Many preselections

Scott Ryan’s retirement brings the Victorian Liberal Senate preselection to a boil; Labor lines up its ducks in New South Wales; a federal voting intention poll from the ACT; and much more besides.

We begin with the unusually complicated state of affairs arising from Senate President Scott Ryan’s announcement yesterday that he will retire from politics before parliament resumes next month, having previously planned to do so when his term ends in the middle of next year. The Victorian Liberal Party now has the task of both filling his vacancy and determining its Senate ticket for the coming election, with the latter process having been up in the air due to the lockdown. Candidates for Ryan’s vacancy are reportedly likely to include Simon Frost, staffer to Josh Frydenberg and former state party director, and Greg Mirabella, Wangaratta farmer and husband of Sophie Mirabella.

The Coalition secured three long-term Senate positions at the 2016 double dissolution, which went to Mitch Fifield, Bridget McKenzie of the Nationals and Scott Ryan. Fifield quit politics after the 2019 election and his vacancy was filled by Sarah Henderson, lately defeated in her lower house seat of Corangamite. With the second position on the ticket reserved to the Nationals, and hence to McKenzie, Henderson urgently needs to win top spot on the ticket.

Rob Harris of The Age reports that she will probably need a rank-and-file ballot for this to happen, since she is unlikely to win a vote of the administrative committee if it exercises its power to take matters into its own hands. The same apparently applies to Frost in his bid to fill the Ryan vacancy, which would appear to suggest that the administrative committee would pick Mirabella both to fill the immediate vacancy and top the Senate ticket at the election. This would, however, be a hugely contentious move, given resentment over the rank and file being denied preselection ballots before the last election.

Further preselection news:

• Daniel Repacholi, a former coal miner who represented Australia in pistol shooting at the Olympics, was confirmed as Labor’s candidate to succeed Joel Fitzgibbon in Hunter by the party’s national executive yesterday. The Australian reports Repacholi “will run as a factionally unaligned candidate but he has the backing of elements of the Right, including Joel Fitzgibbon, and also the Left, including Mr Albanese and the CFMEU”. Preselection hopefuls thwarted by the move include Stephen Ryan, Newcastle barrister and former Cessnock councillor; Morgan Campbell, a former lawyer and local councillor; and Jo Smith, executive director of the Australian Guild of Screen Composers and unsuccessful candidate for Lake Macquarie at the 2019 state election. A late withdrawal was Cessnock nurse Emily Suvaal, whom The Guardian reports had support from Right-aligned unions. The Nationals candidate for the seat is James Thomson, 28-year-old community relations officer at Maitland Christian School; One Nation, who recorded 21.6% of the vote in 2019, have endorsed Singleton hotelier Dale McNamara, who ran for the party at the state by-election for Upper Hunter in May.

• As reported in The Australian, Gordon Reid, a local doctor of Aboriginal heritage, has been preselected unopposed to run as Labor’s candidate for Robertson, held for the Liberals by Lucy Wicks on a margin of 4.2%. The preselection for Reid, held by Fiona Martin on a margin of 3.2%, will be contested between Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer to Jason Clare, and Frank Alafaci, president of the Australian Business Summit Council. In Banks, held by David Coleman on a margin of 6.3%, will be contested between former diplomat Xian-Zhi Soon and Georges River councillor Warren Tegg.

• The West Australian reports Ian Goodenough, Liberal member for the Perth northern suburbs seat of Moore, has won a preselection ballot ahead of Vince Connelly, whose existing seat of Stirling is to be abolished in the redistribution, by a margin of 39 to 36. Goodenough is noted for his support network among local Pentecostal churches, and his association with a broader grouping within the state party known as “The Clan”. The report says Goodenough owed his win to support from Young Liberals and religious conservative powerbroker Nick Goiran. Further contested preselections for the Liberal-held seats of Swan and Durack will follow over the fortnight to come.

• The Greens have announced candidates in the two Melbourne seats they could potentially win from the Liberals: Piers Mitchem, an employment lawyer with corporate law firm Thomson Geer, will run against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, which Julian Burnside came within 5.7% of winning for the party in 2019 after outpolling Labor; while Sonya Semmens, owner-director of a fundraising consultancy, will run against Katie Allen in Higgins.

• Legal academic Kim Rubenstein has cleared the new-and-improved benchmark of 1500 members to register a party called Kim for Canberra in support of her run for an Australian Capital Territory Senate seat.

Other news:

• A uComms automated phone poll of 1057 voters in Canberra, commissioned by of The Australian Institute, records federal voting intention results for the Australian Capital Territory that are strikingly similar to those at the 2019 election. When the results to the forced-response follow-up for the initially undecided are included, the poll shows Labor on 41.1% (up 0.2% on the election), Liberal on 31.3% (down 0.8%) and the Greens on 16.9% (up 0.4%). One Nation, who did not field candidates in 2019 and probably won’t next time either, were on 3.9%. The poll also gauged Senate voting intention, which had Labor on 35.9% (down 3.4%), Liberal on 29.7% (down 2.6%) and the Greens on 21.1% (up 3.5%), with independents on 7.4%, One Nation on 4.0% and others on 1.7%. However, the disparity between the House and Senate results would be typical of an issue to common to Senate polling, which often inflates minor party support. In any case, both suggest the usual result, in which Labor wins the house seats and the two Senate seats divide between Labor and Liberal.

• Also from the Australia Institute, a tidy display of Essential Research COVID-19 polling data, including time series charts of the regular question on federal and state governments’ handling of the situation.

• Final results from the Daly by-election in the Northern Territory: 2022 votes to Labor candidate Dheran Young (56.1%), 1582 to Country Liberal Party candidate Kris Civitarese, for a swing to Labor of 7.3%.

• A federal election preview from Daniel Smith of CGM Communications draws on state-level poll trend calculations I provided, suggesting Labor stands to pick up 13 seats based on the current numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,085 comments on “Many preselections”

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  2. “I like that Penny Wong doesn’t tolerate fools. How do you think she would treat you Buce?”

    ***

    Yeah it probably won’t surprise you that Wong is one of my favourite Labor pollies. It would be a much better party if there were more people like her in it.

    She and Sarah Hanson-Young are a lot alike in the way they don’t tolerate fools or take BS from anyone.

  3. “As what? A professional annoyance? Smug comments Consultant?”

    You could give her a few tips, Bucephalus. Career advice from an expert.

  4. Here is another point which shows Morrison and his cronies incompetence of breaking their promise

    It is, however, wrong to suggest Australia would be in exactly the same predicament had the government been on track to achieve its original vaccination target.

    Had the government delivered on its original timetable, Australia would almost certainly have been in a much stronger position, with shorter lockdowns and less draconian measures needed to quash the virus.

  5. Scott says:
    Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:50 pm

    But will it matter to the voters? Is the Victorian Lockdown being mandated by the Federal LNP or the Victorian ALP. Is WA’s low number of lockdowns because of Markie Mark or the PM? Same for Tasmania or SA. How do you interpret voting intentions?

  6. No Kakuru – the original goal was end of October for the adult population to be vaccinated – and here we are in late September nearly done in ACT/VIC/NSW.

  7. “Is the Victorian Lockdown being mandated by the Federal LNP or the Victorian ALP.”

    ***

    Who’s responsible for the lockdown that all of us here in Gladystan are under?

  8. Scott:

    It’s obvious to anyone who is paying attention that had the feds got the lead out sooner on the vaccine rollout Gladys’ mockdown response to Delta wouldn’t have been as deadly or as costly as it has been.

    But Morrison and Hunt took a stroll in the park, rejecting offers from Pfizer and goodness knows what other vaccine manufacturers, and here we are. The Morrison govt is as much to blame for Australia’s Delta outbreak as the Berejiklian govt is.

  9. Bucephalus says:
    Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 6:55 pm


    But will it matter to the voters? Is the Victorian Lockdown being mandated by the Federal LNP or the Victorian ALP. Is WA’s low number of lockdowns because of Markie Mark or the PM? Same for Tasmania or SA. How do you interpret voting intentions?

    ————–

    Morrison and his cronies if the Federal election is in 2022 they will likely regret it, due to them breaking their original promises

    There will still be lockdowns and border closures ,

  10. I for one am eternally grateful that Kevin Rudd single handedly got Pfizer vaccine for the nation – and leaked / backgrounded details to the media accordingly.

  11. Scotty said 4 Million vaccinated by March!!!
    According to Scotty we were at the front of the pack when it came to Vaccinations!!
    Scotty snubbed the chance to get first dibs at Pfizer!
    But also Scotty said it wasnt a race.

  14. The only winner at the last election was Lucky Bill Shorten.
    Shorten is looking good, relaxed and ready to go.
    The best performer from the political class over the year.
    Has had a Royal Commission to back his integrity and didn’t cut and run after the last election.
    Nath, wherever he is, will have few teeth after grinding away for an eternity and still choking on his obsessive hatred.
    Must be carrying a big hurt that boy.

  16. I for one will be eternally grateful for Scott Morrison single handedly entering Australian into a new cold war and leaked/backgrounded the media accordingly.

  18. Via Confessions:

    Peter Brent@mumbletwits·
    27m
    Whether Chester would win as an independent, getting >50% after preferences in Gippsland, is, well, an interesting question.
    But for sure Canavan is barely known in Queensland (let alone the rest of the country) and would not on his own get close to 14.3% quota after preferences.

    Canavan should put his money where his mouth is and go it alone before he’s up for re-election.

    The state seat of Morwell is about half of Gippsland, and the sitting MP there quit the Nats and got re-elected as an independent in 2018. (With one of the lowest primary votes in the history of elections, but a win’s a win.) Most of the rest of the seat is East Gippsland, which also had an independent MP from 1999-2010. Either Chester quitting the Nats or running / winning as an indie are longshots, but it’s certainly possible.

    Canavan’s a senator, so he’s just about invisible. He grew up on the Gold Coast / southern Brisbane, but apparently lives in Yeppoon these days (thank you Wikipedia). Maybe he could run for Capricornia? 50% there is, uhh… less impossible than 14.3% across the whole state.

  19. Buce, we are all eager as anything for everyone to be vaccinated, the pandemic to subside, and everything to get back to normal. Make no mistake about that.

    It would allow the Liberals to get back to their signature rorting, mates deals, abysmal diplomacy and Murdoch acquiescence..

  20. So Morrison’s demanding the states & territories start opening up at a 70% vaccination rate; fully, at 80%. He’s got no effing say in it, the HC decision in Palmer v. WA confirming that premiers and chief ministers have more than plenty of leeway re. C19 management.

    So if CHO Young, for example, informs Palaszczuk that opening Queensland’s borders would result in higher infection rates, hospitalisations, deaths, there’s no way that she’d bow to Morrison’s wish for everyone to have a Merry Christmas. He’s impotent as regards this & he knows it, the intrepid deputy premier (Miles) highlighting same today.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-26/qld-coronavirus-covid-miles-morrison-distraction/100489990

    An aside, Miles would do very well in Canberra, after a brief stint as premier, when Palaszczuk pulls the pin. He gives no quarter and really knows how to get up the noses of his Tory & Country parties’ opponents.

  22. I had the displeasure of listening to Jane Norman’s story on COVID-19 during this evening’s 7pm ABC news, and lodged the following complaint on the ABC website…

    “At the conclusion of her story on COVID-19, Jane Norman used words to the effect of (presumable Australians) looking forward to opening up and ‘living like the rest of the world.’ Does Ms Norman not understand that the USA is closing in on 700,000 COVID-19 deaths? That many other countries are experiencing hundreds and even thousands of deaths per day? That jurisdictions such as Singapore are reimposing some restrictions to combat fresh outbreaks? Her throwaway comment was, at best, thoughtless, and, at worst, pro-Coalition propaganda in support of PM Morrison’s ‘cave-dweller’ criticism of certain State Governments. Ms Norman’s comments could have been neutral, if she had avoided comparison with ‘the rest of the world’ and couched them in terms of ‘opening up safely.’ Instead, she leaves herself vulnerable to accusations of bias.”

    I encourage other Bludgers to pile on (preferably the ABC, not so much me, about which I won’t care.) I view complaining as a way of dragging the organisation away from being ‘their ABC.’

  23. Darren Chester might benefit from a local media profile and the electoral cycle that is trending away from the government so he has a strong chance of being reelected.

  24. I would expect that Darren Chester would win Gippsland as an independent if he chose to contest it as one. Would probably only need ~20% of primaries, as virtually everyone in the field would preference him against the Nationals in that scenario.

  26. Snappy Tom
    People like Jane Norman are only looking at the fun scenes of packed sports crowds and pubs but ignores the darker side of reopening. Jane Norman wouldn’t be thinking about how many people had died from it because they are not in her world and she just wants to do the things she cares about.

  30. Also Morrison and his cronies are responsible for Australia’s longest border closure, Morrison has claimed Australia’s International borders been closed since March2020

  31. Lizzie

    Blame the LNP. They cut local content provisions.
    However remember our laws are only going so far and yes we too share systemic problems with discrimination.

    That’s why we have such laws. The Americans are trying to join us with their Equality Act. I have forgotten the formal name of all of them but they have started down the path with laws like the Mathew Shepard Act.

    They are of course more constrained than we are because of their First Amendement.

    It’s a long way from objecting to the term People of Colour. I personally think that’s one of the less egregious examples of importing US terms.

  32. @sprocket – indeed.

    I want to be open as soon as possible. But we know there’s going to be thousands of cases once that happens – it’s the severity of those cases and the health system’s capacity to deal with it that matters. But let me tell you, not matter how successful the re-opening, Morrison and Gladys will not receive an ounce of thanks from me – just an almighty sigh of relief.

  33. Mexicanbeemer:

    Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 7:40 pm

    [‘Darren Chester might benefit from a local media profile and the electoral cycle that is trending away from the government so he has a strong chance of being reelected.’]

    For a Tory, Chester is a gentleman, very well regarded in veterans’ circles. It was a travesty that a man who has few scruples – Joyce – was responsible for his demotion. And reading between the lines, I strongly suspect that he won’t recontest, evidenced inter alia by his decision not to attend the Country Party caucus for at least a month. I get the feeling he can’t cope with being in the same room as Joyce, Canavan, Christensen. The Country Party is divided almost equally and is in a deep crisis!

  34. Morrison won’t pick a fight with the states.
    Any suggestions indicating Morrison having the intestinals to even take on SA or Tassie, let alone Anna or Mark, and certainly definitely not his own nest doesn’t know the history of Morrison’s grand backdoor entrances.
    Morrison took a polling lead into the last election with the help of public money spent on false advertising, accepting tainted monies from big business spent on false advertising and benefited greatly from the Palmer millions also spent on gullifying the hapless voters.
    Morrison has held a polling lead for about three weeks all up.
    Morrison is desperately pulling rabbits from hats to afford offending the weird mob by having to test his luck at another election.
    Morrison is destined to be remembered as the intellectually backward marketing try hard, risking the future of Australia to satisfy a P74 ego and saved by most of the state leaders from something unthinkable.
    Morrison’s impending landing will produce a similar reaction to the recent tremors in the South-East.
    There will be a thud and back to enclave of the illegal national cabinet.
    Morrison’s first words will begin” the state premiers have an obligation …………”

  35. I would think Darren Chester would be able to win an independent in East Gippsland. He probably knows people in each of the Nationals branches and therefore to get people to lay low in a campaign so the official National . Covering an electorate is hard but it is a lot easier than covering a whole state.
    Canavan would struggle to compete against the LNP and One Nation especially with Pauline being up for re-election this time.

  36. sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 7:27 pm

    The comments below yours by the likes of Snappy Tom and others clearly demonstrates that many here are opposed to any opening up and see it as a political opportunity to bash the LNP.

    Denmark, Sweden et al are fully opening up with some minor border controls.

    You guys will be gutted whenever it happens.

  37. Its good to see Scomo still trying to bully the states with no covid who are enjoying lots of freedoms.

    Its good because he’s fucking his chances at the election by doing so.

    Carry on Scomo…

  42. It is also those countries (Sweden/Denamrk) have a combination of vaccination AND wide-spread natural immunity from high rates of earlier infection.

    The LNP should be bashed for their piss poor response. This isn’t a malicious Government, it’s a fundamentally lazy one. It did the least required of it to get out of the immediate bind, and thought it was too clever by half. State government failures deserve to be raised too. But our re-opening was delayed, not because we were good global citizens or some bullshit and waited our turn, but because the Commonwealth ballsed up their critical job. None of this was a surprise. None of this was a shock. My fear, since last Christmas was the lack of political imperative to be aggrssive on vaccines would mean our lazy and reactive Government would not do what was necessary and rely on the Fortress Australia mentality to get by and hope for the best – if there was a outbreak, we were going to be woefully ill-prepared.

    Any successful re-opening will almost be in spite of the LNP, not because of them.

  44. Beemer

    My last comment to you on this subject today. If we followed anyone it’s Northern Europe with our anti discrimination laws. Not the US.

  48. jt1983 says:
    Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 8:09 pm

    “It is also those countries (Sweden/Denamrk) have a combination of vaccination AND wide-spread natural immunity from high rates of earlier infection.”

    So we should have had higher infection rates?

  49. Morrison’s plane has just crossed the coast and looks like it is bypassing Sydney (and the family) to land in Canberra.

    Good government will no doubt resume tomorrow.

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