Liberals by any other name

Electoral law changes rammed through parliament, New South Wales state boundaries finalised, and some by-election news.

Significant electoral developments of the past few days:

• The federal government’s package of four electoral bills, which were explained in this earlier post, whizzed through parliament this week with the support of Labor (UPDATE: It’s been pointed out to me that one of the four, dealing with the threshold for registering as a political campaigner, was in fact not considered). Most contentiously, this will give the Liberal Party exclusive rights to the word “liberal” in their registered party name, with the effect that the Liberal Democrats and the New Liberals will have to change names before the next election. It is unclear what the former plans to do, but Victor Kline, leader and registered officer of the New Liberals, says the party will simply identify itself as TNL.

• The new laws also mean that parties will need to have 1500 members to maintain their registration unless they have a sitting member of parliament, which by the reckoning of Kevin Bonham could affect as many of 24 out of the 45 currently registered parties. Those privy to the sitting member exemption include Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, thanks to former Liberal MP Craig Kelly’s decision join, along with the Centre Alliance, Jacqui Lambie Network, Katter’s Australian Party and Rex Patrick Team.

• The state redistribution for New South Wales has been finalised, without much change to the draft boundaries that were published last November. Antony Green has a pendulum with estimated margins for the final boundaries.

Two minor by-elections coming up:

• For the Northern Territory parliament: a by-election will be held on September 11 for the Darwin hinterland seat of Daly, where Country Liberal Party member Ian Sloan has retired due to ill health a year after an election at which Labor was returned to power. Sloan held out against Labor by 1.2% at the election, at which he succeeded retiring CLP member Gary Higgins. The CLP’s candidate is Kris Civitarese, a Barkly councillor; Labor’s is Dheran Young, a former advisor to Chief Minister Michael Gunner.

• For the Tasmanian Legislative Council: a by-election will be required for a yet-to-be determined date early next year for the seat of Huon, encompassing the southern edge of Hobart and its hinterland, after Labor member Bastian Seidel announced he would quit parliament at the final sitting for the year in December. Seidel has complained of a “toxic environment” and “obvious problems” in the party, which would appear to refer to the sexual harassment allegations against David O’Byrne, who was compelled to resign as party leader in July after just three weeks in the job and is now facing calls from within the party, including leader Rebecca White, to quit parliament.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,527 comments on “Liberals by any other name”

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  1. Yeah, it should be a lot sooner. The availability is rotten but I am just glad to get a concrete date. This is in no way a positive endorsement of Morrison or the Government’s handling of things.

  2. You’d think by this point the Coalition would have realised that it’s not a great idea to pick fights with Mark McGowan.

  3. Lib Opp leader O’Brien is a fool but typical Lib he is also working for the virus rather than Victorians.

    He is saying that Andrews is wrong to aim for zero and we shouldn’t have the lockdown. Encouraging disobedience and virus spread.

  7. Ronzy:

    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 7:08 pm

    [‘THE ACL DO NOT SPEAK FOR ME.’]

    It does, however, speak on behalf of the prayer group in Morrison’s centre/right faction, though there’s nothing centre/right about the Prime Minister – it’s a guise.

  8. The AGL bloke is just pretending to represent the Churches to make a job for himself. Frankly he’s a wanker of the first order. Remember how in the same sex arguments the Churches told AGL to back off because it didn’t speak for them.

  9. Oh look – the misery merchants are already dooming all over everything/everything. It must be exhausting.

    On Newspoll – I’d be stunned if there wasn’t some MoE movement back to the Govt. If there’s not, who am I kidding, it wouldn’t matter for the doom merchants.

  11. Vaccine rollout:

    NSW

    35.9% fully vaccinated; 66.0% first dose

    National

    34.2% fully vaccinated; 57.5% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over

    New locally acquired cases

    1218 in NSW

    1324 nationally

    Reported Aug 29 (updated 12.20pm) – SMH

  12. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 7:22 pm
    It only takes one…

    The Marin County, Calif., elementary school had been conscientious about following covid-19 protocols. Masks were required indoors, desks were spaced six feet apart, and the students kept socially distant. But the delta variant found an opening anyway.

    On May 19, one teacher, who was not vaccinated against the coronavirus, began feeling fatigued and had some nasal congestion. She dismissed it as allergies and powered through. While she was usually masked, she made an exception for story time so she could read to the class.

    By the time she learned she was positive for the coronavirus two days later, half her class of 24 had been infected — nearly all of them in the two rows closest to her desk — and the outbreak had spread to other classes, siblings and parents, including some who were fully vaccinated.

    “The mask was off only momentarily, not an entire day or hours. We want to make the point that this is not the teacher’s fault — everyone lets their guard down — but the thing is delta takes advantage of slippage from any kind of protective measures,” Tracy Lam-Hine, an epidemiologist for the county, said in an interview.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/08/28/delta-variant-unvaccinated-children-elementary-schools/
    ”

    What is “Recall ” poll numbers of Californian Governor Gavin Newsum.

  13. Mavis,

    And that is what makes me angry – from my understanding and interpretation of the bible- it is fake Christianity and our Prime Minister is a “fake” Christian.

  14. Ain’t it nice how urgency is the name of the game when ‘naice’ suburbs are under ‘threat’ . Aren’t they lucky they aren’t Aboriginal or disabled or live in the Western Suburbs.
    .
    .
    Eastern suburbs to get Pfizer jab priority as cases spread in record numbers

    Parts of Sydney’s eastern suburbs have been given priority access to Pfizer vaccines for 16 to 49-year-olds as authorities scramble to stop rising case numbers that could see COVID-19 hotspots expanded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/eastern-suburbs-to-get-pfizer-priority-as-covid-19-cases-spread-in-record-numbers-20210829-p58mxc.html

  16. [‘A Federal report into last year’s Ruby Princess disaster which unleashed COVID-19 onto Australian shores has found that critical errors were made, because of systemic problems within the Federal Department of Agriculture.

    In the report, the Commonwealth’s Inspector-General of Biosecurity found the Department of Agriculture made a number of crucial errors, including failing to follow protocols or to interview sick passengers.

    “If agriculture had administered the Traveller with Illness Checklist in the way intended, passenger disembarkation could have been appropriately managed to minimise the human health risk,” the report stated.

    “This was a crucial error.”

    “If the Acute Respiratory Diseases log had been viewed on the morning of the 19 March, it would have been noted that the log had not been updated since 17 March,” the report continued.

    “This should have prompted contact [with authorities]”

    The report also found that authorities failed to interview the ship’s master or inspect the vessel’s medical logs.

    It further found there had been years of systemic problems in the Department of Agriculture as well as missed opportunities for change, These issues had been highlighted in a 2018 internal audit of biosecurity protocols for arriving ships, and recommendations had been made for change at that time.

    The Report concluded that the likelihood of the Ruby Princess incident occurring would have been greatly reduced if the department had done what it agreed to do after the audit.

    Twenty-eight deaths and more than 600 COVID-19 cases were later recorded amongst passengers and crew.’]

    https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/governments-crucial-errors-contributed-to-ruby-princess-disaster-report-finds/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=week-36

  18. Ronzy
    Scrott’s ‘prosperity theology’ (cough) religion would be hard pressed to be less christian than they already are.

  19. Ronzy:

    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:08 pm

    Yep, nearly everything about Morrison is fake yet it appears to be working, at least with his personal indicia. I used to think the Oz electorate was more discerning.

  20. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 7:16 pm
    A Texas man who led a group of “Freedom Defenders” against mask restrictions died of COVID-19 at age 30.

    Caleb Wallace left behind three children and a pregnant wife.

    His wife, Jessica, announced her husband’s death on a GoFundMe page on Saturday, US time, that had detailed his fight with COVID-19 the past few weeks.

    “Caleb has peacefully passed on. He will forever live in our hearts and minds,” she wrote.

    Wallace had been unconscious since August 8, The San Angelo Standard-Times reported.

    Wallace helped organise “The Freedom Rally” on July 4, 2020 — a gathering described in a flier as a peaceful protest by people “sick of the government being in control of our lives,” the Standard-Times reported.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/texas-anti-mask-freedom-defender-aged-30-dies-of-covid-19-20210829-p58mw4.html

    And the ivermectin he reportedly took unsurprisingly did nothing to help him.
    ”

    Another one bites the dust. A 4th RW radio host who was antivaxxer has died of COVID-21
    ‘
    Marc Bernier is Fourth Anti-vaccine Radio Host to Die of Covid this Month’
    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2048869

    As I posted earlier Trump supporters in USA are ready to die for their cause but the Trump supporters here are not ready to do that.

  21. Kevin Bonham
    @kevinbonham
    ·
    7h
    (It’s three weeks since the last poll but I’ve not seen any clear reports of it in the field this weekend.)

  22. Richard Denniss
    @RDNS_TAI
    Doherty modelling ASSUMES #covid19 cases are evenly spread across Australia when we ‘open up’…that assumption made sense in June but not when NSW has 1000 cases per day & WA has none…it provides no evidence that its ‘safe’ for those states to open up to NSW #auspol #insiders

  24. ”
    porotisays:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:11 pm
    Ain’t it nice how urgency is the name of the game when ‘naice’ suburbs are under ‘threat’ . Aren’t they lucky they aren’t Aboriginal or disabled or live in the Western Suburbs.
    .
    .
    Eastern suburbs to get Pfizer jab priority as cases spread in record numbers

    Parts of Sydney’s eastern suburbs have been given priority access to Pfizer vaccines for 16 to 49-year-olds as authorities scramble to stop rising case numbers that could see COVID-19 hotspots expanded.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/eastern-suburbs-to-get-pfizer-priority-as-covid-19-cases-spread-in-record-numbers-20210829-p58mxc.html
    ”

    poroti
    I argued from the beginning that Eastern suburbs, North Shore and NW Sydney got priority treatment from beginning of this outbreak. But someone on this blog disagreed from the beginning.

  25. The relatively (2018) new head of the ACL is worse than the last, Lyle Shelton, who’s due to replace Nile in the NSW LC in 2023.

    [‘The Australian Christian Lobby has called on its supporters not to “fear death” and instead push state governments to end COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

    In an email to members on Friday night, managing director Martyn Iles said the coronavirus was here to stay and that he was “not afraid to face the inevitable”.

    “Christians should lead the way on this because fear of death’s a condition from which Christ has freed us,” Mr Iles wrote.

    “The truth is, we must face the virus, either sooner or later because it’s not going anywhere. But fear is ruling the day at great cost.

    “If leaders won’t start talking seriously about freedom, then it’s up to us to send them the message, we are not afraid.”

    “Fear is no basis for living. We need to have the courage to open up, and it must be no later than when everyone who wants the vaccine has had it – without coercion,” he wrote.

    Mr Iles references Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s comment this week that Australia could not “stay in a cave forever”.’]

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-christian-lobby-says-believers-should-push-for-covid-freedoms-not-fear-death-20210828-p58mqe.html

  27. ”
    Mavissays:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:19 pm
    Ronzy:

    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:08 pm

    Yep, nearly everything about Morrison is fake yet it appears to be working, at least with his personal indicia. I used to think the Oz electorate was more discerning.
    ”

    Why is working Mavis?

  28. ”
    porotisays:
    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:36 pm
    Ven

    But someone on this blog disagreed from the beginning.

    They weren’t from the Eastern Suburbs by any chance ?
    ”

    I don’t know poroti. 🙂

  30. Kellie Barnes
    @kellos
    Some UK context for concerned Australians –– For an area the size of Victoria (& pop. the size of Melbourne), with an open border to a larger neighbour more affected by #COVID19 cases, Scotland’s population is 65.1% fully vaxxed and still hitting over 3,000 cases a day.

  32. Cud Chewer

    My previous post seems to of understated the situation…

    Scotland has recorded the highest number of daily Covid cases since the pandemic began, as Nicola Sturgeon issued a plea to the UK vaccines watchdog to reach a decision on vaccination of 12- to 16-year-olds quickly.

    Announcing a new daily record of 6,835 infections – more than 1,800 above the previous highest figure on Thursday – at her regular briefing, the first minister said “we are not currently considering a circuit-breaker lockdown”.

    She said the surge in cases, which health officials believe is driven partly by the return of Scottish schools after the summer holidays, several weeks earlier than in the rest of the UK, was “cause for concern”. Scotland’s overall rate of new cases is at 431.5 per 100,000.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/27/scotland-records-highest-number-of-daily-covid-cases

  34. I am just catching up today. I see in the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/29/nsw-covid-update-1218-infections-mark-worst-day-yet-as-pressure-on-hospitals-grow) the following:

    “The [NSW] premier also vowed there would be no further lockdowns across the state once an 80% vaccination target was reached.”

    If this is accurately reported, we are in trouble. I only hope that the rest of Australia can maintain effective fire breaks and restrictions, as NSW is going to burn hot.

  35. Ven:

    Sunday, August 29, 2021 at 8:38 pm

    [‘Why is [it] working Mavis?’]

    That’s the “$64,000 Question”. There can be no doubting that Morrison’s endowed with the gift of the gab, that he play politics very well, and that he’s singularly transactional. Perhaps Labor needs to take the gloves off more, particularly re. the religion he slavishly follows, where the world is only some 6,000 years old, informing the electorate that such a fossil will do next to nothing about GW and other pressing issues that don’t accord with his highly conservative religious views. Whatever it takes, Labor must cut through lest we could have this spiv in the Lodge for another 3 years.

  36. Personally I expect that the NSW hospital system will be in crisis at the time NSW reaches Gladys’s magic 70% and even she will be able to see the disaster that will evolve if she opens up (Scotty the halfwit may not but enough around him will). If Scotty whines at WA while NSW still has thousands of cases then he can expect most of his WA MPs not to need to make another trip to Canberra post-election, and they will point that out to him.

    So all the present posturing is a moot point.

  37. Sceptic

    What’s interesting about the UK is that they are still openly talking about herd immunity, but somehow the media here have been disabused/silenced on that idea.

    The UK’s push to vaccinate 12 to 16 year olds is primarily driven by the knowledge that children do catch covid and do spread it in the community and that herd immunity is only possible with children vaccinated.

    So look at the narrative here. Here the media (and a lot of “experts”) poo-poo the idea of vaccinating children, because they start from the premise that the only reason to vaccinate children is purely as a protective measure for the children themselves, and not as measure to protect the community. That is stupid and dangerous thinking. If we give up on herd immunity (or at least getting as close to it as possible) we’re going to pay a very high price.

  38. My son’s perspective is that he really wants to get out of lockdown and back to living anormal young man’s life. BUT he blames Gladys and Scott Morrison for that, not the Labor Party for advocating for lockdowns, because GladMo got us into this situation.

  39. “Christians should lead the way on this because fear of death’s a condition from which Christ has freed us,” Mr Iles wrote.

    “The truth is, we must face the virus, either sooner or later because it’s not going anywhere. But fear is ruling the day at great cost.

    Such a self-centered and short-sighted view. However much they may welcome their own death, you’d really expect a Christian to not want to involve themselves in causing the death of others by deliberately spreading a deadly virus.

    The disconnect between that and the ethics that Christians purport(ed) to value is ridiculous. If this is the face of Christianity in 2021, they’ve let their religion become a complete joke.

  40. Attacking the PM’s religion is not the way to go. It’s not as if there isn’t plenty of other stuff to work on – the lies, the corruption, the incompetence.

  42. I have the feeling that Labor is unable to attack Morrison and his religious MPS because there are just enough Labor religious to make it awkward – even though I’m not aware of many radical
    Pentecostalists in their ranks.

  45. I fear you are correct Simon, with respect to NSW Health.

    However, while we may agree on Scott Morrison, I also do not trust Gladys Berejiklian to act in interests other than her own. Both demonstrate classic narcissism. Gaslighting is just one sign.

    Both have made horrendous decisions that have resulted in the deaths of Australians. Far more than any pink batt beat-up. In fact, more lives have been lost now than participation in the Korean and Vietnam Wars combined.

  48. Griff

    “If this is accurately reported, we are in trouble. I only hope that the rest of Australia can maintain effective fire breaks and restrictions, as NSW is going to burn hot.”

    She might say that, but she’s also giving herself an escape clause by saying “it depends on cases”. I think she (and quite possibly Kerry) actually believe that vaccination will start to flatten the rise in cases by the end of September and that will give them the excuse to ease restrictions. I think they’re wrong.

    But the question is, when the data starts to show it aint happening, what is Gladys going to do? I don’t think she is quite that stupid to not know that substantial easings will take thousands of cases into the tens of thousands. And if she is that stupid, the results (lots of news stories about hospitals in crisis) isn’t going to look good for her or Scomo. In other words, she’ll stall and hand out more inconsequential trinkets.

    By then, riots in Pitt Street.

    I think they’ve talked themselves into a bubble and I’m sure Gladys really doesn’t have the intellect to understand the math herself. I also think that there are a lot of “experts” willing to downplay the extent to which children contribute to rapid spread across communities.

  49. People seem to be forgetting, what would happen to the Australian economy if WA opened up. Considering WA exports make up 46% of export income to Australia, if this was lost Australian would be in serious trouble. WA a trade surplus of $112B. Keep WA closed – shows what fools that Morrison and Frydenberg are. I live in NSW and understand how important WA is. Australia cannot afford COVID in WA.

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