We begin with the unusually complicated state of affairs arising from Senate President Scott Ryan’s announcement yesterday that he will retire from politics before parliament resumes next month, having previously planned to do so when his term ends in the middle of next year. The Victorian Liberal Party now has the task of both filling his vacancy and determining its Senate ticket for the coming election, with the latter process having been up in the air due to the lockdown. Candidates for Ryan’s vacancy are reportedly likely to include Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and former state party director, and Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella.
The Coalition secured three long-term Senate positions at the 2016 double dissolution, which went to Mitch Fifield, Bridget McKenzie of the Nationals and Scott Ryan. Fifield quit politics after the 2019 election and his vacancy was filled by Sarah Henderson, lately defeated in her lower house seat of Corangamite. With the second position on the ticket reserved to the Nationals, and hence to McKenzie, Henderson urgently needs to win top spot on the ticket.
Rob Harris of The Age reports that she will probably need a rank-and-file ballot for this to happen, since she is unlikely to win a vote of the administrative committee if it exercises its power to take matters into its own hands. The same apparently applies to Frost in his bid to fill the Ryan vacancy, which would appear to suggest that the administrative committee would pick Mirabella both to fill the immediate vacancy and top the Senate ticket at the election. This would, however, be a hugely contentious move, given resentment over the rank and file being denied preselection ballots before the last election.
Further preselection news:
• Daniel Repacholi, a former coal miner who represented Australia in pistol shooting at the Olympics, was confirmed as Labor’s candidate to succeed Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter by the party’s national executive yesterday. The Australian reports Repacholi “will run as a factionally unaligned candidate but he has the backing of elements of the Right, including Joel Fitzgibbon, and also the Left, including Mr Albanese and the CFMEU”. Preselection hopefuls thwarted by the move include Stephen Ryan, Newcastle barrister and former Cessnock councillor; Morgan Campbell, a former lawyer and local councillor; and Jo Smith, executive director of the Australian Guild of Screen Composers and unsuccessful candidate for Lake Macquarie at the 2019 state election. A late withdrawal was Cessnock nurse Emily Suvaal, whom The Guardian reports had support from Right-aligned unions. The Nationals candidate for the seat is James Thomson, 28-year-old community relations officer at Maitland Christian School; One Nation, who recorded 21.6% of the vote in 2019, have endorsed Singleton hotelier Dale McNamara, who ran for the party at the state by-election for Upper Hunter in May.
• As reported in The Australian, Gordon Reid, a local doctor of Aboriginal heritage, has been preselected unopposed to run as Labor’s candidate for Robertson, held for the Liberals by Lucy Wicks on a margin of 4.2%. The preselection for Reid, held by Fiona Martin on a margin of 3.2%, will be contested between Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer to Jason Clare, and Frank Alafaci, president of the Australian Business Summit Council. In Banks, held by David Coleman on a margin of 6.3%, will be contested between former diplomat Xian-Zhi Soon and Georges River councillor Warren Tegg.
• The West Australian reports Ian Goodenough, Liberal member for the Perth northern suburbs seat of Moore, has won a preselection ballot ahead of Vince Connelly, whose existing seat of Stirling is to be abolished in the redistribution, by a margin of 39 to 36. Goodenough is noted for his support network among local Pentecostal churches, and his association with a broader grouping within the state party known as “The Clan”. The report says Goodenough owed his win to support from Young Liberals and religious conservative powerbroker Nick Goiran. Further contested preselections for the Liberal-held seats of Swan and Durack will follow over the fortnight to come.
• The Greens have announced candidates in the two Melbourne seats they could potentially win from the Liberals: Piers Mitchem, an employment lawyer with corporate law firm Thomson Geer, will run against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, which Julian Burnside came within 5.7% of winning for the party in 2019 after outpolling Labor; while Sonya Semmens, owner-director of a fundraising consultancy, will run against Katie Allen in Higgins.
• Legal academic Kim Rubenstein has cleared the new-and-improved benchmark of 1500 members to register a party called Kim for Canberra in support of her run for an Australian Capital Territory Senate seat.
Other news:
• A uComms automated phone poll of 1057 voters in Canberra, commissioned by of The Australian Institute, records federal voting intention results for the Australian Capital Territory that are strikingly similar to those at the 2019 election. When the results to the forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided are included, the poll shows Labor on 41.1% (up 0.2% on the election), Liberal on 31.3% (down 0.8%) and the Greens on 16.9% (up 0.4%). One Nation, who did not field candidates in 2019 and probably won’t next time either, were on 3.9%. The poll also gauged Senate voting intention, which had Labor on 35.9% (down 3.4%), Liberal on 29.7% (down 2.6%) and the Greens on 21.1% (up 3.5%), with independents on 7.4%, One Nation on 4.0% and others on 1.7%. However, the disparity between the House and Senate results would be typical of an issue to common to Senate polling, which often inflates minor party support. In any case, both suggest the usual result, in which Labor wins the house seats and the two Senate seats divide between Labor and Liberal.
• Also from the Australia Institute, a tidy display of Essential Research COVID-19 polling data, including time series charts of the regular question on federal and state governments’ handling of the situation.
• Final results from the Daly by-election in the Northern Territory: 2022 votes to Labor candidate Dheran Young (56.1%), 1582 to Country Liberal Party candidate Kris Civitarese, for a swing to Labor of 7.3%.
• A federal election preview from Daniel Smith of CGM Communications draws on state-level poll trend calculations I provided, suggesting Labor stands to pick up 13 seats based on the current numbers.
My opinion is that there would be few people as capable as Penny Wong in the Parliament. And I cant think of any one more capable than her.
The vilification of Labor by the Greens is nothing new. This is Green Labor-phobia, as we see 24/7 here, there and everywhere. The Greens are perennial hate-makers. This latest has persuaded me to put them second-or-third-last on my ballots…just above ON and UAP. They are utterly sick-making. They have no place in the Parliament.
“Just like the low bar for Ministerial Standards that the Coalition sets, The Greens set a very low bar for racial abuse.”
***
That tweet in reply to Tu Le that I shared before was most certainly racist abuse…
Firefox2 @ Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 3:57 pm
Well, I tried. Consideration on how systemic sexism (as well as racism and other forms of discrimination) can manifest through the behaviours of even those with the best of intentions is obviously a bridge too far at present. I shall leave it there.
If they keep danging carrots at the lemmings and then taking it away, moving it miles ahead – I dont think they understand what I feel will happen.
I’ve been a believer in what we have been told, got vaxxed, laughed at all the antivaxers … but that belief is disappearing rapidly.
Firefox2 @ #883 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 1:39 pm
So 65% of Labor Senators are female whilst 43% of Members of the House of Reps are female.
Pretty easy to get to 50% in the Senate, you just need a willing Party.
In the House Labor’s main problem is the number of women in marginal seats. Of them 55% are held by women. So it is important to get more women into safe seats otherwise this number could be effected dramatically by a bad election result.
N says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:06 pm
The vilification of Labor by the Greens is nothing new. This is Green Labor-phobia, as we see 24/7 here, there and everywhere. The Greens are perennial hate-makers.
_______
perennial hate-makers are the worst!
Redlands Mowerman @ #905 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 4:15 pm
That’ll be Bill Gates taking over your mind
I did say IIRC.
However, WA, did grant exemptions to Fed MPs.
So, not so much political wind.
Greens gone to Gender wars… How pathetic.
“I shall leave it there.”
***
That’s probably for the best as you aren’t making a whole lot of sense to me. You don’t have to listen to what I think about it if you don’t want but please listen to the people who are on the receiving end. This is a very real issue and it needs to be spoken about and addressed. Sweeping it under the carpet only allows it to continue.
“Greens gone to Gender wars… How pathetic.”
***
Speaking of wars, why are you supporting the warmongering against China by supporting Labor?
“In the House Labor’s main problem is the number of women in marginal seats. Of them 55% are held by women. So it is important to get more women into safe seats otherwise this number could be effected dramatically by a bad election result.”
***
Labor isn’t quite there yet but they are going much better these days than the Libs that’s for sure. The Coalition are still in the the Stone Age when it comes to sexism and discrimination.
guytaur @ #889 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 1:50 pm
So?
How did this have anything to do with creating Australian Rules Football?
Firefox2 says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:22 pm
UK+Australia+USA is asking for a war.
Firefox2 @ #914 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 2:24 pm
Of course Labor is making much better progress in the House than the Greens who have been stuck on 100% male for quite some time.
Barney
You need to read the article again. Racism culture at the heart of the AFL.
It’s an ugly truth. The AFL is not divorced from the culture at the time of creation.
“UK+Australia+USA is asking for a war.”
***
Yes they are. We are putting ourselves in a very dangerous position. I know you do not support warmongering against China. So do you think Labor should be supporting it? Remember the fact that Labor agrees with the AUKUS deal and that support for close military ties with America has bipartisan support from Labor and the Coalition. Why are you supporting a party that is going totally against your own repeatedly stated beliefs?
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2016/August/The_gender_composition_of_the_45th_parliament
Greens have 50 total, Labor has 44 total.
Greens making a biggest deal out of the smallest percentage.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:29 pm
There is little point in reasoning with Firefox2. “There’s none so blind as they that won’t see.”
“Of course Labor is making much better progress in the House than the Greens who have been stuck on 100% male for quite some time.”
***
We’re working on changing that soon, don’t you worry! But the fact remains that there are two houses of parliament and the Greens have achieved 50/50 across them.
Guytaur,
You might consider some sceptical analysis of the breathless article on the subject of Wills, before joining the ABC and the Conversation contributor in a rush to judgment.
For your consideration:
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/tom-wills-remains-a-major-figure-in-australian-history-20210924-p58uih.html
https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/almanac-footy-tom-wills-a-bit-of-care-is-necessary/
guytaur @ #918 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 2:33 pm
😆 😆 😆
You really are a logically challenged person.
Firefox2 @ #922 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 2:36 pm
So much progress!
😆 😆 😆
“So much progress!”
***
Indeed! Much progress has been made in this regard. The groundwork has been laid. The establishment is trembling at it’s very foundations. The left is on the rise.
Barney
No you are. We just have to see how Adam Goodes has been treated in this more enlightened age to understand how such a culture impacts people.
We know that culture has been here for over a century. It’s in the words of the constitution. We now have a view some really don’t like being presented about the founder of the AFL.
That’s all culture. It’s the same culture we see in the US. It’s the same culture we see in NZ and Canada.
That’s not coincidence.
guytaur @ #927 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 2:50 pm
You have lost the plot.
That has nothing to do with the game, that is a reflection of the society in which the game exists.
“ Reid looks like its now a safe LNP seat.
Banks and Lindsey look more likely for the ALP.”
What? Reid saw a swing to Labor. I think the margin is under 3%. A good candidate plus a national swing will see it fall. That’s been the trend in that seat (it used to be called Lowe) since Billy McMahon resigned.
Men may be six times more likely to develop brief or long-term erectile dysfunction after contracting the virus. The vaccine can prevent this.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/covid-19-may-impair-mens-sexual-performance
So if Darren Chester is not going to the Nationals party room but still supporting the government, does he just go for a walk at party meeting time?
I get it; he thinks the party has gone of the deep end (a conclusion many other made a long time ago) and really wants nothing to do with them. But is his protest going to make an ounce of difference? Nope. Not a nadir.
B.S. Fairman @ #931 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 3:03 pm
I don’t think it’s meant to be seen as a protest, rather assessing his own future and what he wants to do at the next election.
Lizzie
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/covid-19-may-impair-mens-sexual-performance
Thanks I was going to post that too. At last, a vaccination message that cuts through to tradie blokes. Long covid may not mean what they think 🙂
“Men may be six times more likely to develop brief or long-term erectile dysfunction after contracting the virus. The vaccine can prevent this.”
***
We should do a remake of that old RTA add that shamed men for speeding and instead shame them for not getting vaxxed…
Anti-vaxxers.
No one thinks big of you.
That’ll get ’em lining up for their shot quick smart! lol
lizzie says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 5:02 pm
The amount of people I’ve noticed who don’t give a shit, they just want their freedom. No matter the sacrifice of other people.
N @ #865 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 3:04 pm
You know what? As long as it drives you bugfuck, I don’t believe I will 🙂
Griff @ #624 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 4:34 pm
You have figured that out. 🙂
He has a nasty streak with it. A zealot.
GOP-led review of Arizona ballots reaffirms Biden’s win
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gop-led-review-arizona-ballots-reaffirms-bidens-win/story?id=80211960
Nearly 11 months after Joe Biden was elected president, the GOP-led review of Arizona’s Maricopa County ballots has found no substantial deviation from the vote count reported by the county that helped clinch the win for Biden.
The review’s count was within a “few hundred” of the county’s total, according to Republican Senate President Karen Fann. Cyber Ninjas CEO Doug Logan reported that former President Donald Trump had 261 fewer votes than the county’s official canvass gave him, while Biden had 99 more.
Lurker
“My opinion is that there would be few people as capable as Penny Wong in the Parliament. And I cant think of any one more capable than her.”
+1
Nice comparison charts by Casey Briggs
I love graphs, @sprocket.
“He has a nasty streak with it. A zealot.”
***
Sigh. Oh well, at least I’m not a racist…
If I’m a zealot, what does that make you? Never mind. Rhetorical question.
I’m proud to be a passionate progressive and don’t shy away from that.
Lurker says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:05 pm
“My opinion is that there would be few people as capable as Penny Wong in the Parliament. And I cant think of any one more capable than her.”
Shouldn’t she be the Leader of the Opposition then?
Markie Mark is doing a crap job at getting WA vaccinated. Letting the country down.
C@tmomma @ Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 5:20 pm
I see it differently. I see no malice. Just a rigidity in thinking. That can occur across the political spectrum. Myself included 🙂
Bucephalus says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 5:33 pm
Lurker says:
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 4:05 pm
“My opinion is that there would be few people as capable as Penny Wong in the Parliament. And I cant think of any one more capable than her.”
Shouldn’t she be the Leader of the Opposition then?
_____________
It would have been fine by me if she was. Fortunately for me, I have a high opinion of Albo so it’s not a great concern of mine.
Good to see the 12-15s are being vaccinated quickly so we can look at max 85% vaccination coverage rate.
My initial hope was we might hit 85% of 85% fully vaccinated or 72.5% whole population – NSW and ACT are close to this figure with their first doses with plenty of 12 to 15s still to do. Put another way both are 70%+ whole population vaccination which gets them up into that top league when dose 2 is done.
“I see it differently. I see no malice. Just a rigidity in thinking.”
***
Indeed, there is no malice between you or I. 🙂
Aqualung @ #796 Sunday, September 26th, 2021 – 1:18 pm
Thank you. ‘Twas I