Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

No real change from Newspoll, except perhaps to its release schedule.

The Australian has dropped a new Newspoll a fortnight rather than three weeks after the last, perhaps portending a quickening of the schedule as the federal election approaches. Labor’s two-party lead is unchanged at 53-47, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 2% (down one). Scott Morrison is up two on approval to 48% and disapproval to 49%, while Anthony Albanese is steady on 37% and down one to 47%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister edges from 47-35 to 47-34. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1545.

UPDATE: The poll also found 59% approval and 31% disapproval for Australia “building and operating nuclear-powered submarines”, which was put to respondents after an introductory spiel explaining the AUKUS deal. Forty-six per cent felt it would make Australia more secure, compared with 14% less secure and 29% for no difference. Seventy-five per cent rated that China posed a significant threat to Australia’s national security, compared with 15% who did not.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,554 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 32
1 2 32
  1. William, what was it that Newspoll did to compensate for the 2019 election?

    And do you think it possible that they are now overcompensating?

  2. Who knew Lars von Trier uses their undoubted intelligence to be a slimy snake-in-the-grass?

    Me!

    And it’s the seemingly innocuous way they slip the shiv in-between the ribs of their targets. It just oozes slime.

  3. Tedious game. Bring back a proper scrum.

    Switched over to watch the rise of the Indian women’s cricket team playing against an Australian team stacked full of all-rounders. We will never learn.

  4. Penrith played Rugby Union more than they played Rugby League tonight with their quasi rolling maul tackles in reverse. It would be interesting to see how many of the team played Union as well as League. I think the ref should’ve penalised them for it. But it’s probably within the rules.

  5. Tedious game. Bring back a proper scrum.

    Yes.

    And if Souths believe all they have to do to win a GF is play the ball, pass it, and run three metres into a brick wall of defenders for the first five tackles, then kick the ball vaguely upfield on the sixth, no wonder they lost.

  6. Poor Cameron

    PENRITH!!! Delivered tonight!!!
    But the real question is,
    Will LINDSAY deliver in the next 6 months???

    Enjoy the victory!

    While supporting Souths (I really, really wanted to go put pin the street and sing a socially distanced “Glory glory to South Sydney”), I sent congratulations to my two Penrith supporting offspring.

    And while Souths has a similar tale to tell, to hear the Penrith guy talk about their players who grew up in My Druitt and Dunheved made me very proud of the work they have done as a team.

  7. William, what was it that Newspoll did to compensate for the 2019 election?

    And do you think it possible that they are now overcompensating?

    Apart from the name, Newspoll is an entirely new poll now from the one that was being published before the 2019 election. It is now all done online, with no robopolling component, and is weighted by education and household income, whereas previously I believe it was only by age, gender and location. It has come in a bit low for Labor at both the state elections at which it has been tested.

  8. Victoria is in for a bad couple of weeks, QLD and WA will start asking what about us when NSW starts travelling OS, the polls will level up. Strange that a 50/50 result often puts the Coalition in a winning situation. Federally the Coalition rarely leads the polls but always seem to win.

  9. Wow! What a Grand Final that was! Epic contest!!

    Bunnies fans must be devastated, it was there to be won. Poor Reynolds looked absolutely shattered after the match. They can feel proud of their effort but that’s probably the last thing they’ll care about now..

  10. SMH..
    Mr Constance shot to national attention when he delivered a scathing assessment of the Prime Minister’s leadership during the 2019/20 summer bushfires, saying Scott Morrison had received “the welcome he probably deserved” when Cobargo locals heckled him after he arrived to survey the damage.

  11. @Douglas and Milko
    While supporting Souths (I really, really wanted to go put pin the street and sing a socially distanced “Glory glory to South Sydney”), I sent congratulations to my two Penrith supporting offspring.

    HAHA my old man goes for Souths too, I haven’t received a call back from him as yet….

  12. l’Arse, and others. Are you happy that those espousing deranged beliefs that the universe was ‘created’ 7,000 years ago, and that they are going fly up into the sky to ‘heaven’ sometime soon, are making important decisions in relation to your lives, and the survival and well-being of your children and grandchildren? If so, on what possible basis are you happy with that situation? Please set out your reasons.

    Deranged people do not think straight, and are unable to logically evaluate advantageous courses of action in complex situations. It is even worse when they are compulsive liars, like Scott Morrison and many of his co-religionist cabinet colleagues. Why are you happy to be led by such people? Are you, too, sick in the head?

  13. Shellbell

    Tedious game. Bring back a proper scrum.

    Switched over to watch the rise of the Indian women’s cricket team playing against an Australian team stacked full of all-rounders. We will never learn.

    Interesting observation. When I watch cricket, my favourite spectator sport, I might like Australia to win (not quite true, Clive Williams and Viv Richards are still gods), but tonight I cared a lot about the winner of the Souths / Penrith game.

    I was intrigued enough tonight at how much I cared to mention this to OH (who was watching aviations disasters on SBS streaming). He provided no answer (I don’t think he heard me), but this made me think that, in this case, Rugby League was LGA war by other means, and I was staking my loyalty to my LGA.

  14. Rugby league seems more and more a game played between Islanders of various iteration these days. Not saying that’s a bad thing necessarily. They’re such big brutes. A reflection of the western Sydney community but one reminisces about the days of Sterling, Price etc, the slippery, agile guys.

  15. “more deaths under Biden than under Trump”

    Are these individuals for real?

    The description “right wing nut jobs” is confirmed right there

    And under that description “right wing nut jobs” you can identify who the anti vaccination cohort is confirmed by where the greater number of infections and deaths are

    So the Trump cohort

    As we see with the Murdoch inspired right wing nut jobs on the streets of Melbourne and otherwise defying Health Department Orders by socialising as they were last weekend

    Malcolm Fraser saying the Liberal Party is no longer a liberal party, confirmed over past weeks by Banks and the internal inquiry by the West Australian Branch of the Liberal Party into the wipe out of the Liberal Party in WA is further confirmed by the appointment of the Premier elect in NSW

    And Hawke, the convenor of Morrison’s Bible Group which delivers the numbers to Morrison, into the Ministry

    There are flaws in the ALP but, by comparison with what the Liberal Party has become

    Well, I’ll leave it there for others to speculate

  16. Although I’m yet to check the stats, Penrith had possession for the majority of the match . Souths defended well but you don’t win a match by defending. The clincher occurred when Crichton scored an intercept try, which, although these types of tries go against the run of play, are nearly always spectacular to watch. I personally prefer Union but tonight’s match was a cracker.

  17. Zoomster,

    Yep, agree with you on the anti-Andrews article.

    He’s such an evil man? 😆

    I must ask, which one of Andrews’ actions have caused the author to change the way he practices his Christianity?

  18. McGowan quick off the mark re Perrotet
    .
    “I’ve only met him [Mr Perrottet] as treasurer on some of the zoom meetings a couple of times and if he becomes Premier of NSW then I will congratulate him on that,” Mr McGowan said on Sunday……………….“Basically NSW has a terrible set of finances, massive deficits, huge debt. They’ve been very poor financial managers so what they will try and do is blame someone else.

    “[They will say] “It’s Western Australia’s fault” because we get 70 per cent of every dollar we put into GST, somehow that is to blame for NSW’s financial problems. NSW gets something like 96 cents back for every dollar it puts into GST, we get 70 cents back.

    “We need to be vigilant about what states like NSW might do and we won’t cop any undermining of our GST share and we will fight them to the death over it.

    Mr McGowan said he expected NSW to make an attempt to change the share
    https://www.watoday.com.au/national/australia-news-live-vaccine-mandate-likely-for-australian-open-tennis-stars-shorten-backs-jabs-for-mps-20211003-p58wpu.html?post=p52wwx#:~:text=say%5D%20%E2%80%9CIt%E2%80%99s%20Western-,Australia%E2%80%99s,-fault%E2%80%9D%20because%20we

  19. Great Grand Final – a good old-fashioned arm-wrestle. Not to be for the Mighty Rabbitohs – Penrith were the better side and deserved their win, but Souths were very brave in defeat. Just about every 50/50 decision went against us, but we hung in there, and with just a little bit of luck we could have pinched an unlikely win at the death. Still, hard to begrudge the Panthers – half the team grew up playing together, and it’s a great win for western Sydney in what has otherwise been a tough year in that part of the country.

  20. WA is a big quarry that Australia has been riding for decades, yet McGowan thinks his financial management is why WA budget balance sheet is looking good. He could have taken the high ground and still remained hugely popular but decided to be a grub, he is in for some rough times ahead. I suppose he has to start blaming the Feds and other States…he is so far behind in vaccination supply is not an issue and NSW will soon have the freedoms his State does. Somehow Aboriginal vaccination rates in WA will be the fault of others as well, I bet on it

  21. The amusing thing about the Grand Final is that if these states had given into SloMo’s bullying and “learnt to live with the virus”, we’d have had no crowds and possibly no Grand Final either.

  22. Re Newspoll, seems like more of the same – polling seems to have settled into a pattern of LNP 36-38, ALP 35-38, GRN 9-12, others 12-16, with a 2PP of 52-54/ 46-48 to the ALP. Which I’d suggest is broadly good news for Labor, but not so good that the Coalition is out of contention. What we can say is that the pandemic gloss has well and truly come off the Morrison government, and that they will be scrapping for a similarly tight majority as what they won last time. Personally I’d rate Labor slight favourites by about 60/40 at the moment, which is why I think a November elections remains unlikely.

  23. Maybe you can pine for Christian Porter as WA treasurer steely, you know the guy who ran up massive deficits in the middle of a mining boom.

  24. @Poroti
    Basically NSW has a terrible set of finances, massive deficits, huge debt. They’ve been very poor financial managers so what they will try and do is blame someone else.

    What can I say, the Liberal Party can’t handle money, if its federally 1 trillion in debt, NSW, or WA before Labor got in…
    All they do is spend spend spend and there in nothing to show for it…
    Albo should campaign on “who do you trust with the economy”

  25. Well, I was not able to go out into the street and sing “Glory, Glory to South Sydney” (although to barely lose a Grand Final should have still have led to celebration), so I am consoling myself by finding the most interesting renditions of the Battle Hymn of the Republic that I can.

    I think this is a good one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jy6AOGRsR80

  26. Poor Cameronsays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 11:13 pm
    @Poroti
    Basically NSW has a terrible set of finances, massive deficits, huge debt. They’ve been very poor financial managers so what they will try and do is blame someone else.

    What can I say, the Liberal Party can’t handle money, if its federally 1 trillion in debt, NSW, or WA before Labor got in…
    All they do is spend spend spend and there in nothing to show for it…
    Albo should campaign on “who do you trust with the economy”

    Now all you have to do is convince the Australian people they are asked repeatedly who they trust and the Liberal party just aren’t ahead they are light years ahead. Good luck

  27. Boerwar says Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 9:32 pm

    Trump’s believers dying at four or five times the rate of normal people?

    I wonder how long it will be before someone on the right comes out saying that the Democrats are trying to kill of Republicans by not vaccinating them?

  28. But speaking of the Battle Hymn of the Republic, Johnny Cash has a poignant version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzGVlMGhKaE

    I once would not have given Johnny Cash the time of day, him singing country, or western or some such thing.

    But I have learnt to open my ears.

    I work with someone who grew up in the town next to where the Carter family lived, and he has a tale or two to tell.

    Once we all open up again, I am desperate to go on the Appalachian trail, from Washington DC, to New Orleans.

    A friend of mine from school, who I was also at university with, played blue grass. I liked it at the time, but underestimated how important it was as a contribution to musical development.

  29. Interesting that the LNP types only really come out of the woodwork to make general comments about the electoral success of the Coalition over the last few decades. Not so interested in discussing current affairs and policy, for they rarely have any genuine points to make.

  30. If Perrotet becomes NSW Premier I doubt whether the Coalition will survive the next state, or indeed federal election.

    He’s too smug, unlikeable and arrogant for his own good. And he has plenty of skeletons in his closet ripe to be re-examined. I can seriously see, for example, ICARE coming before ICAC.

    Berejiklian deflected a lot of criticism from Perrotet, by dint of her popularity. Without her as a shield, I can’t see him lasting long.

  31. Hugoaugogosays:
    Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 11:10 pm
    Re Newspoll, seems like more of the same – polling seems to have settled into a pattern of LNP 36-38, ALP 35-38, GRN 9-12, others 12-16, with a 2PP of 52-54/ 46-48 to the ALP. Which I’d suggest is broadly good news for Labor, but not so good that the Coalition is out of contention. What we can say is that the pandemic gloss has well and truly come off the Morrison government, and that they will be scrapping for a similarly tight majority as what they won last time. Personally I’d rate Labor slight favourites by about 60/40 at the moment, which is why I think a November elections remains unlikely.

    Yep.

  32. BB

    I agree, the switch from Gladys to Dominic can only have a net negative effect on the Coalition’s electoral prospects. I don’t think Perrotet matches the image the Libs will be going for, as sensible moderates trying to beat Labor at its own game. Quite the opposite, actually.

Comments Page 1 of 32
1 2 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *