morrison-Dutton triumph! 1)US President has to apologise to Macron because Morrison misled him. 2) Europe now divided on China strategy. 3)France isolates Oz in Europe on trade and climate.4)No Oz subs until 2040. And China very happy with 1-4 above
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-06/dan-tehan-in-france-amid-climate-and-submarines-tension/100512418
The US and France are starting to patch things up. The lackey will be in the freezer for some time though.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/emmanuel-macron-still-refusing-to-speak-with-scott-morrison-after-ditched-submarine-deal-ng-b882028370z
This morning I went to a suburban hospital to have my annual CT brain scan. Everyone entering the radiology section was asked if they agreed to a Covid Antigen test, as they were doing a ‘survey’.
All I had to provide was my name and phone number, and I thought it might have been useful if they had also recorded the suburb. But that’s just me, I suppose.
Ven says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 2:09 pm
”
ItzaDreamsays:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 11:33 am
guytaur @ #1323 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 11:27 am
@adamjacoby tweets
Conservatism does not mean responsible, it means afraid.
Afraid of change, difference, equality, transparency, accountability, diversity, meritocracy, emancipation, democracy, compassion, decency and fair competition.
Conservatives hold us back from becoming better. #auspol
Totally. All about fear. Howard was the template. Think of the fearless – Whitlam, Hawke, Keating, Gillard
Gillard capitulated without hesitation to the Green trolls in the Senate.
@MrKRudd tweets
What a Morrison-Dutton triumph! 1)US President has to apologise to Macron because Morrison misled him. 2) Europe now divided on China strategy. 3)France isolates Oz in Europe on trade and climate.4)No Oz subs until 2040. And China very happy with 1-4 above
Rudd is quite right. Dutton is doubtless the chef of this wretched mess, Morrison merely the serving attendant. From Howard on, through Downer, Abbott and all the rest, the LNP have made a complete hash of Defence and Foreign Affairs. Australia is much the worse for it. They are really unfit to hold office on this alone.
BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
10h
BREAKING: Romania reports 0 ICU beds available nationwide as COVID-19 crisis intensifies
Sighing Coot
No Gillard capitulated to scientific evidence.
This is where you go into fantasy calling the Greens trolls.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 2:52 pm
Sighing Coot
No Gillard capitulated to scientific evidence.
This is where you go into fantasy calling the Greens trolls.
This is not fantasy. Trolling is their MO. Gillard put Labor’s well-being in the hands of her sworn enemies. Fundamental mistake. Labor is still paying for this and will go on paying for it until a majority Labor Government is elected and rules effectively in spite of Green/LNP hostility.
The chances of a Labor victory at the forthcoming election are slender. Reactionary trolls of every hue will be doing whatever they can to protect their privileges and to defeat Labor.
Briefly
Keep campaigning for the Liberals. I am not buying your fantasy thst Gillard was a coward or a fool.
You obviously wouldn’t deal with a conman in the same way as someone you trust. It’s bizarre that Australia thinks things will continue as normal after revealing we’re the former.
I missed this. Small government at work?
Kevin Rudd
@MrKRudd
·
3m
Murdoch’s protection racket is wonderfully consistent… But in case you’ve forgotten, the NSW Govt is in chaos because the independent corruption watchdog is investigating allegations the last premier failed to report suspected corruption in her own ranks. #MurdochRoyalCommission
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 1:58 pm
C@T
They are reactionary and possibly fascist.
____________________________
When do you think the arrests will start? Where will the first detention camp be built?
How will we know its started?
Lars
If I ever stop posting, you’ll know what’s up.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 2:58 pm
Briefly
Keep campaigning for the Liberals. I am not buying your fantasy that Gillard was a coward or a fool.
The Rudd Government – elected with a substantial 2PP – lasted just over 2 years and the prologue was a period of minority Government, from which almost nothing survives. Gillard was instrumental in all of this. Her agreement with the Green trolls from the Senate was a day of infamy for Labor. Ignominious surrender to the enemy.
Just what was needed Not
Cancer ward at the Chidren’s Hospital named a tier 1 site.
Briefly
Last comment on this. You are wrong. Gillard was not a fool she was not a coward.
She ran one of the best governments in our nations history.
Lol guytaur was waiting for someone to start a debate
‘poroti says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 2:24 pm
The US and France are starting to patch things up. The lackey will be in the freezer…’
_________________________________
I wouldn’t talk to Tehan if you paid me.