We begin with the unusually complicated state of affairs arising from Senate President Scott Ryan’s announcement yesterday that he will retire from politics before parliament resumes next month, having previously planned to do so when his term ends in the middle of next year. The Victorian Liberal Party now has the task of both filling his vacancy and determining its Senate ticket for the coming election, with the latter process having been up in the air due to the lockdown. Candidates for Ryan’s vacancy are reportedly likely to include Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and former state party director, and Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella.
The Coalition secured three long-term Senate positions at the 2016 double dissolution, which went to Mitch Fifield, Bridget McKenzie of the Nationals and Scott Ryan. Fifield quit politics after the 2019 election and his vacancy was filled by Sarah Henderson, lately defeated in her lower house seat of Corangamite. With the second position on the ticket reserved to the Nationals, and hence to McKenzie, Henderson urgently needs to win top spot on the ticket.
Rob Harris of The Age reports that she will probably need a rank-and-file ballot for this to happen, since she is unlikely to win a vote of the administrative committee if it exercises its power to take matters into its own hands. The same apparently applies to Frost in his bid to fill the Ryan vacancy, which would appear to suggest that the administrative committee would pick Mirabella both to fill the immediate vacancy and top the Senate ticket at the election. This would, however, be a hugely contentious move, given resentment over the rank and file being denied preselection ballots before the last election.
Further preselection news:
• Daniel Repacholi, a former coal miner who represented Australia in pistol shooting at the Olympics, was confirmed as Labor’s candidate to succeed Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter by the party’s national executive yesterday. The Australian reports Repacholi “will run as a factionally unaligned candidate but he has the backing of elements of the Right, including Joel Fitzgibbon, and also the Left, including Mr Albanese and the CFMEU”. Preselection hopefuls thwarted by the move include Stephen Ryan, Newcastle barrister and former Cessnock councillor; Morgan Campbell, a former lawyer and local councillor; and Jo Smith, executive director of the Australian Guild of Screen Composers and unsuccessful candidate for Lake Macquarie at the 2019 state election. A late withdrawal was Cessnock nurse Emily Suvaal, whom The Guardian reports had support from Right-aligned unions. The Nationals candidate for the seat is James Thomson, 28-year-old community relations officer at Maitland Christian School; One Nation, who recorded 21.6% of the vote in 2019, have endorsed Singleton hotelier Dale McNamara, who ran for the party at the state by-election for Upper Hunter in May.
• As reported in The Australian, Gordon Reid, a local doctor of Aboriginal heritage, has been preselected unopposed to run as Labor’s candidate for Robertson, held for the Liberals by Lucy Wicks on a margin of 4.2%. The preselection for Reid, held by Fiona Martin on a margin of 3.2%, will be contested between Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer to Jason Clare, and Frank Alafaci, president of the Australian Business Summit Council. In Banks, held by David Coleman on a margin of 6.3%, will be contested between former diplomat Xian-Zhi Soon and Georges River councillor Warren Tegg.
• The West Australian reports Ian Goodenough, Liberal member for the Perth northern suburbs seat of Moore, has won a preselection ballot ahead of Vince Connelly, whose existing seat of Stirling is to be abolished in the redistribution, by a margin of 39 to 36. Goodenough is noted for his support network among local Pentecostal churches, and his association with a broader grouping within the state party known as “The Clan”. The report says Goodenough owed his win to support from Young Liberals and religious conservative powerbroker Nick Goiran. Further contested preselections for the Liberal-held seats of Swan and Durack will follow over the fortnight to come.
• The Greens have announced candidates in the two Melbourne seats they could potentially win from the Liberals: Piers Mitchem, an employment lawyer with corporate law firm Thomson Geer, will run against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, which Julian Burnside came within 5.7% of winning for the party in 2019 after outpolling Labor; while Sonya Semmens, owner-director of a fundraising consultancy, will run against Katie Allen in Higgins.
• Legal academic Kim Rubenstein has cleared the new-and-improved benchmark of 1500 members to register a party called Kim for Canberra in support of her run for an Australian Capital Territory Senate seat.
Other news:
• A uComms automated phone poll of 1057 voters in Canberra, commissioned by of The Australian Institute, records federal voting intention results for the Australian Capital Territory that are strikingly similar to those at the 2019 election. When the results to the forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided are included, the poll shows Labor on 41.1% (up 0.2% on the election), Liberal on 31.3% (down 0.8%) and the Greens on 16.9% (up 0.4%). One Nation, who did not field candidates in 2019 and probably won’t next time either, were on 3.9%. The poll also gauged Senate voting intention, which had Labor on 35.9% (down 3.4%), Liberal on 29.7% (down 2.6%) and the Greens on 21.1% (up 3.5%), with independents on 7.4%, One Nation on 4.0% and others on 1.7%. However, the disparity between the House and Senate results would be typical of an issue to common to Senate polling, which often inflates minor party support. In any case, both suggest the usual result, in which Labor wins the house seats and the two Senate seats divide between Labor and Liberal.
• Also from the Australia Institute, a tidy display of Essential Research COVID-19 polling data, including time series charts of the regular question on federal and state governments’ handling of the situation.
• Final results from the Daly by-election in the Northern Territory: 2022 votes to Labor candidate Dheran Young (56.1%), 1582 to Country Liberal Party candidate Kris Civitarese, for a swing to Labor of 7.3%.
• A federal election preview from Daniel Smith of CGM Communications draws on state-level poll trend calculations I provided, suggesting Labor stands to pick up 13 seats based on the current numbers.
Lurkersays:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:05 pm
My opinion is that there would be few people as capable as Penny Wong in the Parliament. And I cant think of any one more capable than her.
________________
So why was she such a shithouse minister in the Rudd and Gillard govts then.
She got nothing done. Combet had to try and clean up her mess in the climate change portfolio and her performance as finance minister left a lot to be desired.
Thanks ajm 🙂
The anti-vaxxers wouldn’t know what erectile dysfunction is.
Probably think it’s how difficult it is to put up a Christmas tree.
Taylormade @ #952 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 6:00 pm
Assuming that assessment is true, cabinet solidarity?
Guytuar
The Adam Goodes matter was already covered by the racial discrimination act so there is no reason to import Americanism when the law was already on Goodes side.
The anti-vaxxers wouldn’t know what erectile dysfunction is.
____
A lot of them are probably incels and have forgotten what it is.
Taylormade @ #654 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 6:00 pm
It’s a lot harder to conserve Revenue than it is to pork barrel with it and give it away to your mates and donors.
Everything I have read about the Rudd/Gillard government suggests to me she was an excellent minister in two toxic and dysfunctional governments. I don’t have access to your sources though.
On the other hand, no one could argue that she is not forensic and formidable in Estimates.
Looks like the Government will deliver on vaccination (as per the original goal of end of October).
Will be interesting to see where the opinion polls are in December once we re-open.
Lurker says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:14 pm
Everything I have read about the Rudd/Gillard government suggests to me she was an excellent minister in two toxic and dysfunctional governments. I don’t have access to your sources though.
On the other hand, no one could argue that she is not forensic and formidable in Estimates.
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Yes she’s a likely retirement if Albo falls short. One of the few who could pursue an alternate career outside parliament at 52
Once we are out of these lock downs, Labor will be able to tally up the amount of economic damage and destruction that Scotty from marketing has caused. Should be a fun reminder for all who have been suffering under lock downs for the last 3 months.
Morrison says he still has a lot to do before an election.
I hope that doesn’t include pushing through the mutual obligation legislation or other nasties dreamt up by Brother Stuart.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:19 pm
“ One of the few who could pursue an alternate career outside parliament at 52”
As what? A professional annoyance? Smug comments Consultant?
The Chief Minister was asked a question regarding this. He said that the ACT did not intend to try and limit the movements of a PM.
Bucephalus says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:25 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:19 pm
“ One of the few who could pursue an alternate career outside parliament at 52”
As what? A professional annoyance? Smug comments Consultant?
_______________
Lol.
Buce
Considering the lack of talent of ex LNP ministers who have landed cushy jobs and Board positions, I don’t think you have a good case there.
I’m sure the people of Sydney and Melbourne will be looking to chair Morrison through the streets, throwing petals in his path, as heartfelt thanks for how he so well has handled the pandemic.
Those Cave Dwellers, on the other hand, can go and get fucked with their closed borders and ALP badged Premiers….
Lars,
Did you think you have the Exclusive Franchise?
Rudd and Gillard had ordinary ministers but Penny Wong wasn’t one of them.
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:15 pm
Looks like the Government will deliver on vaccination (as per the original goal of end of October).
____________________-
Lars Von Trier is incorrect again
The original goal was up to 90% Fully vaccinated Australians (Adults and Children)
the federal government is well behind
52% of the adult are fully vaccinated
the vaccination of Children are no where near , it is supposed to be on the original goal
Let’s see:
Militaristic Posing & War Noises – tick
Conspicuous Climate Change Conversion – tick
Vaccine & Freedom Day – coming soon
Scrotto is lining up his ducks.
I like that Penny Wong doesn’t tolerate fools. How do you think she would treat you Buce?
Sprocket
Don’t forget 2 of those Premiers are badged as Liberal
One faces an election in the new year
Crosby/Textor are masters at their craft.
On this occasion, however, they have been dealt a dud hand and an even dudder front man…
nath,
The same as she would treat you!
Actually scott – its all on the guardian vaccine tracker page.
On the Guardian’s terms (and lets face not exactly lib friendly) – the Libs will have delivered on vaccines as promised.
Mexican
I’d like to show my appreciation for your attempts to straighten out misconceptions about Aus v. USA today.
Shut up GG. When I want to hear from you I will ring a bell.
Says the man who’s done SFA for the country when it comes to reducing our COVID risk. The feds had 3 jobs and they’ve failed at every one of them:
– stop the cruise liners
– protect the aged care sector
– vaccinate Australians
Morrison and cronies have broken their original goal of
Australians who were overseas would be back in Australia by Christmas 2020
Australians were amongst the first in the world to received vaccinations
4 million Australians to be vaccinated beyond of March 2021
upto 90% Australians to be fully vaccinated in October 2021
citizen says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:27 pm
“The Chief Minister was asked a question regarding this. He said that the ACT did not intend to try and limit the movements of a PM.”
Which wasn’t answering the question. The PM needs permission from the States and Territories under the current travel authorisation arrangements.
nath,
If you want to play here dickhead, you’ll hear fro me at the time of my choosing.
If you can’t handle that kindly fuck off!
You’ll have to forget all the promises this government has broken on vaccines, in order to actually think the current promise actually means anything.
nath, GG is one of the better commenters from the Southern Capital – you should be able to learn from his style
(your contributions do need some improvement, just sayin)
Canavan should put his money where his mouth is and go it alone before he’s up for re-election.
Nicko @ #985 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 6:41 pm
Exactly. You can’t trust a bloody thing the man says, so why would anyone start doing so now.
Lurker says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:33 pm
The one time I met her it was professional and cordial as I always am in those situations.
“Markie Mark is doing a crap job at getting WA vaccinated. Letting the country down.”
Demand an election. Get one of those generals you talk to on it immediately. Can Basil help?
An action man would do something about it, not just spend his Sunday afternoon whining about it on a blog. You know I’m right.
Bucephalus says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:43 pm
Lurker says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:33 pm
The one time I met her it was professional and cordial as I always am in those situations.
_______________
What is her coffee order if you don’t mind telling?
sprocket_ says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:35 pm
So dud that he lost the last election. Apparently.
sprocket,
nath is petrified that WB will finally get round to pissing him off again for being a sock puppet one more time.
He’s a serial loser.
Yeah, Nath – quit defending Penny Wong, you troll.
More bizarre rules from Gladys’ #mockdown: unvaccinated people unable to enjoy outdoor picnics, but are allowed to enjoy outdoor pools from tomorrow.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-too-risky-pools-to-reopen-amid-community-concern-20210926-p58uv1.html
I don’t think the state premiers will be as docile now as they were when they hoped for cash from Scotty
Lars Von Trier says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:36 pm
Actually scott – its all on the guardian vaccine tracker page.
On the Guardian’s terms (and lets face not exactly lib friendly) – the Libs will have delivered on vaccines as promised.
————-
Here is the original Morrison and Hunts goal
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-scott-morrison-original-timetable/100342474
They have failed
Does anyone know the number of the Australian Government Department of Health so I can ask them why they have not updated their vaccination figures so I can jot them down on a piece of paper no one will read and which I will eventually recycle?
David Rowe comments on the banjo players…
Maroubra to Zetland would be more than 5km? But in any case, it doesn’t matter because the rules aren’t enforced anyway.
WB,
You now embrace sock puppets as core business?
Asking for a friend who has standards.
LVT
“On the Guardian’s terms (and lets face not exactly lib friendly) – the Libs will have delivered on vaccines as promised.”
Yes, and only 6 months behind! In geological time, that’s not even the blink of an eye!