The Australian has dropped a new Newspoll a fortnight rather than three weeks after the last, perhaps portending a quickening of the schedule as the federal election approaches. Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 48% and disapproval to 49%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 37% and down one to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister edges from 47-35 to 47-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1545.
UPDATE: The poll also found 59% approval and 31% disapproval for Australia “building and operating nuclear-powered submarines”, which was put to respondents after an introductory spiel explaining the AUKUS deal. Forty-six per cent felt it would make Australia more secure, compared with 14% less secure and 29% for no difference. Seventy-five per cent rated that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security, compared with 15% who did not.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 3:16 pm
Briefly
Last comment on this. You are wrong. Gillard was not a fool she was not a coward.
She ran one of the best governments in our nations history.
“….best governments…”
What a hoot. Of the measures passed barely anything survives. The plurality was trashed. The strengths and reach of the enemies were increased. The reactionaries rejoice. No amount of deflection and false praise is going to change that. In fact, the institutional divide in reformist opinion is worse than ever.
‘Shellbell says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 2:15 pm
Tony Blakely
@TonyBlakely_PI
For many, this may be surprising. But because numbers are going down, and vaccine coverage is still increasing, opening up in NSW at 70% double vacc looks pretty safe’
————————————–
WTF does ‘pretty safe’ mean in statistical terms. How many ICU beds full? How many on ventilators? How many long covids? How many dead?
@JohnWDean tweets
Amen!!!!
@danielsgolden tweets
If McConnell forces Dems to carve out the debt limit from the filibuster, Dems must also include fundamental constitutional rights such as voting in that carve out. The dam will be broken.
DisplayName says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 3:11 pm
Lars
How will we know its started?
If I ever stop posting, you’ll know what’s up.
____________________________
Display Name last seen sipping probiotic drink and getting into back of blacked out VW Caddy with Commonwealth plates?
Lars
January 6 was a wake up for conservatives about the wolves pretending to be conservatives
BW
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/nsw-should-be-okay-opening-up
This is the cases part
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/nsw-should-be-okay-opening-up
Mexicanbeemer says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 3:27 pm
Lars
January 6 was a wake up for conservatives about the wolves pretending to be conservatives
________________________
Your still posting freely? Or have you seen the Black VW Caddy’s watching your place too?
Boerwar at 3:21 pm
If they did meet him it would give them a wonderful opportunity to publicly and privately insult him ‘diplomatically’ a dozen different ways. The probability Tehan would realise he was being insulted and humiliated is probably too low for them to bother.
Guytaur at 3.06pm
Re ‘best governments’
I know people of the Left who love Whitlam and hate Hawke.
Whitlam (in the face of conspiracy) failed to secure government long enough to make some of his reforms (like Medibank [public]) stick.
Hawke secured government long enough to make Medicare stick. Hawke/Keating oversaw massive economic change while also devoting resources to assist those affected – like the Hunter Area Assistance Scheme, to assist people transitioning away from steelworks employment. Howard just let people lose their jobs.
My theorem: Labor governments always disappoint, but you don’t want the alternative.
I pine for the mid-80s to early 90s, when the LNP despaired of ever winning again and massive beneficial change was ushered in.
Snappy
Yes. In both cases they were the government of their time. Just as Gillard’s was.
She did politics 101, the art of the possible. Using the market economic orthodoxy of trade to get an environmental outcome called a carbon price.
Apparently this is acceding to trolls or putting your fate into someone else’s hands.
lizzie @ #1391 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 3:04 pm
A present for Mr Parrothead:
😆 Top of the page of Mordor Media’s flagship. Covid news. I guess another 10 dead NSWalians isn’t news any more.
Graphics from NSW Health for today’s figures. Spot anything missing from the figures ?
NSW recorded 594 new locally acquired cases of #COVID19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.
8:01 AM · Oct 6, 202
C@t
I suspect that Perrottet wants to distance himself from any covid success or failure.
NSW public official addressing covid deaths on 6 October 2021
https://covidlive.com.au/nsw
Hit us, Poroti
Shellbell
with my rhythm stick ?
Another major slapdown for Porter and the Morrison governement: court rules against secret trials on bullshit ‘national security’ pretexts., finding ‘open justice was necessary to deter “political prosecutions”’ https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/06/witness-ks-lawyer-wins-transparency-ruling-as-court-cites-need-to-deter-political-prosecutions
Poroti
Your best shot
The anti-china war machine continues from the West:
Attention ACT people. What is the secret sauce you are using re vaccine rates ? Sept. 4 it was a very respectable 1.4 per 100 people per day. It then went up and up and up to 1.97 per 100 per day by Oct 3. Every other State and Territory looks dismal in comparison.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/oct/04/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-australia-vaccination-rate-progress-how-many-people-vaccinated-percent-tracker-australian-states-number-total-daily-live-data-stats-updates-news-schedule-tracking-chart-percentage-new-cases-today#:~:text=to%20the%20national-,rate,-%3A
poroti
The ACT will embarrass the Cth by showing its estimate of the ACT population is undercooked.
C@t,
We definitely need to get together soon.
Up thread, a Tony Blakely tweet was posted suggested that NSW should be OK opening up at 70%, so I think we can start to make plans.
I am pretty flexible these days, apart from Mondays and Wednesdays, so I will leave it to you and Itza to work out a convenient time.
Quasar, am I correct in thinking that you, like me, are now retired, and fairly close to Centennial Park? We can meet anywhere of course, but in some ways a takeaway baguette / pie / wrap plus coffee, eaten at one of the many picnic tables seems a good way to have a safe, socially distanced meeting. And of course, if the weather is miserable, we can venture inside.
It will definitely not be a farewell for me, just a bon voyage.
We are still working out our post-work life, but moving between Sydney and the south of France has been a very long-term plan. My OH’s mother, who sadly I did not meet because she died young from breast cancer, was from Antibe, but also with strong French South Pacific connections. The family have stayed in touch with their French relatives.
So, we will divide our time between Sydney and France, with a good dash of Ireland.
Oh, and lots of fast train travel. I just love the trains of Western Europe. The Hungarian ones are also fun, but a bit more spartan. Sadly, a lot of the rest of central Europe is now coaches, but they are OK to get from a to b.
The next trip is from Feb to May, with my mum. I have just got back from showing her, using Google maps and street view, where we are going, and describing the trip by little Renault EV from Sainte-Foy to Naples. She is over the moon. It will take abut 20 days, but with car we can stay in cheap places, also away from the crowds.
It would have been nice to do it in summer, but I did not want to wait to long because of possible health problems.
Travel insurance is interesting at her age: Definitely possible, with only feasible with a big excess, but that is how I do all my insurance these days.
Oh, and of course, everyone is welcome when we do have the NSW Pollbludger get-together.
Sometimes we get a bit tetchy with each there here, but that is just, as some have commented, because of the text-only format, without the benefit of non-verbal communication.
In person we will all be fine and polite. and with the “picnic” format, anyone who needs to escape can suddenly “get an urgent phone call” without even needing to work out how much to chuck on the table before fleeing the restaurant!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/10/03/newspoll-53-47-to-labor-10/comment-page-29/#comment-3720499
The ACT has very few poor areas, which tend to have lower vaccination rates.
The ACT has a very high rate of education, which tends to help vaccination rates.
The ACT has a current outbreak, making vaccination a pressing issue for prospective vaccinatees.is geographically compact.
The ACT has a lower rate of low pay essential workers whose jobs reduce the amount of time available for vaccination.
The ACT is run by a competent government.
poroti says:
Wednesday, October 6, 2021 at 4:11 pm
Attention ACT people. What is the secret sauce you are using re vaccine rates ?
—————–
Free snort with every jab. Don’t tell anyone.
A very important message to Lars Von Trier
Anthony Albanese
@AlboMP
·
8h
It’s been more than a thousand days since Scott Morrison announced a National Anti-Corruption Commission and he’s delivered nothing.
Boerwar @ #1315 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 11:08 am
BW.
The Charlie Gutsy wasn’t used in Vietnam not due to Sweden not approving the ammunition but was due to Sweden not supplying the ammunition at all.
Sweden didn’t support the Vietnam war so wouldn’t supply the ammo. Supplies became available again after the end of the war.
In fact the ADF have just started rolling out the latest version.
On a personal note, they were a fun and awesome weapon to use. The old Centurion tank wrecks scattered around the Puckapunyal range wouldn’t have thought so.
I still poke my nose in here now and then, especially when there have been developments such as have occurred in the last week if only to see who starts the latest flame war.
Makes logistics a lot easier.
lefty_e @ #1416 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 2:32 pm
“…necessary to deter political prosecutions.”
Difficult to miss the pointed message there.
Bird species seen from the verandah of our mud brick place on our bush (real, actual, solid bush) block at Bucketty, west of Wyong, NSW, today.
brown cuckoo dove
wonga pigeon
lyre bird
satin bower bird
currawong
cat bird
noisy friar bird
black faced cuckoo shrike
white throated tree creeper
striated thornbill
brown thornbill
eastern spinebill
yellow faced honey eater
white naped honeyeater
white browed honeyeater
lewin’s honeyeater
superb blue wren
also, a nosy, lazy 1 metre goanna
Very good for inner peace.
Regarding vaccination rates and “living with” covid:
(1) To vaccinate every Australian we have to get to 125%, using the currently defined metric for 100%.
(2) Since 12-16 year olds are now able to be vaccinated, are their vaccinations being counted in the total statistic, or separately?
(3) Has anyone seen the modelling that shows how roughly 40% of us being unvaccinated (half of which fraction will supposedly be under 16) affect the spread of this thing?
(4) What is the rate of breakthrough infections?
(5) At the planned “freedom level” of vaccination, what is the median interval before “average person” (ie me) should expect to be exposed to the thing?
——–
Assumptions:
(1) Anyone of any age can catch and transmit this thing.
(2) 20% of Australia’s inhabitants are under 16.
(3) The thing has stopped mutating.
My understanding was that Australian soldiers were issued with American Mark ??? but preferred AK47s which used the American ammunition
The AK47s came from the VC & were handed down to incoming troops. AK47s could be hidden in a rice paddy for years, cleaned and they worked, American guns jammed
Bert
A fine point, accepted.
My point is that leased subs would be subject to the same sort of external limitations on use.
Which reminds me, the Bird of the Year race is a race in 3, even though 15 are left in the running. The Tawny Frogmouth, the Superb Fairy Wren and the Gang Gang Cockatoo,
Bert,
Good to see you still poking your head in. 🙂
National Cabinet agreement was that Australia starts to open up when 70% of eligible* population is double dosed
* eligible == people over 16
==> vaccinated 12 to 16 are bonus
by Feb 2022 children aged 5 to 12 will be able to be vaccinated
Covid has a new variant MU, which originated in Peru this year, which Australia will see next May
@barriecassidy tweets
The federal election campaign has started and this time there’s a real choice. In one of labor’s most marginal seats Corangamite labor has promised an indoor pool on the Bellarine Pen. The Libs have promised an outdoor pool on the same site.
Its over for Scott Morrison
Even the S.A Premier is going against him
Harvey Biggs
@HarveyBiggs
· 4h
South Australia will not be following the Prime Minister’s plan for opening our international border. Premier Steven Marshall says we’ll likely start with a 14 days quarantine for arrivals, & may not open up on the day we hit 80% double dosed.
—————–
So 2 liberal Party state governments are following Labor state/territories
Australia has the best birds. We have Tawny Frogmouths that nest and we think breed in our neighbour’s ageing lilly pilly. Gorgeous things.
Billie at 4.53pm
Not sure what your point of reference is re AK-47 ammunition.
AK-47 fires 7.62x39mm ammunition.
Lots of Aussies in Vietnam used the ‘SLR’ (Self Loading Rifle) which fires 7.62x51mm ammunition. Some Aussies used the M16, which fires 5.56x45mm ammunition.
An AK-47 could be converted to 5.56mm, as that ammunition is a little less powerful than the 7.62×39, but it would be difficult to convert an AK to the much more powerful 7.62×51. Even converting to 5.56mm would require a different barrel and probably different or heavily modified breach (almost a new gun.) Unlikely any AKs in Vietnam fired US ammunition of any kind.
The levels of 12-16 vaccination first doses (FD) are high enough in some jurisdictions the difference between 12+ and 16+ is less than 2%.
Eg in ACT (Cth figures) – 16+ FD = 94.71%
12+ FD = 93.74%
One Nation cancels Southern Cross Austereo?
https://twitter.com/AmyRemeikis/status/1445630518666534923
I left out the Gang Gang. She was there early, before I started writing them down.
The SLR was the Australian variant of the fn fal.
Which reminds me, the Bird of the Year race is a race in 3, even though 15 are left in the running. The Tawny Frogmouth, the Superb Fairy Wren and the Gang Gang Cockatoo,
____
Any one of them would be a worthy winner.
Douglas and Milko,
Thanks for the reply. I’ll keep a look out for Itza and relay back and forth with him. We’ll get there eventually. 🙂
My good days are Thursday, Friday and Saturday. I’m sure we could work something out for next month maybe, before we get overtaken by the circumstances of a possible early election.
I was also thinking that Aqualung and Roy Orbison lived in the general vicinity, even dear old guytaur, and that maybe they would be interested in coming along as well. The more the merrier!
Let’s do this thing, eh! 🙂
All those interested in attending please indicate below:
Or not, if that’s how you feel. 😀
Ven @ #1341 Wednesday, October 6th, 2021 – 12:24 pm
Free range “bin chicken’s” perhaps?
In NSW the number of first doses administered is now up to 89% of the “eligible” population. While only 71% of those eligible to catch the Virus, it is a very good sign. That 89% would all be getting a second dose and they will also want to ensure that their dependant children are vaccinated when they can be. Vaccination rates in two of the “LGA’s of Concern” are over 95%.
What this indicates to me is that vaccination rates over 90%, similar to those for polio, for example, are attainable. While there are worrying pockets of vaccine hesitancy among some indigenous and migrant communities that need to be addressed, vaccine hesitancy is not the problem that it is being made out to be. The issue has always been supply.
https://covidlive.com.au/nsw
November 25th. Lock it in.
This is the reprehensible and outrageous way the PHON operates:
Amy Remeikis
@AmyRemeikis
‘Advertisers abandon Southern Cross Austereo over Pauline Hanson backflip’
The ‘advertisers’ in this story are One Nation. So One Nation has pulled it’s own advertising and then said it was because of cancel culture
Pale blue dot SyringeSyringe
@ofpalebluedot
Good to hear Laura Tingle pointing out that all states & territories have written to the Morrison govt about health funding, not just Queensland. Morrison & Hunt’s attacks on Premier Palaszczuk are beginning to sound unhinged #abc730 #auspol
I don’t know about ‘unhinged’. ‘Evil’ maybe.